How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

Just now, kraze said:

During WW2 even that supposedly mighty russian empire (USSR) had to rely almost entirely on USA and its lend-lease to not get steamrolled into oblivion by Germany, people seem to forget that.

Indeed. The Russians have lived in denial of this ever since WW2 (and a lot of westerners believe their propaganda - even though there are detailed studies of just how dependent the Soviets were on the west to do as well as they did) ... they probably wouldn't have lost, the fact is that Nazi recial policies were such that surrender wasn't really a choice, but without Lend Lease it's likely the Western Allies would have had to drop the first Atomic weapons on Germany and that the 'Iron Curtain' would have been far to the east of where it ended up ... possibly even onm the old pre-1939 Russian Border.

[Calamine Waffles]

20 minutes ago, Undaunted said:

Regarding China, don't overestimate the factor of economic concerns in China's policy and behavior.  In the past few years it has been making a sharp turn to the left and steadily moving towards totalitarianism.  I think the ultimate goal of the CCP is not money, or well being of the people, or even nationalism.  It is the eternal survival of the CCP and its eternal grip on the control over China.  Economy is one important factor, but "national security" has been the keyword of the day for the past few years.

Yes, but the entire reason the Chinese people accept the various authoritarian things the CCP does for the past 30 years is because the CCP claims to be doing all of this in order to bring prosperity and a higher standard of living for the Chinese people. This has been how they have operated since Deng.

Now, can that eventually change to one where it's more like North Korea, i.e. brainwash the population into ultranationalism and paranoia against the West under Xi? Maybe. But for now at least that is not completely the case, and probably won't be for another generation or so.

[Calamine Waffles]

EDIT: accidental double post

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[panzermartin]

Did they lend lease and the 25 million people that had to die to reach Berlin. Geez...So if Ukraine wins this war it will be a NATO victory above all, because of the M777 and the Caesars right....How many of you prefer a rare and pricey sherman in CMRT when you can have a nimble T-34/85  Lend Lease came at the right moment when things were on a turning point but it didnt win the war for the soviets.

The West also underplayed USSR and exaggerated its contribution to the war, through popular culture, through politics, through the Cold War lens...Thats why I guess was watching a doc named "Unknown War"  from 1978. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0483223/The eastern front was an unknown unpopular subject in the West up until the 80s. Crazy if you realize that it was the main chapter of the War. Anyway, Cold war distorted things for both sides and the Soviets also lived in their myth that they were the ones that beat Hitler alone but lets not talk nonsense. 

[paxromana]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Did they lend lease and the 25 million people that had to die to reach Berlin.

Pretty much, yes. It is well understood that Russian incompetence was burning up men at a great rate of knots and that the provision of all those western manufactured goods through Lend Lease allowed the Soviets to comb men out of factories and off farms to be fed into the meat grinder ... lots of men. Even so, Soviet incompetence traded lives for ground and byt  1944 they were conscripting 17 year olds, and in early 45 they were conscritinmg 16 year olds ...

Every pound of Spam feeding the Red Army meant fewer farm labourers, every pair of boots provided to Red Army soldiers meant fewer tanners, cobblers and the like. Every pound of explosives or explosive precursors meant fewer chemical and munitions factory workers. And all those warm bodies were fed into the Red Army meat grinder to become ex-warm bodies as soon as the marginally competent leaders could manage it.

As for the T-34, fair design but a crap tank as constructed. And how many of them would have been able tro be manufactured by the Locomotive factories that were converted to Tank production because the allies provided all the Locomotives the Soviets needed during the war (IIRC the Soviets produced less than a dozen between 1942-45).

The Soviets noted they preferred US, Canadian and, yes, even British Tanks over their own because the Lend Lease ones were reliable (and they loved Bren Gun Carriers for recon units). Heck, their breakthrough Armies were limited in number by the number of M3/M5 Halftracks the Allies provided since the Russians built none of their own.

