How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The banner somewhere in occupied Kherson oblast like a good example of "Russian world" values.

Writing:

Kinder, Kuche, Kirсhe!

The sence and greatness of russian woman

I'm traditionalist, but this is fu...g "Russian orthodoxal sharia"

 

 

 

I strongly suspect sharia with vodka is even worse than sharia without vodka.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR "Shark" drone targeted two Russian Buk-M3 vehicles - the launcher and charging vehicle for HIMARS in Svitlodarsk area. Also Russian crew abandoned radar of this complex. It caught some fire, but likely didn't get damages. After this UKR plane has struck Russian HQ or troops deployments in Svitlodarsk town with two JDAM-ER

Russian soldier shows consequences of UKR strike in Svitlodarsk

 

Text book example of a well planned and organized strike. Also you have you love it when the bad guys give you an extensive video BDA for free.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

In Robotyne area UKR FPV drone hit Russian UAZ "Bukhanka", carring wounded. Good example it's a myth that as if HEAT projectile penetrated armored vehicle caused injureies or burns alive all, who are inside. In this case unarmored van was hit, most unlucky turned out combat medic - he lost his arm. All other got shell shoks or light wounds. 

These small vans are one of priority targets for FPV drones, because these vehicles play the same role as jeeps, pick-ups and mini-buses in UKR army - supply of forward positions with ammo and food, evacuation of wounded and killed, fast deployment of small groups between positions. Tehere are no so many "Bukhakas" in the "shtat" of Russian units - its all a volunteer aid  - the same like in UKR all these jeeps are supplying by fundrising.

 

This is actually a case study in how much deadlier FPV drones will be when they aren't being rigged up in someones garage with whatever random munitions are available. A warhead optimized to have some fragmentation effects behind the HEAT charge, and everybody in that van is KIA. Standard RPG7 HEAT just pokes a hole straight through something made out of sheet metal that light without producing much in the way of secondary effects. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

13 hours ago, billbindc said:

The silovik state operates under a system of understandings. Those will have to be renegotiated as the old ones will go into the ground with Kadyrov. Putin will be forced to let someone else into his inner circle, competitive forces will be released within the Chechen system, etc. It will be yet another complication, yet another distraction and likely a further reduction in state capacity emanating from Putin's office. I don't expect something dramatic to change at first but more like increased systemic drag. 

I am frankly not convinced Chechnya matters that much in Russian power system. It is colourful additon to already vast country to be sure, but beyond providing access to several thousands of potentiall oprychniki for whoever will be a Tsar, it is of little importance by itself. Perhaps Dagestan is even more relevant at this point. On other side, Chechens overal appeal pleasantly licks Kremlin imperial ego; after all, coolest thing in being proper Empire is that you have access to various odd, hairy, unruly yet very lively barbarians, who once harnessed can still provide a lot of their wild mojo. This alone can be enough to convince Putin to leave governence of the province to the Chechens in case Kadyrov implodes.

But regarding Kadyrov himself, I am little dissapointed by SBU. If that would be just internet rumour- fine; but vouching for it by Ukrainian officials was a mistake. Runet already laughs how again Kadyrov tricked Westerners again.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Every time we deploy the armoured fist somewhere, cheap and many lethal systems to counter it will have been there for weeks.  And the technology behind those system is going to be an extremely high priority because they can deny what is the core of our current western military ground force …they watched the Gulf War and Iraq 03 on tv same way we did.

So add it all up. Tactical, Operational and Strategic - the whole thing does not look good for the entire heavy system.  Lighter, faster, cheaper, deadlier and unmanned is a wave of change that no one is going to be able to stand in front of.  In my opinion we are watching the re-definition of “combined arms” unfold in front of us daily in Ukraine.  The re-design of what combat power means and warfare itself is going to be fundamentally changed.

So this means the dreams of a glorious MechWarrior future are deader than dead?

More like TerraNova?

[Haiduk]

"Back-and-alive" charity foundation jokes it would be easier to fundrise money and to buy all these vehicles without equipment and to equip it with all needed here in Ukraine. This would be much faster that wait 18 monts. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

16 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

So this means the dreams of a glorious MechWarrior future are deader than dead?

Well.

Part of the MechWarrior/BattleTech universe history is that people can't actually make new stuff - the mechs, the spaceships, the domed cities on hostile planets, all the infrastructure are inherited from previous generations and patched hundred times over, because the technology was lost and it is impossible to make new stuff. Some small items can be built, but if you lose a big fancy spaceship, that is it, you will never make new one.

So you could claim that Russia is somewhat living in that glorious MechWarrior future is what I'm saying.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I am frankly not convinced Chechnya matters that much in Russian power system. It is colourful additon to already vast country to be sure, but beyond providing access to several thousands of potentiall oprychniki for whoever will be a Tsar, it is of little importance by itself. Perhaps Dagestan is even more relevant at this point. On other side, Chechens overal appeal pleasantly licks Kremlin imperial ego; after all, coolest thing in being proper Empire is that you have access to various odd, hairy, unruly yet very lively barbarians, who once harnessed can still provide a lot of their wild mojo. This alone can be enough to convince Putin to leave governence of the province to the Chechens in case Kadyrov implodes.

