How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Short article on the Pentagon's challenges to adopt more advanced versions of the sorts of emerging weapons we've talked so much about:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4225909-why-the-pentagons-killer-robots-are-spurring-major-concerns/

Ironically, I'm listening to an audio book based on the premise that Iran was on the cusp of fielding autonomous nanobots designed to wipe out people based on DNA profile (e.g. Jews, Europeans, etc.).  No longer the sort of thing that can be easily dismissed as paranoia or so far down the road that we don't need to worry about it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

You sure? There would still be impacts, just without flashes.  A lot of bomblets are passing through the frame without impact because of extreme zoom flattening the perspective (their impacts would be below the bottom of the frame).

Nope, not sure.  However, there are far more bomblets dropped (404) than there are puffs of dirt by a wide margin.  Therefore, it's pretty safe to conclude that the visible impacts are not the totality of the strike.

Steve

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Short article on the Pentagon's challenges to adopt more advanced versions of the sorts of emerging weapons we've talked so much about:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4225909-why-the-pentagons-killer-robots-are-spurring-major-concerns/

Ironically, I'm listening to an audio book based on the premise that Iran was on the cusp of fielding autonomous nanobots designed to wipe out people based on DNA profile (e.g. Jews, Europeans, etc.).  No longer the sort of thing that can be easily dismissed as paranoia or so far down the road that we don't need to worry about it.

Steve

The endless carping about AI from "human rights" organizations amount to a demand that we lose the next conventional war catastrophically. Because anybody trying to tell you that the Chinese are not going to do these systems on a epic scale is a traitor or a useful idiot. The technological barn door isn't just open, it is in little tiny burning pieces all over eastern Ukraine. 

[Bearstronaut]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The endless carping about AI from "human rights" organizations amount to a demand that we lose the next conventional war catastrophically. Because anybody trying to tell you that the Chinese are not going to do these systems on a epic scale is a traitor or a useful idiot. The technological barn door isn't just open, it is in little tiny burning pieces all over eastern Ukraine. 

It's a real Catch-22 because while you are absolutely correct the "possibilities" of AI and autonomous war machines scares the crap out of me. 

[Harmon Rabb]

In the information war Ukraine was not the only one who messed up this week. Kind of an amusing story that I think our Polish friends may appreciate. It was Oscar Wilde who said Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

I already checked it is indeed in Poland, that big church kind of gives it away.

 

[kimbosbread]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The endless carping about AI from "human rights" organizations amount to a demand that we lose the next conventional war catastrophically.

Just like the Russians support anti-nuclear organizations in the West. The Chinese probably get the most bang for their buck focusing on “human rights” in the coming war.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Just to get some clarification about yesterdays video which turned out to be a fake, or maybe I misunderstood what Mr.Kovalenko is saying.

So were the folks in the video unfortunately Surrendering AFU members or was the whole video fake created by Russia?   

Good question.  Given that a pro-Russian doctored the video with the intention of tricking the Ukrainians, it is totally possible the whole thing is a fake.

As the Twitter post states... the info war goes on.

Steve

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ironically, I'm listening to an audio book based on the premise that Iran was on the cusp of fielding autonomous nanobots designed to wipe out people based on DNA profile (e.g. Jews, Europeans, etc.).  No longer the sort of thing that can be easily dismissed as paranoia or so far down the road that we don't need to worry about it.

If that is not 'Wool' (which has been made into the excellent TV series 'Silo') then I would like to know which.

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

Just a work of Su-25 over the head

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

If that is not 'Wool' (which has been made into the excellent TV series 'Silo') then I would like to know which.

Close... "Shift", the prequel to "Wool"

The dilemma with nefarious AI is that it is already happening.  China is using AI in ways that would make Orwell think "sheesh, I underestimated where this was headed".  Corporations use it in ways that are questionable, to say the least.  Criminal organizations and rogue actors are no doubt, as we speak, refining their activities.  And weaponry... already being done by private companies knowing that some day (soon) a government will put in a purchase order.

So, we should be afraid.  Non-state actors already, even before drones, had the ability to have outsized influence without accountability.  It's only going to get worse and there is absolutely nothing that can be done to stop it from happening.  The resources necessary are just too readily available for meaningful controls to be placed on them.

Steve

[akd]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nope, not sure.  However, there are far more bomblets dropped (404) than there are puffs of dirt by a wide margin.  Therefore, it's pretty safe to conclude that the visible impacts are not the totality of the strike.

Steve

There are at most 88 sub-munitions (assuming 155mm M483A1), less if RAP version, but I doubt the count would match up perfectly.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

There are at most 88 sub-munitions (assuming 155mm M483A1), less if RAP version, but I doubt the count would match up perfectly.

Good point that this isn't an M30.  At least not in that video as there were multiple strikes, so that indicates 155mm type.

It is really hard to tell what's going on.  I did a quick visual count and it seems like there is 1-2 puffs of smoke for every bomblet.  However, it also appears that some bomblets impact so closely to each other that the puffs might represent more than one hit.

I'm definitely still learning about DPICM as it is not a system I put much time into studying before this.  Ya know, because they weren't supposed to be used

Steve

[Haiduk]

Video of 47th mech.brigade - Leo2 shells enemy positon, Bardley delivers infantry to hold a trench

UKR TG about curernt situation:

Not all simply near Verbove - we have big losses, mostly wounded. Orcs slightly pushed us back on outskirts of this village.

