How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

I think you last left it in the Former Yugoslavia if that's any help finding it ... 

Nope, that was 2 BGs and a Service Bn.  Afghanistan was a BG, a PRT and a bunch of enablers.  Last time was 4 CMBG in Lahr.  We could probably bolt one together out of what is left, sustaining it should be fun.  So glad I am not in the CA right now, they must be going nuts.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

We have new but so far not very big scandal among nationalists regarding new exchange of 95 Azov Steel defenders. 

It is the same as with Tyra scandal. But I will quote the most interesting part of Girkin rant.

We are watching the growing split between nationalists and RU government. We are heading toward a military/nationalist coup.

 

The very big question is does this coup result in a clean takeover and massively increased war effort in Ukraine? Or the immediate abandonment of the Ukrainian effort as they desperately try to consolidate power in Russia. The 1917 revolution took a decade to play all the way out really. And the then nebulous Soviet government spent most of that not even answering its mail with regard to the rest of the world.

[Haiduk]

Lack of infantry... Like in 1941 Russia is establishing combined battalions from sailors - crewmen of naval ships and vessels. Combined motor-rifle battalion of Northern fleet will depart to Ukraine from Murmansk. Probably as a part of 200th motor-rifle brigade. In its composition sailors, servicemen of coastal units, military police, reservists. This is not first case, reportedly 83rd air-assault brigade already sent similar replenishment (servicemen of brigade rear units+reservists) for one of own BTGs, moved to teh rear.  

 

Alexandr Boroday, former "prime-minister of DPR" and in present time the head of "Donbas Volunteers Union" claimed during "special military operation" DVU already lost killed more than 1000 members. DVU members, mostly citizens of Russia, fight either in DPR/LPR units (mostly regular) or in volunteer battalions, which DVU forms in Russia. Some of DVU members also fight in PMC.

  

Edited June 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Jammason said:

^This. And once Ukraine and allies reject the offer, RU is going to dig in like a tick. Consider: Ukraine will not be accepted as a member of NATO (and probably not EU), while there are active Russian military strikes against it. To keep Ukraine out of NATO, then, all Russia has to do is be in a perpetual state of military aggression against it. Expect Russia to gear up for an exceptionally long war. Screwing with Ukraine is about to become a national pastime (if not official policy). The will of Ukraine and the West to endure economic and physical pain and suffering is going to be tested. You are right to think Russia will be tested too, but their infrastructure is only subject to sanctions (and we're seeing, while they have bite, there are holes and workarounds --India, China, "dual use", etc-- that dull the teeth considerably), not cruise missiles.

Ukraine has been capable of making things blow up quite far inside Russia for a while now. It started with Belgorod, now Rostov and Kursk. And while they currently have other things to do, long-term Ukraine might be better at manufacturing and delivering cruise missiles than sanctioned and brain-drained Russia.

This is another interesting escalation angle. In the beginning a lot of people were saying that Ukraine is disadvantaged because it can't strike back into Russia, but now it became new normal - including not just purely military targets like ammo dumps and airfields but also industry. And nobody bats an eye anymore.

I can perfectly well imagine that if Russia retreats behind borders but keeps up its terror attacks, the world will collectively shrug whenever Russian factory or power plant or oil rig explodes.

[Haiduk]

Video of Kh-22 hit at the mall in Kremenchuk

Todays morning Russian missile hit 5-storey residential building in Mykolaiv. 4 dead (including 6-year girl) and 5 wounded. 

 

[Haiduk]

Battery of Russian 2S3 SP-howitzers being destroyed by artillery of 81st airmobile brigade

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[acrashb]

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think Biden made a phone call to Erdogan. Nothing more.

Certainly Turkey got something from it beyond a pat on the head and/or removal of some vague threat by the current US President.

In the immortal words of Rod Blagojevich, shortly before he was impeached and went to jail, NATO membership is "a f*ing valuable thing; you just don't give it away for nothing".  I'm sure Erdoğan has the same view.

[Beleg85]

Still hard to say how valid this account is (some of its content is pretty childish...) but if this guy is correct, then Ukrainians are largely withdrawn from Lysychansk. Expected move, and let's hope they will manage to consolidate a new line of defence.

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Still hard to say how valid this account is (some of its content is pretty childish...) but if this guy is correct, then Ukrainians are largely withdrawn from Lysychansk. Expected move, and let's hope they will manage to consolidate a new line of defence.

 

Either he is believed in Girkin post or this is very tough UKR OpSec. Because today this has written UKR serviceman, probably of 3rd SOF regiment: 

Translation: well, in principle, the battle for Lysychansk has started. 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Either he is believed in Girkin post or this is very tough UKR OpSec. Because today this has written UKR serviceman, probably of 3rd SOF regiment: 

Translation: well, in principle, the battle for Lysychansk has started. 

If he serves in SF, maybe he is this rear guard? It also seems to me that Ukrainians will try to do at least some battle over the city before retreat. To spill some Russian blood extra.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

"Putin wants....."  that's a funny couple of words.  He can't get what he wants and is actually getting mountains of what he doesn't want.  All that matters is that 'the west' recognizes that Putin will never stop trying to get what he wants, and therefore it's in all our interest to make sure he loses, badly, in Ukraine.  He has, of course, been a great asset to the cause of RU losing badly.  

Quotes in this article are half a sentence long at best and give the impression of being chosen to support the thesis. I'm really disenchanted with Reuters lately 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If he serves in SF, maybe he is this rear guard? It also seems to me that Ukrainians will try to do at least some battle over the city before retreat. To spill some Russian blood extra.

In nearest days we will see all. But main battle will be anyway for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. This is symbolyc towns for Russia and DPR, because from theese towns "hot war" started on Donbas in 2014.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The very big question is does this coup result in a clean takeover and massively increased war effort in Ukraine? Or the immediate abandonment of the Ukrainian effort as they desperately try to consolidate power in Russia. The 1917 revolution took a decade to play all the way out really. And the then nebulous Soviet government spent most of that not even answering its mail with regard to the rest of the world.

Military will unlikely kill Putin cleanly. They are military not assassins. And Putin is not dumb. Very difficult target. So, they will aim toward isolation of Putin in his bunker for a time being. On other hand Military/Nationalist have some control only over border regions next to Ukraine. Their control over Moscow and non border regions is weak.

But Moscow is home turf of liberals and remnants of Party clan. They will mobilize as soon as coup starts. 

We will have Military/nationalist in border areas fighting in UKR, raiding Moscow and blocking Putin bunker region. Liberals and Party clan defending Moscow. And Putin and KGB clan holding around Putin bunker and sending assessing squads against Military commanders and disloyal liberals.

It is too much for Military/Nationalist. They are going to fail. 

 

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well we have to find one first....

Ouch.

But it underlines two realities:

- gross and long-term underfunding by the government. 

- gross misfunction of the armed forces' procurement processes. https://nationalpost.com/opinion/matt-gurney-on-military-sidearms ; Analysis: Will billions of dollars in new military funding be wasted? | Ottawa Citizen

So it's great that the current government made an announcement, I'll believe it when I see it.  The Canadian Armed Forces are in the odd position of being simultaneously respected and un-valued by Canadian society. https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/weve-given-up-on-canadas-military-so-lets-abandon-it-altogether/ ; Opinion: ‘Defence’ doesn’t fit the job of Canada’s military any more. Let’s create a Department of National Safety instead - The Globe and Mail

 

[Haiduk]

Despite Lithuania rejected to agrre with EU document, which would be allow Russian transit to Kaliningrad, EU officials continue to seek opportunity to bypass sanctions for Russian transit in this question. Now they claimed the compromiss document will be ready to 10th of July, writes Reuters:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-kaliningrad-row-eu-nears-compromise-deal-defuse-standoff-with-russia-2022-06-29/

Vladimir Dzhabarov, Russian senator, foreign affairs commitee of Federation Council (senat) head first deputy made a statement today that "Russia will not stop before nothing to protect own territories if blockade will take place. And this can lead to armed conflict". 

So, scared EU bureaucrats will make pressure on Lithuania to sign document with exclusions for Russian transit. 

