How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Last night Russians hit the logistic terminal of "New Post" near Kharkiv with several S-300. 6 killed, 14 wounded.

"New Post" is very successfull commercial alternative of state post in Ukraine with outstanding logistic, allowing to deliver anything in any part of Ukraine within 24 hours. This company works even in rear of frontline areas, so it's "magic wand" for supplying of soldiers except large charity funds.

Russians claimed this was legal target, beacuse "New Post" as if delivered weapon and even combat vehciles.

It's probably because of stupid Russian generals passed as seriuos an old photoshoped meme with truck of "New Post" delivering some armor - like friedly joke, that "New Post" can do all

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

The battle for slage heap is continuing. Russians now changed tactic and try to seize the heap with multiple small assault groups of infantry, covering by artillery fire. 

OSINTer maps show Russian zone control now expanded to NE slopes of the slageheap.

According to Kostiantyn Mashovets Russian command continues to build up forces on Avdiivka direction, preparing to throw them in other assault. In this time this is mostly mobik regiments of Territorial Troops: 1487th MRR, 1004th MRR, 504th tank regiment of Territorial tropops and 111th motor-rifle regiment of 44th VDV division (former 111th reserve rifle regiment of DPR)

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians hit a house, where allegedly were deployed UKR troops with LMUR heavy helicopter missile.

LMUR can ve launched from Mi-28, Ka-52 and special versions of Mi-8 - Mi-8MNP-2 and Mi-8AMTSh-VN

Comparely with "Ataka" and "Vikhr' " ATGMs this missile has larger HE warhead (no info about HEAT version) - 25 kg and maximum range 14,5 km.

The missile has two modes of homing: "fire and forget", when operator marks the target and makes a launch and online guidance like UAV. In this latter mode it can be launched on maximal range. For this LMUR just launched toward the enemy, using inertial homing with GLONASS corrections if need, and then operator can choose any target, directing the misiile in desirable course. In this mode operator receives a picture from warhead and can control a flight like UAV.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

If this is not wrong identification, tanks of T-90 family have appeared near Avdiivka. 

UKR TG reports one T-90 was destroyed

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The battle for slage heap is continuing. Russians now changed tactic and try to seize the heap with multiple small assault groups of infantry, covering by artillery fire. 

Same pattern on both sides.  Try big, get hammered…go small.  Have western commentators go “silly [insert side], why are you going small?  Be more manoeuvry!”

Edited October 22, 2023 by The_Capt

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

so is war becoming obsolete or just for those who don't care about their own casualties?

No, it rather means that a conventional mechanised warfare will be largely obsolete and replaced by drone warfare. I imagine a full-scale non-nuclear conflict (assuming no war in space and no significant naval element) would have the following aspects (in the chronological order): the air phase- the drone phase- the conventional phase- the assymetrical phase.

Whoever wins both the air war and the drone war, will have sufficient control over the battlefield, that the opponent will be reduced to digging in deep and trying to survive for as long as possible. No offensive action other than local counterattacks mostly on foot would be likely.  The winner of the air war and the drone war will still have to reduce the loser's strongpoints , Zaporozhe style, which leaves some room for conventional warfare as we knew it: with tube artillery, unguided MLRS and a smattering of tanks and IFVs. This is were the non-loss-averse side could have some advantage, as they could last under the enemy fires longer. But most likely the one who controls the battlefield through drones would win eventually.  Once this conventional phase is won, then the loser could stop defening ground and resort to guerilla warfare.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No, it rather means that a conventional mechanised warfare will be largely obsolete and replaced by drone warfare. I imagine a full-scale non-nuclear conflict (assuming no war in space and no significant naval element) would have the following aspects (in the chronological order): the air phase- the drone phase- the conventional phase- the assymetrical phase.

