Russian Appearance CM Black Sea

[JMDECC]

Considering how much variation is seen among Russian troops in terms of what they're wearing in combat, I'm curious as to how they'll be represented in CM Black Sea. If you go through reference pictures within the last several years, you'll see all kinds of crazy different patterns being used by Russian forces. Flora, Digital Flora, Mountain Flora, Izlom, Kamysh, SS-Summer, SMOG pattern, Flecktarn-D, Berezka, various types of Gorka, even multicam these days…etc.

From what I understand the game will be set a few years in the future (I think I last read 2017?) so I'm curious, will we be seeing more of a standardized & uniform force or will it be more along the mismatched lines of what we saw during the South Ossetia conflict? The new ability to change appearances would be great if multiple/various camo patterns are included.

[ScoutPL]

I cant imagine they will get too deep. No one gets more variation in their uniform than an insurgent force and I think CMSF did a good job of capturing that without having to spend endless hours painting pixels. As always, if you want more variation wait for the mods or start educating yourself on how to create your own.

I think the real interesting part of how BFC attacks the Russian force will be in the TO&E. I think the long list of uniform choices you put forward is very indicative of the changes their Army has gone through over the last few decades. Severe budget cuts, aging equipment, degradation in training budgets, force reduction, all of that over the years has made some serious impacts. Of course, Putin's sensitivity to public relations and his international image will have kept the more elite (showcase) forces in shiny new boots, but my bet is the average Motorized Rifle Regiment is operating at 50% due to personnel, equipment, and maintenance shortages.

[John Kettler]

Gunhappy42,

Recall that the lead units which invaded Georgia had BMP-1s! The use of lower readiness formations was done so an attack in place could be conducted, rather than a readily detected mobilization. The same approach was earlier used in the invasion of Afghanistan. Given these occurrences, it's entirely reasonable to have Category B and Category C units represented in-game. BTW, the two tank divisions paraded through Red Square are called court divisions, and all they do is play dress up. Their combat capability is nil, because they do no battle training. All show and no go!

Regards,

John Kettler

[MOS:96B2P]

Gunhappy42,

Recall that the lead units which invaded Georgia had BMP-1s! The use of lower readiness formations was done so an attack in place could be conducted, rather than a readily detected mobilization. The same approach was earlier used in the invasion of Afghanistan. Given these occurrences, it's entirely reasonable to have Category B and Category C units represented in-game. BTW, the two tank divisions paraded through Red Square are called court divisions, and all they do is play dress up. Their combat capability is nil, because they do no battle training. All show and no go!

Regards,

John Kettler

Good info John. Having some lower category units would help with game balance. The historical examples you provided would make their use realistic. Realism and balance are good foundations for scenarios.

[John Kettler]

MOS:96B2P,

Glad you found it useful. Of course, given all the sturm und drang in the planned game location, it would seem fairly likely that BFC may have to come up with a new locale for the conflict to be modeled. That's about all I dare say without risking chastisement by Moon. One such was quite enough.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Mastiff]

there also using digi cams as well

[ScoutPL]

Category B and C units are welcomed! That way my Abrams and Bradley Platoons can roll up the same body counts they got in CMSF against T-72s and BMP-2s.

[Saferight]

Gunhappy42,

Recall that the lead units which invaded Georgia had BMP-1s! The use of lower readiness formations was done so an attack in place could be conducted, rather than a readily detected mobilization.

They also had T-55's and T-62's deployed as well. I believe the 58th Army and north caucasus military district was still in the middle of modernization at the time.

[ScoutPL]

I'm sure all of that was based on their threat assessment. I cant imagine the Georgians being able to field anything close to what the Russians could, even in a rural border district. Going up against a NATO "show of force" or peacekeeping task force would be an entirely different matter. It just all depends on how they want to write it.

[Stagler]

Russian forces in lower priority military districts do have older kit, these category B and C units are maintained to fight counterinsurgency and for category B conventional operations, thus they were sent to Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia.

Category A units however such as 106th and 76th Guards VDV, and 4th Guards tank div are all at high readiness in the western military district but their kit is all centrally stored forcing them to be moved by rail, or by airlift/air landing to their starting line. These are the units that are equipped with BMP-3M, BMD-4, T-90MS, T-90M, T-80UM and eventually ARMATA by 2017. The May Day Red Square parade units are not household units, every year a different guards unit gets a chance to take part in the parade and they swap around different units. Some years you will see VDV and some Tank or Motor-Rifle units. I think two years ago there was a naval infantry unit.

