G.I. Joe

It takes less than 4 weeks for a ship from the East Coast to arrive in Gdansk. If US makes the decision to deliver Bradleys to UA, travel time from across the pond won't have a decisive impact on the overall speed of the events. 
What would be interesting is to see how and where the training on the type would be done. I'd think that Bradley would greatly benefit from a much longer training program when compared to the APCs delivered so far ( like the Sisu-180 or VAB). US announced that it will be giving UA troops training in combined arms - as I was speculating previously, equipping these guys with NATO standard equipment would be the best way to supply it to the UA and leverage the training period to the maximum.
There was talk in Poland about acquiring an intermediate IFV, until we are able to put the Borsuk and hypothetical heavy IFV into production. There's no official info on this, but rumors are that we've already sent around 400 BMP-1s to the Ukraine, but it still leaves about 800 in the active service. Sending another several hundred, while re-equipping our mech with M2s would make a lot of sense I guess, allowing instant deliveries of vehicles that UA army is familiar with. It shouldn't replace the direct deliveries of M2 to the UA, but would allow additional deliveries of equipment that they know how to operate already, and as training of PL units progresses, would allow for creation of additional support base for the type.
Also, I'm sure that the remaining ~200 PT-91s will be sent to UA rather soon, the several that were sent up to this point were not participating in the fight up to this point. BTW, I was at my brother-in-law's place today, a house on the very edge of Biedrusko training ground - you could hear the M1s roaming in the forests through the whole evening, our tankers are re-training on them like crazy.

Facts. But one thing the US military is good at is getting lots of stuff moved long distances very quickly. If they pull the trigger on the Bradley deal, most of the logistical support could be moved in relatively quickly. The various command and maintenance facilities are already there. And there are are US division support facilities forward in Poland as well.  

Combatintman already answered this in detail, all I can add is that at higher levels - strategic and political - at some point Afghanistan stopped being about Afghanistan.  Military services competed for shine, SOCOM came out on top with Army and then Air Force close seconds - the poor Navy was stuck in the Gulf of Oman intercepting “Taliban ships”.  Political agendas became about scoring points back home, or denying them to the other political team - seriously, get me drunk sometime and ask about “girls schools”.  And this was not just the US by any stretch, every western nation got in on this drug deal in some shape or another, hell Canada only went to Afghanistan because we skipped out on the Iraq cheque.
So in the end we dumped money into a corrupt system, took pictures of blue thumbs and risk managed the whole mess until the last guy finally pulled the trigger on the whole house of cards.  We were not in it to really fix Afghanistan because that was impossible…why?  Because Afghanistan did not want to fix itself - well that is half true, their “fix” was the Taliban but the TB was on the wrong side.
Example of how futile it was, Combatintman refers to land reforms, Afghanistan is living under roughly 13th century feudalism (and I am probably being generous).  No Afghan farmer actually owns the land they are on, everyone was a sharecropper or in some form of serfdom to landowners who stretched back for generations.  It is a crazy idea but people who do not own the land they live on are less likely to fight for it, we found that out the hard way.  So if you want to change Afghanistan you have to completely reform land ownership - we are talking 1917 Russia level of reform.  You then change the deep economic bedrock of the nation, and the cultural will follow.  Of course no one, and I mean no one was interested in taking this on.  So in reality we simply moved the deck chairs around until the TB came back, but we looked damned good doing it.  We also kept AQ bouncing and hands clapping, so there was that.
As to Ukraine, very different environment and nation - with the possible exception of the Donbas and Crimea.  Ukraine will come out of this war with a stronger central identity - they were the nation to take on a nuclear power in a stand up conventional fight  and won, only North Korea and Vietnam can really claim that one (I am probably forgetting someone…Algeria?). However, the west is likely going to back the winner of this war as opposed to totally shutting them out so the post-war trajectory for Ukraine will be very different…so long as they stay the course and remain the good guys.
In reality Ukraine has already won this war.  The shooting could stop right now and we re-draw the international borders by nightfall. Ukraine is in NATO and under article 5 protection by morning, the one deterrence Putin still seems spooked by.  No one will be happy but the money will start pouring in for reconstruction and Ukraine will likely be the safest country on the planet by the weekend.  Not optimal nor what anyone wants as an end-state but that is the current worst case - short of nuclear apocalypse but again, one second to midnight at a time.  Ukraine has corruption but if it can keep its democratic processes clean they will be golden because we will back the little guy who won and defended the system.  In Afghanistan we were trying to resurrect a dead patient, in Ukraine we are not nation building, there is already a strong one there, we are alliance building and friend-shoring.  For the time being Ukraine is still about Ukraine. Just as long as we do not lose the bubble.

The aim of the mission was to set the conditions for long term democracy and stability, not colonization.  Aggravating internal divisions violently really was not a viable option. We did this in the initial invasion with the Northern Alliance but when the mission shifted to nation building there was a different playbook.
That, and the reality that Afghans could agree in large groups that we were the problem because we sided with another group in power who clearly did not have the best interest of all Afghans in mind, and instead stole everything they could and bolted as soon as western support was pulled.
In simpler terms, we lost in Afghanistan because we supported the losing side with an unworkable overall strategy. Getting Afghans to kill each other better would have been politically untenable back home and likely would have made things worse on the ground.
As it relates to this war, although very different circumstances the spectre of previous debacles hangs in the mind of the entire western world.  Ukraine needs to be nearly spotless in it prosecution of this war, which is frankly almost impossible in any war, or it risks being painted with the “propping up another corrupt losing side” brush.
Zelensky has played this brilliantly so far by shifting and sustaining a narrative of “front edge of freedom”. Ukraine is demonstrating that it is a modern western nation at heart in how it fights, from the treatment of PoWs to targeting.  “One of us, fighting for democratic survival.” is about as good as it gets for a strategic narrative and one we never saw in Afghanistan.

