How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

No diversion of a satellite necessary.  
 

Commercial coverage gets you revisits of any point on Earth multiple times a day - all you have to request is pointing and data acq.  The people who have gov satellites are also buying that coverage and already are watching where everything is.  Ex-PFC Wintergreen can’t redirect a satellite, but his company commander is getting fed information without being told where it came from.  There’s a *lot* of stuff up there, and a lot of bandwidth to get data down.  If that 60 mm mortar hasn’t moved in an hour it very well might get made by a satellite.

It doesn't work that way.  Very often you need to have continuous, real time ISR to find what you're looking for.  Snapshots, even if done regularly and effectively made available to the guys in the trenches, aren't able to deliver that sort of functionality.

I'm not saying that satellites aren't valuable assets, because they absolutely are, I'm just saying they aren't a substitute for small drones.  After all, satellites and larger drones have been around for a very long time and yet small drones just came about.  They didn't become important because they performed a redundant job.  They came about because they performed a job that wasn't previously getting done.

Now, I'll grant you that as time goes on the technology and processes necessary to have satellites play a bigger role at the tactical level will happen.  However, I expect the first step on that long path will be to ensure low level commanders have up-to-date big picture information about the sectors they are responsible for.  This will help Lt. Nobodyspecial see how things like obstacles, trenches, bridges, building damage, etc. are right before launching some sort of operation.  As far as I know, this isn't happening now down to the lowest levels.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW put out a special report detailing partisan activities including a list of all confirmed partisan attacks:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/interactive-map-and-assessment-verified-ukrainian-partisan-attacks-against-russian

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's regular report:

Quote

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov implied that Chechnya will continue to send summonses to serve within Chechen units to men with previous combat experience.[74] Kadyrov highlighted that these men will not serve in the army, but will instead serve “among Chechens,” presumably in internal security forces in the Chechen Republic.  Kadyrov may have again indirectly criticized the Russian Armed Forces by stating that the families of Chechen servicemen will know the locations and units of their loved ones’ deployments, which is not the case for soldiers in the Russian military. Russian outlets have reported that families complained that the Russian MoD did not properly inform them about the deployment of their relatives.[75]

It's been a while since we've mentioned Kadyrov's care in keeping his Chechens under his personal command.  Reasons are probably the same as we've already discussed, which is Kadyrov is keeping his options open by retaining a militarized force large enough to make any challenge to him a really bad idea.

Steve

[dan/california]

And yes, thats me. A 40mm with a nice computer controlled indirect fire set up, and couple of Spike missiles would make an excellent infantry support vehicle. There aren't to many places where there is nowhere to hide within 1500 meters of an objective. Those are the places the Abrams was invented for. It wouldn't take much more than a nice bit of systems integration to have the grenade launcher slave directly to the cursor on the drone feed. Trenches would become much less popular. And something the size of a Bradley could hold a LOT of forty mike mike if wasn't carrying any infantry.

 

A breach loading 60mm mortar would be even better, but that involves all the risk of a real development project. The super tech version would be a magnetically  launched 60mm mortar, but that is even more development risk. But that would more or less match the range of the Spike missile.

[Calamine Waffles]

There is a good thread by Constantine about armoured HMMWVs in Ukrainian service and operating alongside tanks. According to Constantine they are used because they are cheap and abundant; IFVs would be preferable, but there are not enough of them and too expensive.
 

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

40mm with a nice computer controlled indirect fire set up, and couple of Spike missiles would make an excellent infantry support vehicle. There aren't ...

Is this more, or less, "critical" than a bde set^ of Abrams and Bradleys?

 

^ which would have negligible impact due to all the reasons endlessly discussed in this thread.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It doesn't work that way.  Very often you need to have continuous, real time ISR to find what you're looking for.  Snapshots, even if done regularly and effectively made available to the guys in the trenches, aren't able to deliver that sort of functionality.

I'm not saying that satellites aren't valuable assets, because they absolutely are, I'm just saying they aren't a substitute for small drones.  After all, satellites and larger drones have been around for a very long time and yet small drones just came about.  They didn't become important because they performed a redundant job.  They came about because they performed a job that wasn't previously getting done.

