G.I. Joe

Without wishing to derail the thread with discussion of old Polish TV shows again, I can't help noticing three tankers and a dog in front of the Polish-flagged T-72. Something tells me the homage is deliberate...

There were 4 tankers originally, but I guess that's hard to to with autoloader  The ERA on those Polish T-72s is a new Ukrainian/ Czech addition, I noticed they put it even on the lower front plate below the  upper glacis, which is a bit unusual I think.
And now for something completely different - somebody raised up to a challenge of tracking the various RU ammo dumps explosions. I'm not 100% sure this list is complete, but it's a nice reference anyway:
 
 

Thanks for the tanks!

No Czech Republic?

Well done sir!  I would do much the same in your place.
But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure.
The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. 
For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills. Ukrainians seem cut from much the same cloth: tough, cheerful and adaptive! Not so different from how Americans used to think of themselves (and some still are).
... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point!
Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of  diversified, no-nonsense republics.
...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

I checked out joining the International Legion when it was first was announced but at age 65 and 25 years out of the military, naturally it was a polite 'no'.  Too old, not current or recent military and my medical history was a guaranteed 'no' but I tried.
So I did the next best thing.  I had a $1500 DJI drone.   I sent it to Ukraine as a donation in my stead.  If I can't do my part, at least my drone can.  I wonder at times every time there is a Ukrainian drone video, if it is my bird.  That helps me get through all of this.

I'm starting to think we were wrong to call Putin 'Putler'... we should be calling him 'Putini' instead, remembering how Fascist Italy was able to take Ethiopia and Albania after great effort and losses, and had to be bailed out by Nazi Germany in Greece and North Africa.

I so get that. My grandfather was a partisan in WW2 and part of Prague Uprising. I am now trying to become part of our Active Reserves - turns out I need to get somewhat fitter first  
Before this all happened, I thought this is only for "weirdo nationalist people". It is incredible how easily a world turn upside down.
 
EDIT: I am sure this is something a lot of people share. At the same time, we're the lucky ones who can chose whether to join instead of having to.

Huba, you have my profound and heartfelt respect.   Seriously....respect.

All right guys, this is a post where I spill my guts in quite an emotional manner, please move along if your're not up for it.
I'll start with stating that I'm really fond of this community that I accidentally found thanks to @Der Zeitgeist. While we differ in perception of some minutiae of the events unraveling in front of us, we all seem to share the same view on whats right and moral in this context. And that is really a lot, more that I could expect from most of my average 'real', 'physical' acquaintances.
For my whole life, since I was an 8 years old kid listening to my grandpa's war tales, I was deeply interested in all things military related. It is easy to get a young boy interested  in this kind of stuff - the power, the agency, the feeling of purpose this provides is unmatched by anything else in the world. Of course  when you're still an adolescent, your understanding of what war/ armed conflict means cannot be deep enough. As I was entering my adulthood, even studying military history academically, I grew to hate the very notion of armed conflict and violence. I guess getting the real grasp of what war means to a regular person was too much to me at this point. I retained my interest, but didn't really pursue it apart from theoretical knowledge. Especially, I dodged the last years of draft i Poland - neither me, nor Polish civil society in general was really ready for it in early 2000's. I was living my life happily since then, like if "The End of History" was and undisputed fact of life.
And it really changed with the start of war in Ukraine. I could easily picture myself in the position of average Kyiv or Kharkiv citizen, a guy in his late 30s, with a reasonable career in IT, concentrated on making a living for his wife and young kids, who is suddenly confronted with the need to physically fight for all that is important for him. 
Of course, in this great community we mostly  concentrate of relatively coldly analysing what is going on, trying to get a grasp of events the way a historian narrates the Battle of Kursk - it is of course THE WAY to practically understand the events and be able to draw conclusions. That's how a commander should look at it, putting his feeling aside. This however isn't the only way to talk about war, especially it isn't the only "right" way to do so. 
On a personal or local society level, what this war is is the fight between right and wrong, between liberty and slavery, between good and evil. Of course, if you are a mature individual, you understand that the good and bad are very relative terms, and it's best to avoid such violent situations at all. Yet, it if comes to the conflict like this, for me the only true way to talk about the people on the very front line, in the trenches facing The Enemy, is poetry and epic prose. The cold analysis is of course important to practical understanding of the situation, yet it doesn't do justice to a person giving his or her life for a greater cause. Having said that, I run at a few videos kept very much in the spirit I outlined here:
A music video to Sabaton's 40:1 song, really fitting the evens of the first few weeks of war. We might've forget it already, but the first days were about the grassroots citizen resistance that in many cases stopped the orcs. Videos from February and March are really reminding of what it is all about:
Here's an Azov oath from 2015, it's as powerful as it gets:
And a subtitled Ukrainian anthem:
There's a conclusion to this rant - today I sent a letter to my local Territorial Defense brigade. They are overflowing with volunteers at the moment, but I'll should be able to join in the winter, early next year at the latest.
It's OK, I'll have the time to get used to morning jogs I guess.

