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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Patriot missiles also can be dangerous for citizens during ballistic interceptions - this is an accident happened on Monday during mass daytime Iskander strike. Looks like one Patriot interceptor failed and fell with explosion near the bridge in Dnipro.  The bridge was closed for two days and this caused big traffic jams in Kyiv in NE districts.

Interesting that GUR office is close to this place, so Russian propaganda claimed "GUR HQ was successfully hit" %)

 

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting that GUR office is close to this place, so Russian propaganda claimed "GUR HQ was successfully hit" %)

This one time they may be close to truth, though- GUR building seems smoked a little. Could be debris, of course.

https://twitter.com/KrukuOne/status/1663972013688406016

 

Also, Ukrainians are reportedly heavylit shelling Shebekino border town, with artillery and tanks providing indirect fire. "Free Russians" also claim to come back soon:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1664178016266727426

 

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In any case, the fact that Kadyrov's TikTokers are being pushed into the meat grinder is significant.  To me it is more evidence that Russia doesn't have any backup forces.  Even more evidence of this is also in yesterday's ISW report stating that, once again, they have confirmed DPR and other "irregular" forces being moved from Avdiivka to Bakhmut to take over positions held by Wagner.

No way they will be used as Wagnerovtsy were. Except maybe 2 battalions of personal guard, it's still more tribal militia than regular army. VERY susceptible to casualties, quite possibly largely untrained in advanced tactics. If they will be indeed kept in trenches to hold the line it will be problematic enough for Russian command. Not metioning, they hate to actually dig those trenches or performing any manual labour (this was also confirmed by some Russian milbloggers early in the war).

I suspect Kadyrov is bragging and most will be (again, traditionally) used in a role of "small NKVD".

Edited by Beleg85
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12 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Besides both being Slavic languages I'm not sure I see any connected. Am I missing something or is this another bizarre anti-Ukrainian comment coming from Zoran Milanović?

Ustaši were supported by Italian fascists and german nazis in WWII. Not so good, right? Maybe Milanović connects " Slava Ukraini " with Stepan Bandera?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

Edited by Ales Dvorak
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Gepard is a special beast, very well liked all around it seems...Who would have thought of that? It went into retirement 2012.

Global Military Products Inc,* Tampa, Florida, was awarded an $118,375,740 firm-fixed-price contract for the purchase and delivery of Gepard 35 mm air defense systems. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. Work will be performed in Amman, Jordan, with an estimated completion date of May 30, 2024. Fiscal 2010 Foreign Military Sales (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) funds in the amount of $118,375,740 were obligated at the time of the award. Army Contracting Command, Newark, New Jersey, is the contracting activity (W15QKN-23-C-0012). 

> U.S. Department of Defense > Contract

 

 

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10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Shaping for something big? Maybe...

 

 

I have a weird sense about that western axis.  Most are writing it off because of the river crossing requirement but there are a lot of pluses for doing the big shove here

- Russian force strength are weakest in this area because they also think the river will make it too hard

- Right flank is the Black Sea as opposed to double flanks just about everywhere else.

- Bottle up the RA in Crimea and then push left towards Melitopol makes a lot of sense.

- several MSR options that could support at least 3 axis of advance

If the UA could get across that river in several locations and sustain it, they could crash in on that front, and then do a push down from the north in the center simultaneously it would likely paralyze the RA.  

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1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Ustaši were supported by Italian fascists and german nazis in WWII. Not so good, right? Maybe Milanović connects " Slava Ukraini " with Stepan Bandera?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

Maybe, but my understanding is that Slava Ukraini was first used before WW2 even happened. I think the slogan was just used historically by many groups who wanted an independent Ukraine from Russia. Wikipedia says it first gained its popularity with Ukrainians during their 1917 War of Independence.

Edited by Harmon Rabb
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32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have a weird sense about that western axis.  Most are writing it off because of the river crossing requirement but there are a lot of pluses for doing the big shove here

- Russian force strength are weakest in this area because they also think the river will make it too hard

- Right flank is the Black Sea as opposed to double flanks just about everywhere else.

- Bottle up the RA in Crimea and then push left towards Melitopol makes a lot of sense.

- several MSR options that could support at least 3 axis of advance

If the UA could get across that river in several locations and sustain it, they could crash in on that front, and then do a push down from the north in the center simultaneously it would likely paralyze the RA.  

A successful push over the river even just to Perekop would effectively cut off the Crimean peninsula and a follow on offensive to Berdiansk or Mariupol might just bag most of the Russian army to the west of that point. Russian GLOC are based on a few main roads and singular rail lines across the front. It would be audacious but that sort of operation solves some big complications and plays against Russian vulnerabilities. 