DIS.

Edit: Oops I forgot to say, by 2017 Russian Ground forces are SUPPOSED to be equipped with the new digital pattern uniform entirely. This will remain to be seen, but is planned.

[Stagler]

Russian forces in lower priority military districts do have older kit, these category B and C units are maintained to fight counterinsurgency and for category B conventional operations, thus they were sent to Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia.

Category A units however such as 106th and 76th Guards VDV, and 4th Guards tank div are all at high readiness in the western military district but their kit is all centrally stored forcing them to be moved by rail, or by airlift/air landing to their starting line. These are the units that are equipped with BMP-3M, BMD-4, T-90MS, T-90M, T-80UM and eventually ARMATA by 2017. The May Day Red Square parade units are not household units, every year a different guards unit gets a chance to take part in the parade and they swap around different units. Some years you will see VDV and some Tank or Motor-Rifle units. I think two years ago there was a naval infantry unit.

Edit: Oops I forgot to say, by 2017 Russian Ground forces are SUPPOSED to be equipped with the new digital pattern uniform entirely. This will remain to be seen, but is planned.

Information from RAE 14 also indicated a new modular system similar to Stryker coming into service maybe into the timeframe of the game. Kurganets I believe.

Should be a good match up for near future US Army forces, I am less familiar with their in-progress new platforms however.

The baseline hybrid force that most Nato armies have in contingency training is equipped with 1990-2000 era kit as standard.

I'm looking forward to seeing modern Russian close combat attack aviation in action.

[akd]

These are the units that are equipped with BMP-3M, BMD-4, T-90MS, T-90M, T-80UM and eventually ARMATA by 2017.

Other than small numbers of BMD-4, no one is equipped with these AFVs. 4th TD has T-80U (although I hear various things on what exactly constitutes a T-80UM), but last I read they were are supposed to switch to T-72B3. Recent new production/overhaul vehicles consist mostly of T-72B3s and BTR-82As. Seems they are moving to standardize on a mix of T-90A, T-72B3, BMP-3, BMP-2 and BTR-82A, at least in the Western and Southern districts. BMP-3M and BMP-2M are yet to be seen in service. It is highly doubtful that any new T-90s will be pursued with Armata on the near horizon. T-90SM is intended for export customers, but is not in production.

"Kurganets-25" is a tracked BMP replacement. "Boomerang" is a wheeled BTR replacement.

[Stagler]

Other than small numbers of BMD-4, no one is equipped with these AFVs. 4th TD has T-80U (although I hear various things on what exactly constitutes a T-80UM), but last I read they were are supposed to switch to T-72B3. Recent new production/overhaul vehicles consist mostly of T-72B3s and BTR-82As. Seems they are moving to standardize on a mix of T-90A, T-72B3, BMP-3, BMP-2 and BTR-82A, at least in the Western and Southern districts. BMP-3M and BMP-2M are yet to be seen in service. It is highly doubtful that any new T-90s will be pursued with Armata on the near horizon. T-90SM is intended for export customers, but is not in production.

"Kurganets-25" is a tracked BMP replacement. "Boomerang" is a wheeled BTR replacement.

You are correct it is boomerang.

T-80UD i meant, is now being stored by those tank units for use in wartime and because maintenance costs. BMP-3M is in service, the one you probably are thinking of is bmp-3m with kontakt package which was a test platform. 3m package is upgraded engine and fighting compartment. Here is some from parade: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/2010russiatour/attachement/jpg/site1/20100507/0023ae6cf3690d4e075460.jpg

T-90MS tagil is being proposed to army. Who knows if they might purchase some in the black sea prospective future.

[akd]

You are correct it is boomerang.

T-80UD i meant, is now being stored by those tank units for use in wartime and because maintenance costs.

Yes, lots of old stuff still in storage.

BMP-3M is in service, the one you probably are thinking of is bmp-3m with kontakt package which was a test platform. 3m package is upgraded engine and fighting compartment. Here is some from parade: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/2010russiatour/attachement/jpg/site1/20100507/0023ae6cf3690d4e075460.jpg

AFAIK, those are BMP-3s, although there may be some confusion over what constitutes a "BMP-3M." Some BMP-3s have definitely received minor updates, but latest production BMP-3M (with Vesna-K thermal sight) can be seen in service with Azerbaijan as of 2013. Kontakt ERA cannot be installed on BMP-3. The base armor is too thin. Standard BMP-3 has been trialed with "Kaktus" ERA.

