How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[RandomCommenter]

22 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I wouldn't read those documents in that spirit- US must balance help provided (likely sharper strategy vouched by DoD) with more global needs to contain Russia and its atomic arsenal (my very limited understanding of division as to strategy re UA points to Department of State as "doves").

I'm reading a book at the moment, Overreach: The Inside Story of Putin and Russia’s War Against Ukraine by Owen Matthews.

https://www.amazon.com/Overreach-Inside-Russias-Against-Ukraine-ebook/dp/B0B79FVY1J

One thing I read last night, which I had wondered about at the time was why the US stopped Poland sending some 1980s era Mig fighter jets back I think it was in May last year or thereabouts. I mean it just didn't make sense to me.

According to the author, there was a backdoor between the US and China where China asked the US to stop the handover of these aircraft in exchange for China putting pressure on Russia to take nuclear weapons off the agenda.

I don't know if it's true or not. But if so, it's interesting. Sometimes the US is juggling interests that are not visible to us at the time.

 

[RandomCommenter]

15 hours ago, quakerparrot67 said:

i believe the phrase is 'perfidious albion', but not completely sure where it comes from.

I believe that this expression goes back to the Treaty of Limerick of 1691.

(See here if interested for example http://www.irishidentity.com/stories/limericktreaty.htm) 

Although I understand that the French maintain that they had the expression even before then.

 

(Apologies, paxroma and astrophel had already answered this)

Edited April 12, 2023 by RandomCommenter

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Adding ‘Cope Cages’ To TOS-1A (The Warzone)

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Sounds like your democracy is getting tuned to the EU type bureaucracy 

I don't understand how the same deputies, who voted for reducing of salary now has voted for it turning back %)  

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

According to the author, there was a backdoor between the US and China where China asked the US to stop the handover of these aircraft in exchange for China putting pressure on Russia to take nuclear weapons off the agenda.

I don't know if it's true or not. But if so, it's interesting. Sometimes the US is juggling interests that are not visible to us at the time.

As powerful and generally accurate modern OSINT is, it is still only showing us the "O" part (Open).  There's no way to know if something like the above is true or not, but we do know is true is there's a lot of things like this going on that are not out in the Open.  Even when we hear direct statements from leaders that is generally only the tip of the iceberg.

One of the biggest groundbreaking parts of this entire war happened before it started.  The Biden Admin's decision to put a lot of things out into the Open that are usually kept secret was one of the most incredible things I've seen in my lifetime.  But even then, we were only given the high level summary.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I don't understand how the same deputies, who voted for reducing of salary now has voted for it turning back %)  

This is actually a GOOD sign of the strength of your democracy.  Politicians are supposed to listen and correct a mistake if they have made one.  I read the arguments against the salary reduction from soldiers and many were valid.  Ukraine can not afford to piss off its volunteers, so I think it is good that they reversed the decision.

I understand why the Rada made the decision to reduce the salaries and there is some good reasons for it.  However, from my minimal knowledge of the action it was not a well thought out decision.  There were too many important details to take into consideration and the law, as written, did not do that.  If the problems can't be fixed very quickly (and it looked impossible to do quickly) then the best thing to do is go back to the old way for now.

Steve

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I don't understand how the same deputies, who voted for reducing of salary now has voted for it turning back %)  

Hehe, politicians work in mysterious ways. 
Although I agree with @Battlefront.com, better to reverse a policy which in the end didn't work out as intended/expected than to stick with a bad decision. The other side of the coin is that if such things happens too often, the population will lose part of it's faith in the parliament/institutions. 

 

[kevinkin]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

French TRF1 howitzer somewhere on Donbas

Been thinking about anti-UAV netting for a while now. There is an innovation somewhere. Not in the concept, but in the rapid deployment and recovery of the overhead protection for units on the move. 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, from my minimal knowledge of the action it was not a well thought out decision.  There were too many important details to take into consideration and the law, as written, did not do that.  If the problems can't be fixed very quickly (and it looked impossible to do quickly) then the best thing to do is go back to the old way for now.