Whoever wins both the air war and the drone war, will have sufficient control over the battlefield, that the opponent will be reduced to digging in deep and trying to survive for as long as possible. No offensive action other than local counterattacks mostly on foot would be likely.  The winner of the air war and the drone war will still have to reduce the loser's strongpoints , Zaporozhe style, which leaves some room for conventional warfare as we knew it: with tube artillery, unguided MLRS and a smattering of tanks and IFVs. This is were the non-loss-averse side could have some advantage, as they could last under the enemy fires longer. But most likely the one who controls the battlefield through drones would win eventually.  Once this conventional phase is won, then the loser could stop defening ground and resort to guerilla warfare.

 

I would only add that there is a Data/C4ISR phase in there somewhere, or maybe throughout.  As one side achieves data superiority the slide to asymmetry will become inevitable.  In fact the thing may be settled by the time one gets to conventional phase.  Then the losing side may go to hybrid, then insurgency - this is essentially war in the micro-social space.  Conventional warfare - or what we thought was conventional - is becoming more punctuation, not core.  

This will likely bleed into maritime domain as well.  Large concentrations of ships are large targets that no bubble can fully protect - we just have not seen it yet.  So we can expect a dis-aggregation in that domain as well.  The real loser could be amphibious as trying to mass sea-land transitions is going to be extremely hard to do in this environment.  Imagine what we are seeing in Ukraine on the open littorals.  

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

According to Kostiantyn Mashovets Russian command continues to build up forces on Avdiivka direction, preparing to throw them in other assault. In this time this is mostly mobik regiments of Territorial Troops: 1487th MRR, 1004th MRR, 504th tank regiment of Territorial tropops and 111th motor-rifle regiment of 44th VDV division (former 111th reserve rifle regiment of DPR)

With the Ukrainian counter offensive in the south clearly at an end it seems the Russians are going "all in" on Avdiivka.  It makes sense from their standpoint as they've got no better offensive prospects elsewhere on the front.

I'm still dismayed that Russia's clear acts of desperation to keep this offensive going aren't opening up opportunities for Ukraine elsewhere.  I'm not talking about a Kharkiv scale possibility, but rather more modest ones like pushing back in Svatove-Kreminna area.  My assumption is that Russian fixed positions are just too much for even local counter attacks to do much of anything.

I predicted last year that we'd wind up with a ground war stalemate for 2024 if Ukraine didn't achieve something large in 2023.  It seems to me we're seeing that now.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Fighterbomber reported again about AD friendly fire, caused a loss of Mi-8MTV-5 with a crew

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Fighterbomber reported again about AD friendly fire, caused a loss of Mi-8MTV-5 with a crew

I wonder if these friendly fire incidents are related to Russia having to put conscripts into AD positions instead of contractors.  Since the units are deployed on Russian territory they could legally do that and free up contractors for frontline positions that can't be staffed by conscripts.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I would only add that there is a Data/C4ISR phase in there somewhere, or maybe throughout.  As one side achieves data superiority the slide to asymmetry will become inevitable.  In fact the thing may be settled by the time one gets to conventional phase.  Then the losing side may go to hybrid, then insurgency - this is essentially war in the micro-social space.  Conventional warfare - or what we thought was conventional - is becoming more punctuation, not core.  

This will likely bleed into maritime domain as well.  Large concentrations of ships are large targets that no bubble can fully protect - we just have not seen it yet.  So we can expect a dis-aggregation in that domain as well.  The real loser could be amphibious as trying to mass sea-land transitions is going to be extremely hard to do in this environment.  Imagine what we are seeing in Ukraine on the open littorals.  

I have been pondering what happens when a ship is attacked by literally a thousand FPV style drones. They would probably have to be autonomous, due to band-width. But how may RPG-7 class hits could a ship take? 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if these friendly fire incidents are related to Russia having to put conscripts into AD positions instead of contractors.  Since the units are deployed on Russian territory they could legally do that and free up contractors for frontline positions that can't be staffed by conscripts.

