How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Zeleban is not a Russian troll. I have been following his posts for over a year and he seems like a really honest guy who just says what he thinks. I do not agree with a few things he said in the last few pages but in the grand scheme of things lets not forget he is actually living in Ukraine right now.

He sees this war in a way us who just follow it on the Internet cannot, so lets give him a break for passionately voicing his opinions even if we do not agree with some of those opinions.

Ya, I gotta agree.  His track record would make him one helluva deep plant if we is working Russian side. 

No, I think we got a guy who is just wrung out and really tired of being tired, and scared all the time.  I mean from his viewpoint maybe it is all doom and gloom.  We do need to keep trying to use and source facts though.  This cannot simply become an opinion pulpit.  In fact if he has corroboration I would very much like to see it.  We do need to accept that if Russia has a breaking point then Ukraine has one too.  I am not seeing it but he definitely is - I am just not sure how he got there.  

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Zeleban is not a Russian troll. I have been following his posts for over a year and he seems like a really honest guy who just says what he thinks. I do not agree with a few things he said in the last few pages but in the grand scheme of things lets not forget he is actually living in Ukraine right now.

He sees this war in a way us who just follow it on the Internet cannot, so lets give him a break for passionately voicing his opinions even if we do not agree with some of those opinions.

I started out with that approach but he's gone way past talking about Ukrainian internal conditions and options right into the kinds of things that Russian agitprop churns out. Saying things like "What would be the difference if Ukraine capitulated by the end of the year?" is frankly defeatist and disingenuous at best considering what we know Russian plans are if it wins. And his descriptions of American politics, intentions and capabilities also track quite well with Russian propaganda intended to drive down support to defend Ukraine. 

I don't know if he's a troll, a Russian propagandist or someone who has been inadvertently convinced by Russia propaganda and I don't really care. We should call it what it is.

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm no expert on your legal system but it seems you might be wrong here.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigation-conviction.html

Legally, Mr. Trump would remain eligible to be president even if he were imprisoned. The Constitution says nothing to the contrary.

Fun fact, if he was elected while in prison:

On the federal charges only, he could also try to pardon himself — or to commute his sentence, leaving his conviction in place but ending his imprisonment.

 

You are correct. Trump can certainly run from jail. But commuting or pardoning himself likely doesn't get past the Supreme Court so it would be an unprecedented mess. Just like last time. 

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Saying things like "What would be the difference if Ukraine capitulated by the end of the year?" is frankly defeatist and disingenuous at best considering what we know Russian plans are if it wins

 

Oh my God! Well, why do people located thousands of kilometers from my country think that they know about the state of affairs in my country better than me? 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

You are correct. Trump can certainly run from jail. But commuting or pardoning himself likely doesn't get past the Supreme Court so it would be an unprecedented mess. Just like last time.

Oh my God.  Is it terrible that I want this to happen?  I mean worst/best sit-com idea ever.

Edited November 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

Just now, Zeleban said:

 

Oh my God! Well, why do people located thousands of kilometers from my country think that they know about the state of affairs in my country better than me? 

It's a matter of public record what the Russians have done and what they planned to do when they won. Also...you do remember your numerous posts above claiming expertise on American military power, public opinion and politics? 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh my God.  Is it terrible that I want this to happen?  I mean worst/best sit-com idea ever.

Had a drink with a DC lawyer and we discussed this at length.

It's pretty clear that outside of two Justices, the SC simply will not allow a President to commute his own sentence or pardon himself because it's about as fundamental to jurisprudence as it gets that one cannot judge one's own case. If it's a state level case, the SC might say that he cannot be held in a state penitentiary while he is in office. In a Federal prison, Trump would start ordering people to release him and right away you have a Constitutional crisis.  

We then had six more drinks.

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's a matter of public record what the Russians have done and what they planned to do when they won. Also...you do remember your numerous posts above claiming expertise on American military power, public opinion and politics? 

 

Well, the problems of the United States have been lying on the surface for several years now. And recently it has become especially aggravated

[Butschi]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For example, not being able to perform the duties of elected office.

