How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

19 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

Missile got GPS jammed?

 

very unlikely. Storm Shadow has a fully autonomous inertial guidance system with GPS correction and Terrain Profile Matching. thermal imaging guidance on the final leg of the flight. The head captures the heat-contrasting contours of the target. An electronic warfare system can only reduce the accuracy of a missile by suppressing GPS.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Zeleban

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

very unlikely. Storm Shadow has a fully autonomous inertial guidance system with GPS correction and Terrain Profile Matching. thermal imaging guidance on the final leg of the flight. The head captures the heat-contrasting contours of the target. An electronic warfare system can only reduce the accuracy of a missile by suppressing GPS.

I think it actually hit the vehicle he was closest too, or near enough, anyway.

Edited November 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

New video of upgraded Lancet attacking Bradley in side hull probably with EFP type HEAT, but no visible effect after the strike 

 

Still not convinced this is anything other than a normal Lancet.  Looks like it smashed right into the ERA.  I do agree that, unlike the last one, there's a good chance the vehicle is still largely intact.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

M882 ARV resqued from battlefield damaged Bradley. Likely this was under fire, because M882 got some fragments at side hull. But crew completed own mission - Bradley soon will be in "hospital" and return to beat Ruissians again. 

In previous days in Stepove area near Avdivka five Bradleys were damaged.

 

I wonder why the ramp door is missing.  Doesn't look like it was blown off while closed.  External stowage doors are also missing.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yeah this is all completely unconvincing.

Except…except…politics doesn’t care! Especially in the USA. And especially so among the anti Ukraine, Pro Putin crowd.
Note: look how adamantly the Republican House is already about severing Ukraine from emergency military funding requests, as well as short term funding to keep the government functioning - while including Israel. Instead of both. 

Edited November 11, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We have seen extensive use of nets and chain link fencing around artillery positions, in particular.  They do work, provided there's no gaps.  We've all seen how nimble drones can be when they want to.

The counter to the nets is pretty simple.  Existing grenade based kamikaze drones that are controller detonated.  Fly one of those into the net, detonate, and chances are there's now a big hole in the net for a FPV drone to sail right through.  Wouldn't even have to be immediately following as it would take the crew some time to patch the gap.  Especially if they took casualties when the grenade detonated. 

In fact, the breaching grenade could damage critical systems on whatever is being protected, such as tires, hydraulic lines, optics, sensors, etc.  Might not put whatever it is out of action for long, but the disruption could be critical to some sort of tactical action.

Steve

I think there was such example when Ukrainians fly into tunnel under Antonovsky Bridge back in a day. First drone hit the partly-covered entrance, second flew straight into the tunnel where armour was hidden. It was high-priority mission, though that demands good precision and allocation of resources.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I think there was such example when Ukrainians fly into tunnel under Antonovsky Bridge back in a day. First drone hit the partly-covered entrance, second flew straight into the tunnel where armour was hidden. It was high-priority mission, though that demands good precision and allocation of resources.

In terms of simple AI, or barely even AI, programming two or three drones to play follow the leader is about as simple as it gets. This is unconfirmed but supposedly Hezbollah managed to take out a Merkava by firing two Kornets one second apart on the same laser, Trophy system couldn't see the second missile thru the debris of the first one.

Edited November 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Harmon Rabb]

British NAFO fellas earning their hard earned CIA money.

"The Company" appreciates your service.

Never change guys.

 

[JonS]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Trying to get ten thousand shotguns into the field and keep them there means something else has to give...so what do you want to lose?  Driver training, fieldcraft?  ...  Ten thousand automatic shotguns are going to create logistical burdens to keep in the field, where is that coming from.

Plus, of course, the PBI have to carry the bloody things. As well as their Javs/NLAWs. And their body armour. And water. And radios. And personal weapons. And NVG. And ammo, plus the ammo for this new wunderwaffen. And a ****load of batteries for everything. And e-tool. And food. And med stuff. And, and, and.

All that **** is heavy, yo. Adding more **** is not a free ride.

Edited November 12, 2023 by JonS

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The counter to the nets is pretty simple.  Existing grenade based kamikaze drones that are controller detonated.  Fly one of those into the net, detonate, and chances are there's now a big hole in the net for a FPV drone to sail right through.

Nets are pretty resilient though - because of their inherent flexibility in 3D-space it's hard to reliably cut wires/strings with explosives (see: British artillery floundering around in WWI trying to figure out how to reliably cut barbed wire entanglements) and you only need a couple of strands to survive to make a hole un-navigable to a drone.

If instead of an old barracuda cam net you started using a spec-built 'anti-drone net', with braided carbon fibre threads - or heck even just braided thin wires - now you're talking.

