How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Two videos from different angles with wiping out of UKR armored company probably of 118th mech.brigade on BMP-1 2-3 days ago. I think, survived sodiers have to make something bad with their battalion commander, who gave this stupid order for suicidal attack without recon.

Videos from pro-Russian account, likely Serbian. 

Very unfortunate and totally avoidable.  At least two of the BMPs were destroyed by RPG fire from the field on the other side of the road.  Which means they drove right into a kill sack.  That's not something that should ever happen with a deliberate attack like this, especially considering the ISR advantages Ukraine has.

The second video shows a fair amount of the Ukrainian infantry dismounting before they were blown up, but there is also clear evidence of many Ukrainian bodies scattered around the forward destroyed element.

This could be the "100 vehicle" destruction that the Russians were bragging about the other day. 

It is important to note, however, that as bad as this was for Ukraine, it isn't as bad as Russian trolls claim it to be.  I see confirmed 5x BMPs destroyed.  There's a number of vehicles that were obviously already destroyed a while ago, including what looks to be a tank.  The follow up group of BMPs wasn't the focus of any of the footage so far, so I don't know if Russia managed to destroy any of them.

So, at this point it looks like 2x Mech Platoons lost all their armor and a large number of casualties.  It is a stupid way to lose so much manpower and vehicles, but it isn't as horrible as the Russian trolls want us to think it is.

Steve

[Teufel]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Two videos from different angles with wiping out of UKR armored company probably of 118th mech.brigade on BMP-1 2-3 days ago. I think, survived sodiers have to make something bad with their battalion commander, who gave this stupid order for suicidal attack without recon.

Videos from pro-Russian account, likely Serbian. 

 

 

It’s tough to stomach this type of events, even from the sidelines. Nothing compared to your own Ukrainian perspective, and I feel your pain and frustration. Don’t know if you unfortunately lost family, friends or colleagues in this war, if so you got our condolences. These heroic men and women are fighting for a just and righteous cause.

Few would be ready to volunteer in the same situation that you find yourself in. Even fewer would take a stand with gun in hand. Russians reveling in these Ukrainian losses makes it even worse to watch. But this would have happened even if we didn’t get it on video to see the graphic nature of war in this way.

This is the price that has to be paid, for you and all those that come after you to live in liberty of choice as Ukrainians. Trust me when I say that this is not sentimental nonsense from behind the keyboard. I’ve been in your seat right there, seen this first hand. Just like you we had no choice but to push back in our own existential fight. The difference being, and no bitterness, just matter of fact - nobody gave us support and a fighting chance against an overwhelming enemy. I was lucky to have been given a second chance, not everyone did. But that’s thing of the past, your pain is here and now, our focus should be on that only.

There will be losses also in the future, but those are inevitable in war. And I trust when peace finally comes that will be without any occupied Ukrainian land. Again, being in the midst of it one is prepared to give ones life for that of ones children and families. Even under the worse of conditions morale is not broken. As the saying was “we will not surrender, our families are behind our backs and we cannot turn those towards the enemy”. 

Keep your spirit up brother, I know it’s tough but you are heroes to all of us and those that come after us.

Make all those that fought and lost their lives for our freedom matter. Give the Russians hell!

[Bearstronaut]

18 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The aftermath of the Wagner mutiny saw the admission of Wagner being controlled, run, owned by the Russian state, including prior to the invasion. One can no longer deny Wagner is independent of the Russian government.

True, but Russia also denied sending troops into Crimea and the Donbas in 2014 and that their troops shot down a civilian airliner despite everyone knowing that they were full of it.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

The most important thing to take away from this is the possibility that crackdowns on military and ultra-nationalists might be a preemptive move to silence voices that will become quite loud if the Russian front in the south cracks.

Hmm... do we know for sure if the recent deaths of Russian "journalists" were all at the hands of Ukraine?  It wouldn't shock me to find out later on that they were murdered and Ukraine conveniently blamed for their deaths.  Would be a pretty near perfect way to get rid of troublesome voices.