This decision had a logic if our army would be supplied on proper level. But when unit leaves frontline for rotation, it need to restore of own combat capabilities. For which money soldiers can get new pick-ups or to repair damaged, to buy new uniform and gears, to get new optic, radios, drones, often even a fuel for their pick-ups? The state gives only a weapon, ammo, uniform (not always suitable and good quality, now many compleins from those, who received UKR uniform, made by order in Turkey), some rare Motorolas, gears and optic, and fuel for "shtat" vehciles. All other soldiers buy - not only for crowdfunding money, but also for part of own salary. Because when some unit launches some money gathering, mostly they already have 30-50 % of money from own salary and rest come as donates. Minus 70 000 is turned out huge strike at combat capabilities. Because soldier now will forced to chose between to send money to family or to use it for own purposes and purposes of own unit.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

82 mm 2B9M "Vasilyok" auto-mortar 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

82 mm 2B9M "Vasilyok" auto-mortar 

 

 

Of all the Soviet weaponry, this is one of the systems I've always wondered why the West didn't copy.  It makes so much sense to have an indirect fire weapon capable of rapid RoF.  Having it on wheels is also helpful for avoiding counter battery fire.  However, I have faith that the reason why this idea "never caught on" with the West is that there is some significant downsides I've not thought of or had explained to me.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This decision had a logic if our army would be supplied on proper level. But when unit leaves frontline for rotation, it need to restore of own combat capabilities. For which money soldiers can get new pick-ups or to repair damaged, to buy new uniform and gears, to get new optic, radios, drones, often even a fuel for their pick-ups? The state gives only a weapon, ammo, uniform (not always suitable and good quality, now many compleins from those, who received UKR uniform, made by order in Turkey), some rare Motorolas, gears and optic, and fuel for "shtat" vehciles. All other soldiers buy - not only for crowdfunding money, but also for part of own salary. Because when some unit launches some money gathering, mostly they already have 30-50 % of money from own salary and rest come as donates. Minus 70 000 is turned out huge strike at combat capabilities. Because soldier now will forced to chose between to send money to family or to use it for own purposes and purposes of own unit.

I think the bigger problem was the way soldiers are rotated.  A unit might be in combat for a while and then rotated to the rear.  I saw that higher level commanders were unsure if they should change the soldier's pay if they didn't know the unit would be rotated forward again soon.  From the point of the soldiers, they are frontline and should always be treated as such.

Other complaints I saw were from units that are permanently on guard for enemy action, but the section they are guarding is not considered frontline.  Such as 2nd line along Belarus or perhaps around Transnistria.  This is very different than a supply unit that is permanently stationed in Lviv, for example, that is never intended to see combat.  Yet their lives are on hold just like frontline soldiers.

Another problem is incentivizing soldiers to fill specialized and critical positions in the rear.  You do not want a great mechanic to volunteer for the front just because of pay!!  You also don't want a great mechanic to not sign up at all because he is able to make more money fixing broken cars.

It's a difficult and complicated problem to deal with.  The original legislation did not seem very well constructed for the complex reality.  It was a mistake to pass the law as it was written, which is bad.  However, everybody makes mistakes.  People who make mistakes need to be rewarded more than punished.

Steve

[Simcoe]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of all the Soviet weaponry, this is one of the systems I've always wondered why the West didn't copy.  It makes so much sense to have an indirect fire weapon capable of rapid RoF.  Having it on wheels is also helpful for avoiding counter battery fire.  However, I have faith that the reason why this idea "never caught on" with the West is that there is some significant downsides I've not thought of or had explained to me.

Steve

I'm guessing it falls into a weird middle ground between man portable and heavy weapon.

Too heavy and a logistical burden for light infantry and too small/weak for a heavy mechanized team.

I can also imagine it's not very accurate and could lead to collateral damage in the COIN heavy operation of the past decades.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3360231/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-austin-hosted-bilat-meeting-with-denys-shmyhal-prime/

Very optimistic thinking:

Quote

We sincerely applaud the decision of the U.S. to join the tank coalition and supplying us with Abrams tanks but also to provide Bradley and Stryker infantry fighting vehicles. For our counterattack to be successful, we require an increase in such supplies. 

In a modern warfare, air superiority is crucial. That is why Ukraine is initiating the building of a new so-called fire -- fire -- fighter jet coalition and we are inviting the United States to become its most important participant. America can, once again, demonstrate its leadership by providing Ukraine with F-15 or F-16 aircrafts. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

This seems to be a mega waste of time and resources:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11956187/Putins-45-mile-long-mega-trench-Russian-troops-dig-huge-defensive-fortification.html

About as elastic as old fashion window pane. 

 

Holy crow.  Talk about Cope Trench Feever.

This war has reinforced the experiences of WW2, which is the best forms of defense are multi layered "hedgehog" positions that interlock with other similar positions so as to limit the ability to bypass.  If one line of a hedgehog is defeated there is no significant breakthrough potential.  With a single trench like this?  Ridiculously easy to breach.  And once breached, the rest of it serves no purpose.