Now, I'll grant you that as time goes on the technology and processes necessary to have satellites play a bigger role at the tactical level will happen.  However, I expect the first step on that long path will be to ensure low level commanders have up-to-date big picture information about the sectors they are responsible for.  This will help Lt. Nobodyspecial see how things like obstacles, trenches, bridges, building damage, etc. are right before launching some sort of operation.  As far as I know, this isn't happening now down to the lowest levels.

Steve

I think we're more or less in agreement.  Sat intel absolutely isn't a substitute for small drones, but when the weather is bad, neither side is going to be flying small drones (and maybe not even big ones), and hi-res through the clouds once an hour over a battlefield is going to give the side that has it an advantage over the side that doesn't.  Yes, satellite has been around for a long time, but in the last decade the capability and coverage has gone *way* up and the cost has gone *way* down.  You can look at what the NRO was giving away to other agencies a decade or more ago because it wasn't useful to them anymore and start to guess where things have gone since then.  

[womble]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you're Buck Private trying to figure out where the 60mm mortar that's been shelling you for the last hour is,

That sounds like another application for a battlefield mesh "shot spotter" acoustic detection system, to me. If there's a mic in every squad in an AO, and they know where they are, what time it is, and can talk to each other or a base station quickly enough, they should be able to DF anything that more than a couple can hear, given a bit of processing power and some locality peculiarity learning time. Shouldn't take an hour (if the 60mm isn't displacing after every 6-bomb salvo...)

[chrisl]

12 minutes ago, womble said:

That sounds like another application for a battlefield mesh "shot spotter" acoustic detection system, to me. If there's a mic in every squad in an AO, and they know where they are, what time it is, and can talk to each other or a base station quickly enough, they should be able to DF anything that more than a couple can hear, given a bit of processing power and some locality peculiarity learning time. Shouldn't take an hour (if the 60mm isn't displacing after every 6-bomb salvo...)

At squad level dispersions it might be tricky, but at platoon level a bunch of cell phones that are meshed (no outside network required) could probably do it - a vaguely modern smartphone has more than enough computing capability in it, and many have enough DSP that they should could do waveform comparison on the fly to make sure the computation is using the same signal from all of them.

[Zeleban]

New post by Mashovets.

The command of the enemy troops in the Ugledar - Novomikhailovka region, as it seems to him, came up with another "brilliant plan"...

2 days ago, enemy troops launched intensive attacks on Pavlovka (south of Ugledar), trying to break into the city from the south, and simultaneously from the Slavne-Sladkoe line attacked forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine south of Novomikhailovka ...

The enemy operates with forces of up to approximately 4-5 BTGr's, consolidated and distributed along the directions in 2 tactical groups - Ugledarskaya and Novomikhailovskaya. They consist of the forces of the 29th CAA (1 BTGr from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade), the 68th Army Corps (up to 1 "consolidated" BTGr from the 18th Machine Gun - Artillery Division (a unit from the fortifications of the Kuril Islands) and the 39th MRBr) and several company or battalion-level units from the 1st Army Corps of the DPR (3rd and 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 11th MRR, 2 "rifle battalions of the people's militia", part of the artillery brigade "Kalmius" + unidentified Special Forces "MVD DNR"). All this "bombas herd" is also reduced to tactical groups in areas.

It is obvious that the enemy seeks, through two strikes, which converge approximately east of Vodyana, to eliminate the Ugledarsko-Maryinsky ledge of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which objectively is a fairly convenient "starting area" for the offensive of Ukrainian troops, either on Volnovakha or Dokuchaevsk.

 

Judging by what they write in their summaries and reports, it seems to them that for the Ukrainian command this whole "beautifully conceived and organized operation" was supposedly unexpected ... Also, they are all almost 100% sure of its "ultimate success" ...

I would not want to disappoint anyone, however, pay the attention of all these authors of "military fiction" a la "we will defeat everyone" to one nuance that has already become obvious ... Namely, the 3rd day of this "unexpected" offensive has already ended Russian troops, but they could only, having advanced 1 km, cling to the southeastern part of the village of Pavlovka ... and even then, apparently, they are close to the fact that they will be knocked out of there in the near future ... In other areas of this " "smashing" blow ... the situation in general, in essence, has not changed ... Attempts to "break through" - ended in vain ...