This could even work in Trump's favour. From the same article as before:

In practice, the election of an incarcerated president would create a legal crisis that would almost certainly need to be resolved by the courts.

In theory, Mr. Trump could be stripped of his authority under the 25th Amendment, which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” But that would require the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare Mr. Trump unable to fulfill his duties, a remote prospect given that these would be loyalists appointed by Mr. Trump himself.

More likely, Mr. Trump could sue to be released on the basis that his imprisonment was preventing him from fulfilling his constitutional obligations as president. Such a case would probably focus on the separation of powers, with Mr. Trump’s lawyers arguing that keeping a duly elected president in prison would be an infringement by the judicial branch on the operations of the executive branch.

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The polls suggest a large percentage of those predisposed towards voting for Trump would not do so if he were convicted of a felony, not to mention imprisoned because of one.

This is my hope. All this legal stuff should be a last line of defence, anyway.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Butschi

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

 

Well, the problems of the United States have been lying on the surface for several years now. And recently it has become especially aggravated

Oh my God! Well, why do people located thousands of kilometers from my country think... 

[Harmon Rabb]

Clever, the renamed TV channels are like the icing on the cake.

[Zeleban]

 

[kimbosbread]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh my God.  Is it terrible that I want this to happen?  I mean worst/best sit-com idea ever.

Maybe he’ll break out of jail and run off to North Korea. The entertainment factor of having our president hiding from his own government in another country would be off the charts.

[Letter from Prague]

14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Again? Wait not, it's two months old.

[Letter from Prague]

16 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Maybe he’ll break out of jail and run off to North Korea. The entertainment factor of having our president hiding from his own government in another country would be off the charts.

Would the secret service hunt him or protect him? We won't know until the fateful day ...

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It seems Vucic will have to make...what, 4th or 5th "most difficult decision in his life" to withdraw troops, counting only last two years.

So Marx corrected Hegel that "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce", but what he knew about Balkans?

[TheVulture]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Again? Wait not, it's two months old.

Yeah, old news. Serbia stood those forces down a few days later, and the NATO forces in Kosovo received some extra troops (nothing significant, mostly just a token increase so signal a willingness to not back down).

[JonS]

28 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Run off to North Korea...

... in Air Force 1, for extra comedy gold.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

Oh my God! Well, why do people located thousands of kilometers from my country think that they know about the state of affairs in my country better than me? 

Pal, sometime when I read your last posts I recall Denetor, who looked at palantir during a siege of Minas-Tirith %) Of course, we had very hard year and broken hopes, but I not shure that all go to complete bad scenario. What I fully agree - when Russia asks "Iran, give me 1000 Shakeds!", Iran answers "here you are!", when Russian asks N.Korea "Kim, give me 10000000 shells", N.Korea (China) answers "Here you are". But when Ukraine asks "Allies! Give me... Patriots, Leos, Abrams, shells" aliies answer "well, we will support you till the end! But... we need to gather Ramstein through two months, conduct discussions, discuss all pro- and contra... And memento escalation of course" 

And only small Denmark silently says "Psss... I heard you need arty? We have some cool stuff. Take all wahat we have. We anyway will not make war with Norway or Germany"

Edited November 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

American support for Russia is much more than 9%, and recently it has only been growing.

I'd like to pick up on this point.

Conducting surveys is tricky, and there are any number of ways to deliberately or inadvertently skew the results of one.

That said, Gallup is a professional organisation, which produces generally reliable survey results (see for example 538's pollster ratings).

If there is a specific reason to reject Gallups results - beyond 'I disagree with this' or 'all polling companies are wrong/biased/shills' - then we can have that discussion in order to retain some kind of shared perception of reality.

But just rejecting information that doesn't fit your world view isnt helpful or healthy.

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

 

[Anthony P.]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's a matter of public record what the Russians have done and what they planned to do when they won. Also...you do remember your numerous posts above claiming expertise on American military power, public opinion and politics? 

