How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Khalerick said:

 

I've been quite polite considering some of the rhetoric I'm reading. Why is this directed toward me? All I did was ask a very simple question of how does Ukraine militarily win this war.

My belief is there is no such conclusion. 

Well thank you so much for tolerating us.

In fact, you ask 'simple' questions but don't really seem to give a rats about listening to answers or accepting feedback.  Every response is just to give yourself a springboard to post yet another wall of text, making very bold but highly debatable assertions.

...Plus, at last count, you've managed to ad hom about a dozen of us here already.

So let me ad hom you right back, you're coming across right now as a superbly intelligent, well read 18 year old. One of many who have graced this fine Forum over the years. (I have a 16 year old at home here).

...And while I think it's fine you are stirring the pot and challenging us, I predict a rage quit soon when we crusty groupthinkers fail to bow down before your high energy debating style.

TL:DR you are really going to need to give and take a little here, or this will get tiresome.

But of course, as Steve properly reminds me, it's his living room, he sets the rules for decorum. My views are my own alone.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Shady_Side said:

Give Putin and his enablers the quick and fair trial that he deserves followed by the quick hanging or toss from a very high window.

so, what is the point of the trial in this sequence? You've predetermined the verdict, and the sentence, so why bother with the trial.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, Khalerick said:

 

dupe

Edited January 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Khalerick said:

My personal hope is that Ukraine comes out of this as a member of NATO.

I think that's the hope of basically everyone living west of the Dnepr, so welcome to the club!

But I doubt it will happen till Ukraine and Russia can negotiate a peace between themselves, one that actually sticks and with none of that occasional shelling across the border nonsense. The current members of NATO are very unlikely to accept a prospect that is currently engaged in a hot, or even lukewarm, war. Even then it'll be years, maybe a decade+, before Ukraine gets their membership certificate and special decoder ring. For example, the Baltic States didn't get in till something like 14 years after they all held hands and sang a few songs. And that was with only a few grumpy words from Moscow in the interim, not active hostilities.

Edited January 14, 2023 by JonS

[Kinophile]

51 minutes ago, JonS said:

I love CM as much as the next person here, but you DO realise there are ... issues with CM's morale model, right? And that this is one of them?

If  They don't hit immediately they're still alive,  armed and mobile. Morale is recoverable on living soldiers, not so much on the strawberry jam guys inside BMPs.... 

 

[JonS]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

they're still alive,  armed and mobile. Morale is recoverable on living soldiers, not so much on the strawberry jam guys inside BMPs.... 

That's truthy, but timescales matter. They might get back into the fight, but its going to be hours at best, but more likely days.

[Kinophile]

Interesting.  I wasn't aware the actionability of Bradley survivors was a potential issue. Are the RL accounts? 

But applicable to this war, if UKR has an IFV that consistently sVes the lives if its occupants,  abd Russo does not,  then that is a still long term force sustainment win for UKR,, yes? 

[Haiduk]

Kyiv, Kyiv oblast and Chernihiv oblast were under strike of some unrecognized missiles, launched on a ballistic trajectories from northern direction - either Belarus, or Briansk oblast of Russia. 

I heard four explosions, reportedly one infrastructure object was hit. One missile struck Kopyliv village and slighly damaged 16 houses.

One missile, which impacted in Kyiv, hit the territory of rural architecture skansen "Pyrohiv" in southern part of the city. Fragments of missile enough similar to S-300 family, but it's not confirmed yet. If this turns out a true, this will be first case of S-300 usage on Kyiv. Only missiles 5V55U (150 km), 48N6E (150 km) and 48N6E2 (200 km) , 9M83ME (200 km) can reach Kyiv, being launchded from S-300PM/PMU2/VM systems

 

Reportedly Russian Tu-95 have simulated a launching of missiles several minutes ago. Awaiting. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

16 hours ago, Huba said:

On the topic of killing Russians:

 

 

15 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Yesterday there was an estimate of already 4000 casualties on Russian side at just the recent Soledar battle.

Can't remember CNN or Dutch news or somefink, but seems very plausible.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Degsy]

It's just been officcially confirmed that Britain will be sending "about a dozen" Challenger 2's to Ukraine.       BBC News

"The UK's prime minister has confirmed the UK will provide Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine in a call with President Zelensky

Rishi Sunak says the tanks will help Ukraine's forces "push Russian troops back"

President Zelensky has thanked the UK for making decisions that "will not only strengthen us on the battlefield, but also send the right signal to other partners"

[Haiduk]

LostArmor forum about new-formed Russian motor-rifle regiment - very interesting about combat capabilities, training and supply level:

Translation:

Imaginations about mobilized. I personally have met today with these people.

