Kinophile Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Persuant to our thoughts on Russia's loss of influence in its Near Abroad: https://www.universetoday.com/160720/kazakhstan-seizes-russias-launch-facility-at-baikonur/ Not very verified, I'm looking up some more. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 7:59 AM, Dmytro Gadomskyi said: Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages. @Dmytro Gadomskyi how are you doing? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 One of the preceding articles mentioned Condoleezza Rice and it reminded me that for someone who is very knowledgeable on Russian affairs, (and who I happen to respect a lot), we've heard very little from her over the past 13 months. I had to do some searching to even find anything, see below. Maybe it's because she's more of a conservative Republican, but I'd like to see her take a more prominent role in dealing with the Ukraine/Russia crisis. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/07/condoleezza-rice-robert-gates-ukraine-repel-russia/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/condoleezza-rice-former-secretary-of-state-face-the-nation-transcript-02-26-2023/ "We have- so I think we have to recognize that the Chinese-Russian relationship is perhaps more strategic than many of us had thought. That it really is a relationship that is aimed at the heart of U.S. power in the world. And that would say, then, these two are not divisible. So, if you want to say, let's just concentrate on the Indo Pacific, that's not going to work. And oh, by the way, many of our allies, Australia, Japan, fundamentally understand that. So, I would say to those who are going to run for office, be careful what you say. And I would just make one other point, if the American people see a world in which Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have won this engagement, this first volley, if you will, in the largest strategic picture, and they see that Ukrainian independence has been extinguished, and they know that the United States could have done something about it, I don't think that's going to be a very good message for a future president to have to deliver. " 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 hours ago, cesmonkey said: Is it better for Putin to think he's being successful at Bakhmut, or failing? If he thinks the's being successful, maybe he will take more risks offensively that will end up backfiring spectacularly? Bakhmut is simply Verdun redux, isn’t it? It’s the only read that makes sense, that Putin/Russia are convinced they’re extracting an intolerable toll with their methods, and that Ukraine must bow at some point under attrition. I expect the Ukrainians to have the better picture of how both sides are fairing, but they have the political consideration of avoiding defeat, beyond the tactical wisdom of the position. My hope is that the predominant reason the Ukrainians are fighting so hard here is because they’re seeing favorable tactical results in it even if they’re incrementally losing terrain to Russian methods. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said: One of the preceding articles mentioned Condoleezza Rice and it reminded me that for someone who is very knowledgeable on Russian affairs, (and who I happen to respect a lot), we've heard very little from her over the past 13 months. I had to do some searching to even find anything, see below. Maybe it's because she's more of a conservative Republican, but I'd like to see her take a more prominent role in dealing with the Ukraine/Russia crisis. The problem with Rice is that she threw her lot in with the worst sort of neocons out there. Which means pretty much everybody on the Democrat side doesn't trust or value her opinions and on the Republican side a huge chunk think even worse of the neocons than the Dems do. This leaves very few people (center right leaning) that think anything that she has to say is worth listening to. I happen to agree with you that she is smart and knowledgeable. I think her opinions should be listened to, far more than Kissenger for sure. The primary reason is that the neocons were not always wrong about how the world works. They were mostly wrong about how they went about, well, just about everything they did Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 20 minutes ago, Seminole said: Bakhmut is simply Verdun redux, isn’t it? It’s the only read that makes sense, that Putin/Russia are convinced they’re extracting an intolerable toll with their methods, and that Ukraine must bow at some point under attrition. I expect the Ukrainians to have the better picture of how both sides are fairing, but they have the political consideration of avoiding defeat, beyond the tactical wisdom of the position. My hope is that the predominant reason the Ukrainians are fighting so hard here is because they’re seeing favorable tactical results in it even if they’re incrementally losing terrain to Russian methods. I've said this since the beginning of this war... Ukraine's primary goal is to kill as many Russians as fast as they can while retaining the ability to continue doing it until Russia is defeated. So far Bakhmut fits this concept very firmly. The only concern is that Ukrainian losses are so high that they start risking other opportunities to kill even more Russians (and take back land, which is now a more important goal than it was this time last year). There are no signs of this being an actual problem, but certainly one that has got us fretting a little bit. Of course the alternative we've talked about many times is for Ukraine to pull back and defend from other terrain. This poses three problems: it gives Putin what he wants and no good comes from that. defending from other positions may produce less favorable loss ratio. At the very least, it's hard to imagine Ukraine getting a better exchange in different circumstances. Russia has a great deal of its remaining capabilities concentrated to take Bakhmut. Ukraine knows what is there and where it is. Bakhmut falls... this could, and probably will, change. That likely won't be a good