There were people who got sufficiently fed up with the war in the UK, US, Canada, etc. during WW2 that they argued for everything from outright surrender to committing mutiny when facing the prospect of overseas service (Canadian draft/overseas service riots/mutiny in late '44, even when the war was both being won and the Holocaust was being uncovered)... so while I wouldn't agree with @Zeleban's attitude, I very much understand why someone from a country which has suffered immensely more than either of those states, and which is by no means facing an imminent victory would have reason to be pessimistic, especially in days like these when American and European military support has been held up for a fairly long time, and even at best won't meet its goals even by half (read: the European promise of 1 million artillery shells by March 2024).

It's easy for us to be optimistic about a war which we're not having to suffer.

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

It may very well be. Western companies can no longer bear the losses caused by the lack of trade with Russia. I am confident that the trade aspirations of the West will be much faster and more efficient than the military ones, and soon after the capitulation of Ukraine the West will resume trade with Putin

Russia was on place 23 as a trade partner to Germany, snug between Brazil & India. If it weren't for the unholy dependency on Russian gas, we wouldn't have noticed if it had vanished from earth. That dependency is a thing of the past and will never come back, even if Russia would retreat tomorrow and hung up rainbow flags on the Kremlin.

Will Germany start to trade with Russia after this war is over, and all deeds are paid? Yes, of course. Does it matter? No, because the amount of money behind that effort is way too small for any political influence.

Btw, there will be WAY more money being made rebuilding Ukraine than trading with Russia. So much machinery & infrastructure has been destroyed and needs to be rebuilt. Germany will give vast amounts of debt guarantees, so Ukrainian companies can buy from German companies all the stuff they need to rebuild. That is where the money will be made. There's probably quite some bankers who are already salivating about this.

[Zeleban]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Pal, sometime when I read your last posts I recall Denetor, who looked at palantir during a siege of Minas-Tirith %) Of course, we had very hard year and broken hopes, but I not shure that all go to complete bad scenario. What I fully agree - when Russia asks "Iran, give me 1000 Shakeds!", Iran answers "here you are!", when Russian asks N.Korea "Kim, give me 10000000 shells", N.Korea (China) answers "Here you are". But when Ukraine asks "Allies! Give me... Patriots, Leos, Abrams, shells" aliies answer "well, we will support you till the end! But... we need to gather Ramstein through two months, conduct discussions, discuss all pro- and contra... And memento escalation of course" 

And only small Denmark silently says "Psss... I heard you need arty? We have some cool stuff. Take all wahat we have. We anyway will not make war with Norway or Germany"

And who do you think will go to war? Those people who are ready to riot because they are being served with summonses, or the people who try to cross the Danube every day on $5,000 air mattresses in an attempt to escape to the west. This is not the first time that military personnel from the front line have declared that they do not have the moral strength to fight, so who will replace them? I'm not even talking about the morale of the population in the rear. I can only say that none of those I know want to fight. They declare that let the children of deputies go to the front instead of them and other similar populist nonsense.

 

If you know of any reasons for optimism, then name them. Because I don't see such reasons. Not a trace remained of the brave and unshakable people that I saw at the beginning of the war. Now it's a bunch of self-interested nobodies screaming hysterically at each other.

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Meanwile, let's prepare the ceremonial peace pipe as real Indians do...by communally watching dirty movies:

So some war porn is instructive.  Again, slaughterbots.   Also, the drone operator has the personality of a cat playing with its food.  Good or bad is an exercise for the reader - and here's a really good thought experiment: when this is done autonomously, should the AI play with its food as well for purposes of Schrecklichkeit? 

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Trump says a lot of things[...] Regarding NATO, assuming he is elected, it seems highly unlikely he would leave NATO. 

He uses bull-in-a-china-shop tactics to get results, sometimes it works (often not).  On NATO, he was saying the obvious: most of the free world, including my country, free rides on the US taxpayer. I think his various threats were a way to scare other states into stepping up (at least I hope so).
Result: NATO defense spending as a share of GDP 2023 | Statista

Looks like the bluster did have the desired (or a desirable) effect.  Hard to be sure, but the chart is persuasive, as he was inaugurated in Jan 2017.