Sure, the Soviets played a part in winning the war, and the Allies most certainly would have had a much harder time if they had collapsed, but they still would have won with nuclear mushroom clouds over German cities in late 1945 without the Soviets.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Both sides downplayed each other's contributions to winning WW2. But there can be no doubt that Lend-Lease was absolutely critical to providing the Soviets with raw materials to make weapons, explosives, and material, as well as in feeding their army and keeping it supplied, something that even Stalin himself acknowledged.

They lost 2/3rds of their chemical industry for making explosives when Ukraine fell in 1941, and it was Lend-Lease that gave them the lifeline. Without Lend-Lease, then the Red Army probably fights with sticks and bayonets in 1943/44.
 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Taranis]

Apparently the Russians must not live on the same planet as us

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Yes, I see them more relying on China on that matter. 

I do not. So far China showed itself as very unreliable partner. 

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

But they do have a vast experience already in rocket , arty systems, AA etc...

Which is worse than western one and China is acquiring Russian knowledge for like 30 years. 

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Anyway WW3 would be suicidal for all of us, no point making assumptions now. 

The war (any war with Russia) stops the moment US declares involvement. Russians will just pack and leave and then will happily celebrate their honorable defeat.

Your comment shows why any Pan European defense will never work. Having no relevant knowledge/experience "old" Europe cannot comprehend neither evilness of Russia not its weakness. That's why "old" Europe will always be tempted to sacrifice stupid eastern Europeans who do not understand that the war with Russia will be suicidal.

Europe security must firmly be anchored on that guy over the pond.  

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

How many of you prefer a rare and pricey sherman in CMRT when you can have a nimble T-34/85

T-34/85 did not appear until 44. For sufficient numbers at frontline we are talking about end of summer. Before that T-34-76 which was anything but nimble. Also it has worse gun, worse survivability and AFAIR had not enough crew members.

[Grigb]

20 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Apparently the Russians must not live on the same planet as us

 

The guy is being like this for some time now. Given he is pussy in reality this talk is puzzling. There is theory that he is doing it to look tough to be considered as Heir apparent.

[Calamine Waffles]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The guy is being like this for some time now. Given he is pussy in reality this talk is puzzling. There is theory that he is doing it to look tough to be considered as Heir apparent.

I don't think Medvedev commands enough respect/fear in the Russian hierarchy to be able to succeed Putin. But really, who does?

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I don't think Medvedev commands enough respect/fear in the Russian hierarchy to be able to succeed Putin. But really, who does?

It is more like he thinks talking tough gives him a chance. Or he wants to be either part of the real nationalist governmental faction or at least get some favors from them. Like his life in case of future cleansing of the house. 

If it is true then we have real nationalist coup to deal with.

EDIT Or he had a fight with his son who I think was resident of US. Or they got a very strong cocaine shipment. That is possible also.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I don't think Medvedev commands enough respect/fear in the Russian hierarchy to be able to succeed Putin. But really, who does?

That's a great question. If Vladimir Vladimorovich was to snuff it tomorrow, what happens then? I'm not a Kremlinologist and don't dare to make any guesses ( mayby only that sequel to "Death of Stalin" will hit the movie theaters in a few years). But maybe some more knowledgable member cares for a little what if? 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Your comment shows why any Pan European defense will never work. Having no relevant knowledge/experience "old" Europe cannot comprehend neither evilness of Russia not its weakness. That's why "old" Europe will always be tempted to sacrifice stupid eastern Europeans who do not understand that the war with Russia will be suicidal.

Europe security must firmly be anchored on that guy over the pond.  

Can we please stop this? I'm seriously tired of reading every few pages how we mollycoddled, money-grubbing "old" europeans have no idea and want to happily sacrifice a few of the wise and strong eastern european countries (who don't need us anyway because they are now allied with the invincible USA) so we can finally go back to trading with Russia in order to let the party continue.

Very much exaggerated on purpose. As I already said here, several times, this helps noone. I am guilty of having discussed politics here more than once but let's keep it civil, shall we?