This is hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

Deform? Yes, easy.

Cut some of the wires? Of course.

Cut enough wires to fly a drone through the resulting gap?...

 

 

And something like this is REALLY hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by JonS

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Nets are pretty resilient though - because of their inherent flexibility in 3D-space it's hard to reliably cut wires/strings with explosives (see: British artillery floundering around in WWI trying to figure out how to reliably cut barbed wire entanglements) and you only need a couple of strands to survive to make a hole un-navigable to a drone.

If instead of an old barracuda cam net you started using a spec-built 'anti-drone net', with braided carbon fibre threads - or heck even just braided thin wires - now you're talking.

This is hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

Deform? Yes, easy.

Cut some of the wires? Of course.

Cut enough wires to fly a drone through the resulting gap?...

 

 

And the net doesn't even need to be connected across spans to foul a propeller - there just needs to be a bunch of threads hanging down that can get wrapped around the axle as it spins.  So you really have to make an actual hole through the net - you can't just cut a bunch of junctions like a raccoon cutting through deer fence.

[dan/california]

Murz seems to think the Russians are running extremely short of rope, and pretty much everything else.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

Nets are pretty resilient though - because of their inherent flexibility in 3D-space it's hard to reliably cut wires/strings with explosives (see: British artillery floundering around in WWI trying to figure out how to reliably cut barbed wire entanglements) and you only need a couple of strands to survive to make a hole un-navigable to a drone.

If instead of an old barracuda cam net you started using a spec-built 'anti-drone net', with braided carbon fibre threads - or heck even just braided thin wires - now you're talking.

This is hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

Deform? Yes, easy.

Cut some of the wires? Of course.

Cut enough wires to fly a drone through the resulting gap?...

 

 

And something like this is REALLY hard to reliably fully cut with an explosion and frag:

 

All good points.  Yes, it would be possible to create a net that would, though damaged, still practically keep out a second drone.  And a third, and probably a fourth.

However, the problem I raised at the end of my previous post remains.  The further away netting is from the thing is protecting means an exponential increase in the amount of netting and (worse) advertising that something worth hitting with a PGM is somewhere in the middle.  No netting is going to stop a GMLRS rocket, a glide bomb, or even a 155 round.  This means the netting needs to be kept physically close to what it is protecting and that's a problem a drone could be modified to exploit.

We just saw some claims (Russians, so pinch of salt) where a Lancet can kinda transform itself into sorta EFP or mimic a tandem warhead, whichever analogy you wish to use.  The result is deliberately focusing its energy forward ahead of itself.  Fly one of these things into a net and guess what happens?  A lot of energy successfully getting inside the perimeter and potentially damaging/destroying whatever is there.  Especially if there is a stack of live munitions present.

Or we could see something easily developed where there's a shaped canister round at the front of a suicide drone.  Drone hits, detonates, spews ball bearings for many meters straight forward.  Or any number of other things that can be almost taken off the shelf and deployed within days.

The counter to this is to have whatever is inside the nets be armored.  Or armored panels set up.  Which is, of course, theoretically possible for some installations.  Not artillery.  I just posted a report that shows the containing shock waves creates TBI cases amongst the crew.  No bueno.

The bottomline line I see right now is that just about any counter drone concept that is capable of being deployed in the near future has two ways for a drone to defeat it already sitting on the shelf.  Or the counter concept is too impractical or limited that it's not worth pursuing.

Not good times for either side in this war.

Steve

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

All good points.  Yes, it would be possible to create a net that would, though damaged, still practically keep out a second drone.  And a third, and probably a fourth.

However, the problem I raised at the end of my previous post remains.  The further away netting is from the thing is protecting means an exponential increase in the amount of netting and (worse) advertising that something worth hitting with a PGM is somewhere in the middle.  No netting is going to stop a GMLRS rocket, a glide bomb, or even a 155 round.  This means the netting needs to be kept physically close to what it is protecting and that's a problem a drone could be modified to exploit.

We just saw some claims (Russians, so pinch of salt) where a Lancet can kinda transform itself into sorta EFP or mimic a tandem warhead, whichever analogy you wish to use.  The result is deliberately focusing its energy forward ahead of itself.  Fly one of these things into a net and guess what happens?  A lot of energy successfully getting inside the perimeter and potentially damaging/destroying whatever is there.  Especially if there is a stack of live munitions present.

Or we could see something easily developed where there's a shaped canister round at the front of a suicide drone.  Drone hits, detonates, spews ball bearings for many meters straight forward.  Or any number of other things that can be almost taken off the shelf and deployed within days.

