How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

  

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

There are not many places that can accommodate large numbers of troops with some provision for food, sleep, and hygiene, so it is not surprising that they end up in public buildings such as schools. 

If I were a hypocrite, I would post a YouTube video of a certain Monty Python skit that involves bushes and explosives

Seems to be related to the weather and the need to keep poorly motivated, barely equipped soldiers warm.  Far easier to put them together in one place, run a generator with some heaters, and be OK.  Until the obvious target is struck by something big.

I wonder if Ukraine is having the same sort of problems on their end.  If they are, Russia certainly doesn't seem able to capitalize upon it.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

P.S. Clever. 

Indeed!  Though I would like to see the same thing of how much money goes from DC to the HQs of the biggest defense contractors each year.  Think of how many hours that might take to fully animate

Steve

[chrisl]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

Indeed!  Though I would like to see the same thing of how much money goes from DC to the HQs of the biggest defense contractors each year.  Think of how many hours that might take to fully animate

Steve

Those red dots for military aid to Ukraine all are going to have corresponding dots to defense contractors to replace everything being shipped to Ukraine.  And since most of it was paid for years ago, there will be 5-10 times as many to buy modern replacements at current prices.  And that’s just to replace stuff sent to Ukraine.  

[LongLeftFlank]

Hey, I hope you're right for once Zoker....

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Those red dots for military aid to Ukraine all are going to have corresponding dots to defense contractors to replace everything being shipped to Ukraine.  And since most of it was paid for years ago, there will be 5-10 times as many to buy modern replacements at current prices.  And that’s just to replace stuff sent to Ukraine.  

Yeah, thanks for pointing that out!  That is something that is continually, and deliberately, overlooked by the critics of this sort of spending.  Although I am against the principle of spending taxpayer money on defense needs simply to create economic activity, I am certainly in favor of capturing as much of the economic benefit of defense spending when it occurs.

Steve

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, I hope you're right for once Zoker....

 

 

All you need to know about Zoka is that he is an Assad fan. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

A very helpful chart:

This is a good one. 

Greece, Hungary, Turkey, Swiss, Austria will not give any. Also Finland has max give of only a couple (I disagree with that decision)

That leaves significant amounts only GER, POL, Spain and Sweden. And Germany is very unclear will they give any of their own.

Best case seems to be 1-3 main donators with others swapping older hardware and money for them and helping with the "life time support".

[The_MonkeyKing]

Britain also stepping up with the AS90:

And rumor from Mirror tabloid of AH-64 Apache. I guess these would be nice Hellfire platforms to be used with care.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1614402422167699456?s=20&t=UOU7lHao19P73WpMDGw19Q

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, I hope you're right for once Zoker....

 

 

Yick.  I don't see the point in posting pro-Russian propaganda like this.  However, there was an upside when I clicked on his main feed.  He highlighted what appears to be still lingering problems within the International Brigade (I presume).

The guy is legit.  Here's a story about him when he went to Kurdistan, on his own, to help the Peshmerga fight ISIS:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2015/06/09/iowa-soldier-iraq-guard-isis-ryan-oleary/28767975/

Steve

[JonS]

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

Nuremberg wasn't exactly suspenseful, but there seems to be strong opinion it was important.

Sure, although several of the primary defendants were acquitted, and half did not receive a death sentence. For the military tribunals 250 were found not guilty, and the vast majority of the rest were not executed.

Yes; it was important.

No: it wasn't a kangaroo court.

These two observations are not independent of each other. As I've said before - if you want to be the good guy, you have to do the good things. Kangaroo courts are not good things. By promoting them, Shady_Side is actively trying to undermine Ukraine's war effort.

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Plus Harry was a ground pounder, not RAF

Apaches are owned by the Army, not the Air Force. Harry did a rotation to Afghanistan as an Apache backseater, after he'd done a rotation as a recce troop commander. Serious props to the guy.

IIRC, Apache training is like 2 years. They are complex machines.

