How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, Seedorf81 said:

Like it or not, it's the gun that matters, not the physical size, or condition, or even the mental state of the one who holds it.

That's the point. You get it. We can't let evil regimes have a place in the world order merely because they threaten mass destruction. At some point a confrontation has to take place or evil will run roughshod across the planet. 

[Letter from Prague]

There are other ways of pushing back on Russia and interfering with their evil bull**** than nuclear war.

That Russia somehow made almost everyone forget that is Putin's greatest success.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

other ways of pushing back

I am not advocating nuclear war but advocating being more aggressive short of that. We will never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it. For example, would a no-fly zone over Ukraine instigate a nuclear war? Don't think so. Would a two week air campaign against Russian positions in Ukraine be dangerous. Maybe, maybe not. How did we come to the conclusion the current level of assistance to Ukraine is safe against escalation? We only know because we are giving it. I think measures directed to remove Russia from Ukraine, while not threatening Russia's existence, will not escalate. 

[Kinophile]

Maybe not initially but that's the whole point.  Escalation i is not a great metaphor because it's really Descent - slipping down a slope that has some grab-holds for a while but then -  an abyss,  with no more breakfast waffles & syrup for anyone. 

In Ireland there's the famous Cliffs of Moher. Theyre freakishly high and because they're coastal there's always a wind of some strength -  from three directions - from the land out to sea, from sea to land and from the bottom of the cliff upwards.

You can get right up to the edge and because they're sheer you can lean slightly over and look straight down. The second you do that the landward wind is pushing you forward and the seaward winds are pushing you back while the wind coming up the cliff is actually pulling you out. One extra strong gust by anyone of those unpredictable winds throws you off balance and down you go. It's a known phenomenon and catches tourists every year. You can safely walk up to the edge, but once you start looking over you are taking a real,  fatal risk.  

That's how I view Nuclear use -  descent in nothingness. 

[kevinkin]

When I visited the Cliffs of Moher I marveled at the view the cows had every day. Never thought about nuclear war. But I guess those winds from multiple directions sum up life itself and we carry on regardless. 

[Seedorf81]

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I am not advocating nuclear war but advocating being more aggressive short of that. We will never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it. For example, would a no-fly zone over Ukraine instigate a nuclear war? Don't think so. Would a two week air campaign against Russian positions in Ukraine be dangerous. Maybe, maybe not. How did we come to the conclusion the current level of assistance to Ukraine is safe against escalation? We only know because we are giving it. I think measures directed to remove Russia from Ukraine, while not threatening Russia's existence, will not escalate. 

Maybe a year ago I saw a stunning security-cam video of a couple that had a row with their bully-neighbor. After already months or years of tension, this argument was about the placement of garbage-containers.

After a few minutes of discussions, things heated up and yelling turned into screaming, anger into hate. Shoving became pushing and throwing of objects started. Neither the couple, nor the bully-neighbor showed any restraint.

Suddenly the bully walked away, back to his garage, but the woman from the couple kept screaming and throwing things, even when the bully disappeard in his garage. Where he picked up his assault rifle and then reappeared.

Well now.. instead of running away, or running for cover and calling the cops, that woman thought something like what you just wrote:

"We'll never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it",

and like you she thought that being a little more agressive towards the bully would not escalate.

She walked, screaming and yelling, up to the bully with the gun and, how surprising, got shot. Not fatally wounded she tried to crawl away, and her husband ran towards her to help. But the bully oh so calmly shot both off 'm point blanc until his magazine was empty. Then he went into garage, reloaded, and blew his own brains out.

That woman found the red line by inching towards it..

 

 

[cesmonkey]

Claim that Storm Shadow missiles were used to strike an oil depot and ammunition storage in Crimea:
https://t.me/rybar/49946
 

Quote

️ On the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles at Oktyabrsky in Crimea

Today, Ukrainian formations fired two British cruise missiles Storm Shadow at the Oktyabrskoye village in the Krasnogvardeysky district of the Crimean peninsula .

An oil storage facility and an ammunition depot of the Black Sea Fleet were hit: a large fire broke out in the incident zone, local residents report sounds of secondary detonation.