The counter to this is to have whatever is inside the nets be armored.  Or armored panels set up.  Which is, of course, theoretically possible for some installations.  Not artillery.  I just posted a report that shows the containing shock waves creates TBI cases amongst the crew.  No bueno.

The bottomline line I see right now is that just about any counter drone concept that is capable of being deployed in the near future has two ways for a drone to defeat it already sitting on the shelf.  Or the counter concept is too impractical or limited that it's not worth pursuing.

Not good times for either side in this war.

Steve

The real solution to the TBI problem is Self propelled guns, isn't it? You just need something solid between the crew and the muzzle blast.

 

[chrisl]

This one fires the net from a moderate distance, but it could almost as easily be deployed hanging from the anti-drone and dragged over the target to take it down (either casting the net free or going down with it).  Use it with an RF sensor to home in on and take down FO drones - they have to be radiating kinda loud to send back real time video.

 

[Kinophile]

9 hours ago, chrisl said:

Plus the aliens have to travel really, really, really far, so it's a major pain to bring a lot of mass.

There was a paper in PNAS (open sources, so anybody can read it) a couple years ago that estimated that the total mass of coronavirus at the time (around peak pandemic) was less than 10 kg. That's not a typo. Ten.  And that was an upper limit. 10 kg of virus particles on the whole planet, distributed among all the people on earth, caused a huge disruption to human society.  And the aliens wouldn't even have to deliver 10 kg - the vast majority of those 10 kg are virus particles that people manufactured themselves from the instructions provided by their infections.

I've been advocating for a while that all these people with the idea that we'll send people to other stars is silly.  It's more effective to send E coli, or a mixture of various bacteria that can survive a range of conditions.  Eventually they'll evolve into something that's customized to wherever it lands, and if it evolves enough to be able to read, you make sure there were a bunch of indestructible "books" (information storage devices) sent along with it so they don't have to reinvent physics and chemistry.

Didnt Michael Crichton do this, with the Andromeda Strain? If you're sending bacteria, then you code in messages into its dna that are obviously artificial in nature, have no biological purpose and do no degrade over iterations. Then your communicating with an alien race with 20th cent level tech and things will move a lot faster.

 

[chrisl]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Didnt Michael Crichton do this, with the Andromeda Strain? If you're sending bacteria, then you code in messages into its dna that are obviously artificial in nature, have no biological purpose and do no degrade over iterations. Then your communicating with an alien race with 20th cent level tech and things will move a lot faster.

 

He sent the alien bacteria.  It's not clear that they were attempting to invade or had an alien encyclopedia with them so much as were lax about planetary protection.

[Kinophile]

Correct it was a random alien bacteria,there was an artificiality to it (it could morph what it was able to digested) which implied a designed species but not a communications medium.

[Ts4EVER]

The war must really be a stalemate, what with there being talk of aliens here now...

[Zeleban]

A short overview of the situation on the Kherson bridgehead and near Rabotin from Mr. Mashovets

1. Crimean - Dnieper direction...

Obviously, the enemy command has so far refused to bring into battle the main forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 7th Airborne Assault Division, at the first position of its main defense line along the Oleshki-Novaya Kakhovka coastal road.

At the moment, from the 70th division, only the 26th motorized rifle regiment is directly brought into battle, another - the 24th motorized rifle regiment, deployed in the second echelon of the enemy tactical group of forces, operating in the direction of Podstepnoe and Peschanovka, north of Radensk... The remaining units and subunits of the formation are probably concentrated in the Kliny - Druzhnoe - Skadovka - Petropavlovka area, around the villages of Tarasovka and Brylovka (28th motorized rifle regiment, 17th tank regiment and 81st self-propelled artillery regiment). , at least one consolidated division (sadn) of the latter, nevertheless, operates towards the village of Krynki, supporting the 26th infantry regiment.

              The 7th Airborne Division has so far brought into battle only the 171st Airborne Assault Battalion in the Poima-Antonovsky railway bridge direction. There is some information about the movement of units of the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment of this division to the Crimean-Tavrian direction, but so far our group (IS) has not found objective evidence regarding this... The remaining units of the 7th Airborne Division deployed in this direction ( The 104th tank battalion and the 162nd separate reconnaissance battalion + division headquarters) are probably concentrated in the Marchenko - Chernaya Dolina - Magdalinovka - Morozovka area.