Steve

All more simple - often IFF malfunctions, bad communication between AD, ground forces and aviation units. The same problem for Ukraine, we also lost enough planes and helicopters and huge number of own drones by friendly fire

[Haiduk]

Russian TGs reported about strong UKR attack from Pervomaiske toward Pisky (southern flank of Avdiivka). Of course "enemy suffered heavy losses, but could to seize some our minor positions, our troops now strike back and will overrun them"

In previous days UKR forces, repelling enemy attempts, could advance very close to "Republic The Bridge" position on western outskirt of Pisky 

PS. UKR TGs reported about successfull attack with small assault groups, supported by several tanks and artillery. 500 m of advance. 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have been pondering what happens when a ship is attacked by literally a thousand FPV style drones. They would probably have to be autonomous, due to band-width. But how may RPG-7 class hits could a ship take? 

A lot without sinking, not many without being rendered combat ineffective.  Smash all the fancy sensors and guess what?  A big chunk of expensive floating metal that can't navigate or defend itself.  At that point a bunch of surface or underwater kamikaze drones could easily finish the job.

It's a bit like the days of warfare between sail ships.  Shred the enemy's sails, masts, and/or rudder and then go in for the kill.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

All more simple - often IFF malfunctions, bad communication between AD, ground forces and aviation units. The same problem for Ukraine, we also lost enough planes and helicopters and huge number of own drones by friendly fire

Yes, but that's been true since the start of the war.  I don't recall another time with so many reports of Russian friendly fire in such a short period of time.  To me it seems like there's something new causing them.  Or it could just be coincidental bad luck.

Steve

[Hapless]

I'm not convinced by the footage, but I'm not a truck expert so:

Also, re: small warheads vs naval vessels... an Argentinian corvette strayed too close to the Royal Marine garrison on South Georgia back in 82:

"Opening fire on the ship, the Royal Marines riddled the bridge with gunfire and killed a sailor trying to get the 40 mm back into action. They also hit the vessel with a LAW and two Carl Gustav rounds for good measure, inflicting more damage and knocking out the ships Exocet anti-ship missiles."

 

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I'm not convinced by the footage, but I'm not a truck expert so:

Also, re: small warheads vs naval vessels... an Argentinian corvette strayed too close to the Royal Marine garrison on South Georgia back in 82:

"Opening fire on the ship, the Royal Marines riddled the bridge with gunfire and killed a sailor trying to get the 40 mm back into action. They also hit the vessel with a LAW and two Carl Gustav rounds for good measure, inflicting more damage and knocking out the ships Exocet anti-ship missiles."

 

I suppose it were armored cars AMN-590951 or VPK-Ural, widely used near Avdiivka. Just their distant similarity and not enough good quality of picture has borned this joke assoсiation of UAV operator. It will be interesting to see a continue.

[Nastypastie]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I have been pondering what happens when a ship is attacked by literally a thousand FPV style drones. They would probably have to be autonomous, due to band-width. But how may RPG-7 class hits could a ship take? 

Many to sink it, even with the light aluminum hulls of today. The problem with ships is the volume. Pierce a tank and you're bound to hit something good, pierce a ship and most likely you hit a bunch of empty space and non critical equipment. You really want semi armour piercing or blast fragmentation for straight explosive yield vs ships.

[akd]

Compilation of Special Unit Kraken clips, some unseen. I guess recent if leaves just turned.

Includes Russian T-72B3 obr. 2016 with mine rollers and huge amount of extra junk on it. Oh, and Russian BMP drivers making damn sure they don’t have to come back to pick up their dismounts.

Edited October 22, 2023 by akd

[Kinophile]

 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Haiduk]

43 minutes ago, akd said:

Compilation of Special Unit Kraken clips, some unseen. I guess recent if leaves just turned

This video about current offensive of Russians on Kupiansk. Due to Kraken actions UKR forces could advance in flank of Russian groupment, attacking from Orlianka toward Ivanivka. Developmnets approx of week ago. 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I have been pondering what happens when a ship is attacked by literally a thousand FPV style drones. They would probably have to be autonomous, due to band-width. But how may RPG-7 class hits could a ship take? 

The fuss, bother and denial that is coming over capital fleets is going to make the tank and helicopter hand wringing look freakin quaint by comparison.

 “A 10 billion dollar ship can be taken out by drones?  Well so can infantry and you don’t see us getting rid of them!”