On other (new) direction in the "pocket" we have some success, our forces gained foothold there, pidor's rears in this place almost completely beaten up by our artillery

Reportedly Russians are going to send 41st CAA from Lyman direction to the south. Now this army is substituting on strategical reserve - new formed 25th CAA

UKR soldiers walk almost free thgrough "dragon teath" line in 2,5 km west from Verbove

 

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

20 hours ago, kluge said:

The breach of the main defensive line and subsequent battles have mostly all been located in a narrow, shallow valley. The geography limits the exposure of Ukranian forces at the bottom of the valley to direct fire and observation. Conveniently there's also a well built set of fortifications that provides excellent cover for infantry.

I suspect that Ukraine is able to freely operate drones in that area because the valley provides a degree of protection from jamming, so long as the drones fly low enough (< 50-100 ft) such that they are out of the LOS of various EW systems. An EW system covering that valley would need to be within 1km of Ukranian positions and wouldn't last terribly long.

 

Lol. You've sort of described a reverse slope, except for offence rather than defence. In other words, "ground dictates." As it /always/ has ...

Edited September 29, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

For addition - action in support of Russian soldiers in the kindergarden "Svyetlyachok" (eng. "Little firefly") with participation of "Youth Army" in Pskov oblast. This is even beyond of militarism in usual sense of this word. Even Japaneese militarism had own grim aesthetic - this is just ugly crazy cosplay. 

There are two main cathegories of Russians - those who still to live in the world of rose unicorns and lavander latte, but much bigger other part are just obsessed with a war, revanchism and wishes to see how Russia will rule the world and humilitate "anglo-saxons"   

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

For addition - action in support of Russian soldiers in the kindergarden "Svyetlyachok" (eng. "Little firefly") with participation of "Youth Army" in Pskov oblast. This is even beyond of militarism in usual sense of this word. Even Japaneese militarism had own grim aesthetic - this is just ugly crazy cosplay.    

 

Pskov might be one of the worst case scenarios. The entire economy is based one way or another on the VDV base(s) there.

This story has stuck with me as strongly as any thing reported out of Russia in the whole war. Almost certain some of the kids in that picture have had a father come back in a zinc coffin. 

[Haiduk]

Day 1,. The scheme, depicting all missile and airstrikes in first day of war was shown on UKR TV in interview with Oleksiy Danylov, chief of National Security Council

Yellow - aviation, red - missiles

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The entire economy is based one way or another on the VDV base(s) there.

+Spetsnaz brigade, + two airfields, + supply unit

[Harmon Rabb]

Checked with AP this is legit.

Russia hosts the Taliban for talks on regional threats and says it will keep funding Afghanistan (AP)

Quote

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Moscow will keep helping Afghanistan on its own and through the U.N. food agency, Russian officials said Friday as they hosted Taliban representatives for talks on regional threats.

The talks in the Russian city of Kazan came as Moscow is trying to maintain its influence in Central Asia even as it wages war on Ukraine. The discussions focused on regional threats and creating inclusive government, Russian state news agency Tass reported.

President Vladimir Putin’s special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov attended the gathering and said Russia is inclined to keep helping Afghanistan independently and through the World Food Program.

 

A letter from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was read at the talks, accusing Western countries of “complete failure” in Afghanistan, saying they should “bear the primary burden of rebuilding the country.”

Is Russia still interested in getting kit from Afghanistan or has the Afghanistan exhausted it's stockpiles to sell to others? I mean not that long ago Russia was asking North Korea for ammo.

It was a gentleman who went by the username @Combatintman, who knew a lot about Afghanistan due to his trade, who said On October 5th 2022 on this very forum.

Quote

To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian forces conducted some actions on Russian territory:

- SBU hit with a drone Russian modern surviellance 3-coordinate radar 39N6 Kasta 2E2, capable to detect targets on extreme low altitudes. The strike was conducted near Giryi village (Kursk oblast, 11 km from UKR border) 

- Also SBU unit dropped the bombs from a drone on power substation in Kursk oblast, setting on fire a transformer. Five villages were cutt off electricity.

- Units of "Freedom for Russia Legion" conducted two diversion raids in Bryansk oblast, objectives unknown, there were clashes with Russian border guards. 

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Maryinka - Krasnohorivka section

UKR troops slighlly pushed bask Russian troops in western part of the town (previous UKR positions marked with black dotted line). The battle for this small town, ruined to the ground on 99 % have been lasting already 1,5 years. Also UKR troops have small success south from this town

But on other habd, DPR forces have success north from Maryinka near Krasnohorivka. Recently about a month or more ago they managed to retake own lost strongpoint, which they held since 2014 and lost to UKR forces about two months ago. In previous days 5th motor-rifle brigade of DPR could take some UKR froward positions in grey zone south and SE from Krasnohorivka

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian resources claimed VDV advance to Vesele village north from Soledar, as if they could enter to the village, but couldn't gain foothold there and were forced to return back. No information about this from UKR side.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

In Russian TG a problem is discussing - because of lack (relative lack!) of 152 mm ammunitions, Russian industry remakes OF98 lighting shells to HE. But these shells, filled with HE are significantly different by own behavior in comparison with usual HE shells, so firing of these ammo became a "Russian roulette". Author writes, he knows already three accidents, when these shells have exploding in howitzer barrels, destroying guns and causing losses ot personnel, so now crews fire this shells only with a rope with safe distance

  

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]