Been out there twice now, as a civilian aid worker, different this last time, aid convoy was shelled, no one hurt, but the signs that the Russians are shelling villages etc for fun very obvious, more widespread firing. Watched a massive firefight  (from safety of a cellar) lots of night time artillery. Things more tense. Last time  I am going, as my missus says at 64 I am to old, hey in my head I'm still a 21 year old soldier. Sadly i see peace has more chance of platting fog than stopping this war at the moment.
 

The bolded part is one that I don't completely agree with, at least as far as future prospects go. While NATO artillery is increasingly important, and will be doing most of the heavy lifting, the soviet types are there to stay, and I expect their mean usage to increase in the future from the low point we're seeing now.
What I mean is that ammo production in the former Warsaw Pact countries is being restarted, and there will be steady stream of ammunition available. There was talk about production lines being restarted in Bulgaria and Romania not long ago. Mesko, main Polish arty ammo manufacturer (whose offer includes basically everything UA uses save for heavy MLRS and Giatsint/ Msta ammo) signed a contract with UA on Eurosatory. Details are unknown but rumors have it they are working at full capacity lately. And I'm sure the same goes for Czech and Slovak manufacturers too. And then there's Finland...
As for tube availability, at least in SPG department there's a lot of equipment available in WarPac countries. Nothing was delivered lately cause of the lack of ammo, but if the tubes themselves were to become the limiting factor, it can be alleviated easily.
 

Interesting thing about game changers is that they tend to be the last piece of a puzzle as opposed to wonder-weapons on their own.  HIMARs  may fit this not solely because of the qualities of the system but because they are the last piece - delivery.  I suspect the UA can already find and fix high value targets in depth , supported by western ISR and their own.  They are only missing an ability to hit them - air power picture we discussed earlier.  Two systems can take the boom the last 1000m, very long range indirect fires (e.g. HIMARs) and self-loitering munitions.  HIMARs are only as good as that C4ISR system that generates targeting, but we know the UA system is pretty damned good.

I don't think it is exactly the same angle... may be wrong though... If, for instance, the images are taken from a video and the rotor frequency happens to be the same as or close to the fps of the video (or a multiple or something) that could happen.

UKR Su-24M under cover of Su-27 fly toward frontline

Bravo to Slovakia, they have according to wiki, 9 to 11 MiG-29s, while not all will probably be sent, anything to replace losses is great. Apparently for security reasons from both Ukraine and Slovakia, elaboration will not be provided.
 

Reference the 'stans, somebody else was playing in that space recently ...
READOUT: U.S. CENTCOM Commander meets with Tajikistan President, Defense Minister, and Chief of General Staff, June 17th, 2022 > U.S. Central Command > Statements View
I wouldn't make too much of the Taliban being around the corner - they have plenty of their own problems to deal with right now.  With their "Pashtunization" policies, all they are doing is alienating the non-Pashtuns in their support base.  These non-Pashtuns would be the vehicle by which the Taliban would stir up trouble on its northern borders so the capability is just not there. 
In terms of intent, deeds speak louder than words.  Both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are being courted by the Taliban for trade, in fact there is an Afghan trade mission in the latter now. 
The outlier is Tajikistan with which the Taliban has a cool relationship because of a number of reasons.  Tajik fears over one of its 'troubled' regions Gorno-Badakhshan which sits on the Afghan border.  Massoud's National Resistance Front, although not overtly encouraged by Tajikistan, are using the country as a safe haven.  Tajik President Rahmon likes to play the defender of the Tajiks card to whip up domestic support as well as spout ludicrous claims for the number of Islamic militants in Afghanistan's north east to get security assistance from China, Russia and the CSTO.  In reality, Rahmon is faced with a tricky balancing act which does not involve actually stoking up tension and this is shared by the bearded folks here in Kabul.
Russian weakness as a result of its 'special military operation' certainly has changed the dynamics in its relationship with the 'stans as it is clear that Russia is no longer the 'go-to' security backstop that Russia heavily promoted itself as in the aftermath of Kabul's collapse last year.  It is certainly true that all three of Afghanistan's northern neighbours have security concerns about the regime here in Kabul but current reporting does not support the assertion that hordes of Taliban-sponsored jihadists are going to swarm northwards.  For a start, they're not in Afghanistan in those sorts of numbers, the latest UN estimate puts the number at about 9,700 of which a large proportion are Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan and therefore not interested in going 'oop north.'
Rather than worry about expanded Chinese influence or a mythical Taliban-sponsored Islamic wave, the US should see this as an opportunity to ratchet up pressure on Russia by parking in its backyard and to reestablish an intelligence collection footprint in Central Asia.  By the looks of the June 17 CENTCOM visit, this is an opportunity that is being pursued.