In this regard, a completely natural and logical question arises - if the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not expect these attacks and were "relaxed", why are the Russian troops advancing so hard and slowly ...?

In some Russian reports, their commanders, the slow rate of advance of their subordinate troops and their average daily offensive performance, rapidly approaching zero ... justify unfavorable weather and climatic conditions (heavy rain, dampness, fog) ... and also (you believe it) "urban area" ...

Interestingly, at the same time, Russian commanders do not particularly focus the attention of their superiors on what prevents them from transferring the main hostilities from the settlement Pavlovka to a more open area (to the right or left of it), as well as the fact that the Ukrainian troops have to operate in exactly the same weather and climatic conditions as the Russian ones ..

That is, the story of the "defense along Oskol" and "reaching the line of the Zherebets River" is repeated ... and even more clearly - the "counteroffensive at the Pecheneg reservoir." That is, a series of attacks supposedly coordinated in place and time, with a very specific goal, but gradually turning into a series of unsystematic suicidal attacks, which over time lose both their power and, in general, their general meaning, including tactical ...

 

[Zeleban]

All this happens because the Russian command continues to demonstrate formalism and formulaic methods of planning and organizing combat operations of its subordinate troops.

In this case, it clearly planned and organized this offensive without taking into account a number of objective factors, factors that significantly affect the course and results of this "brilliant tactical idea" of theirs ... That is, it approached this issue exclusively formally, guided mainly by the guidelines and instructions for headquarters planning. Of course, I won’t “decipher” them in detail ... but I will point out some ...

- factor number 1 - time, specific features of the area, weather, etc.

- factor number 2 - the enemy (i.e., the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operating in this direction), the assessment and conclusions that were the basis of the "plan" clearly do not correspond to reality ...

- factor number 3 - assessment of one's own abilities ... no comments here

- factor number 4 - the choice of a specific place, areas and directions for the use of one's own forces ... both main and auxiliary ... there are obvious and obvious errors ... both in content and quantitative order

Thus, it becomes clear that in all 4 factors, when planning and implementing a specific plan, the enemy command made significant mistakes, or they were not taken into account at all ...

Otherwise, the average daily rate of advancing forward units of the enemy would have been different, and Pavlovka and Novomikhailovka would have already been, as they write in their reports, "cleared out" ... In the meantime, neither the first nor the second has happened "...

Of course, it is quite likely that the enemy’s stubborn attacks on the Ugledar direction (including the road between Pavlovka and Bolshaya Novoselka), as well as on Novomikhailovka and to the south of it, will continue ... But it is already clear that to “cut off” the ledge of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that threatens Volnovakha and Dokuchaevsk , at least - the enemy will not be able to reach the line Ugledar - Konstantinovka in the near future ...

Therefore, yes, attacks are quite possible, and even probable, but I very much doubt that they will lead the enemy to some kind of "meaningfully adequate" result ... at least in the coming weeks.

[Zeleban]

Ukraine continues production of its own drones

[Huba]

The PL flag next to UA one might give you come clues as to where the factory is located  Apparently the UA equivalent of Shahed drones is about to enter service before the year ends, hopefully we'll be able to produce them both in sufficient numbers, and make them a tad better than the Iranian mopeds.

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

And the grain deal is back! There's  A LOT of things for which Erdogan can be criticized, but his approach to dealing with Putin is perhaps the most effective from all the NATO leaders.

 

[acrashb]

Speaking of drones: 

"

 Canada's Sea-Doo powered the Ukrainian marine drone used against Russian fleet: analyst

The Sea-Doo brand of jet ski may be at the heart of Ukraine’s latest weapon against Russian invaders, a marine drone that could play a growing role in naval warfare 

"

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/canada-sea-doo-ukraine-marine-drone-russia

 

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is spot on and it is, in fact, the way Russia has fought since it adopted a mass mobilized military system.  Maybe even before then, but that's not my area of expertise.

Something that's been going through my head a lot, but especially lately, is how the average Russian male is OK with this horrific arrangement that puts them in the service of a government that has absolutely no concern whether they live or die.  They will stick to the system even when they are rounded up by force, have to purchase their personal gear out of their own money, then get sent to Ukraine to fight without training, equipment, ammo, or even orders!  To them it is normal and accepted.  Even the ones that surrender to Ukrainian forces did so only after they passed up all opportunities to resist being treated as a piece of garbage.