Steve

[Haiduk]

45 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Tactically, when a company sized unit gets hit that hard, does the parent battalion have to halt operations until the situation is understood and medical service come in under protection of the rest of the parent formation? 

Looks like all happened too fast and there was only one decision - to drop everything and run. You can see on one video, how dismonted squads retreat back. 

Alas, we have enough Ukrainian commanders, who order own subodrinates "shut up and go-go-go!" From brigade to platoon level. Subordinated commanders, having such chief often afraid to contradict stupid orders and in own turn doom own soldiers for "mission impossible". Many in army and among civil volunteers say that it was passed a law about responsibility of soldiers for unathorized abandoning of positions, rejecting to acomplish orders etc, but still no responsibuilit for officers, who directed own personnel to inevitale death, who don't maintain recon, supply and other before the combat. All invesyigations provides a command of that military unit, which officers did something wrong and mostly a circullar guarantee works. Even more in "better traditions" of Soviet army some officers consider that "if you have too few losses, you fought bad". Good example is Russian propaganda, claiming Soviet contributin in WWII victory was decisive, because USSR lost more people in this war. Not because USSR defeated more Axis divisions, which would be more logical! 

I remember as in 2014 commander of one BTG was convicted in evading of order execution, because his losses turned out... less of calculated in General Staff, so despite he acomplished his task, generals decided he fought not enough hard and officer was removed from command.     

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Teufel said:

There will be losses also in the future, but those are inevitable in war.

Yes, but we not Russia, we havn't hordes of slaves for conscription. And a Russian slogan "don't feel sorry for soldiers, broads will give birth more" is not match for us. We havn' t suffer such type of losses, caused by stupid orders.   

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One more video of Taganrog strike. Claims of Russians they intercepted the misile turned out slightly exaggregated....

Revenge of Russia in this evening - two Iskander-M on residental area of Dnipro. Two buildings hit. Number of victims currently unknown, It happend about 10 minutes ago

Upd. The second building with partilally collapsed wall is SBU Directorate of Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Reportedly this building was empty since beginning of the war as potential target. Currently knowingly about three wounded.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, but we not Russia, we havn't hordes of slaves for conscription. And a Russian slogan "don't feel sorry for soldiers, broads will give birth more" is not match for us. We havn' t suffer such type of losses, caused by stupid orders.   

Very depressing. Makes Kofman's analysis from the other day seem "spot-on".

Let's hope some lessons get learned from the Ukrainian side and the Western allies that prepared these new brigades for this counter-offensive.

[Teufel]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, but we not Russia, we havn't hordes of slaves for conscription. And a Russian slogan "don't feel sorry for soldiers, broads will give birth more" is not match for us. We havn' t suffer such type of losses, caused by stupid orders.   

I meant no offense and understand your frustration. Again, there is no other option than victory for Ukraine. You are not giving up this fight, and you will prevail in the end.

Really don’t want to turn this into discussion of bitterness but I have no country to return to even if I wanted. There is nothing there, all those that gave their lives did so in vain. We had no chance even if we fought back, I trust you do!

Stay strong, there is an end to this eventually and victory at that end!

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Let's hope some lessons get learned from the Ukrainian side and the Western allies that prepared these new brigades for this counter-offensive.

Not learned, alas. Those, who participated in Kherson operation, say the battle for Davydiv Brod were the same bloody and commanders just were throwing one unit after another under Russian artillery and counter-attacks, even not trying to change something in the plan. Ambitions and crown on the head hinder to some sort of officers to recognize, their plan was sh...y bad and somebody lower in the rank had more appopriate solution. "I'm chief - you are fooll!"   

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Teufel said:

I meant no offense

Hey! No offense! All right!  

[Haiduk]

The strike at building of so-called "Ministry of Internal Afafirs of DPR" in Donetsk. Artillery shell or missile, hard to say...

 

[cesmonkey]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not learned, alas. Those, who participated in Kherson operation, say the battle for Davydiv Brod were the same bloody and commanders just were throwing one unit after another under Russian artillery and counter-attacks, even not trying to change something in the plan. Ambitions and crown on the head hinder to some sort of officers to recognize, their plan was sh...y bad and somebody lower in the rank had more appopriate solution. "I'm chief - you are fooll!"   