Interesting news about UA Air Force. Perhaps they intensified their sorties when Russians rushed out of their own AA cover in Lysychansk salient.
 
For now it's still a dream- populace is passive, afraid of any hostilities and lack arms. Ukraine War actually plays into Lukashenka's field as "protector" against threats both external and internal. People may even hate him from bottom of their hearts, but in current situation he is somebody who is realistically viewed as bulwark against chaos, both from Russian or internal side. Luka is a bastard, but known bastard...
Of course when Ukraine will defeat Russia in this war and if RUS importance will crumble...situation can change very fast. If (in a lucky scenario) power at Kremlin would truly desintegrate, then such course of events is actually quite expected.
 

That was the dumbest idea ever, or at least a contender for the prize. It exist only because of a quirk in the U.S. electoral system that I won't bombard the thread with. And yes it should be ended immediately.

If you think RU cannot get even crazier:
In Ekaterinburg somebody glued Putin portrait to a gas distributor surrounded by a fence as an obvious reference.

Big problem for local authorities. They could not leave it like this because it is Putin portrait. But they also could not scratch it off because it is Putin portrait. 
However, they found a solution. They covered it with cloth! 
 

Hopefully not a single launcher like in "HIMARS systems" 🙄
Here's a link to official DoD announcement, it mentions that it was provided with cooperation with Norway, which tells us exactly nothing given that NO is the producer. 
It's either from Norwegian stocks, or it was produced for a third country but diverted to UA. Lithuania was to receive 2 more batteries this year, so it might be those - if that's the case, one battery consists of 4 launchers and 2 radars, plus all the equipment, and it's of the newest NASAMS 3 type, compatible with AMRAAM-ER. That would be the most optimistic option
More probably it is from Norwegian army stock though, in this case it will be an older type, but still extremely powerful. AFAIK Norway operates a number of mobile launchers on HMMWV ( like the old SLAMRAAM project) which would be absolutely great for future UA offensives.
This system it is compatible with regular AMRAAMs, which are really plentiful in USAF service. What is also great is that Ukraine already operates a number of AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radars, so training should be way easier, as the launchers will just plug in into already existing network.
Overall it's great news, we'll about to see a lot of downed RU aircraft
Edit: of course, there's already a Twitter thread about all I just written:
 
 

I don't think there was an organized move to provide 4x4s to UA Army, but I remember people from the Baltics buying en masse all SUVs from the market and driving them to the border in the initial parts of the war. Guessing from various videos, 4x4 pick-up trucks are quite ubiquitous.
US announced the new arms package, which includes "2 NASAMS systems" I assume it's 2 batteries, with associated radars and C4. It will be very interesting to see what is the source of those systems, what launchers and what missiles are provided.
Also, RU bombed Snake Island today, probably to destroy the equipment left there:
 

I had the thought the other day, and this merely reinforces it: There's an opportunity to significantly help Ukraine and improve their overall maneuverability by merely providing large volumes of cheap SUVs.
They don't need heavily armoured gun platforms to carry infantry around. They need something that can handle potholes at 80mph.
The military alternative is a lightly armoured modern (faster) equivalent of a snatch Land Rover. It's not going to be front line capable, it's not going to be resistant to IEDs but it'll get troops in and out of front line areas with protection from shrapnel and long range small arms.
If NATO wants to help Ukraine, buy six months production of Toyota 4x4s and rivet 1/4" steel plate to the wings and doors.

Short piece by Phillips O'Brien
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/rethinking-russia-ukraine-international-political-power-military-strength/661452
Russian strength has shown itself to be so overrated that it gives us an opportunity to rethink what makes a power “great” .... A military is only as strong as the society, economy, and political structure that assembled it. In this case, Russia was nowhere near a great power....
Its economy is about the tenth largest in the world, comparable to Brazil’s, but even that masks how remarkably unproductive it is, basing most of its wealth on extracting and selling natural resources, rather than on producing anything advanced. When it comes to technology and innovation, Russia would hardly rank in the top 50 most important countries in the world.