1. NNN motor-rifle regiment completely consists of moibilized.

2. Officers also all moibilized. There are no cadre officers at all.

3. They have food a fat lot. They even are supplied with a beer.

4. The regiment has 100 % of personnel

5. They at the very least supplied with personal protective combat clothings. Many "Syrian" body armor in poisonous desert coloration.

6. With clothes and footwear they are supplied too, but they don't get fat with this

7. Main part of personnel are armed with different AK versions of 7.62 caliber

8. Each company got per two thermal sights. Happy owners of thermals have AK-74 in 5.45 caliber, how can you guess.

9. But there are no barckets for mounting thermals on the weapon. You can just watch through them and this is all. 

10. The unit, which was substituted by this regiment, set mines all fu...g around, but didn't leave minefield maps for own changers. Though plates "mines!" stick out anywhere. After one liuteneant-idiot lost own foot , all other understood that there are really mines and don't go there anymore.

11. But there are also good news - on these minefields have blown up at least two groups of "khinzirs" /Arabic word "pigs", usual name of Ukrainians on LostArmor, likely have origins from soldiers or merceneries,  who served in Syria/

12. They have "quadrics" (civil drones), but few. 

13. Company commanders are in first line with soldiers.

14. Other chiefs, starting from battalion commanders - in the rear. And than bigger bosses, they the further. Regimental HQ in 4 km from frontline.

15. Very big problems with building materials and tools. Already almost have been overcame by different ways.

16. There was a lack of shooting practice on the range.

17. AGS team commander became a man, who shot with them three times. 

18. Many weapon weren't zeroed, when they arrived to frontline, but now it's already has fixed.

19. SVD rifles they got in two times more than by "shtat"

20. Group and heavy infantry weapon is a lot, but almost no properly trained crews for it.

21. The artillery is working in interests of regiment and working good.

22. They havn't seen aviation - neother own, nor enemy   

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

LAUNCHES! 

AD has engaged first missiles on South. Except Tu-95 also five Kalibr-carrier ships in the Black Sea

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Huba]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

 

Urals oil is currently being priced about thirty dollars per barrel below Brent Crude. That is actually a devastatingly effective sanctions program in the medium to long term. Brent at ~$85 per barrel is well within historical norms. And Russian oil is expensive to extract. At $55 per barrel Russia is not making a lot of money. Certainly not relative to the vast expenses of the war.

Reportedly India and other major buyers are getting at a discount still, paying around 40$ per barrel, which is on the verge of profitability. And come February, there comes price limits on refined oil products which will double Russia's losses vs income projected in it's budget. There's this one PL economist who writes about it constantly, and in length, I might translate some of him later as it's very interesting. But now let me just post the summary of Russias 2023 budget woes:

A moderate predictions shows that RU income gap might reach 8% of the GDP.  Translated into mean numbers, from expected state budget of 30 trillion Rubles, they are missing 12 trillion, or 40%. Nuff said in my opinion, they are going down. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

I assume the caption is an accurate description of what transpired (interesting also that it was released), but more interesting is that Putin shows no visible signs of (a) dying of some wasting illness (b)  mental illness. But fine, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. FWIW.

[Zeleban]

Illustrative video about the structure of the Ukrainian mech infantry

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I'm unsure we can afford to think on short term sustainment only. I think the chances of Russia being knocked out in the short term are dimming, both from a sustainment politically and militarily.

I don’t either, that is why I am a big proponent of investing and energizing the Ukrainian Arms industry.  A very good idea mentioned are “joint ventures” in Poland and border nations.  This would put Ukraine on the same strategic footing as Russia - it military industrial base untouchable by Russia without significant escalation risk.  The Ukrainian arms industry was pretty hefty pre-war (12th largest arms exporter in the world): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Ukraine. The industry has no doubt taken some very big hits between actual damage and people leaving the country, but this is nothing money, partnerships and new locations cannot fix.