Nothing new, of course, but still something I have difficulty truly grasping.  Intellectually I get it, but man... I really just don't get it.

I don't want to generalize too much about anthropology of military structures (as it is very complex and was discussed earlier), but on the surface it is remarkably similar to description of Muscovite soldiers all across the board into past. Germans in WWII, Poles in 1920, French in 1812- despite operating on various stereotypes and cultural backgrounds of writers, all descibed basically very similar phenomena. Passivity in face of easily avoidable danger and allowance to being treated like trash by superiors (interrupted by short eruptions of vengance and rudeness) being some of them.

2 hours ago, Huba said:

And the grain deal is back! There's  A LOT of things for which Erdogan can be criticized, but his approach to dealing with Putin is perhaps the most effective from all the NATO leaders.

I would wait till we know what was in fact promised, it doesn't sound realistic Putin get away from the table without some bone like a beaten dog. A lot of Erdogan's posture as "impatient strongman" to Russia is planned PR-stunt, and he dwells heavily upon this image to win elections. He can play very cynical games that are not necessary to the benefit of Ukraine in long run. Generally there are too many characterological (and structural) similarities between him and Putin, with just different geopolitical situation of two countries, to trust him. Similar characters think alike...

2 hours ago, Huba said:

The PL flag next to UA one might give you come clues as to where the factory is located  Apparently the UA equivalent of Shahed drones is about to enter service before the year ends, hopefully we'll be able to produce them both in sufficient numbers, and make them a tad better than the Iranian mopeds.

I would love to see them dropping on Russian military airfields deep in the country and Kremlin crying about "acts of international terrorism" again.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I would wait till we know what was in fact promised, it doesn't sound realistic Putin get away from the table without some bone like a beaten dog. A lot of Erdogan's posture as "impatient strongman" to Russia is planned PR-stunt, and he dwells heavily upon this image to win elections. He can play very cynical games that are not necessary to the benefit of Ukraine in long run. Generally there are too many characterological (and structural) similarities between him and Putin, with just different geopolitical situation of two countries, to trust him. Similar characters think alike...

To me it makes sense for Putin to return to the grain deal because his action didn't do anything positive for Russia.  The world was probably supposed to be intimidated/scared of carrying on without Russia's approval.  Instead, the entire world said "s'OK, we'll carry on without you.  You are but a wee little man with a puny military, we will crush you if you try and stop us.  In fact, things will go a lot faster now that you're out of the arrangement."  Getting back into the arrangement reverses both the PR irritation as well as the increased efficiency of the operations with Russia's absence.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chief-wagner-group-private-military-125700250.html

Pot meet kettle.  The irony...

[Huba]

53 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I would love to see them dropping on Russian military airfields deep in the country and Kremlin crying about "acts of international terrorism" again.

That seems to be the idea here. And as a side note, in my opinion this is something that PL could invest in too - the low end to the high/lo mix of stand-off munitions, a cheap way to put pressure on the opponent if the need arises. A tad fancier type with terminal TV/ IIR (and AR!) guidance might be even better, assuming costs could be kept under control. Version with  munition dispenser would be interesting as well.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

That seems to be the idea here. And as a side note, in my opinion this is something that PL could invest in too - the low end to the high/lo mix of stand-off munitions, a cheap way to put pressure on the opponent if the need arises. A tad fancier way with terminal TV/ IIR guidance might be even better, assuming costs could be kept under control. Version with  munition dispenser would be interesting too.

Yup, loitering munition and long range kamikaze drones are maybe not the most effective tactically, but can definitelly bring war where Russians would not expect it and thus undermine Putin's image of success.

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To me it makes sense for Putin to return to the grain deal because his action didn't do anything positive for Russia.  The world was probably supposed to be intimidated/scared of carrying on without Russia's approval.  Instead, the entire world said "s'OK, we'll carry on without you.  You are but a wee little man with a puny military, we will crush you if you try and stop us.  In fact, things will go a lot faster now that you're out of the arrangement."  Getting back into the arrangement reverses both the PR irritation as well as the increased efficiency of the operations with Russia's absence.