T-90MS tagil is being proposed to army. Who knows if they might purchase some in the black sea prospective future.

Who knows...

[John Kettler]

akd,

We may find out sooner rather than later. Putin Wednesday ordered no-notice readiness readiness inspections in the Western and Central Military Districts, as well as Strategic Aviation, Long-Range, Transport Aviation, Airborne, etc. The Defense Minister himself so stated in a press conference Wednesday at the Ministry of Defense. Now, where can I get a copy of his readiness report? Bet that would make interesting reading!

http://rbth.ru/news/2014/02/26/putin_orders_sudden_operability_test_of_russian_armed_forces_34575.html

My analysis? This is either a very large military saber being rattled, or one of a long line of exercises and such which have been maskirovka for invasion. Either way, I think BFC's now in a foot race to get CMBS out before a sudden game venue change perhaps becomes necessary. The good news? Am told, by knowledgeable contacts, it'll take a couple of weeks to get the report done, but probably a month. The expectation is that the readiness numbers won't look good, in turn necessitating a "get well" program.

Beyond the above, I'm not prepared to go, lest Moon should sweep down and smite me with the dread Infraction.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

This should cause grogs and modders alike to need new underwear! Granted, it's designed to make Spetsnaz FSB look good, but it also makes my point from earlier--no U.S. monopoly on high tech toys and tactics. Note particularly the weapons (similar types of sights to ours) and multiple types of cammies, Vintorez sniper rifle, 40mm under-barrel grenade launcher.

Not shown, but our 40mm M32 revolving grenade launcher has a Russian 40mm counterpart, RG6.

http://world.guns.ru/grenade/rus/rg-6-e.html

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Here's what I believe to be Spetsnaz GRU, wearing lots of different cammies, including winter 'flage, sometimes in combination. Also, a good look at some of the other gear.

Regards,

John Kettler

[LUCASWILLEN05]

akd,

We may find out sooner rather than later. Putin Wednesday ordered no-notice readiness readiness inspections in the Western and Central Military Districts, as well as Strategic Aviation, Long-Range, Transport Aviation, Airborne, etc. The Defense Minister himself so stated in a press conference Wednesday at the Ministry of Defense. Now, where can I get a copy of his readiness report? Bet that would make interesting reading!

http://rbth.ru/news/2014/02/26/putin_orders_sudden_operability_test_of_russian_armed_forces_34575.html

My analysis? This is either a very large military saber being rattled, or one of a long line of exercises and such which have been maskirovka for invasion. Either way, I think BFC's now in a foot race to get CMBS out before a sudden game venue change perhaps becomes necessary. The good news? Am told, by knowledgeable contacts, it'll take a couple of weeks to get the report done, but probably a month. The expectation is that the readiness numbers won't look good, in turn necessitating a "get well" program.

Beyond the above, I'm not prepared to go, lest Moon should sweep down and smite me with the dread Infraction.

Regards,

John Kettler

If the Russians do take military acton it could be this weekend. There are repors this evening that planeloads of Russian troops have been landing at some Ukrnian and the UK Foreign Office has been warning nationals to leave TheRussians will probably go for an annexation of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea and may try to achieve this without a fight. But it only takes one trigger happy guy to kick off an armed conflict.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26387567

[Stagler]

Russian appearance in CM Black Sea?

Here, a Russian appearance, in the Black Sea Region

[John Kettler]

LUCASWILLEN05,

Based on what I'm seeing, and what I know of how Russia operates militarily, it's already a done deal. The Russians have secure lodgments (ringed with troops) at the two airheads and are therefore positioned to airland larger formations, as was done in Czechoslovakia, but by coup de main there to seize control. The approach here seems (don't have any info; who knows what really happened?) to be lower profile and without gunfire, yet every bit as effective.

BBC's reporting that access to both Sevastapol (Bel'bek) and Simferopol airport are blocked by armed men. These guys, per pics and video I've seen, are in full modern battle rattle, have new or new looking Russian type military trucks, are wearing balaclavas and there no uniform or vehicle markings at all. There are apparently APCs (type unspecified) at Bel'bek in addition to trucks, but I've seen no pics of them. The deliberately uncommunicative soldiers surround the tower at Simferopol Airport (seen video) and Bel'bek (by report).