Probably a very touch subject, but do you think the Western partners should put "more strings" in what manner their supplied weapons should be employed - so that they are used successfully? Would that help?

Of course, many of us believe the West isn't providing enough support such that they should deserve "a say" in this matter.

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Probably a very touch subject, but do you think the Western partners should put "more strings" in what manner their supplied weapons should be employed - so that they are used successfully? Would that help?

Of course, many of us believe the West isn't providing enough support such that they should deserve "a say" in this matter.

I was reading not one time from soldiers, that Western training good in basic, but completely doesn't reflect reality of our war. Western armies didn't fight in such type convential war since Korea. Current western doctrine is "Jets&Tomahawks". Many Western experts now say "NATO would never make offensive like Ukrainain army". Germans say (it's Bild article, but...) UKR offensive if bogging, because Ukrianian army doesn't stick to their training and instead to attack with whole battalion, they divide own atatcks on atatcks of small assault groups (well, everydody could see, how finished "battalion column attack" of 47th brigade in June). You can remember interview of UKR tanker, when they asked German instructor what he have to do if a minefield in front of attack and instructor answered "You should bypass minefield" (the man just can't imagine, that minefield can be kilimeters in lenght and hunderd meters in depth) 

Western 5-weeks training also can't bring up good officer "from zero". So, western tarining for civilian conscripts is good "young soldier school", more effective, than most of our training centers, but you sholdn't exaggregate it capabilities. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Interesting timing for that...

BREAKING  A new mutiny. The Russian 70th regiment refuses to fight as long as their commander is not dismissed Interestingly, the 70th regiment is near Verbove where Ukrainians have reached the dragon teeth, on the very frontline of the Ukrainian counteroffensive

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1684963955955961857?s=20

 

[Carolus]

In France, four executives of the company Ommic have been arrested. Two French and two Chinese nationals.

The French state attorney has charged  them for sharing military-related technology with Russia and China. Ommic is a semi-conductor company seated in Paris.

[Teufel]

Murz being Murz

[cesmonkey]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I was reading not one time from soldiers, that Western training good in basic, but completely doesn't reflect reality of our war. Western armies didn't fight in such type convential war since Korea. Current western doctrine is "Jets&Tomahawks". Many Western experts now say "NATO would never make offensive like Ukrainain army". Germans say (it's Bild article, but...) UKR offensive if bogging, because Ukrianian army doesn't stick to their training and instead to attack with whole battalion, they divide own atatcks on atatcks of small assault groups (well, everydody could see, how finished "battalion column attack" of 47th brigade in June). You can remember interview of UKR tanker, when they asked German instructor what he have to do if a minefield in front of attack and instructor answered "You should bypass minefield" (the man just can't imagine, that minefield can be kilimeters in lenght and hunderd meters in depth) 

Western 5-weeks training also can't bring up good officer "from zero". 

I totally hear what you are saying, but I have to believe that not all of the Western officers thought it was a good idea to train newly-formed units in a 5-week course, equip them Western armor, and then task them to lead the counter-offensive against well-prepared Russian positions. (Note: I think that they did get a few extra weeks of training in Germany in how to coordinate in larger formations after the initial training.)

I wonder who was making the decisions on which forces to spearhead the counter-offensive and how to employ them.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Carolus said:

In France, four executives of the company Ommic have been arrested. Two French and two Chinese nationals.

The French state attorney has charged  them for sharing military-related technology with Russia and China. Ommic is a semi-conductor company seated in Paris.

I look forward to their sudden keen interest in prison reform. Hopefully they will have years to study the problem from the inside.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I was reading not one time from soldiers, that Western training good in basic, but completely doesn't reflect reality of our war. Western armies didn't fight in such type convential war since Korea. Current western doctrine is "Jets&Tomahawks". Many Western experts now say "NATO would never make offensive like Ukrainain army". Germans say (it's Bild article, but...) UKR offensive if bogging, because Ukrianian army doesn't stick to their training and instead to attack with whole battalion, they divide own atatcks on atatcks of small assault groups (well, everydody could see, how finished "battalion column attack" of 47th brigade in June). You can remember interview of UKR tanker, when they asked German instructor what he have to do if a minefield in front of attack and instructor answered "You should bypass minefield". 