Steve

Yes, but he still could try wide maritime sabotage within "little Green men" narrative. I highly doubt Turks or NATO would be determined to cross the swords in the Black Sea even with Russian BSFleet; too much risk of escalation. That's why logical conclusion is that Putin was given something in return we don't know yet (note talk with Erdo lasted for two hours), probably solely on Erdogan's initiative.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Beleg85

[ncc1701e]

Valery Gerasimov is still completely missing. Do you think he was arrested?

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, womble said:

That sounds like another application for a battlefield mesh "shot spotter" acoustic detection system, to me. If there's a mic in every squad in an AO, and they know where they are, what time it is, and can talk to each other or a base station quickly enough, they should be able to DF anything that more than a couple can hear, given a bit of processing power and some locality peculiarity learning time. Shouldn't take an hour (if the 60mm isn't displacing after every 6-bomb salvo...)

Sound is a slippery eel to work with. Wind,  weather conditions and terrain topology play enormously into reception (CW buffs will know it as acoustic shadowing),not to mention the power output if the sound source itself. A shahed powering upwind through 30km wind towards a listener is not going to be heard as quickly, esoif the receiver is moving as well.

Sailors will know the difficulties of shouted commands v.  Wind, even on a relatively  "flat"  topology like the sea. On set,  wind is my own biggest problem with communication. 

Essentially,  it's doable, but there are probably more reliable and multi-use approaches.  

My bet would be on movable network of mast-mounted (static or erectile), balloon lofted or building-fixed long range thermal cameras. These would provide a very useful (to many depts.) long term visual of the area,  without the need for constant processing to catch a specific sound.  You'd mount mics to the cams,  sure. But it's visual is the solve for me. 

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Is this more, or less, "critical" than a bde set^ of Abrams and Bradleys?

 

^ which would have negligible impact due to all the reasons endlessly discussed in this thread.

It would be a fun thing to put in the next game. It is an odd little idea that has been floating around my head for ten or fifteen years since i basically cheated my way through a Shock Force scenario because I figured the that particular batch of pixel insurgents didn't have anything that could reach my AAV if I parked it carefully. So i just systematically slaughtered them. It is the kind of nifty little insight the game gives you occasionally. I still think it is worth a defense contractor somewhere taking a flyer on. 

The prepositioned gear for two heavy brigades is setting in Europe doing nothing. and I think we ought to give half of it to the Ukrainians. That is unless you think the Russians have another whole army sitting around somewhere the Finns, and the Poles can't thrash in three days.  The Biden administration is, at least to some extent drip feeding the the Ukrainians because they are hoping that the Russians will get a clue and go home while they have enough of an army left to hold Russia together, and they are also hoping to avoid a direct staring contest with the Russians over their urge to use nukes in Ukraine to pull their worthless murdering A$$s out a disastrous losing war. I happen to think there is no way the Biden administration is going to get what it wants on either of those questions. Not unless it wants to just let the Russians keep all or most of the ground they now hold.

The problem right from late March is that the we have been too scared of what winning means. Status quo antebellum is not a thing anymore. The badly run mafia that is the Russian state is going to come out of this stronger, or shattered. It literally doesn't have the mental bandwidth to do anything else, or it would have tried to pull the plug on this fiasco March 15th. It didn't, it doesn't, and here we are. 

As to the impact question about thirty HIMARS and three hundred 155 tubes changed the course of this war. I happen to think a decent dose of western armor in Ukrainian hands would just end it. Am I right? Well there is one way to find out...

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

My bet would be on movable network of mast-mounted (static or erectile), balloon lofted or building-fixed long range thermal cameras. These would provide a very useful (to many depts.) long term visual of the area,  without the need for constant processing to catch a specific sound.  You'd mount mics to the cams,  sure. But it's visual is the solve for me. 

The new Polish SHORAD system Narew that we just started introducing, apart from having two mast-mounted (at 20m high masts!) EASA surveillance and fire control radars per battery, envisions that each launcher will be equipped with (also mast-mounted) thermal camera. It should not only allow the individual launcher to conduct the whole engagement by itself ( with all the limitations of of course.), but would also feed the target data into the network. The second mast on the picture is an antennae set - both for communicating with the AD network, and guiding the missiles.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Huba