thing headed into the summer campaign season. Put in Combat Mission Victory Condition terms... Ukraine has both military and political reasons for holding Bakhmut. Russia similarly has both military and political considerations at stake here, but Putin is ignoring the military and focusing only on the political. He is, in no small way, doing a "tank rush" to secure a "flag" at the last phase of the game. When this battle ends I think Putin will be sad to see that his military losses provide him no real victory even if he manages to get Bakhmut. We've all seen this in CM where you (or someone else) thinks they secured the most important Victory Condition only to find out that something you failed to do was more important. If the enemy checked off their boxes then you've lost, no matter how happy you are to have secured whatever you thought was so damned important and it wasn't. At least when this happens to us it really is a game so we can shrug it off. I don't see Russia being able to shrug this off. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCommenter Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Article just came out in The Washington Post detailing a 5000 page trove of top secret documents coming out of Russia's cyberwarfare structure. Specifically a private company, Vulcan, that contracts with GRU and SVR. The documents detail a ToDo list of things that could be attacked, catalog of known vulnerabilities, and evidence of past attacks and disinformation campaigns. Steve Just to mention that this story is also detailed in depth on the Guardian which is not paywalled like the Washington Post is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: The problem with Rice is that she threw her lot in with the worst sort of neocons out there. Which means pretty much everybody on the Democrat side doesn't trust or value her opinions and on the Republican side a huge chunk think even worse of the neocons than the Dems do. This leaves very few people (center right leaning) that think anything that she has to say is worth listening to. I happen to agree with you that she is smart and knowledgeable. I think her opinions should be listened to, far more than Kissenger for sure. The primary reason is that the neocons were not always wrong about how the world works. They were mostly wrong about how they went about, well, just about everything they did Steve This. Rice's biggest handicap is that nobody in DC is particularly impressed with her judgement and it goes back to 2000-2001. When the Bush administration came in, the Clinton folks and the DC policy wonks were telling them incessantly to worry about AQ and terrorism. Rice and her coterie had been out of power for 8 years and still had essentially a Cold War mindset. So they came in talking about missile proliferation and little else while expressing open disdain for the advice they were getting. Then when it blew up in our faces they pretended that none of that happened. So sure, she's not the immortal, immoral husk that Kissinger is but she'd need a buck to get a cup of coffee from actual policy people in DC. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Quote https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2023/02/23/data-from-satellites-reveal-the-vast-extent-of-fighting-in-ukraine They use synthetic aperture radar to evaluate urban damage. Very interesting. also, some interesting use of FIRMS Quote On the Ukrainian side, the numbers imply that the arrival last June of himars, an American rocket system, was a turning point. The share of military fires in Russian-held areas rose from 26% in the two previous months to 50% in the two subsequent ones. Many other factors also contributed to Russian losses, but Ukraine has clearly used the rockets extensively. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) Good to see the newest NATO member state helping out. Edited March 30, 2023 by Harmon Rabb 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 More longer and detailed video of eliminating Russian armored advance near Vodiane, Avdiivka area about week ago. Unit of 36th Marines brigade just shot out Russians with Javelins 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 36 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said: Good to see the newest NATO member state helping out. We sold these 12 helicopters to Macedonia in 2001. Now they will turn back. Alas, part of them have to be reparied or will be donors. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftukfgufyrdy Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 On 3/28/2023 at 6:24 PM, Peregrine said: Opposite but similar from Australian engineers. One of my brothers friends said he lost count of how many times he "died" practicing disarming buildings rigged in various way. He said it was a little dispiriting. Sounds more interesting than what my friends did while serving their 2 year mandatory service in Taiwan. One of my friends was assigned to a WW2 era minesweeper and he said that they were almost always tied up to the dock and if they left the harbor he was always afraid the ship would sink. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 And about weather. Northern cyclone brough snow to most part of Ukrane and below zero temperature at the night. And if in central Unkraine snow already almost gone, that on Donbas situation is next: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftukfgufyrdy Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 58 minutes ago, billbindc said: This. Rice's biggest handicap is that nobody in DC is particularly impressed with her judgement and it goes back to 2000-2001. When the Bush administration came in, the Clinton folks and the DC policy wonks were telling them incessantly to worry about AQ and terrorism. Rice and her coterie had been out of power for 8 years and still had essentially a Cold War mindset. So they came in talking about missile proliferation and little else while expressing open disdain for the advice they were getting. Then when it blew up in our faces they pretended that none of that happened. So sure, she's not the immortal, immoral husk that Kissinger is but she'd need a buck to get a cup of coffee from actual policy people in DC. I thought you guys were talking about Rice the CM:Afghanistan enjoy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) This Humvee crew was lucky! Their vehicle has ran over TM-62 mine in milimeters from the fuse. The driver disembarked all and turned around - the way further is too dangerous. Edited March 30, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Did s/o post this already? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Did s/o post this already? Heh. No, nobody posted this yet. The amount of equipment Russia lost to drones while they (maybe) were getting ready to retrieve them is non insignificant. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 53 minutes ago, Haiduk said: More longer and detailed video of eliminating Russian armored advance near Vodiane, Avdiivka area about week ago. Unit of 36th Marines brigade just shot out Russians with Javelins This really showcases the Javelin's lethality. Whether this was one team with multiple reloads or multiple teams, the results are devastating. Interesting that the last tank hit managed to shrug it off for a little while. The tank to its left was not so lucky. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkin Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) Putin strikes back after the Russian spy was arrested in Brazil: https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-journal-reported-russia-arrested-cd511a94a3fe0ce604df6648ef5adec5 Gershkovich is the first American reporter to be arrested on espionage charges in Russia since September 1986, when Nicholas Daniloff, a Moscow correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, was arrested by the KGB. Daniloff was released without charge 20 days later in a swap for an employee of the Soviet Union’s United Nations mission who was arrested by the FBI, also on spying charges. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11920799/Russian-spy-posed-Brazilian-student-Johns-Hopkins-gain-intel-Americans-DOJ-says.html https://www.axios.com/2023/03/26/doj-russian-national-invasion-of-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/26/us-indicts-alleged-russian-spy-sergey-cherkasov-who-tried-to-infiltrate-icc-in-the-hague A wrinkle is this: China and Brazil just signed a currency deal. Edited March 30, 2023 by kevinkin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: . If Xi becomes convinced that the West is willing to engage in a Russian level trade war with China over Taiwan, I don't see an invasion happening no matter what the military calculation is. Steve, as always these are armor-plated observations. I was pleased you included Xi’s likely perception that China is much more powerful and perhaps more self aware than Russia. You’ve put your thumb right on the key question: the perception of the West’s willingness to engage in an unprecedented trade war with China. I think Xi is attempting to calculate the proverbial Goldilocks’ porridge temperature. When is “The Time” not too cold…not too hot…but just right. If this question could be about a separate world where the Ukraine War didn’t exist, or had ended with a resounding Russia military defeat, economic implosion, and overthrow of leadership, I’d feel much more confident about Xi’s risk calculations. But… In the current world, we don’t see unambiguous clear signs that the war will soon be over. Apart from hopes for a successful major Ukrainian offensive, the timeline is hugely unclear for how and when the dust will finally settle. In this world, how do we gauge the willingness of Europe and the USA, Canada to launch *another* simultaneous massive trade war, and with the largest or second largest economic power on the planet? And with weapon stocks significantly depleted? Budgets and production already straining? The realistic military window for a Chinese invasion is limited according to several analyses. Xi’s calculations must take into account his best military timing opportunity within the world’s economic picture, and that arguably is within five years or so. Not ten or 15. Will the Western economies be robust again? Much turns on the perceptions and mood of the citizens in the Western democracies, let alone of their respective elected political leadership. We can only guess. But China is yet another important reason for the West to ensure Ukraine has wha it needs now to inflict a severe, unrecoverable military defeat on Russia. We all hope Xi’s porridge is never “just right”. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This really showcases the Javelin's lethality. Whether this was one team with multiple reloads or multiple teams, the results are devastating. Interesting that the last tank hit managed to shrug it off for a little while. The tank to its left was not so lucky. Steve And the Javelin is last-gen tech. This is just one reasons of many that we need to rethink combined arms and the concept of mass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: Did s/o post this already? Good lord, the damn things will be knocking on the hatch soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 It’s happening! BRUSSELS — Turkey’s parliament has voted to approve Finland’s NATO membership bid, paving the way for the Nordic country to join the security alliance. The decision only applies to Finland, not Sweden, its neighbor and fellow membership hopeful. Both countries applied on the same day last year, having made the decision to join the alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine. Thursday’s vote was the last hurdle in Finland’s quest to join the military organization. Its eventual accession would remake European security, doubling NATO’s land border with Russia and bringing the full force of the alliance to Europe’s far north. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/30/turkey-finland-nato-vote/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Is Visegrad but not much here to exaggerate 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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