This strategy set up Ukraine to sustain its defence for years and provides employment supporting reconstruction of it economy,  If we want to do long term strategic planning and have a few billion lying around it would be far better to invest it there than throwing a few hundred western platforms at them.  The western kit is a short term solution and not even the best one.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Andrey Gribalev, 37th motor-rifle brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was kileld on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast in missile strike on HQ of brigade.

 

 

Major, Rinat Gareyev, artillery of 37th motor-rifle brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was kileld on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast in missile strike on HQ of brigade.

Major, Aleksandr Tarasov, deputy chief of staff of comms, 26th NBC-protection regiment, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was kileld on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast in missile strike on HQ of 37th motor-rifle brigade. 

Major Mikhail Shkroba, probably communication troops, 37th motor-rifle brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was kileld on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast in missile strike.

 

Major (retired) Aleksey Korshak, former aviation engineer of Pacific Fleet. Retired in 2020, but in 2022 enlisted to aviation squadron of PMC Wagner by own speciallity. Was killed on 4th December.

Major (old photo in rank of captain) Aleksandr Sysoyev, MLRS unit, was killed not later of 5th of Jan 2023

 

Lt.colonel Aleksey Bachurin, deputy commander of 1444th motor-rifle regiment, was killed in HIMARS strike on Makiivka, Donetsk oblast of 1st of Jan. I have written recently, but here is 100 % confirmation 

 

Lt.colonel Boris Mikheyev, group comamnder of SOF Center "Senezh" of SOF Command. Was killed on 4th August.

Major Yuriy Lanin, Rosgvardiya. Data of death unknown

Lt.colonel Aleksey Afonin, deputy commander of 234th air-assault regiment of 76th air-assault division, was killed on 1st of Sep

 

[_Morpheus_]

russia attack the Dnipro city..........

PS: I hope Scholz will get way more pressure on Leopard decision

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

LostArmor forum about new-formed motor-rifle regiment - very interesting about combat capabilities, training and supply level:

Translation:

Imaginations about mobilized. I personally have met today with these people.

1. NNN motor-rifle regiment completely consists of moibilized.

2. Officers also all moibilized. There are no cadre officers at all.

3. They have food a fat lot. They even are supplied with a beer.

4. The regiment has 100 % of personnel

5. They at the very least supplied with personal protective combat clothings. Many "Syrian" body armor in poisonous desert coloration.

6. With clothes and footwear they are supplied too, but they don't get fat with this

7. Main part of personnel are armed with different AK versions of 7.62 caliber

8. Each company got per two thermal sights. Happy owners of thermals have AK-74 in 5.45 caliber, how can you guess.

9. But there are no barckets for mounting thermals on the weapon. You can just watch through them and this is all. 

10. The unit, which was substituted by this regiment, set mines all fu...g around, but didn't leave minefield maps for own changers. Though plates "mines!" stick out anywhere. After one liuteneant-idiot lost own foot , all other understood that there are really mines and don't go there anymore.

11. But there are also good news - on these minefields have blown up at least two groups of "khinzirs" /Arabic word "pigs", usual name of Ukrainians on LostArmor, likely have origins from soldiers or merceneries,  who served in Syria/

12. They have "quadrics" (civil drones), but few. 

13. Company commanders are in first line with soldiers.

14. Other chiefs, starting from battalion commanders - in the rear. And than bigger bosses, they the further. Regimental HQ in 4 km from frontline.

15. Very big problems with building materials and tools. Already almost have been overcame by different ways.

16. There was a lack of shooting practice on the range.

17. AGS team commander became a man, who shot with them three times. 

18. Many weapon weren't zeroed, when they arrived to frontline, but now it's already has fixed.

19. SVD rifles they got in two times more than by "shtat"

20. Group and heavy infantry weapon is a lot, but almost no properly trained crews for it.

21. The artillery is working in interests of regiment and working good.

22. They havn't seen aviation - neother own, nor enemy   

There is definitely some good news - bad news in this report:

- core logistics seem ok (food note) but weapons seem less optimized.  Here I do find it odd that we have not flooded the UA in NATO 5.56.  A rifle can be trained in a few days and it is not like there is a shortage.  Opening up a new logistics line for bullets is a pain but this does not need special trucks or equipment.  Going to also assume medical is working or it would have been mentioned.

- looks like the AP mine question is settled, not really surprising.

- UAS, they should have a lot more than “a few”.  Something else we could be flooding the UA with especially commercial versions.

- training shortfalls are disconcerting.  Especially on the heavy weapons.