Steve

[Vic4]

Haven’t seen this posted here yet. Looks like they’re trying to round up the “refuseniks”. 
 

https://apple.news/AdmOuzEn1R7aq1VWT3JuAqA

[Seminole]

SEOUL, April 12 (Reuters) - South Korea has reached an agreement to lend the United States 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells that could give Washington greater flexibility to supply Ukraine with ammunition, a South Korean newspaper reported on Wednesday.

The DongA Ilbo newspaper cited unidentified government sources as saying South Korea decided to "lend" the ammunition instead of selling, to minimise the possibility of South Korean shells being used in the Ukraine conflict.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Haven’t seen this posted here yet. Looks like they’re trying to round up the “refuseniks”. 
 

https://apple.news/AdmOuzEn1R7aq1VWT3JuAqA

Not posted yet, but it's been mentioned all over the place in the various sources I check into.  ISW summarized it yesterday as fusing traditional Soviet

SW previously forecasted that the Kremlin would marry Soviet-style societal control measures with big data and 21st-century information technology to intensify control over the Russian population after Russia used facial recognition, QR codes, and mobile device geo-tracking technology to enforce a draconian COVID-19 quarantine in 2020.

Steve

[Haiduk]

The story of first day of war, how Russians seized and occupied Chornobyl nuclear power plant. Short takes, based on theese two long articles (UKR only):

 https://graty.me/uk/hlopczi-vi-serjozno-vi-rozumiєte-kudi-їdete-istoriya-rosijskoї-okupacziї-chornobilskoї-atomnoї-stancziї-ta-zoni-vidchuzhennya/

https://graty.me/uk/monologue/ya-skazala-choloviku-shho-zroblyu-vse-shhob-jogo-i-hlopcziv-povernuti-monolog-golovi-obєdnannya-rodin-zahisnikiv-chornobilskoї-aes/

Chornobyl NPP is guarded by 1st National Guard separate battalion of especially important objects security. It's dislocated in Slavutych town (the town of plant personnel, which was built in 1987-88 for evacuated inhabitants of Prypyat' town). Battalion had two special commandant services (eqv. of companies), special purpose platoon and different support&supply units. Battalion had several armored vehcles - Kozak-2, BTR-70, MAZ trucks with armored cabine. 

Due to radiation safety servicemen guarded NPP by 12 hour shifts. Like and personnel of NPP they came to NPP by EMU from Slavutych. Interesting, that in Soviet time railways were put from Slavutych to NPP through "salient" of Belarus territory, so in order to reach NPP, EMU had to cross twice not only rivers (Dnipro and Prypyat'), but also Belarusian border.  

Ahead of probable invasion, the enchanced security mode on NPP was introduced as far as at the beginning of February. So, in the day of invasion in Chornobyl zone were 178 National Guard servicemen, 90 of NPP personnel, fire department, medical personnel of Chornobyl's medical center and... four so-called "stalkers" - illegal tourists, who often sneak to prohibited zone (especially it became popular after issuing of S.T.A.L.K.E.R game) - later, they being scared, had found a shelter on NPP and spent a month in occupation. Together about 300 of people.

At 5:24 Feb 24th  chief of the shift #3 decalred emergency situation readiness and ordered to turn off NPP backlighting. Later he spotted two missiles launched from Belarusian territory, flying south. At 7:00 next shift of personnel and NGU servicemen had to arrive by EMU, but it didn't depart from Slavutych, because the bridges through Prypyat' and Dnipro were blown up. Russian forces started own advance toward Chornobyl from two directions - from Vil'cha cross-border point and from "salient" - from Komaryn. They spent some time to supress some UKR screen forces of Border Guards and AFU, so first Russian troops reached NPP at 14:00. This was combined forces of VDV, motor-rifle units of 35th CAA and Rosgvardiya special forces from Syberian Rosgvardiya troops district. They had armored vehciles and at least tank platoon - one tank approached to administrative building. Unlike their colleagues from 2nd sep. EIOS battalion from Enerhodar, which later engaged Russians in Zaporizhzhia NPP, commanders of 1st battalion didn't order to fire and accepted Russians offering to negotiation - after three hours of talks UKR garrison lay down the weapon, but was achieved an agreement that Russians shouldn't enter to working space of NPP operators. On the NPP territory Russians captured at least 2 Kozak-2 and 2 BTR-70

UKR soldiers were moved to the two facilities and initially even continued maintain security of NPP together with Russian Rosgvardiya, but without a weapon (Russian media wrote about this as example of "partnership" and that Russian army as if fights only against "nationalist battalions", but not against usual soldiers). But already through some time all UKR soldiers were prohibited to leave their places. 

