How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

US officials are confirming it was a Russian missile. They specified two actually.

Let's wait, but it seems increasingly probable. Meeting is very long already.

Here a thread from AA expert, worth to autotranslate. Main thought: it was bound to happen sooner or later. It is not attack but accident, still if people are killed it is getting serious.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

The Daily Express is reporting this story.

At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border

Edit: The Associated Press is also reporting this story.

Strikes put Ukraine in darkness; missiles cross into Poland

Edited November 15, 2022 by Harmon Rabb
Added AP link.

[Beleg85]

Village is 10 kms from border, not directly on it. That is why Ukrainian AA rocket debris seem rather unlikely. I would vote for missile IF  news will confirm (and remember, it could be internal accident of wheat collector as initially thought, still).

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, Sojourner said:

About one page back Haiduk reported detonations and large fire at Novooleksiivka.
Wonder how they reached that, or was it more careless smoking?

Tochka-U can reach Novooleksiivka outskirts from Berislav area. But it's a question either we ran out own missiiles or not. Or we already had a time to deliver them from Bulgaria, which recently agreed weapon supply to Ukraine. Bulgaria had stored Tochka-U.

[Beleg85]

F....ng witch.

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Twitter is its usual deranged self and calling for Article 5 which is of course disproportional. But the bar for supplying ATACMS just dropped, I think.

 

[akd]

Looks like missile fragments are from S-300:

 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Another big wave of missiles over Kiyv, Kharkiv + other regional centers.

@Zeleban , @Haiduk and other Ukrainians, take care of yourselves, folks. These strikes were precisely predicted before, but Russians are visibly pissed off after Bali meatings. They may be loosing geopolitical ground.

 

Today's strike ecxeed the levcel of Oct 10th with its 84 missiles. 

90 cruise missiles (mostly Kh-101/Kh-555 and about dozen Kalibrs from Black Sea) and 10 Shakheds launched in three waves. Missiles flew from different directions, i.e through Belarus.

73 missiles and 10 Shakheds shot down

15 power infrastructure objects hit mostly in western regions.

Around Kyiv 18 missiles shot down from 21, which attacked Kyiv, Kyiv oblast or just passed further to other regions. From them at least 4 missiles shot down over Kyiv.

Fragments of two shot down missiles have fallen on two residential buildings, causing death of woman, 3 citizens were traumatized.

Air forces also claimed shot down of UCAV "Orion"

Edited November 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Of course, as expected "Polish mercenaries" in RUS propaganda already breached the barrier bewteen cartoon in TV and crossed into reality like this girl from  "The Ring".

Keep calm folks, if confirmed UA will have new candies in near future.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

OMFG.  what will Poland do?  If no dead or wounded Poland could mostly ignore it, but RU just murdered two Polish citizens.  Oh my oh my.  And what can Poland (reasonably) do?  

Erdogan, or maybe Xi since China isn't NATO, could do a Lawrence of Arabia.

Edited November 15, 2022 by chrisl
typo

[Probus]

26 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Twitter is its usual deranged self and calling for Article 5 which is of course disproportional. But the bar for supplying ATACMS just dropped, I think.

 

Depends on if NATO WANTS a reason to take off the gloves. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

32 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like missile fragments are from S-300:

 

But the crates seem way too big.

and on the other hand S300 in ground attack mode would make for a perfect for this sort of "grey op" for Russians. They could claim it is a misfired UKR air defense missile.

EDIT: Too far for S300 from Belarus

Edited November 15, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

Depends on if NATO WANTS a reason to take off the gloves. 

I think NATO behavior up until now clearly shows they don't. NATO could have ended this before it started if they wanted to. NATO could have ended this on day one, if they wanted to. NATO could have supplied enough to Ukraine for them to end it months ago, if they wanted to. NATO could have ended it the they after Bucha. NATO could have ended it they day after terrorist attacks became the official Russian doctrine.

They didn't.

I'd love to be optimistic, but I don't see a reason to be.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

But the crates seem way too big.

and on the other hand S300 in ground attack mode would make for a perfect for this sort of "grey op" for Russians. They could claim it is a misfired UKR air defense missile.

About 140 km to Belarusian border. If this really was S-300 (there are some identifications as Kh-555), it couldn't come from Belarus.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

About 140 km to Belarusian border. If this really was S-300 (there are some identifications as Kh-555), it couldn't come from Belarus.

Good point on the range. Forgot how short range those are when it comes to ground attack

[akd]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

About 140 km to Belarusian border. If this really was S-300 (there are some identifications as Kh-555), it couldn't came from Belarus.

There are reports of two missiles. Could it be S-300 intercept / attempted intercept of Kh-555 near border?

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, akd said:

There are reports of two missiles. Could it be S-300 intercept / attempted intercept of Kh-555 near border?

Some locals sources reportedly told about even 3.

Reporters are probably speeding up so we will know more. It's my województwo, it shoul'd take them 2h by car from Lublin probably.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_MonkeyKing]

Well, Russia denies it before they could even possible have verified it

[Probus]

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think NATO behavior up until now clearly shows they don't. NATO could have ended this before it started if they wanted to. NATO could have ended this on day one, if they wanted to. NATO could have supplied enough to Ukraine for them to end it months ago, if they wanted to. NATO could have ended it the they after Bucha. NATO could have ended it they day after terrorist attacks became the official Russian doctrine.

They didn't.

I'd love to be optimistic, but I don't see a reason to be.

Dang @Letter from Prague!!  That is pessimistic. 
 

If Poland did get hit by Rusaian missiles, is that enough to trigger an Article 5 or would Russia have to target something in Poland. If they were just wayward missiles Russia will prolly just "apologize" (without apologizing i'm sure). 

[Sojourner]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Well, Russia denies it before they could even possible have verified it

But they don't deny striking any non-targets.

[Probus]

3 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

But they don't deny striking any non-targets.

Ha! Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it!!!

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

There are reports of two missiles. Could it be S-300 intercept / attempted intercept of Kh-555 near border?

I can't see anything interesting for Russian cruise missiles on UKR territory in Przewodow area. Maybe Chervonohrad with coal mines and likely some power equipment in 25 km from Przewodow. Though if Russian missile targeted Chervonohrad area it should be intercepted over the town or hit some object, but it flew further and probably (!) being chased by UKR S-300 missile. But further... where and for what? Very starnge...  

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

But they don't deny striking any non-targets.

Anything coming from Russian offciials is a crap by definition. My preliminary thesis from very early reports ()bound to change): it could be that Russian missile went astray and followed by Ukrainian one. Locals told one source about 2-3 detonations.

Mind anybody with apocalyptic tendencies, that Turks shot down Russian jet with no repercussions. Different circumstances, I know, but panick many people are spreading over Twitter is really getting out of controll.

Probably AA batteries will be moved closer to the border, and supply for Ukraine increased.

[Beleg85]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I can't see anything interesting for Russian cruise missiles on UKR territory in Przewodow area. Maybe Chervonohrad with coal mines and likely some power equipment in 25 km from Przewodow. Though if Russian missile targeted Chervonohrad area it should be intercepted over the town or hit some object, but it flew further and probably (!) being chased by UKR S-300 missile. But further... where and for what? Very starnge...  

My take exactly, all of it is strange. Unless Russians deliberatelly escalated.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

My take exactly, all of it is strange. Unless Russians deliberatelly escalated.

Is the third photo with tail part of Kh-555 from impact site or just for comparison?