How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

the toxic nationalism that tore Europe apart twice in the last 120 years and is tearing up Ukraine today. 

Damn controversial statement. I thought that you read my post that 90% of Ukrainians don’t care about this war and that they are neither patriots of their country nor even more so nationalists. If they are occupied by Russians, they will consider themselves Russians. If they are occupied by Poles, they will call themselves Poles. If they are occupied by the Chinese, they will gladly call themselves Chinese. What makes you think that nationalism is tearing up Ukraine today? Constant reading of Putin's propaganda?

By the way, your statement is not so far from the truth, if you look at things from the perspective of the volume of cooperation between your countries and the parties to this conflict. The volume of supplies of Western equipment to Russia does not allow me to doubt the true sympathies of the Europeans. They are definitely on the side of Russian anti-fascists. Don't worry, I'm sure that the vile nationalist state called Ukraine will soon be finished.

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Damn controversial statement. I thought that you read my post that 90% of Ukrainians don’t care about this war and that they are neither patriots of their country nor even more so nationalists

Then why is it that Ukraine a) resisted Russia's invasion so thoroughly and b) continues to successfully keep it from taking over the country?  If Ukraine can do that with 10% support for this war, then I suppose with 15% you'd be in Moscow by Spring, and with 20% replacing the EU as the dominant power in Europe.

Look, I don't doubt that the majority of your circles of friends/family border on apathetic.  I doubt they were that way in March of 2022 when Russian forces were bearing down their homes.  If they were, I think they would be counting themselves as Russians right now.

30 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

By the way, your statement is not so far from the truth, if you look at things from the perspective of the volume of cooperation between your countries and the parties to this conflict.

When I look at the actions of the West, collectively, I see far more pain and sacrifice in supporting Ukraine than benefit from the continued support for Russia.  Could it be better?  Absolutely.  Can you name me ANYTHING that Western governments do, individually or collectively, that isn't contradictory to what it says and what the majority of people want?  I can't think of a single thing.  So why do you think support for Ukraine and punishment of Russia should be some magical exception?

Supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia is massively expensive.  The costs of confronting Russia is exactly why the West did such a half arsed job in 2014/2015 and a no-arsed job confronting it about Georgia or what it is doing to Africa and the Middle East.  The fact is that if the West really put its short term economic self interests ahead of its long term political interests, Ukraine would receive no support at all.  Fortunately for Ukraine, and the West long term, there is sufficient political will to confront Russia and support Ukraine, even if imperfectly.

30 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

The volume of supplies of Western equipment to Russia does not allow me to doubt the true sympathies of the Europeans.

The corruption of governmental policy to benefit selfish financial interests has nothing to do with the sympathies of the people of any nation.  How do you think we got ourselves to the point where our species has a pretty good chance of ceasing to exist?  Because corporations and governments acted in the best interests of the people? 

30 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Don't worry, I'm sure that the vile nationalist state called Ukraine will soon be finished.

Ukraine has problems like all other nations.  I don't see why it is beyond criticism when so many other countries have their failings criticized.  Including you being critical of the countries that are helping your country survive.

Steve

[Carolus]

A lot of potential hurt if they can overcome or avoid EW. As one Ukrainian drone pilot said, both kamikaze and bomber types are more cost effective than light mortar rounds due to the immediate feedback and fire correction.

 

 

Some Russians believe NATO has the weather control superpower. They played too much Command&Conquer and too little Combat Mission, luckily.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Carolus

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Then why is it that Ukraine a) resisted Russia's invasion so thoroughly and b) continues to successfully keep it from taking over the country?  If Ukraine can do that with 10% support for this war, then I suppose with 15% you'd be in Moscow by Spring, and with 20% replacing the EU as the dominant power in Europe.

Look, I don't doubt that the majority of your circles of friends/family border on apathetic.  I doubt they were that way in March of 2022 when Russian forces were bearing down their homes.  If they were, I think they would be counting themselves as Russians right now.

When I look at the actions of the West, collectively, I see far more pain and sacrifice in supporting Ukraine than benefit from the continued support for Russia.  Could it be better?  Absolutely.  Can you name me ANYTHING that Western governments do, individually or collectively, that isn't contradictory to what it says and what the majority of people want?  I can't think of a single thing.  So why do you think support for Ukraine and punishment of Russia should be some magical exception?

Supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia is massively expensive.  The costs of confronting Russia is exactly why the West did such a half arsed job in 2014/2015 and a no-arsed job confronting it about Georgia or what it is doing to Africa and the Middle East.  The fact is that if the West really put its short term economic self interests ahead of its long term political interests, Ukraine would receive no support at all.  Fortunately for Ukraine, and the West long term, there is sufficient political will to confront Russia and support Ukraine, even if imperfectly.

The corruption of governmental policy to benefit selfish financial interests has nothing to do with the sympathies of the people of any nation.  How do you think we got ourselves to the point where our species has a pretty good chance of ceasing to exist?  Because corporations and governments acted in the best interests of the people? 