Edit: for the Brits it is something like six months just to learn how to fly it, another six to know how to fight in it, and a final six to be passed combat ready. That assumes you're starting as a fully qualified, army helicopter pilot. Apaches aren't likely to make much play in this war.

Edited January 15, 2023 by JonS

[cesmonkey]

New twitter post from the U.S. House Republican's Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman:

 

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Britain also stepping up with the AS90:

And rumor from Mirror tabloid of AH-64 Apache. I guess these would be nice Hellfire platforms to be used with care.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1614402422167699456?s=20&t=UOU7lHao19P73WpMDGw19Q

Good for the Brits. They are stepping up to the plate. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

39 minutes ago, JonS said:

Apaches are owned by the Army, not the Air Force. Harry did a rotation to Afghanistan as an Apache backseater, after he'd done a rotation as a recce troop commander. Serious props to the guy.

IIRC, Apache training is like 2 years. They are complex machines.

Edit: for the Brits it is something like six months just to learn how to fly it, another six to know how to fight in it, and a final six to be passed combat ready. That assumes you're starting as a fully qualified, army helicopter pilot. Apaches aren't likely to make much play in this war.

False to compare western training times to what it would take for Ukraine. Example Patriot is going to take 6months it seems.

To convert Hind pilot to Apache is not going to take years, but a couple of months.

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Good for the Brits. They are stepping up to the plate. 

Indeed: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war

A statement from 10 Downing Street  says: “UK defence and security officials believe a window has opened up where Russia is on the backfoot due to resupply issues and plummeting morale. The Prime Minister is therefore encouraging allies to deploy their planned support for 2023 as soon as possible to have maximum impact.”

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is something that is continually, and deliberately, overlooked by the critics of this sort of spending. 

The broken-windows theory of economic development has exactly nothing going for it.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yick.  I don't see the point in posting pro-Russian propaganda like this.  However, there was an upside when I clicked on his main feed.  He highlighted what appears to be still lingering problems within the International Brigade (I presume).

The guy is legit.  Here's a story about him when he went to Kurdistan, on his own, to help the Peshmerga fight ISIS:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2015/06/09/iowa-soldier-iraq-guard-isis-ryan-oleary/28767975/

Steve

Yes, I mentioned that although he's a well known Russia booster, his feed occasionally has interesting stuff that gets RTed by the good guys....

But heck, what's so propagandistic about the General taking a selfie with a supermodel? (it's not like our Mutha Beautiful Thread is being inundated with this stuff, and the tank pr)n tweets get kinda dull after a bit.  Man doth not live on tank pr)n alone....)

[JonS]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

To convert Hind pilot to Apache is not going to take years, but a couple of months.

Because ... reasons? Solid argument, that.

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

Because ... reasons? Solid argument, that.

Timelines talked about for hypothetical Western planes are in this ballpark. The longer time is the support infrastructure, this is smaller with helicopters.

What is your evidence it taking anywhere near as long for UKR to train than it does in western peacetime professional army?

[JonS]

37 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

this is smaller with helicopters.

Because ... reasons?

Quote

What is your evidence it taking anywhere near as long for UKR to train than it does in western peacetime professional army?

Western pilots will have done their initial qualification and training within a western training context, on western platforms. The leap from that to Apache is Huge, but not HUGE.

Ukrainian pilots will have done their initial qualification and training within a modified Soviet training context, on Soviet platforms. The leap from that to Apache is HUGE.

I don't doubt the skill, dedication, or professionalism of Ukraine's aviators. But the same is true of everyone's aviators. The Brits don't take 18 months to train Apache crews because they're starting with a bunch numbnuts.

Will the conversion of Ukrainian pilots take the same full 18 months, or rather will it be allowed to take that full 18 months? No, probably not. But it certainly won't be "a couple of months", unless you are a huge fan of Apache shaped holes in the ground appearing all over eastern Ukraine?