The authorities announced the evacuation of the population within a radius of five kilometers from the scene to temporary accommodation. To minimize risks, traffic on the Crimean railway was suspended. According to the latest information, there were no casualties.

 

[danfrodo]

Steve said:  "But what if the same force attacks separately, but concurrently, in 1km wide frontages with 10km between them?  This would no doubt stress out Russia's artillery and air, making it less likely they could clobber any one of them like they could if it was the only attack.  To make things even more challenging, what if after the first wave goes into action a second wave a few hours later hits in between where the previous ones hit?  Now you have two battalion sized forces engaged in combat, but no more than 1 company in one place at one time. "

Followed by TheCapt:  "These small scale nibblings are not designed to yield breakthroughs, they are designed to stress the RA system until a dispersed mass operation can be set in motion, which then may enable a more traditional mechanized breakout.  Ukraine is doing extra steps because that is how the battle space works."

This is what I love about the forum.  After seeing some posts yesterday I started wondering why UKR isn't attacking multiple tree lines along some sector at the same time more often?  I just wait overnight and I receive some pretty good answers.  The answer seems to be that they could attack more heavily but they have learned they need to continue weakening RU beforehand.  There's still nearly 3 months of good weather and ATACAMS plus other corrosive devices on the way plus more demining gear.  On top of that UKR is probably training many troops for what actually exists on the southern front. 

Maybe UKR just can't break through and doesn't know how.  Maybe they are actually being patient and smart, which they have generally been and seems likely.  I suppose we might not know until the end of September which it really is.

 

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Maybe a year ago I saw a stunning security-cam video of a couple that had a row with their bully-neighbor. After already months or years of tension, this argument was about the placement of garbage-containers.

After a few minutes of discussions, things heated up and yelling turned into screaming, anger into hate. Shoving became pushing and throwing of objects started. Neither the couple, nor the bully-neighbor showed any restraint.

Suddenly the bully walked away, back to his garage, but the woman from the couple kept screaming and throwing things, even when the bully disappeard in his garage. Where he picked up his assault rifle and then reappeared.

Well now.. instead of running away, or running for cover and calling the cops, that woman thought something like what you just wrote:

"We'll never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it",

and like you she thought that being a little more agressive towards the bully would not escalate.

She walked, screaming and yelling, up to the bully with the gun and, how surprising, got shot. Not fatally wounded she tried to crawl away, and her husband ran towards her to help. But the bully oh so calmly shot both off 'm point blanc until his magazine was empty. Then he went into garage, reloaded, and blew his own brains out.

That woman found the red line by inching towards it..

 

 

And another key takeaway here is that this is not Hollywood. In a Hollywood movie the good guy is protected by the script that says in the end standing up against the bully has to be rewarded.

No such protection in real life because real life is unfair. The only question here is if Putin and his regime have the nerves to see it through to the end or if they are bluffing. The nature of the "game" is that we only know it was a bluff once we call it. If it wasn't then we stood up to the bully but noone is rewarded. We simply all lose.

[kevinkin]

14 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Well now.. instead of running away, or running for cover and calling the cops,

Well that was an unfortunate episode. But it's also unfortunate that Ukraine can't run for cover and they did call the cops in the name of the US. But the cops have so far arrived with insufficient firepower to end the dispute. Maybe that will change. 

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This is what I love about the forum.  After seeing some posts yesterday I started wondering why UKR isn't attacking multiple tree lines along some sector at the same time more often?  I just wait overnight and I receive some pretty good answers.  The answer seems to be that they could attack more heavily but they have learned they need to continue weakening RU beforehand.  There's still nearly 3 months of good weather and ATACAMS plus other corrosive devices on the way plus more demining gear.  On top of that UKR is probably training many troops for what actually exists on the southern front. 

Maybe UKR just can't break through and doesn't know how.  Maybe they are actually being patient and smart, which they have generally been and seems likely.  I suppose we might not know until the end of September which it really is.

If there's only one manned line of defense, then attriting that line and supporting stuff (artillery, ew) seems like a good bet before dealing with the minefields, but as was said above coordinated attacks on a wide front might make faster progress. Especially since Russia will have more Lancets and FPV drones as the fall approaches.