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40 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Maybe, but my understanding is that Slava Ukraini was first used before WW2 even happened. I think the slogan was just used historically by many groups who wanted an independent Ukraine from Russia. Wikipedia says it first gained its popularity with Ukrainians during their 1917 War of Independence.

Maybe the slogan got contaminated during WWII.

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19 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Maybe the slogan got contaminated during WWII.

No, this is Milanovich is contaminated by "Russian world" and probably Russian money %) In Russian eyes any mention of Ukraine as a nation or country, different from Russians is obvious "fascism and treason of Russian unity"

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Always good for a laugh...

 

 

kerch bridge was built on extremely difficult soil. Leading to highly specific engineering. Which not only caused extensive foundation, but also the methods of the construction and were untypical. I wouldnt be surprised if in the rebuilding process without foreign expertise, people decide to use the ol time civil engineering secret formula: 'do the result of this calculation x1,5 just to be sure".

apart from maybe undetected fractures due to the first collapse, adding unplanned weight and stiffness might not have been the best tactic for this bridge specifically.

Edited by Yet
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While there is a meeting now taking place in Moldova between various leadrs from countries belonging to European Political Community including pres. Zelensky, it seems there are finally decisions to seriously help rearm local military forces against Russian destabilization efforts. PL government send (reportedly, but I don't know why they announce it publically...) 2 Hercules and 4 Casa with small arms, personal equipment and ammo. Small but interesting development, since this southern direction is usually dealed by France/Romania/Italy:

https://twitter.com/Kaminski_M_/status/1664200773905907715

Edited by Beleg85
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More infighting within the Russian military sphere.   How can the Russian MOD, Wagner, the Chechens, multiple PMCs, DPR, LPR, etc. co-ordinate actions, logistics and seamlessly work together as the Ukrainians increase pressure with their upcoming offensive?

Who will stand and who will fold?  Who gets ammo when it's running short?  This just seems to be a sh!tshow waiting to happen.

 

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56 minutes ago, Yet said:

kerch bridge was built on extremely difficult soil. Leading to highly specific engineering. Which not only caused extensive foundation, but also the methods of the construction and were untypical. I wouldnt be surprised if in the rebuilding process without foreign expertise, people decide to use the ol time civil engineering secret formula: 'do the result of this calculation x1,5 just to be sure".

Mostly correct,  but the columns were not rebuilt, just the decks were replaced. 

The fun part of these photos is that those are vertical cracks, extending from base to top. You can bet a billion rubles those fractures extend further down. These seem like compressive failure cracks in the concrete,  which could be caused by the concrete itself being of shoddy manufacture and/or casting,  the rebar inside twisting or shifting (crap steel,  bad arrangement of rebar, insufficient rebar) or (and we know this to be the structural history of previous bridges in the area) the foundations are on the ****ty side of a stress curve. The ground below the bridge is notoriously unreliable in different and separate ways. 

The extent and consistency of the fractures implies internal failure within the columns extending down to the base, which itself doesn't show cracking,  that we can see.

The columns are not clad so this isn't external damage to a system separate from the primary structure -  this is the primary structure.

Also,  the visual proof its happening in both columns and showing similar patterning implies similar causation and propagation. Because the columns were built in identical fashion this makes sense.

That also proves that it is not a single point failure, but a systemic or area failure affecting both columns. 

I'm curious if these columns are near or below the blast zone. That would help explain how the cracking started, which combined with any of the factors above would start a slow but sure, internal failure cascade. It could also just be a **** build. 

Further visible development of the failure would be bulging, sections/plates of concrete falling off and exposing the rebar,  warping or twisting of the columns proper and fracturing at the connection zone where the columns meet the base. 

Hard to know the timeline,  it comes down to just how bad is the construction,  how heavy and constant is the live load,  if any repairs or additional support added (unlikely to stop it  and short term at best)  and weathering. Six months to failure?  

An army and foreign population trying to evacuate would stress everything nicely... 

A storm shadow to the base of this arrangement would be ideal. 

Over to you,  @chrisl... 

Edited by Kinophile
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Serviceman of 14th radar brigade shot down approaching "Lancet" with shotgun. 

Reportedly civil shotguns are becoming popular among UKR servicemen like additional anti-drone weapon, which allow to fight with commercial drones on low altitudes.

 

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

No, this is Milanovich is contaminated by "Russian world" and probably Russian money %) In Russian eyes any mention of Ukraine as a nation or country, different from Russians is obvious "fascism and treason of Russian unity"

From Wiki: The greeting "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!" later became the official slogan of Stepan Bandera's wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, the OUN-B, in April 1941

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