Ukraine has problems like all other nations.  I don't see why it is beyond criticism when so many other countries have their failings criticized.  Including you being critical of the countries that are helping your country survive.

Steve

Forget it Steve.  When a guy starts sounding like this only thing left to do is get him off the line and get him a job in the rear, or send him home.

On the Russian economy:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/#:~:text=The Russian economy is shrinking&text=It is estimated that in,growth in 2023 (0.7%).
 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165

(Anyone got insight on this “Moscow Times” site?)

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Damn controversial statement. I thought that you read my post that 90% of Ukrainians don’t care about this war and that they are neither patriots of their country nor even more so nationalists. If they are occupied by Russians, they will consider themselves Russians. If they are occupied by Poles, they will call themselves Poles. If they are occupied by the Chinese, they will gladly call themselves Chinese. What makes you think that nationalism is tearing up Ukraine today? Constant reading of Putin's propaganda?

By the way, your statement is not so far from the truth, if you look at things from the perspective of the volume of cooperation between your countries and the parties to this conflict. The volume of supplies of Western equipment to Russia does not allow me to doubt the true sympathies of the Europeans. They are definitely on the side of Russian anti-fascists. Don't worry, I'm sure that the vile nationalist state called Ukraine will soon be finished.

I did not read your post and now that I know the content can say that the evidence strongly suggests it isn't true. Underdogs in wars of this nature don't succeed to the degree Ukraine has if there isn't a broad societal commitment to win. Further, if you don't understand the point about nationalism and conflict in Europe  I would suggest starting with that fracas between France and Prussia in 1871, then 1914 and then 1939. 

As to the rest, I make a distinction between Ukrainian patriotism and the sort of "defenders of Christendom" nationalism spewed by Putin, Orban and unfortunately others. YMMV.

 

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Forget it Steve.  When a guy starts sounding like this only thing left to do is get him off the line and get him a job in the rear, or send him home.

On the Russian economy:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/#:~:text=The Russian economy is shrinking&text=It is estimated that in,growth in 2023 (0.7%).
 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165

(Anyone got insight on this “Moscow Times” site?)

Moscow Times is a dissident publication that is now based in Amsterdam (I believe). I would describe them as broadly dependable with all the usual caveats. 

[hcrof]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Moscow Times is a dissident publication that is now based in Amsterdam (I believe). I would describe them as broadly dependable with all the usual caveats. 

Agreed but that author (Aslund) lives in copium land IMO. He has not got a great track record of predicting the Russians are gonna collapse any day now, and I label him as a propagandist more than a serious journalist. 

[billbindc]

17 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Agreed but that author (Aslund) lives in copium land IMO. He has not got a great track record of predicting the Russians are gonna collapse any day now, and I label him as a propagandist more than a serious journalist. 

Ah...I didn't realize it was Aslund. Agree. 

[The_Capt]

43 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Agreed but that author (Aslund) lives in copium land IMO. He has not got a great track record of predicting the Russians are gonna collapse any day now, and I label him as a propagandist more than a serious journalist. 

Ok, anyone have insight on the numbers he is throwing around?  The inability to borrow rings true.  What is the impact of only being able to borrow from China?  

[Zeleban]

47 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Underdogs in wars of this nature don't succeed to the degree Ukraine has if there isn't a broad societal commitment to win.

nothing like this. The tenacity with which the Ukrainians fought at the beginning of the war was caused by their reluctance to share household appliances with Russian soldiers. We all remember this total looting of Russian soldiers at the beginning of the war. Ukrainians were shocked by the fact that they would have to give away the washing machine they had been saving money for for so long. This caused a sharp influx of people into military registration and enlistment offices.

Now we have much more important questions. For example, who is to blame for the failure of the summer offensive, Zelensky or Zaluzhny? For some reason, most Ukrainians think that Zelensky is to blame for the failure. Fools, do they really think that Zelensky was planning a combined arms operation? or that Zelensky, being essentially a civilian, could choose the direction of attack? Of course, the planning of this failed operation, as well as the strategy as a whole, was carried out by the General Staff

 

Also from the latter, a deputy from Zelensky’s party accused Zaluzhny of not having a strategy for 2024. They immediately began to blame her from all sides. Perhaps they think that our General Staff really has an adequate plan for next year

[Zeleban]

I also share with you the latest trends in the Ukrainian army. From the very beginning of the war, giving bribes to the medical board in order to be recognized as unfit to fight has become increasingly popular among soldiers who fought. They simply mentally cannot withstand this war. One of these guys describes that his daughter was born when he just went to war and since then he has only seen her in photographs. I don’t think it’s worth reminding you that there is simply no one to replace these guys.