Maybe Ukraine is trying to drain Russian logistics extra hard- Storm Shadow on depots, then the bridge, then attack in various areas and wait for Russia to retreat???

Or, maybe Ukraine is waiting for something to happen in Russia, ie the hangover from the Wagner's March to Moscow. Clearly something happened (I hold to my theory- shared with Girkin- that Prigogine won, but wants Putin as a puppet), but who knows how it will play out.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

I am not advocating nuclear war but advocating being more aggressive short of that. We will never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it. For example, would a no-fly zone over Ukraine instigate a nuclear war? Don't think so. Would a two week air campaign against Russian positions in Ukraine be dangerous. Maybe, maybe not. How did we come to the conclusion the current level of assistance to Ukraine is safe against escalation? We only know because we are giving it. I think measures directed to remove Russia from Ukraine, while not threatening Russia's existence, will not escalate. 

The West itself doesn't even have to pull the trigger, the Ukrainians are more than willing to pull the trigger themselves. They just don't have enough triggers to pull. We can give them some. We don't.

EDIT: my favorite pun from today: "it's Strelkover".

Edited July 22, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is why I am convinced this is shaping.  By employing this probing and poking strategy they are obviously doing so for a reason.  Most likely to draw out RA HVT such as artillery.  These small scale nibblings are not designed to yield breakthroughs, they are designed to stress the RA system until a dispersed mass operation can be set in motion, which then may enable a more traditional mechanized breakout.  Ukraine is doing extra steps because that is how the battle space works.

This is both shaping and first phase of offensive simultainously. Now we concentrate a pressure on two main sectors - very narrow section between Robotyne and Verbove, the second - more wide section on V.Novosilka salient. And two auxiliary sections, directed to Vasylivka and Polohy. If the enemy has so strong minefields and fortifications we have to try to breach it in narrow places - meter by meter, instead to throw several brigades on mines and ATGM positions on large part of front. So, the same 47th and 65th brigades doing now "a shaping operation, but along with this its also breaching skirmish line and securing the corridor, which already is demining by our sappers. I think, when we will come to main line behind Robotyne - Verbove line (or even breach it), some reserve forces will be directed through this corridor to operative space.  

BTW, even our experts recognize, both UKR and RUS armies Commands lost old Soviet capabilities to provide mass combined arms operations  

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Claim that Storm Shadow missiles were used to strike an oil depot and ammunition storage in Crimea:
https://t.me/rybar/49946
 

 

Who hasn't access to TG, here one of videos. Powerful detonations. This is the second large ammo dump in Crimea, hit during the week. 

All population is evacuating in radius of 5 km. Railway movement is stopped. 

The map of strikes in Crimea on this week

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

BTW, even our experts recognize, both UKR and RUS armies Commands lost old Soviet capabilities to provide mass combined arms operations

Gawd, who wants them?  Expensive and likely useless.  Last military to try old-school Soviet mass in the modern context was Iraq, and we all know how that worked out.

[Haiduk]

The group of Russian RIA "Novosti" journalists were hit by DPICM ammunition, when they drove to Pyatykhatky area to make a reportage about UKR DPICM usage %) All got wounds, but one of them has died - he was well-known propagandist in Russia - Rostislav Zhuravlyov. Recently he belonged to  National-Bolshevik Party and in 2014 participated in so-called "Russian spring" on Donbass. He participated in seizing of administrative buildings in Donetsk and later was a fighter of LNR battalion "Zarya" (now 4th motor-rifle brigade of LNR) 

Also on southern flank of Bakhmut was shelled a car with officers of volunteer recon-assault brigade of DVU (Donbas Volunteers Union). In the vehicle also was Aleksandr Boroday, brigade comamnder, Duma deputy and chief of DVU. He also was active partipator of turmoils on Donbas in 2014 and for a short time was a first "prime-minister" of DNR. Two officers of brigade HQ were wounded, but Boroday still unharnmed. Somebody lost a chance to get award %)

 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gawd, who wants them?  Expensive and likely useless.  Last military to try old-school Soviet mass in the modern context was Iraq, and we all know how that worked out.