              Thus, it becomes clear that while the enemy is acting against the forward bridgeheads of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank of the river. Dnieper, currently with limited forces:

- part of the forces of the 49th combined arms army - 205th separate motorized rifle brigade

- part of the forces of the 18th Combined Arms Army - 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade, 2 regiments of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (24th and 26th), separate units of the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade

- part of the forces of the 40th Army Corps (AK) - 144th separate motorized rifle brigade
- as well as a number of “attached” forces and means - the 171st infantry battalion, the 177th separate marine regiment and at least 3 motorized rifle regiments of territorial troops, 3 separate battalions of the BARS type, territorial troops and mobilization reserve, concentrated mainly in the area of Oleshki and the village of Cossack Camps.

There is also as yet unverified information about the deployment to the south of the village. Korsunka (directly behind the Shtorm-z) of at least one battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade. But, obviously, with further negative developments in the situation in the coastal zone, the command of the enemy group of forces “Dnepr” will immediately try to increase its efforts in these directions.         

 In the meantime, in the near future, we can expect intensive “tests” of the enemy by the above forces; if not liquidate the Ukrainian bridgeheads, then at least significantly reduce them in size, block and isolate them...

First of all, the enemy will obviously try to interrupt the logistical support of advanced Ukrainian units and their replenishment...

[Zeleban]

2. Tokmаk direction...

Over the past few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping operating in this direction has clearly, let’s say, “cast some doubt” on the thesis that is now quite widespread among experts that it has allegedly “run out of steam.”

And although the volume of this activity clearly does not entail any drastic changes and does not exceed the tactical level, the very fact of this already indicates that it is too early to put a “bold” end in this direction, at least formally. ..

In particular, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had limited success in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, north-west of the village of Verbovoye, and also west of the village of Rabotino, in particular:

- The enemy’s 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade, obviously, was forced to leave its forward positions in at least two forest belts to the west of the village of Rabotino...

- North-west of the village of Verbovoye, Ukrainian units, apparently, finally managed to knock out the enemy from one important height from a tactical point of view (elevation - 140)

- Ukrainian units, also operating along the N-08 road, apparently came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of the village of Novopokrovka. In fact, the enemy on this side continues to hold only one forest belt south of the village.

Also, it is worth mentioning that in the most important area in the area of the village of Novoprokopovka and east of it, the enemy was also forced, after a series of counterattacks, to retreat to their fortified positions at the first position of their main line of defense, where the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not yet overcome it.. including in the area of two key heights for this direction with elevation. – 160 and 170.

As we see, the meaning of the extreme activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the Tokmak direction is 2 things.

- expanding its penetration on the flanks...

- and also, the solution to the “Novoprokopovka issue”

The Russians understand all this well, therefore... they are holding on with all their might to those sections of the first position of their main line of defense between Novoprokopovka and Verbove, which they still hold... forcedly concentrating their main forces and means here.

It is obvious that they clearly do not like the alternative, in the form of Ukrainian units bypassing the village of Novoprokopovka from the east...

Another feature of this direction that is worth mentioning... is the presence of a "real horde" of Russian formations of territorial troops, read - mainly "mobs"...

There are 6 such formations (meaning regiments of territorial troops) deployed here at once, + another 4 semi-combat-ready battalions of the BARS type, as well as a Rogozin unit together with the 249th motorized battalion "Akhmat-Yug" ... and some DPR police from the "Cascade" battalion...

As far as I understand, the enemy’s main “defensive” force here is the units and subunits of his 42nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 58th Army, as well as its headquarters controlling them. The rest are helping them... including a couple of regiments of the 7th, 76th Airborne Division and the 44th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve...

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, the problem I raised at the end of my previous post remains

One problem at a time

EFP/Tandem/GMLRS/155mm were all problems last decade and last century. And we have ways of dealing with those threats ... or at least ways of not losing our minds when they're being employed. Smart, highly maneauverable payload-bearing drones are the new element looking for a solution.

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

A short overview of the situation on the Kherson bridgehead and near Rabotin from Mr. Mashovets

 

Thank you for the translations.

It is really interesting how appropriate the grinding metaphor is.

You grind a knife and it loses material, but gets sharper - Russia bleeds and only its more competent components manage to remain (whether political or military). They are learning - on a tactical level, or, when it comes to war economics and regime stability, on a strategic level.

What you need to do is to slowly grind that knife more and more and more... until the metal is so thin, that the edge becomes brittle and the blade will shatter when you tap it against a brick. 