 On 20th of March there was agreement achieved about rotation of NPP personnel, 46 volunteers from Slavutych have to substitute 50 of personnel on NPP. 40 workers of shift #3 made decision to stay on NPP. Personnel from Slavutych was moved through the Dnipro river by one boat for several crosses. Next they were embarked to buses and under guard of Russian BTRs moved to NPP. Except 50 employees of shift #3, Russians allowed to leave 9 National Guard servicemen (8 women and one man with oncology), one woman from fire department and four "stalkers"

Before withdrawal Russians captured Slavutych town without any tactical reason. The town was in deep rear of "O" grouping, attacking on Brovary (eastern suburb of Kyiv) and Chernihiv. Since 18th of March Russians became to shell periodically town outskirts and on 26th of March began advance. Weak DFTG unit couldn't stop Russians and after the short fight, losing 3 KIA abandoned own positions. Russian eneterd to the town and arrested town mayor. The chief of shift on NPP had a talk with Russian commander and said personnel stops any contacts and interaction with Russian troops until Russian unit leave Slavutych. Russian officer called to own HQ, but got an answer "There are no our troops near Slavutych". But on next day Russian troops abandoned the town. 

Since 30th of March Russians were preapring to leave NPP. They took away EW complex with 35 m tall antena and also took away ammunition. On 31st of March they brought Rosgvardiya "avtozaks" to NPP and became to place UKR servicemen to its, violating an agreemennt, that they will not take prisoners. Before withdrawal Russians severly looted and crashed almost all in administrative building and even one soldier took radioactive material from laboratory. 

UKR soldiers were moved to Belarusian Mozyr city and deployed on abandoned farm. Since some time they were moved to Russia. One of soldiers, reliazed from captivity told after arrival Russians made them so-called "meet" - jail security beaten everybody to unconscious. They were kept in small prison cells 3х6 meters per 10 men. In the cell - the table, bench, washstand and fenced toilet. To sit on bench allowed only when you are eating. In other time you can either stand or walk in the cell. No heating, so the tempereture in the cell almost the same, like outside. They had poor ration of spoiled vegetables and some porridge. Best "dishes" were semi-welded fish one time for a week, raw potatoes in boiled water, and some bread and tea. They had three meals in the day, but portions was so as just not to die of hunger.

In present time only 39 servicemen of 1st EIOS battalion from 169 captured liberated from Russian prison  

Edited April 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crow.

Given the Russian fondness to drinking, they are strategically building the world's longest bar. And the special is the Grave Digger, a imprecise combination of vodka, rum, gin, tequila, triple sec, whiskey, Scotch, lager beer, and stout beer. 
If there is a supply problem, just double up on what's available. 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Seminole]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Soviet-style societal control measures with big data and 21st-century information technology to intensify control over the Russian population after Russia used facial recognition, QR codes, and mobile device geo-tracking technology to enforce a draconian COVID-19 quarantine in 2020.

Interesting (dare I say encouraging?) to see this kind of surveillance termed 'Soviet-style'.

It was all the rage in 2020:

https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-tracking-citizens-phones-coronavirus-2020-3#taiwan-can-tell-when-quarantined-people-have-left-the-house-6

[akd]

43 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Most of this is probably embassy / diplomatic mission security.  Numbers are too small to be much more.  Maybe some liaison work with Ukr staff.

[Fernando]

https://elpais.com/espana/2023-04-12/el-ministro-de-defensa-ucranio-revela-que-espana-le-ha-dado-misiles-antibuque-harpoon-para-alejar-a-la-flota-rusa-de-sus-costas.html

[...] The Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, revealed this Wednesday in Madrid that Spain has delivered Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Kiev that are serving to keep the Russian fleet away from the coasts of his country in the Black Sea. Reznikov thanked his Spanish counterpart, Margarita Robles, for her participation in the coalition that supplies Ukraine with a weapons system that "is guaranteeing that African countries receive Ukrainian grain and survive famine."

Until now, Spain had not reported the delivery of these anti-ship missiles to Kyiv. In her last appearance in Congress, Robles spoke generically of the supply of "five naval systems" that would correspond, according to the sources consulted, to five Harpoon AGM-84 missiles at a cost of one million dollars per unit. The minister has excused herself, alleging that Spain acts with discretion and does not detail the material it delivers to Kyiv, unless the Ukrainians themselves decide to make it public. [...]

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3360231/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-austin-hosted-bilat-meeting-with-denys-shmyhal-prime/

Very optimistic thinking:

 

Clever use of emojis.

Well no need for me to say what I think about the Ukrainian Air Force receiving F-16s. Pretty sure most regular users know by now.