Lets work a timeline: In Jan 2023 the Brits are starting to talk about handing some airframes over. Those frames might be delivered in April, so the pilots could potentially start training that same month. Assume - an heroic assumption - they can cut the type and conversion training in half, to just 9 months. Cut the desert training, cut the hot and high training, bin maritime, forget about some of the more esoteric weapons that an Apache could carry, and skimp on navigation and systems training. That means that individual crews could possibly be ready to go by the start of 2024, but they haven't yet begun squadron or multi-ship training. You could drop that whole phase, I suppose, given that they already know how to operate as a Hind squadron. Except, if they're going to operate Apaches as if they were Hinds ... why not keep the Apaches and just give them more Hinds? Instead let's assume they actually want to get some added value from that new platform. Being heroic again they only get 6 months for unit training. Yay! 1st Ukraine Apache Attack Sqn is ready to rock in June 2024.

That's the rest of this winter, next spring, summer, autumn, another winter, spring again, then finally in the summer after next and they are Good To Go!

Meantime, the ground forces have won the war, had their medals parades, and retired to the local veterans bar to tell each other lies over a well earned bevy.

Edited January 15, 2023 by JonS

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

False to compare western training times to what it would take for Ukraine

Sorry, I don't get that. If you don't suggest that Ukrainians are more intelligent or quicker learners than western pilots, you can only accelerate the training by cutting corners. "Now you know the basics, the manual is under the front seat." You can probably argue that a half decent pilot is better than none but that is different than saying training generally takes less long for Ukraine than for others. (Same applies to the tank discussion, btw)

Edited January 15, 2023 by Butschi

[The_MonkeyKing]

12 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, I don't get that. If you don't suggest that Ukrainians are more intelligent or quicker learners than western pilots, you only can only accelerate the training by cutting corners. "Now you know the basics, the manual is under the front seat." You can probably argue that a half decent pilot is better than none but that is different than saying training generally takes less long for Ukraine than for others. (Same applies to the tank discussion, btw)

UKR Is not taking civilians and converting them to professionals in these cases.

They are taking battle experienced soldiers and converting them to operate western kit.

For tank training I give you example of Finnish military where creating a Leo2 commander takes 9 months (+ first 3months is basic training, total 12 months). Equipment course takes 3 months. This is also converting civilians to military. How long this takes for US military? Years.

So for UKR T-72 crew conversation is going to take couple of months.

 

Similar "laws" apply for air force and helicopters 

Edited January 15, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[JonS]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

UKR Is not taking civilians and converting them to professionals in these cases.

Neither. Are. The. British.

Their 18 month conversion course is for people who are already qualified as army helicopter pilots. To take Prince Harry as an example (simply because his career is unusually public):

May 2005: Joins Army

April 2006: completed officer training

Jan 2008: Deploys to Afghanistan in a ground role as a FAC (which in itself is no dummies course)

October 2008: transfers to Army Air Corps

May 2010: awarded wings

Sept 2010: Commences Apache Conversion training. At this point Harry has been in the army for over five years, has deployed, and completed several very demanding courses. He is no military dummy, and no civilian. Note also that he only spent about 4 months with a  squadron before commencing Apache training - I suspect this was one of the times that being the Queens grandchild greased his wheels. Most pilots would have to have spent a lot longer with a squadron before applying for conversion.

Feb 2012: Completes conversion course, posted to an operational squadron.

Sep 2012: Deploys to Afghanistan as an Apache backseater. Over seven years after joining Army, over 4 years after commencing pilot training.

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by JonS

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

A very helpful chart:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-waffenliferungen-rheinmetall-kann-leopard-kampfpanzer-erst-2024-liefern-a-34b749d8-62b9-44e3-a75b-fcad61361e2b

Rheinmetall has just announced that refurbishment will take until 2024. They have 22 Leopard 2s.

I doubt the Bundeswehr will want (or can afford...) to give away a significant number of theirs. I guess the rest is with KMW?

[Seedorf81]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, I hope you're right for once Zoker....

 

 

I'm confused.. Is this still part of the "beavers"-topic?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, JonS said:

Neither. Are. The. British.

Their 18 month conversion course is for people who are already qualified as army helicopter pilots.

Didn't realize this. Changes things.

Sounds like unbelievable long time.