There is an addiional report, unsurprisingly denied by Russia, that 5 xil-76 CANDID transports have landed, reportedly carrying 150 men each. 750 men. That may not be the only troop movement. The private intel firm AGT reported rumored movement of 45th Independent Special Forces Division (Spetsnaz) from Kubinka Air Base, a key location. If the unit is even broadly correct, the size isn't. The 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment happens to be based at Kubinka. It's the result of amalgamating what we called, in my threat analyst days, an Air Assault Battalion and a VDV Spetsnaz Battalion. It's directly subordinated to the VDV but OPCON (Operational Control) to the GRU! Amplifying the above is that personnel from the 45th, in 4 x Il-76, went to Anapa on the Black Sea, together with 8 x Mi-8, this per the Russian Navy officially.

Additionally, Ukraine has charged Russia with invasion. Interestingly, Russia denies Russian Navy involvement. Well it should, because my contacts have informed me a week plus of exercises preceded the amphibious landing of Russian Naval Infantry. There are D-Day style antitank hedgehogs (seen the pics) up protecting the entrance to the Russian naval base at Sevastopol. The ALLIGATOR-class Large Landing Ship Nikolai Fil'chenkov arrived February 24th. Reportedly, she brought in 200 men and 10 BTR-80s. Maybe that LLS provided both the soldiery at both sites and the reported APCs? Reasonable notion, but having no intel on what was at the Sevastopol base to begin with, maybe unneeded.

If the 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment is in play, I suspect the military objective may well be all of Ukraine. With Spetsnaz in Anapa, the Crimea can be assaulted from the east. Would expect seizure of Kerch Straits and then port of Feodosiya. The Russians are already on the west side of the Crimea. These, combined with reports of Russian ground forces massing at Belgorod, would appear to presage, at best for Ukraine, a ground assault with axes Belgorod, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovosk, Zaporozhiye, Nikopol, Melitopol into the Crimea for one drive; the other would be Belgorod, Kharkov, Poltava, Kirovgrad to Moldovan border.

If successful, Russia would regain strategic ports of Sevastopol and Odessa (sine qua non warm water ports and traditional Russian naval bastions), would deprive the Ukraine of all sea access, would've taken a third of the country in very short order and would be splendidly positioned to continue from there.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

The Beeb's got footage up of the occupation "by armed men" of the Crimean Parliament building. These guys came to play, complete with a smoke grenade to block interior CCTV. Somebody at least temporily forgot the one outside!

Am sure I saw a suppressed 12.7mm sniper rifle. Definitely saw an LMG and what looked like ammo cans. Men wore full battle gear, including body armor and heavy packs, and appeared to be heavily armed. Saw several AK-74s. Lots of presumptive weapons were shrouded and blended in with other pack gear. Elsewhere, the State TV station (can't recall which city) has been occupied, and there are reports of jamming and disconnects on fiber optic trunk lines into and out of the Ukraine. There have been self-identified Black Sea Marines occupying various key locations, too.

All in all, the Russian invasion checklist is being followed by the numbers. Attack following perceived relaxation of tension. Create maskirovka for invasion via exercises and training. Gain airheads, preparatory to bringing in main force. Seize governmental facilities. Seize communication means. Control the story and make numerous overt and back channel reassurances it isn't what it looks like. It would appear the Russians haven't captured the actual interim Ukraine president or other key officials, but this was't that kind of act. Yet.

(receives hot new info before post can be completed)

Update!

Am now told the Russians have directly invaded Ukraine from the east, but so far, I have no details. The U.S. military/intelligence view, per terrific contacts, is that Russia's not stopping with the Crimea or the chunk I mentioned. Russia evidently plans, from a military perspective, to take over the entire country of Ukraine!

Regards,

John Kettler

[MOS:96B2P]

If the 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment is in play, I suspect the military objective may well be all of Ukraine. With Spetsnaz in Anapa, the Crimea can be assaulted from the east. Would expect seizure of Kerch Straits and then port of Feodosiya. The Russians are already on the west side of the Crimea. These, combined with reports of Russian ground forces massing at Belgorod, would appear to presage, at best for Ukraine, a ground assault with axes Belgorod, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovosk, Zaporozhiye, Nikopol, Melitopol into the Crimea for one drive; the other would be Belgorod, Kharkov, Poltava, Kirovgrad to Moldovan border.