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Butschi

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I do not. So far China showed itself as very unreliable partner. 

So far. But I was speaking in the event of WW3 , and a hypothectical pact of Russia and China. The prelude is very remiscent of the Germany-Japan pact so something like this came to mind.

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Which is worse than western one and China is acquiring Russian knowledge for like 30 years. 

Not across all platforms. For instance S-400 and S-500 are very capable systems not sure if the West can match these. In Artillery it seems even now quantity plays a big role as we see in Donbas, and having simpler parts that dont require maintenance (see M777 issues). I guess the new master of quantity is China.

18 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The war (any war with Russia) stops the moment US declares involvement. Russians will just pack and leave and then will happily celebrate their honorable defeat.

And when this will happen? When Russia reaches Dnipro? They really do fear nuclear escalation and military losses thats why every conflict they have participated was exhaustingly "sanitized". Maybe they will wait for some years with Russia to become Iraq. And again I was speaking about a hypothetical common Russia/China front. 

 

26 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Your comment shows why any Pan European defense will never work. Having no relevant knowledge/experience "old" Europe cannot comprehend neither evilness of Russia not its weakness. That's why "old" Europe will always be tempted to sacrifice stupid eastern Europeans who do not understand that the war with Russia will be suicidal.

Europe security must firmly be anchored on that guy over the pond.  

Old Europe. Please dont remind me Rumsfeld We shouldnt part with USA of course but EU should be strong enough to find its own way eventually. I suspect once Germany becomes a big military force (admit not always a good idea historically) we will change how we see Europe and maybe people who love big powerful militaries like the US will start to respect them. I still respect Europe for its social achievements more.   

[panzermartin]

46 minutes ago, Grigb said:

T-34/85 did not appear until 44. For sufficient numbers at frontline we are talking about end of summer. Before that T-34-76 which was anything but nimble. Also it has worse gun, worse survivability and AFAIR had not enough crew members.

Won't argue with that. Apart from the survivability maybe as the Shermans (at least early in the war) had a bad name to the point they were called ronsons from the lighter brand. And we have to at least give credit to the T-34 engineers for impressing their germans colleagues so much, that they based the best tank design of the war on it, the Panther. 

[Calamine Waffles]

5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Won't argue with that. Apart from the survivability maybe as the Shermans (at least early in the war) had a bad name to the point they were called ronsons from the lighter brand. And we have to at least give credit to the T-34 engineers for impressing their germans colleagues so much, that they based the best tank design of the war on it, the Panther. 

Are we really bringing up the whole Ronson myth again? In 2022?

https://www.theshermantank.com/category/ronsons/
 

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Are we really bringing up the whole Ronson myth again? In 2022?

https://www.theshermantank.com/category/ronsons/

I'm sorry, I'm not following the M4 sherman on social media anymore  

[Beleg85]

35 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Can we please stop this? I'm seriously tired of reading every few pages how we mollycoddled, money-grubbing "old" europeans have no idea and want to happily sacrifice a few of the wise and strong eastern european countries (who don't need us anyway because because they are now allied with the invincible USA) so we can finally go back to trading with Russia in order to let the party continue.

Very much exaggerated on purpose. As I already said here, several times, this helps noone. I am guilty of having discussed politics here more than once but let's keep it civil, shall we?

Fair points. However, it will be difficult to keep by as political reality will pop itself anyway following months and cannot be separated from progress of this war. The real test will come when Russia will recognize its defeat and reasons for negotiations arise. I fear that in such moment rifts as to the security concerns can even broke the European Union, mentally if not legally. Security will matter for CEE members more than anything else- I hope everybody understands by now that it's not beacause some innate russophobia or lack of political understanding on Central Europe part.

Also, nobody says we "don't need you know", very much opposite is true actually. Do not listen to rants of populistic PL governemnt, it's 90% for their domestic purposes as they try to reinvent themselves in eyes of public opinion This does not keep with expectations of majority of population. Neither in Baltics, too.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

The guy is being like this for some time now. Given he is pussy in reality this talk is puzzling. There is theory that he is doing it to look tough to be considered as Heir apparent.