- Excellent integration between officers and troops.

 

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, Huba said:

Why would you assume that Russian are willing to die in nuclear Armageddon more than me or you? IMO these boundary conditions are the same for everyone. We crossed every "red line" imaginable up to this point, and they didn't even move a finger towards nuclear escalation. Not one bit, except Solovyov's TV madness. Unless they at least set foot on the first step of the nuclear escalation ladder, say make a straightforward threat, back away from test ban treaty or something along these lines I don't see why should the West worry about it more than it does at the moment. Being paralyzed by the bomb merely existing does't make sense.

We have discussed this over and over and I guess I won't add anything new but I have to say, again, that this sounds illogic to me:

1. The fact that we (obviously) haven't crossed the threshold yet doesn't prove there is none.

2. We can actually be fairly certain there is a threshold, although a trivial one. Nuclear escalation by NATO. That is an upper limit to where that threshold is.

3. So it follows that the threshold is somewhere in the interval between where we are now and this upper limit.

4. It is possible that Putin would send some kind of message before the West reaches that threshold but only if he thinks he can make us back down. If he, for whatever reason exists in his mind, comes to the conclusion that nuclear war is inevitable, it would be illogical to give us advance warning.

That said, what we actually make of this is an entirely different matter. Of course we can't just go "Oh, you have nukes, here, take Ukraine. Want another country? Sure!"

But finding out how far we can actually go  is the tricky part and that's the obvious reason why the West is boiling the frog soooo slowly.

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, Huba said:

So says Vladimir Vladimirovich:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63893316

To be fair, he has also said the exact opposite...

[Haiduk]

Some about enemy losses assesments - the photo of April preterm graduation of Donetsk High Officer Command School, DPR 1st Corps, issued by DPR milblogger. There was also other term graduation in July.

On the photo we can see 50 officers. In green circles 19 of those who were wounded (and some of them several times), red circles 10 of them, who were killed. 

PS. Since 2023, both 1st Army Corps of DPR and 2nd Army Corps of LPR are officially included in structure of Russian Army. 1st Corps was awarded by "Guard" name. 

Recently there were many reports that part of Russian prisoners go not only to PMC Wagner, but also directed to LDPR units. Since LDPR Corpses are now Russian army, its can be officially reinforced by Russian mobilized. Mobilized resource of Donbas is almost exhausted. 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There is definitely some good news - bad news in this report:

- core logistics seem ok (food note) but weapons seem less optimized.  Here I do find it odd that we have not flooded the UA in NATO 5.56.  A rifle can be trained in a few days and it is not like there is a shortage.  Opening up a new logistics line for bullets is a pain but this does not need special trucks or equipment.  Going to also assume medical is working or it would have been mentioned.

Maybe I wrong, but sounds like you read this like describing of situation in UKR regiment, but this about Russians ) 

One soldier, fighting in Bakhmut trench mud told he prefers old good AK, than AR, because:

1. AR will not survive endless shooting and he hasn't time to clean it all time, when AK can shoot much longer between cleanings. 

2. AK is more suitable for maintenance and fast disassembling and more resistive to mud 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Tell that to Putin, because he is absolutely the one that refuses to negotiate. 

And that is really all there is to say about negotiations. Germany is often accused that we'd just sell Ukraine for peace, cheap gas and profitable business. We have at least one pseudo intellectual or populist politician popping up each month who says we should convince Ukraine that it is in their best interest to negotiate with Putin (because of the Ukrainian children who don't have a voice in this or something). But it is really only those because the rest has realized that those guys always fail to give an answer to how that should work because last time anyone looked you still needed at least two to negotiate.

If there was a realistic option I'm certain Ukraine would be under way more pressure not the least coming from Germany. But even Macron, who initially prided himself in regularly talking to Putin on the phone seems to have given up on that idea.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Illustrative video about the structure of the Ukrainian mech infantry

I doubt about 9-men squads and SVDs in them. This similar to one variant of pre-war structure. By the way between 2014 and 2022 we had several platoon stricture variants and some of them existed parallel. Last pre-war structure were three 7-men squads + 4 men in Plt HQ. Of course, war-time "shtat" could be extended, but will be more logically to have additionan riflemen or even two with AK, than with SVD, which denand more training and we havn't theese rifles anymore. They are already since 2020 gradually substituting for more modern rifles

Edited January 14, 2023 by Haiduk