Regards,

John Kettler

John, if the Russians send in heavy ground forces it will be interesting to see if they use the axes of advance you came up with from your analysis. I used Google earth to look at some of the terrain south of Belgorod / south of the border. A lot looked like farm land like we have in the Midwest. But there did seem to be some areas of restricted terrain. If they are seriously challenged by Ukraine and forced to deploy on their move south there could be heavy fighting around those areas. I don't know what Ukraine has or what condition their units are in. (I'm guessing old Warsaw Pact stuff) Do you have any idea what kind of fight they can put up if they so choose?

[John Kettler]

MOS:96B2P,

Mine was a quick and dirty analysis based on a Google Map (not satellite view) of the primary routes coming into Ukraine, coupled with a few knowns and some informed speculation. Am not generally used to thinking militarily at such a high level, but a major route of advance can't, and to my mind won't, be ignored.

Let's look for a minute at past Russian invasion practices, starting with Czechoslovakia.

Per Suvorov/Rezun, who was there (see The Liberators, p. 168), the Russians not only ruthlessly pushed broken vehicles off the road and down the steep mountainside, but in order to get there faster, they deliberately did the same thing to one vehicle category after another, including their commo vans--with the TOP SECRET crypto gear in them and undemolished. Have separate confirmation of Suvorov's account. It was speed, speed and more speed to get into Czechoslovakia before things there came totally unhinged, before the Czechoslovakian Army, deliberately run into the ground via live fire exercises and subsequent maintenance (things like tank-sidelining "mandatory" battery removal), could regroup and offer some sort of resistance; before NATO might decide to intervene. That contingency was planned for and explicit ROE's were issued. Russian objective was to make sure Russia occupied more of Czechoslovakia than NATO did, then let the diplomats sort it out. Key parts of that invasion came via a dusty narrow road running through unforgiving terrain between Russia and Czechoslovakia. This axis of attack started in the Carpathian Front.

In Afghanistan, the invasion also had to pass a critical chokepoint, the Salang Tunnel in the Salang Pass. So great was the traffic to get into Afghanistan that pics exist of a line of military vehicles which are bumper to bumper as far as the eye can see in the shot. Later, the Muj wreaked havoc in the Salang Tunnel, blowing up several POL tankers and turning the inside of the place into a blackened charnel house.

And what do we find in the Georgia War? Another chokepoint. The Roki Tunnel. The Russians seized the tunnel, just as they did in Afghanistan, but the Georgians had aircraft and fought back, bombing the tunnel several times. They hurt the Russians but couldn't stop the flow.

History shows the Russians can and will go where it's officially impossible for them to go. In Op Bagration, they built corduroy roads through swamps. In August Storm, they brought their armor over the impassable Great Kinghan Mountains into Manchuria. Loza talks about this at IRemember.ru and in his books.

What to us is at best a trail is to them a road, an attitude helped by living in a nation most of whose major roads were rammed dirt! I used to hammer my colleagues about this at Hughes when analyzing any offensive scenario involving Russian, Warsaw Pact or patterned that way forces. It's all about achieving surprise, and masses of armor coming out of the swamp definitely accomplish that goal.

I have no idea what the road network looks like in terms of secondary, tertiary even quaternary routes, but rest assured, they do. And have long thought about it. Spetsnaz, Airborne and Air Assault units will make every effort (die trying) to take and secure tunnels, bridges, defiles, ferries, fords, etc., in advance of the invasion force proper. The same is probably even more true with rail, for that's how things really move there. True during WW II and true now. Working in their favor is that, unlike the Russia-Poland transition at the border, the Ukraine rail network has the same gauge as the Russian rail network. This facilitates rapid movement and removes a high leverage target, the striking of which would really hurt. It wouldn't surprise me at all to receive one or more reports of key rail nodes suddenly occupied by swarms of detraining passengers, who aren't, with guns.

If I had the maps to hand and a few other facts, starting with the Russian OOB and what unit's where, I could draw some more conclusions, but "invading Ukraine in the east" isn't adequate. Period.

Ukraine Combat Forces

Ukraine currently has no overall Commander of Ground Forces. Ouch. The prior one was ousted by the now ousted president.