My personal vision of what Ukraine needs for a "victory" that is both morally acceptable and realistic from my view:

a) equipment to hold the line on the defense. Make every meter cost a battalion. This is actually quite affordable for the West.

aa) Subpoint: The "Titanium Dome" Project - as much AA as possible to make Ukraine as immune as possible against Russian deep strikes. Delivery of air-defense is also much easier to sell politically to Western peaceniks who shrink at the sight of a gun and scream "military-industrial complex"

b) Extend Ukrainian long-range deep strike capabilities to make the defense of occupied territory as painful as possible and degrade the Russian war economy

bb) prevent Russia from doing the same or to the same degree to Ukraine, see sub-point aa) 

c) Ukrainian allies need to tighten Russian sanctions gradually each year. It is clear that the West is unwilling and/or unable to enact a proper embargo against a country poised to destroy all it holds dear and rape its women, but the West will be willing to continue the current half-measures while continuing to snore away while world history happens

d) Ukrainian allies need to work on continually integrating Ukraine politically and economically and ensure the survival of Ukrainian civil societal structure; the EU has to be at the forefront of this task and things aren't actually looking too bad here. 

dd) Eventual solution for a partial membership in NATO or equivalent security guarantees. This will, eventually, be impossible to avoid. There is absolutely nothing but a nuclear guarantee that can make Russia uphold a peace agreement, whatever it looks like. 

This plan for  the next 5-6 years would make Russia regret for a hundred years that they decided to start this. 

No armored fist, no thunder run. That kind of warfare is done. Too expensive, too risky, maybe even militarily impossible (denial).

And outside my usual doom and gloom about the global situation, I don't see this as bad nor as unrealistic. I think this is achievable in a practical way, with all the political problems we have. And I don't know about you guys, but this makes me feel actually positive.

I will now sip my drink and return to sitting silently in my leather chair to let the other gentlemen and gentleladies of the club take the stage around the big war map again. 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Carolus

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

2. Tokmаk direction...

In particular, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had limited success in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, north-west of the village of Verbovoye, and also west of the village of Rabotino, in particular:

- The enemy’s 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade, obviously, was forced to leave its forward positions in at least two forest belts to the west of the village of Rabotino...

- North-west of the village of Verbovoye, Ukrainian units, apparently, finally managed to knock out the enemy from one important height from a tactical point of view (elevation - 140)

- Ukrainian units, also operating along the N-08 road, apparently came close to the western and southwestern outskirts of the village of Novopokrovka. In fact, the enemy on this side continues to hold only one forest belt south of the village.

DeepState map, depicting with blue color this progress during last week. This deep blue salient NW Verbove - is the same height 140, mentioned by Mashovets. UKR troops about month slowly have been bypassing it from north and partially from south and lilkely at last pushed Russians back or forced them to withdraw under threat of logistic cut.  

Edited November 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

EFP/Tandem/GMLRS/155mm were all problems last decade and last century. And we have ways of dealing with those threats ... or at least ways of not losing our minds when they're being employed.

We kinda didn’t if we are honest with ourselves.  I think we talked ourselves into solutions but they were never tested.  Smoke, manoeuvre, APS, ERA.  I think we “umpired” a lot of these realities away in wargames and training, and then outright dismissed them as we fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I can’t imagine the difference in COIN if the Taliban had the levels of internet access we see today and drones, let alone a straight up conventional war.

Problem is that in the first real peer conventional war all of the things we tried to forget, plus new stuff all came home to roost.  Artillery is no longer dumb (as much as it pains to admit), ATGMs don’t give a fig about smoke or ERA, drones are flying directly at individual soldiers and following them into bunkers, and ISR is just crazy.

Finally on nets.  I actually think that combining a strong mesh (non-metallic would be best…carbon fibre?) with thermal camouflage might make for an effective UAS shield…but a static one.  For vehicles they are simply too hot and easily detected once they fire.  So definitely a good idea but they would have to be retractable and quickly so vehicles could move in seconds.  For troops they make for a solid defensive option to protect trenches but once again we see defensive primacy.  The second they get up to move they are not going to drag those nets with them.

Of course the second problem is that as soon as I lose a drone to a net, I am going to pound that spot with indirect fires.  But maybe trenches still work?

Either way this whole thing still points to a static defensive environment where attacking and/or moving is extremely difficult.  My best guess is that until someone can field an APS made of UAS/UGV (and then they will figure out we probably don’t need whatever they are protecting), we are kinda stuck.  Corrosive warfare did work but clearly it has a threshold and the Russians found enough friction to blunt it.  At a tactical and operational level the RA kinda won Summer ‘23 (until we understand the full impact of losses we cannot know strategic outcomes).  Maybe we got too used to them losing but the fact that your opponent is going to have good days is a reality in any war.

My hypothesis is not that the RA suddenly outfought the UA.  It is that they finally established conditions where defensive asymmetry succeeded.  Now whether the UA can overcome that may be a bigger issue than “more kit”.