ArmouredTopHat

Russians managed to lose a significant part of another S-300/400 battery from a GMLRS strike recently. More complacency about western weapons hitting valuable assets again. Why the hell are they not relocating such valuable assets the moment they knew HIMARS could hit them?
 
 

Feel like this is relevant to the topic on hand. It does truly baffle me how the Russians are putting up with such reckless, casual waste of life on a continued basis. I know states and peoples are quite resilient when it comes down to this, but there surely has to be a point where it all starts to catch up and create real pressure. 

Losing half a company in a single action is utter insanity. 

I would postulate that any attempts to seriously mutiny or otherwise disobey orders are treated very harshly. We hear a lot of horror stories about caging soldiers, denying them medical treatment and just general poor levels of treatment by other units or officers as typical measures put in place.

The thing with such measures is it does not eliminate the reasons why the soldiers are understandably upset, and one wonders if it might lead to more dangerous implosions down the line as things drag on. Incidents where Russian officers are killed are ones to look out for if large enough units of soldiers finally snap and decide to take matters into their own hands. Its happened before in Russian history in similar situations and these were not exactly pretty. 

I think F-16 can substantially reduce the glider bombing threat simply with presence. I mentioned this in an earlier post but simply painting the offending incoming jets with their search radars would probably result in an effective mission kill and a jettison of bombs. Depending on the AMRAAM version Ukrainian F-16s will use the kill box might be a little more generous than we assume and force the VKS to be even more cautious.  

Its not going to stop every bomb strike but a consistent enough presence of F-16s will significantly hamper effective sortie rate and hopefully give some relief to the soldiers on the ground. Right now they can fly with near total impunity for glide bombing outside of the lesser chance a Patriot is moved up into range. We have already seen how slow it takes for the Russians to adapt as their operations are constrained, so we might even see a bunch of kills as well prior to this. 

I have been asking myself how on earth the RA is holding itself together for about 6 months now.  The first year, ok, any military has built in resilience.  That winter offensive in ‘23, pretty horrendous but “crazy F’n Russians”.  But the fall-winter offensive this last year…?  I have no idea how a military holds itself together after these kind of losses. Not just the dead soldiers but we are talking NCOs and officers too.  Granted the RA never really made any significant gains but still, all these losses in people and equipment have to add up eventually.  Every human organization has a breaking point and cannot sustain attrition forever.  I can say that I am confident that whatever military the RA is now, it is a shadow of the one that crossed the borders in ‘22.  All of the peacetime qualified crews, technicians and specialists have to be so severely attrited by now that all the RA can do is “meat offensives.”  Or dig in and hold on.  The professional RA has been shattered in this war.

Feel like this is relevant to the topic on hand. It does truly baffle me how the Russians are putting up with such reckless, casual waste of life on a continued basis. I know states and peoples are quite resilient when it comes down to this, but there surely has to be a point where it all starts to catch up and create real pressure. 

Losing half a company in a single action is utter insanity. 

Not so much unpleasant as nonsensical.

To be fair to the Russians they didn't have to hide until now. And they really want to learn the hard way at every step 
 

The significant difference is that there are checks and balances in place in western militaries that serve to expose corruption..... and they are very effective. Furthermore, there are serious consequences anyone caught adopting corrupt practices.

Moreover, the problem with countries like Russia and Ukraine is that it's not only military shenanigans, it's literally everything; bribes for this, a top slice for that! It's not an exaggeration to state that its endemic. In the west, especially those nations within the EU, there are extensive regulations underpinned by EU laws governing how commerce operates including a significant degree of transparency, much more than there is in the US. The average citizen (not referring to anyone on this forum) often underestimate the fundamental role of regulatory law (as well as enforcement) to deter corruption to the extent that it is severely curtailed.
  
EDIT: What I'm getting at is that it's the total ineffectiveness of any governing framework (inc proper separation of powers ) that's at the real heart of the problem.
 

Provided you have the information and can make pragmatic assessments based on reasoning and evidence, even armchair generals can make pretty accurate assessments / conclusions on military operations. We can be overwhelmingly pro Ukraine and still make such balanced assessments regarding both sides military operations provided we scrutinise the AFU in the same we do to the Russians (The Ukrainians can and do make mistakes that have received plenty of criticisms here and elsewhere)  

Saying that something 'failed dismally' without much of anything to back it up is both crude and in this case flies in the face of reality, at least from the information that we have access to.