And one more fact. I think you noticed that most Ukrainian soldiers at the front have an average age of about 40 years. Now there is a very active growing dissatisfaction among older soldiers that young people are not going to go to war. And in this they are absolutely right. Our youth are mentally much closer to Westerners than men 40-50 years old who were born and raised in the USSR. For them, Ukraine is a corrupt, backward state, for which it is not worth shedding their blood

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Zeleban]

 

It looks like Ukraine will be left without ammunition this winter. I think there is no need to remind you of the consequences of this. Especially considering the ever-increasing onslaught of Russians in almost all directions

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It looks like Ukraine will be left without ammunition this winter. I think there is no need to remind you of the consequences of this. Especially considering the ever-increasing onslaught of Russians in almost all directions

This is a very real danger and it will be an enormous struggle to avoid this outcome in the US House and Senate for the next few months. Which is perhaps a reason to avoid snark, defeatism and the sort of toxic propaganda Russia employs in order to not provide opponents of aid political ammunition to stop it.

[quakerparrot67]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:15 AM, The_Capt said:

Or giant curvaceous legs in fishnet stockings to distract the Russian operators.

i recommend that ukraine hire terry gilliam to get on that right away.

 

cheers,

rob

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This is a very real danger and it will be an enormous struggle to avoid this outcome in the US House and Senate for the next few months. Which is perhaps a reason to avoid snark, defeatism and the sort of toxic propaganda Russia employs in order to not provide opponents of aid political ammunition to stop it.

 

This is not propaganda. This is reality. My bet is that it will all be over before the new year. A peace treaty will be signed on Moscow's terms. If this does not happen, the Ukrainian army will fall towards the end of winter due to a total shortage of ammunition, internal strife, and the complete apathy of the Ukrainian population

[billbindc]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, anyone have insight on the numbers he is throwing around?  The inability to borrow rings true.  What is the impact of only being able to borrow from China?  

I have some quibbles with the adjectives and the broader takes but the numbers are accurate. For instance, he talks about the value of the ruble but doesn't mention something very important...that a lot of Russian spending is designed to buttress the ruble for political reasons. Put more globally, Russia is spending a lot of make the economy look reasonably healthy but there's a limit to how long that can go on. So, Putin has challenges and resources but the resources are getting stretched and the challenges are becoming more acute. The question that nobody really knows is which challenge will become critical when. 

[The_Capt]

Just now, Zeleban said:

 

This is not propaganda. This is reality. My bet is that it will all be over before the new year. A peace treaty will be signed on Moscow's terms. If this does not happen, the Ukrainian army will fall towards the end of winter due to a total shortage of ammunition, internal strife, and the complete apathy of the Ukrainian population

You forgot frogs.  These things always come with frogs falling from the sky.  Well every forum needs a guy with the cardboard sign portending “The End is Nigh”…

[billbindc]

On 11/24/2023 at 10:08 AM, Zeleban said:

I have always remained quite optimistic in my views on this war. What I described in the post above did not arise out of nowhere, but as a result of communication with my friends

Uh huh. Sure. Ok.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

I have some quibbles with the adjectives and the broader takes but the numbers are accurate. For instance, he talks about the value of the ruble but doesn't mention something very important...that a lot of Russian spending is designed to buttress the ruble for political reasons. Put more globally, Russia is spending a lot of make the economy look reasonably healthy but there's a limit to how long that can go on. So, Putin has challenges and resources but the resources are getting stretched and the challenges are becoming more acute. The question that nobody really knows is which challenge will become critical when. 

My sense is that the sanctions are a long game.  The real question is “can we keep them up?” Once this war ends we cannot simply renormalize with Russia until some conditions are met.  But there will be money pressure to give in.

[Zeleban]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You forgot frogs.  These things always come with frogs falling from the sky.  Well every forum needs a guy with the cardboard sign portending “The End is Nigh”…

HAHAHA

[Zeleban]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You forgot frogs.  These things always come with frogs falling from the sky.  Well every forum needs a guy with the cardboard sign portending “The End is Nigh”…

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

HAHAHA

Aw, there is that smile that can light up a room.

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

My sense is that the sanctions are a long game.  The real question is “can we keep them up?” Once this war ends we cannot simply renormalize with Russia until some conditions are met.  But there will be money pressure to give in.

My sense is that there will be a sanctions regime on Russia more or less permanently at least when it comes to the US. It will not be as stringent as now but business as usual is done for a generation. The strategic implications of trade with Russia have been made quite clear to Europeans and Moscow doesn't have anything like Beijing's leverage. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My sense is that there will be a sanctions regime on Russia more or less permanently at least when it comes to the US. It will not be as stringent as now but business as usual is done for a generation. The strategic implications of trade with Russia have been made quite clear to Europeans and Moscow doesn't have anything like Beijing's leverage. 

Yep, looks like compress and contain are on the menu for Russia.  Not a bad strategy, worked in the Cold War.  Holds the fort down in Europe and then focus on the Pacific seems to be the play.  Oh and try and forget the MENA, it was all a bad dream.