It's meant even coordinated operations between several different army "organisms" like BTGs already caused very big tense of command lines. If you add here different volunteers, units of other branches, aviation etc, all this multiplies chaos and collisions in command. If Soviet army had experience how to rule operations in which participated several armies, that now both UKR and RUS armies suffer big problems even with several brigades-level coordinations. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[alison]

3 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

My frustration is centered around Russia's use of force against purely civilian targets, with seemingly no counter other than some verbal condemnations and defensive weapons against missiles/drones.   IMO, right or wrong, Russia should be clearly warned that attacks against civilian targets will result in specific actions against the delivery vehicles of those actions.  (If militarily possible which is out of my area of expertise.)    NATO/US would supply a limited number of weapons that would be used to specifically target the ships/subs/planes that delivery civilian carnage.

Obviously targeting civilians is bad and it is a war crime. But civilians are being attacked all over the world - by all sorts of regimes and terror groups - and the west has long decided not to play whac-a-mole with every set of bad guys on the planet. In many cases the best these targeted peoples can hope for from the west is a sternly worded speech in the UN. They're not getting weapons, they're not getting ammo, they're not getting armor, they're not getting planes. But Ukraine is getting all those things and more.

We have to pick our battles. Ukraine is already getting a lot of support from the west. Could it be more? Sure. It could also be an awful lot less. I understand why people wish for more. It is tempting to imagine that just one more delivery or one clean strike would at least reduce civilian casualties, if nothing else. But there is no magic wand. This is war. Lots of people are going to die. It's awful.

Either way, I don't think it's a very constructive conversation. Every time it comes up on this thread we end up with pages of back and forth that don't change anyone's opinions, meanwhile actual war news and analysis gets lost in the mix.

[Haiduk]

TB2 Bayraktars still in use and even have a strike missions. One of them was shot down several days ago near Heroys'ke vilage of Kherson oblast with ammunition load (Kinburn spit)

On the video Russians claims TB2 dropped two guided bombs, but operator decided to hit more targets and went on the next strafe. For this time EW system has supressed control lines of UCAV and it switched to emergency mode, going to 1000 m altitude and circling around. After this it was shot down with Igla-1 MANPAD.  Due to the manufacturer's table information this TB2 was produced in November of 2021 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

Ukrainian divers training in Scotland

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-66274111

Edited July 22, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Haiduk]

The crew of this Humvee got the second birthday. More likely this was not artillery, but Grad barrage

 

[kevinkin]

Timely report/summary seeing all this is top of mind:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/zelensky-blames-western-aid-delays

“Ukraine has a substantial amount of combat power that it has not yet committed to the fight, and it is trying to choose its moment to commit that combat power to the fight when it will have the maximum impact on the battlefield,” Sullivan said. “And we are in close consultation with Ukrainians on the conditions for that. But ultimately, that's a decision they will make, and it is at that moment ... that we will really see what the likely results of this counteroffensive will be.”

Zelensky, who made a point to “thank all of our partners,” mentioning Biden by name, implied that this moment could be in the offing.

“We are approaching a moment when relevant actions can gain pace,” he said, “because we are already going through some mines locations, and we are demining these areas.”

The last sentence is vague but I'll say the glass is half full for now. 

[Haiduk]

The video of consequence of next "meat assault" between Maryinka and Krasnohorivka. Russians tried to turn back own position, which they had been holding since 2014 and lost several weeks ago. In this atatck they lost 5 tanks and 3 BMPs destroyed and damaged. Though, some sources say UKR troops withdrew from there and this mine ventillation trunk now in gray zone. Russians say nothing about results 

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Bradley with BRAT ERA kit

 

[Haiduk]

National Guard "Azov" brigade destroys Russian D-30 howitzer with own French TRF-1 howitzer. Enemy positin  was geolocated on NW ouskirt of Novofedorivka village of Zaporizhzhia oblast. This is NE from Verbove, but this is direction to Polohy town. So, on this direction at least two National Guard brigades of "Offensive Guard"are involved (12th special purpose "Azov" and 15th operative "Kara-Dag") as well as elements of 11th public order security brigade  

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk