FancyCat

Not particularly relevant, the political value of happier farmers means little to Democrats largely. Certainly not enough to outweigh the consumer pain of higher food pricing and inflation.

Just a small reminder, this is Ukrainian blood, Ukrainian land, Ukrainian water, Ukrainian food, Ukrainian people who are arguably at most risk from nuclear escalation in Ukraine, and not even Russian civilians need be concerned about Ukraine in terms of death or risk of life, and I definitely think there are major rungs of escalation that may result in damage only occurring in Ukraine, nuclear included. There is a lot that the West can do, that precludes it from troops on the ground, or airstrikes or whatnot, certainly the dam destruction seemed to have barely caught a blip in the West, a lot more pressure should be brought to bare on ZNPP incidents occurring, including more neutral personnel, more involvement by neutral states, definitely western pressure on Russia needs to include more international neutral sorta pushing for ZNPP to be monitored, the dam had to my knowledge, no direct repercussions on Russia, in terms of sanctions, equipment to Ukraine, or some semblance of urgency. There is definitely a downside to the West retaining the right of first reply in escalation, and that usually is some sort of mass civilian loss of life has to occur in Ukraine before the West gets up and touts aid to it.

True, i believe the Turkish Navy is guarding the civilian ships? Or at least mine sweeping in certain areas?

Sanctions are great…..more weapons to Ukraine would be best. Mind you, it’s hard monitoring the transfer of technology when a lot of it is low cost, mass produced chips. The same reality that allows cheap drones bombing more expensive hardware is the same that drives ease of access for Russia to get components. Give more long range missiles to Ukraine, so it can disrupt production and supply.

Globalized economy. The withdrawal of Russian exports, oil or otherwise, will damage the poorest and weakest economies around the world, causing rising food and energy prices, that will hit the west, both its citizens and thru increasing global instability. Not to mention collapse of the Black Sea Grain initiative, and loss of Ukrainian grain exports worldwide. Russia would undoubtedly stop that if sanctions increase. have statements to back that up?

if I were Ukraine, I would ask for long range missiles and cluster munitions and let them think we compromised by being one or the other. Interesting confidence if the WP is to be believed. there are other considerations to worry about, the destruction of the dam and a weak response by the West, indicates that Russia is gaining terror escalation potential. A incident at the ZNPP would be the same. The utter lack of Russian general public self reflection I think may well mirror a future where Ukraine is bombarded from Russia with little opposition from the Russian people. And sure, while Ukraine can terrorize the Russian population, I think we can all agree that it’s unlikely that Ukraine will advance into Russia, or strike terror into the civilian population. I’ll be honest, I’ve not understood the obsession with losing Manchuria and Korea for Japan, that would cause them to surrender. I mean, they were preparing suicide waves of civilians. What about Manchuria more than the mass bombings of Japanese cities urged them to surrender?

Who said they won? Who said this war is existential for Russia? These are future predicting statements, one I would caution people against believing firmly are decided. A Ukraine where if the front line froze right here is unlikely to get NATO or EU membership, unlikely to get security assurances without a formal peace (which I highly doubt Russia would give if it stopped Ukraine here, mindful of those potential security assurances), it would unlikely to be rebuilt, with a unstable security situation, a dead carcass tied to Europe. Hardly winning. As for unrest in Russia, the population is cowed, the elites are mindful of the system's benefits, the wobbliness of Putin's regime is there, but definitely less than anticipated.

Igor Sushko is useless btw. just posts random bs.

i would warn against rehashing the same arguments over the future of Russia and how to best manage its collapse since its one that goes quite a long number of pages (i kid). but one thing is clear by the current crisis, neither side, for varied reasons, wants to undergo a full scale civil war, or general collapse, which is surely a good thing that both sides understand that despite jockeying for control, both will lose in the event Russia descends into chaos.

Sure, but Prig's pitches are also along the lines, of one, not affecting the war effort, great care to emphasize war against Ukraine would continue, and were aimed at stopping the incompetencies of the MoD to wage war. Feels more like the whole rhetoric was hunting for support based than anything along the lines of pro-peace.

His faction, didn't they get rid of alongside the other Donbas warlords and leaders before 2022? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673346277814198275?s=19 Let's think about the implications that Wagner might have made a alliance with Luka. The man is very savvy, having balanced the EU and Russia without going the way of Ukraine. Say if Wagner didn't get disbanded, but is allowed to exist, and continue activities, it might be better to think Putin has indeed lost some control over it, and maybe therefore Luka has gained some use of them.

Random commentor but I think Grigb might agree, messaging to keep RU Nats from exploding with anger?

Tbf, haven’t we seen criticism of Putin to occur, a controlled mic? In reality, it’s a outlet that conceals the control of the media.

Interesting perspective.

Shoigu and Gerasimov, is it normal for them to not say anything?

Huh. That sounds way more like MoD winning? Prig and Wagner who are disloyal, killed Russian troops, exiled to Belarus, depending on terms, sounds like limited potential for recruitment and obviously, time given to Putin and co to reinforcing Moscow. Then MoD…well I dunno, how much of the MoD gave orders to fight back? We have Putin saying to kill them, I’ve assumed orders were given that the lower ranking disobeyed, but do we know if the MoD ordered resistance? What if the orders never filtered down? a twitter commentor made a decent point, Prig had to stop at the Oka river, do we know in actuality if the bridges were blown? Could he have made the crossing with the bridges blown? Imagine if he got held up, with only 5000? personnel outside Moscow with increasing forces potentially amassing. Sure, if he turned back from Moscow and went to voronezh but not a great look. Sure, fighting into Rostov, Voronezh, he could have held out a long time, but if we wonder about his goals, and understand it’s merely to get some balance of freedom (MoD wanted his arrest), then makes sense he takes this and runs. Walk into Moscow, he’s dead, hold out longer, the chances of an agreement lessen. Stay and fight in Ukraine and join the impending defeat? Huh. Or maybe im missing something?