But regarding Kadyrov himself, I am little dissapointed by SBU. If that would be just internet rumour- fine; but vouching for it by Ukrainian officials was a mistake. Runet already laughs how again Kadyrov tricked Westerners again.

I have a suggestion for how they can remedy their error...

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Well.

Part of the MechWarrior/BattleTech universe history is that people can't actually make new stuff - the mechs, the spaceships, the domed cities on hostile planets, all the infrastructure are inherited from previous generations and patched hundred times over, because the technology was lost and it is impossible to make new stuff. Some small items can be built, but if you lose a big fancy spaceship, that is it, you will never make new one.

So you could claim that Russia is somewhat living in that glorious MechWarrior future is what I'm saying.

It is true that a lot of the infrastructure has been damaged across the Inner Sphere and technology has been lost during the fall of the Star League and the succession wars. JumpShips are still built but in very small numbers. even during war attacking a JumpShip is considered a war crime punishable under the Ares Conventions.

That being said technological progress still exists. For example the work done at the New Avalon Institute of Science, or the technological renaissance when The Gray Death Legion found the Helm Memory Core. The Inner Sphere also got to seem some far superior technology when the Clans invaded.

Anyway back on topic, unfortunately these days Russia under Putin reminds me more and more of the Capellan Confederation. relevantly weak, authoritarian but has more than enough avenues open to cause trouble for others.

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[billbindc]

Thanks for the refs, friends. 

[billbindc]

Double, somehow.

Edited September 17, 2023 by billbindc

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-innovators-want-to-bring-life-saving-robots-to-the-battlefield/

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I am frankly not convinced Chechnya matters that much in Russian power system.

Chechnya that's falling in line might not actually matter that much. Chechnya that's causing trouble, on the other hand, might have quite a bit of impact. The Russians know it, and the Chechens might know it as well.

But it's mostly wishful thinking on my part. I don't think it is particularly likely that trouble will happen.

[Haiduk]

Sevastopol local chats report about loud explosions on Fiolent cape, where located 475th ELINT center of Black Sea Fleet and air defense unit, armed with S-400 (by other info S-300) SAM. Locals say explosion was so powerful, that windows were broken in some houses close to the cape. After explosion part of Sevastopol was coverd in acrid smoke. Reportedly many ambulances drive toward Fiolent.

City authorities claims AD shot down two Ukrainian drones and smoke is special aerosol for masking of harbor, but in chats locals say with angry, that they heard obvious impacts, not shooting down of drones and distrust words about "masking aerosol"

GUR made a statement they conducts next operation in cooperation with Naval Forces.

On the photo probable places of attack on Fiolent cape

Edited September 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Chechnya that's falling in line might not actually matter that much. Chechnya that's causing trouble, on the other hand, might have quite a bit of impact. The Russians know it, and the Chechens might know it as well.

This was the point I was about to make, but I got ninja'd

The potential problem for any Kremlin regime is Chechnya falling out of line with Moscow would likely result in a larger struggle in the region, including Dagestan. 

All it would take is Chechnya deciding they want a major renegotiation of the current arrangement and are willing to make things very unpleasant if they don't get it.  More than any other territory in Russia, the Chechens have the ability to back up such a threat.  Which is why, as I understand it, the FSB hates them so much (I mean, on top of the racial/cultural reasons).  They know their power in Chechnya is limited.

That said, the Kadyrovites seem to find the current arrangement more-or-less acceptable.  As I've said since the start of the war, that might change if the trainloads of money headed south are reduced.  At that point, it's anybody's guess.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Two important Russian VDV commanders were killed within several days

Colonel Vasiliy Popov, commander of 247th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assult division, Southern military district. Was killed on 10th of September near Verbove in missile strike. Together with him were killed other three servicemen, but unknown who exactly.

His regiment was moved to Verbove - Novofedorivka area from V.Novosilka direction, so 7th air-assualt division operates now on right flank of own battle order in full composition 108th, 247th and 56th air-assault regiments

Colonel Andrey Kondrashkin, commander of 31st air-assault brigade, Eastern military district. Was killed on 17th of September. Brigade was deployed on southern flank of Bakhmut.

 

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This was the point I was about to make, but I got ninja'd

The potential problem for any Kremlin regime is Chechnya falling out of line with Moscow would likely result in a larger struggle in the region, including Dagestan. 

All it would take is Chechnya deciding they want a major renegotiation of the current arrangement and are willing to make things very unpleasant if they don't get it.  More than any other territory in Russia, the Chechens have the ability to back up such a threat.  Which is why, as I understand it, the FSB hates them so much (I mean, on top of the racial/cultural reasons).  They know their power in Chechnya is limited.

That said, the Kadyrovites seem to find the current arrangement more-or-less acceptable.  As I've said since the start of the war, that might change if the trainloads of money headed south are reduced.  At that point, it's anybody's guess.

Steve

My point would be that Chechnya as currently ruled requires little attention from Moscow. Putin and Kadyrov know each others footwork, needs and limitations. Things run themselves. Even a fairly stable Chechnya will spend some time demanding a lot more attention from a Moscow that has its hands quite full already. That was my point about drag. Even best case, Putin will be feeling it.

[danfrodo]

51 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Chechnya that's falling in line might not actually matter that much. Chechnya that's causing trouble, on the other hand, might have quite a bit of impact. The Russians know it, and the Chechens might know it as well.

But it's mostly wishful thinking on my part. I don't think it is particularly likely that trouble will happen.

Just buy off the chief & his critical henchmen, like usual.  And if he decides to start getting uppity, offer the opportunity of a lifetime to the next guy in line and have the troublemaker experience 'health issues'.   Buying people off seems rather cheap these days, as per sarkozy, rand paul, et al.

[Teufel]

Know this topic is getting old but some more circumstantial evidence on the big man. Getting hotter in Moscow or from Russian perspective - just wealthy Chechens with food poisoning.

 

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Sevastopol local chats report about loud explosions on Fiolent cape, where located 475th ELINT center of Black Sea Fleet and air defense unit, armed with S-400 (by other info S-300) SAM. Locals say explosion was so powerful, that windows were broken in some houses close to the cape. After explosion part of Sevastopol was coverd in acrid smoke. Reportedly many ambulances drive toward Fiolent.

City authorities claims AD shot down two Ukrainian drones and smoke is special aerosol for masking of harbor, but in chats locals say with angry, that they heard obvious impacts, not shooting down of drones and distrust words about "masking aerosol"

GUR made a statement they conducts next operation in cooperation with Naval Forces.

On the photo probable places of attack on Fiolent cape

Something like this?
 

Edit: see Steve’s post below, old footage. Removed.

Edited September 17, 2023 by Teufel

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Colonel Andrey Kondrashkin, commander of 31st air-assault brigade, Eastern military district. Was killed on 17th of September. Brigade was deployed on southern flank of Bakhmut

Very interesting coincidences...didn't 31st already lost its command early in the war?

Being top officer in VDV nowadays is like being Genghis-chan envoy. Maybe glorious, but definitelly one-way job.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 9/16/2023 at 3:10 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Adam Tooze is pretty sound; no particular ideological brief I can discern in a decade of reading him, and his historical work on Weimar/pre-WW2 Germany political economy alone makes his views on these topics well worth considering... IMHO. But sure, he has no better direct line to Gawd than any of us mortals. YMMV.

Economy-wise, he seems pretty left-wing and before 2022 used to be sympathetic to Chinese state interventionism. However, he is good read as he appears to hide his biases fairly well, except for austerity politics. He really hates those and EU response to the 2008 financial crisis.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting coincidences...didn't 31st already lost its command early in the war?

Yes.  According to sBurke's list, as well as Wikipedia:

Colonel Sergey Karasev, Commander, 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk) (Killed Mar 11)

Whatever Russia's "elite" units are doing to mask their commanders' locations doesn't seem to be working so well this week

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My point would be that Chechnya as currently ruled requires little attention from Moscow. Putin and Kadyrov know each others footwork, needs and limitations. Things run themselves. Even a fairly stable Chechnya will spend some time demanding a lot more attention from a Moscow that has its hands quite full already. That was my point about drag. Even best case, Putin will be feeling it.

Absolutely.  It's like having a minor car problem during a busy week.  Sure, the car is OK to drive and easily fixed, but it takes some effort to get it done.  Especially if you're just headed out on a roadtrip and your car's sensor system "forgets" its settings and blows scalding hot air on your legs instead of cool air conditioned air.  Not that I know what that might be like.  Twice.

If there was nothing else on Putin's plate a transition of power in Chechnya would likely be easily dealt with.  Now?  Well, we just don't know.  It would be foolish for new Chechen leadership to make the transition anything but smooth, however we are well past thinking that foolishness is off the table when it comes to anything Russian.

Steve

[Teufel]

4 hours ago, Teufel said:

Interesting move, wonder if it was already planned prior the strikes and has to do with logistics rather than protecting them from Ukrainian attacks. Let’s see what happens next.

 

To answer my own question in reference to ISW and yesterday’s report. Appears this move is in anticipation of the railway being cut in Tokmak.

 

[Battlefront.com]

There's apparently a bunch of strikes, not just in Crimea but also Moscow region:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4208680-ukrainian-drones-strike-crimea-moscow-russia/

Road traffic over the Kerch bridge has been halted:

Confirmation about the attack in Crimea, but pointing out widely disseminating image (already shown here) is old:

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not that I know what that might be like.  Twice.

Remind me what not to buy, please.