[dan/california]

Maybe Lithuania can leverage this to get Ukraine two three hundred more pieces of 155 artillery.

 

[Letter from Prague]

Treachery from within EU that will give Russia huge international PR boost and great internal political victory is exactly what we needed.

[Huba]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Despite Lithuania rejected to agrre with EU document, which would be allow Russian transit to Kaliningrad, EU officials continue to seek opportunity to bypass sanctions for Russian transit in this question. Now they claimed the compromiss document will be ready to 10th of July, writes Reuters:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-kaliningrad-row-eu-nears-compromise-deal-defuse-standoff-with-russia-2022-06-29/

Vladimir Dzhabarov, Russian senator, foreign affairs commitee of Federation Council (senat) head first deputy made a statement today that "Russia will not stop before nothing to protect own territories if blockade will take place. And this can lead to armed conflict". 

So, scared EU bureaucrats will make pressure on Lithuania to sign document with exclusions for Russian transit. 

So far the official EU stance was that Lithuania is executing UE sanctions. This article quotes some random person, without even pointing his/ her affiliation. AFAIK there wasn't as much as a single word about any talks of making exemptions for Kaliningrad from official sources. EU and US declared support for Lithuania. 

TBH this article is another one  from Reuters that perfectly fits into infensified RU propaganda campaign that you were warning us of a few days ago. I call BS on it.

Edit: what's also noticable is huge RU bot activity in the comments sections everywhere this article is quoted. Go figure... 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Huba

[Harmon Rabb]

Should we expect anything different from the person who still does not want to call the largest invasion in European history since World War II a war?

Edited June 29, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

I am sorry if I sounded impolite. I am still trying to adjust myself to be a better man.

  

On one hand RU is totally unprepared for mobilization. LDNR mobilization showed that the current RU leadership is too incompetent to make proper mobilization. On the other hand, it is politically dangerous as mobilization means a lot of RU people are going to die. So, a lot of people might decide that it is better to do a regime change. That's what happen in 1917. It is a nightmare scenario for a RU ruler.

 

RU sources says that without mobilization RU have manpower until July-August. Also RU government announced that gas maintenance will last until end of July. So, we can be pretty sure Kremlin does expect things might become very bad at the end of July.

You weren't impolite at all, I appreciate you taking the time to translate material and share information with us. 

Hopefully this scenario is the outcome, and Ukraine can achieve some victories. 

[Beleg85]

31 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH this article is another one  from Reuters that perfectly fits into infensified RU propaganda campaign that you were warning us of a few days ago. I call BS on it.

Edit: what's also noticable is huge RU bot activity in the comments sections everywhere this article is quoted. Go figure... 

Yep, Reuters is quite tricky source for many news regarding this war. They were already for some time being accused of not entirely keeping up to journalistic standards. I am curious what are their business connections...

Edited June 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

TBH this article is another one  from Reuters that perfectly fits into infensified RU propaganda campaign that you were warning us of a few days ago. I call BS on it.

Edit: what's also noticable is huge RU bot activity in the comments sections everywhere this article is quoted. Go figure... 

This can be too. but I also posted words of Lithuianian Eurocommittee representatives, that transit question showed no unity among EU officials. USA and UK, of course support position of Lithuania, but they not EU members. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This can be too. but I also posted words of Lithuianian Eurocommittee representatives, that transit question showed no unity among EU officials. USA and UK, of course support position of Lithuania, but they not EU members. 

I guess we'll see soon, hopefully EU won't budge, that would be the worst we could do. Hell, if it comes fo that, Poland should veto the compromise, Russian threats really do not impress us anymore. 

[Letter from Prague]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I guess we'll see soon, hopefully EU won't budge, that would be the worst we could do. Hell, if it comes fo that, Poland should veto the compromise, Russian threats really do not impress us anymore. 

Now that's a good use for that veto.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Huba]

A  very interesting thread about present RU conscription cycle:

Oh, and if somebody missed that, Lithuania is not the only country embargoeing Russian exclave. Norway blocked Russians completely from transfering supplies to RU mining colony on Svalbard through Norwegian ports:

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Huba