The way to understand Medvedev is to realize that he says exactly what Putin wants him to at all times. 

[billbindc]

42 minutes ago, Huba said:

That's a great question. If Vladimir Vladimorovich was to snuff it tomorrow, what happens then? I'm not a Kremlinologist and don't dare to make any guesses ( mayby only that sequel to "Death of Stalin" will hit the movie theaters in a few years). But maybe some more knowledgable member cares for a little what if? 

You would likely end up with a post-Stalin period of contending leadership at least initially led (de facto if no de jure) by this nasty piece of work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

[Calamine Waffles]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

You would likely end up with a post-Stalin period of contending leadership at least initially led (de facto if no de jure) by this nasty piece of work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

Yeah, that's not really something you want in a nuclear state. The same for a civil war.

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Can we please stop this? I'm seriously tired of reading every few pages how we mollycoddled, money-grubbing "old" europeans have no idea and want to happily sacrifice a few of the wise and strong eastern european countries (who don't need us anyway because they are now allied with the invincible USA) so we can finally go back to trading with Russia in order to let the party continue.

I am not beating "old" Europeans. I am not saying you are bad guys who help Putin. On the contrary I am saying you are good guys. And this is the core of your problem. Being away from Russia you have no relevant experience/knowledge. As result you apply your good guy mentality to a problem that requires exactly the opposite approach.

Your approach works with 99% of the problems. And that is great! Unfortunately, it does not work with 1 problem we face now. And that is why Pan-European Alliance will not work. Some problems require a different mentality. 

You are doing great with help of Ukraine. You are valuable Allies of Ukraine. Please forgive Ukrainians their anger - they are in the mortal struggle now. They are too emotional right now. We are all too emotional right now. 

So, if you think that I offended you i apologize profusely.

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Apparently the Russians must not live on the same planet as us

 

Medvedev has always been Putin's puppet.

Maybe some of the crazy things he has been saying recently is an attempt to make Putin look like the rational one by comparison. Zherinovsky is dead now so Putin needs a new court jester.

Kind of like the good cop bad cop routine.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[kraze]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Did they lend lease and the 25 million people that had to die to reach Berlin. Geez...So if Ukraine wins this war it will be a NATO victory above all, because of the M777 and the Caesars right....How many of you prefer a rare and pricey sherman in CMRT when you can have a nimble T-34/85  Lend Lease came at the right moment when things were on a turning point but it didnt win the war for the soviets.

The West also underplayed USSR and exaggerated its contribution to the war, through popular culture, through politics, through the Cold War lens...Thats why I guess was watching a doc named "Unknown War"  from 1978. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0483223/The eastern front was an unknown unpopular subject in the West up until the 80s. Crazy if you realize that it was the main chapter of the War. Anyway, Cold war distorted things for both sides and the Soviets also lived in their myth that they were the ones that beat Hitler alone but lets not talk nonsense. 

Every 2nd bullet and almost all supply trucks were US-made. Try winning the war without bullets or literally no trucks to deliver them with. Heck you can even say every 2nd soviet tank past 1943 existed thanks to US because it was made of metals US provided with the factory tools US provided, resources USSR didn't have.

The whole turning point happened exactly because of lend-lease. USSR was retreating pants down because they lost most of their military potential in a failed "we gotta attack Germany first" plan. That "one rifle per three men" propaganda wasn't far off from reality after that epic fail of giving most your stuff to Germany to tractor away.

And yes - without overabundance of NLAWs and Javelins Ukrainian army would've had extremely harder time defending in the immediate days of the full scale invasion. And yes - we have almost no 152mm shells left - which is the reason frontline is so static because there's not enough western arty and ammo to replace that - YET. Without US/EU support frontlines may have been drawn in a very different place on the map.

Edited June 16, 2022 by kraze