Western 5-weeks training also can't bring up good officer "from zero". 

I have always thought the real military potential of Combat Mission was to teach people not to make mistakes exactly like , well, this one. Almost everyone who plays the game has tried to rush a prepared position and gotten wrecked. They really ought to give a copy of CMBS to every 90 day wonder Ukraine commissions. Are they even getting 90 days?

[Haiduk]

MICLIC usage by UKR troops in Zaporizhzhia oblast through thermal camera

 

[Haiduk]

Russian vehicles, destroyed in Staromajorske

 

[Haiduk]

Again about toughness of western armor. MaxxPro survived RPG shot in rear hull and then after explosion by mine, crew could abandon vehicle to escape on own legs

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

And today, like every day, I ask "how brittle is RU???"

And every day it's a great question. The conventional "wisdom" is that the RA can trade space for time. Meaning they can fall back on somewhat prepared positions and find a unit here or there to counterattack UA penetrations. Attritional war of movement. I don't buy this completely. However, without the ability to attack on a board front or deeply using airpower, the UA can't impose it's will on their enemy across many KMs of front meaning Russian defeats are local and can be contained. There is also the issue that UA operational advances are predictable. They need to throw a change up now and again so the poorly led RA defender can't lay in ambush along channelized approaches and then run for the hills. So the question becomes not if the RA is brittle, but does the UA have the combat power and operational tools to take advantage of it? BTW, I am noticing a trend now that it's become about taking ground, not killing Russians. As many have stated, maneuver's first aim is to kill the enemy, then ground is fait accompli. My concern is if the UA has enough power to run down fleeing Russians before they can dig in like they did over the winter. Battles of encirclement are not in Ukraine's wheelhouse. However, threatening their combat services is. Sort of like the bouncer ushers someone out the door with a storm shadow to their head. 

[Teufel]

From the horses mouth, summary from foreign instructor of situational update as of yesterday; 

The liberation of Staromaiorske was carried out by the 35th infantry brigade together with the "Arej" battalion of the 129th national guard brigade. This is interesting because the media is now spreading the information that it was a massive heavy attack from our side. We used several tanks and about 12 MRAP-type infantry vehicles, as well as a lot of mortar and artillery fire. The Russians enjoyed them for about a week and a half and when we destroyed enough of their armor that they retreated yesterday.

They left a lot of material, including tanks, which we will use now. So, the forces liberating the settlement were a combination of the elite force and the national guard, and according to reports from first-hand, the cooperation worked flawlessly. This shows the quality of our national guard forces, especially considering WHERE and HOW we started training those national guard soldiers in February 2022. We didn't even have uniforms for them and training took place indoors in basements and unfinished skyscrapers. We were able to move outdoors only in April 2022 and under very primitive conditions. It was impossible to train for attacks and entering the trenches, only theoretical training. Now our NG is as capable as the armies of many countries. Another interesting thing that appeared were videos of one of our vehicles approaching the barriers and dragon's teeth at Verbove.

A lone vehicle (probably unmanned) crosses the open ground, drives into the tank pit. The minefield is clearly missing and no Russians tried to destroy it upon approach. This confirms what I said earlier; the main line of defense is not as strong as the Russians claims. That is why we see so much resistance from Russians between the main line of defense and the front line itself. The quality of Russian' personal equipment is also shown by video footage from Staromaiorske itself; low quality and in many ways self-made. Even many attempts to design personal water purifiers show that they fall short of potable water. We can assume for probable reasons that the Russians holding the main line of defense will be retreating troops who are now fighting on the front line, troops that have not been allowed to rest for months.

Contrast this with the media's hysterical bluster that Russians have mobilize as many people as possible. If this is the case; why do you use the same forces and material delivery routes all the time. The Russian army is closer to collapse than one might think. We will see more liberated areas during the day, that's for sure.