Ukraine has what appear to me to be highly credible weaponry, with ~2300 T-64 of which ~700 are B and BV models, 271 T-80UDs and some 1300 T-72s in storage. Figure ~1000 BMP-1, 1400 BMP-2; ~1400 BTR-70, ~460 BTR-80 and some 2300 MTLB. Roughly 30 Mi-8 and 40 Mi-24 are the real combat helos, plus 19 honking Mi-26s (0 troops of 44,000 pounds of cargo).

Artillery's scary. For the Russians. 450 BM-21, 76 BM-27 , 100 BM-30 (BM-27 and BM-30 (deep strike weapons with modern munitions, to include SFW), 638 2S1s, 501 2S3s, rounded out by 24 deep strike 2S5s and 24 Msta S. 433 D-20s as well.

ATGMs are AT-4,5,13 and 14. AT-14 is the dread Kornet, the homeland version!

Air defense makes what Georgia had look like a nonevent, with everything from SA-18 MANPADS to SA-12 long range SAM, and in the middle lie the SA-11, like the one that ate the BACKFIRE C over Georgia, and the very scary SA-15 thrust vectoring SAM. Were I the Russians, I'd be worried. 30 ZSU-23/4 and unknown numbers of 2S6.

The above were yanked out of this list.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces#cite_note-gs-32

Ukraine Air Force

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force

Could really use the Tu-22Ms scrapped for lack of money! 16 combat ready Su-27, 48 total. 80 Mig-29, 100 in reserve. 36 Su-24M operational, 24 recce Su-24. 36 Su-25 ready, 48 total. Oh! 28 active Mi-8/17 and 48 Mi-24. 39 L-39 trainers, which can carry ordnance.

Not enough time to go into the other factors, but the Ukraine theoretically could put up a significant fight.

Ukraine Map Server

(Screams for want of Ukraine Area Handbook--would have roads and rail networks))

http://www.infoukes.com/ua-maps/

Decent Ukraine relief map, but no elevations, no cities, no roads and no rails. Gah!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ukraine_relief_location_map.jpg

CIA was a bust, but NYT helps a bit.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html

In looking at the Russian military district map, the exercise alerts (exercises through March 3) went to the Western and Central MD. "Look this way!" Perfect distraction for a strike westwards from Southern MD! Ukraine does have a fair force on its eastern side. See inset map in top link.

92nd Guards Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine) is unit closest to eastern border. I don't read Russian, but the Russian Wiki is extensive compared to the mostly useless English version.

http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/92-я_отдельная_механизированная_бригада_(Украина)

The Google Map really needs multiple layers, like my local rapid transit map. This one shows the main routes, from which it's clear Kharkov's critical, being the junction of three major routes. Likewise, Poltava is critical to any drive west, since it has a fork for a highway doing exactly that. That route's significance is based on a take the whole country model.

https://www.google.com/maps/@48.5141904,33.1384364,712947m/data=!3m1!1e3

Am going to stop now. Hope this helps.

Regards,

John Kettler

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Question is what the Russian strategic objectives are going to be.

1 hey could go for broke and go for a full scale invasion intended to put their man in Kiev back in power. This o say the least would be a highy risky plan for all sorts of political and military reasons.

Which is why I think somethong like this is more plausible

2 Russia moves in to grab Crimea and Eastern Ukraine where they havew a strong pro Russian, Russian speaking population.It looks to me that his is the option Putin has chosen. It may prove to be an Anschluss style operation or it may involve a limited war like Georgia but on a far larger scale. Of course, in this case a lot more can still go wrong and there will certaily be scope for future hostilities betwee the two countries.

The best way out for Putin in the real world would be s negotiatd solution. He can still end up with the Crimea and part of Eastern Ukraine while the rest of the country moves towards the EU

[MOS:96B2P]

Thanks John. It never ceases to amaze me how quickly you can compile so much information in such a short amount of time with references and analytical commentary included. I am still reading through the references. (This will take awhile.) It does seem Ukraine has a more robust military than I imagined. (At least on paper) Some of the references I have gone through indicate Ukraine has a military industrial complex that is independent of Russia. This would help give Ukraine some endurance in any conflict since they will obviously not be able to rely on Russia for spare parts and technical assistance. The morning news reported the Russians are attempting to take control of an air defense site in Crimea. This might go hot anytime now.