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

Were getting some very interesting reports from today. Remember when I mentioned the Russians were complaining? Whenever their mil bloggers get this upset, its usually because of pretty colossal mistakes. (Even for the Russians)
 
Yet this is seemingly a disaster for Ukraine? (according to Viko)

*Edit*

Now also reports of significant counter attacks

Getting the distinct impression that in true Russian fashion, nobody bothered to prepare staging areas across the border to effectively minimize the damage should the rules of engagement imposed by the US and other nations change. Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose.

Your continued use of Kharkov instead of Kharkiv belies your intentions here. Everyone I have talked to in Ukraine, including Russian speakers since the invasion never refer to the Russian spellings for city names because the Russian propaganda pushes it so hard (To convey the notion that they 'belong' to Russia or otherwise legitimise their claim. They will -never- refer to these cities according to their Ukrainian names)

The fact you insist to use such nomenclature is a dead give away to me that you are not being genuine with us here, not to mention your lack of actual evidence supplied. 

Your continued use of Kharkov instead of Kharkiv belies your intentions here. Everyone I have talked to in Ukraine, including Russian speakers since the invasion never refer to the Russian spellings for city names because the Russian propaganda pushes it so hard (To convey the notion that they 'belong' to Russia or otherwise legitimise their claim. They will -never- refer to these cities according to their Ukrainian names)

The fact you insist to use such nomenclature is a dead give away to me that you are not being genuine with us here, not to mention your lack of actual evidence supplied. 

Your continued use of Kharkov instead of Kharkiv belies your intentions here. Everyone I have talked to in Ukraine, including Russian speakers since the invasion never refer to the Russian spellings for city names because the Russian propaganda pushes it so hard (To convey the notion that they 'belong' to Russia or otherwise legitimise their claim. They will -never- refer to these cities according to their Ukrainian names)

The fact you insist to use such nomenclature is a dead give away to me that you are not being genuine with us here, not to mention your lack of actual evidence supplied. 

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

Russia attacked Ukraine and after the debactaculer showing it has made so far must win decisively and outright at this point to come somewhere within shouting distance of the strategic goals Putin was set on achieving. Ukraine must simply survive as an independent state to achieve its own. 
How exactly has the Kharkiv offensive furthered Russia's strategic goals? How has giving up some low single digit percentage of turf in exchange for ruinous losses to the attacker significantly endangered Ukraine's? 
We both know the answers which is why it's obvious you are simply trolling.

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

I certainly think its a little slept on just how sophisticated Ukrainian decoy measures have grown during the conflict. Its taking full advantage of the...questionable optic quality on a lot of Russian spotting assets. I really do wonder just how many Lancets / other assets have been tied up hitting such targets. 

According to visual data, the Russians lost a truly crazy amount of equipment in that area despite the relatively small scale of the battle over the months for minor gain in return. Russian telegrams were -furious- about the constant claims that the area had been retaken when they were in fact dying like flies trying retake it. 
 


The fact it took this long for the Russians to finally retake a narrow, minor beachhead is more indicative of serious issues with Russian forces in the region, because they were certainly not profiting from attrition. 

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

According to visual data, the Russians lost a truly crazy amount of equipment in that area despite the relatively small scale of the battle over the months for minor gain in return. Russian telegrams were -furious- about the constant claims that the area had been retaken when they were in fact dying like flies trying retake it. 
 


The fact it took this long for the Russians to finally retake a narrow, minor beachhead is more indicative of serious issues with Russian forces in the region, because they were certainly not profiting from attrition. 

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/05/31/a-lighter-high-tech-abrams-tank-is-taking-shape/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw_dfn

Seems the US have scrapped further upgrades to current line M1A2s and are now going for an M1E3 with some interesting adjustments. Lower weight and a mandatory APS system strike out to me in particular. I wonder if they will go with an autoloader as they imply. Would be quite the radical shakeup.

Curious to see what other modifications they go for, as well as considerations for a more drone filled battlefield.