I know, stupid to ask but wtf is a defense minister doing with a PMC?
 
Shoigu deploys his Private Military Company, which competes with Wagner Group, to war against Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Finland driving Europe wide initiative to get Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Idea is if everyone gives even 5-10% of their leo2 to Ukraine it would add up to hundreds. With some swapping you could also narrow it to only 1-2 variants of leo2.
 

FINALLY

More new tech for HIMARS coming to Ukraine:
The U.S. Army Contracting Command (ACC) at the Aberdeen Proving Ground last month put out a 'Sources Sought' notification for possible future delivery of International Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (IFATDS) to Ukraine, as well as Taiwan and Latvia. The international export version of the Army's Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS), IFATDS would increase HIMARS lethality by providing a secure communications system stitching together incoming information from various sources across the battlefield for a better common operating picture and greater situational awareness. This would give HIMARS operators a much better idea of where to fire the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) munitions that have already been used to devastating effect by Ukraine   https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-pentagon-may-give-kyiv-advanced-himars-fire-control-system
 

Interesting bits of news from the last day or so that I am seeing here:
UKR shooting down ~75% of incoming missiles.  So Putin has to send 100 to get 25 hits, and he doesn't know which of the ones will actually hit so he has choice of flooding one area or spreading it out but only hitting a few of those many targets.  Meanwhile this causes him to burn through these missiles at a prodigious rate.  Hopefully the burn rate will make these attacks much less frequent.  Another declining asset for Putler.
Bakhmut seems like it's in no danger of falling, in fact seems the attacks are getting weaker and weaker.
And Kremmina on the brink. 
Meanwhile, the Finns are pushing for NATO to start working w UKR to build up leo2 capabilities.  HECK YES!  Might not matter until next June or July but even if war over those would be quite a good deterent to future agression.
Good news.

Haiduk, my friend. Your country is in a dark hour. But this is the beginning of the end, my friend, a desperate ploy by those playing out the last of their cards. It was Vasily Grossman, a Ukrianian who said 
“In the cruel and terrible time in which our generation has been condemned to live on this earth, we must never make peace with evil. We must never become indifferent to others or undemanding of ourselves.”
Vasily Grossman

couldn't that be said for probably every war ever fought?  There were indigenous people who fought alongside the US calvary.  Every colonial army ever formed usually had a portion made up of the indigenous population.  It is more a statement of humans than it is about any regional behavior in that part of the world.

The one item that might throw a wrench in China's relationships to any former Russian territories is their treatment of the Uighur people.  The "stan's" have every reason to be highly suspicious of and likely antagonistic. For the most part the present governments acquiesce for the money, however continued attacks by China on a Muslim minority could easily lead them to become the new great satan.  China's treatment of these people has been extreme, even to the level of competing with Russian barbarity.

Thank you ) Orthodox and Greco-catholics celebrate in Ukraine on 6-7th Jan, because we have difference between secular (Gregorian) and church (Julian) calendars. So, despite all churches celebrate on 25th Dec in secular world we have two weeks of difference. But in Ukraine since past year a discussion has started about western choice demands from churches switching to Gregorian calendar and 25th together with 7th was claimed as an official holiday. This year brought huge support for Christmss on 25th, mostly because "do not have any common with Russia", so Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Greco-Catholic churches made a statement they will establish a workgroup in order to develop proper decisions up to 2025 and prepare own people. Alas, many even pro-Ukrainian believers, especially in western Ukraine roughly stick for 7th Jan, because "this is our tradition", though they just don't want understand why this difference appeared and that their church really celebrates Christmass on 25th, but according to "old style". 
Religion in Ukraine is a part of political life, because more than 60% relate themselves to Christians, so it is matter what words theese people can hear from priests. 
We have two Orthodox churches - pro-Russian UOC MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy) and pro-Ukrainian OCU (Orthodox Church of Ukraine), recognized by Konstantinopol Patriarch in 2018, which caused effect of exploded bomb in Russia, because church, subordinated to Moscow was one of element of influence of Russia on Ukraine and keeping it in own orbit. UOC MP still have huge influence in Ukraine not only among usual people, but also among politics and officials. Now SBU raiding and their churches and finds there tons of Russian symbolics, anti-Ukrainian, antisemitic and stupid conspiracy books and other materials, issued by Russian church. 
Also we have Greco-Catolic church, combining Orthodox  rite and subordinating to Pope.  Recently it  considered like mostly western ukrainian phenomenon, but in last years it spread own parishes far to the east. Greco-catholic church in western Ukraine in own time has played the same role that Catholic church in Poland, keeping national identity and spirit. 
Also we have Catholic community, most of their believers are in western Ukraine among ethnic Poles, but in last years Catholic community grows and on other territory, especially in Kyiv. My wife,for example is catholic and works in Catholic Institute, so we are celebrating two Christmass with our parents )

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

Once again in the field of human conflict, so much is owed by so many to so few...

Ukrainians cleaning leftovers out of the refrigerator:
 

Christmas miracle: Russian MiG on fire in Belarus (yahoo.com)
 
Thank you Santa!

Great video, AKD, thanks.  These are some very very lucky Russian soldiers, though they might not realize it as they are captured.  While these guys are properly fed and housed and out of danger, a whole bunch of their comrades are gonna be sick, freezing, malnourished and in very close proximity to death.

Once again in the field of human conflict, so much is owed by so many to so few...

Merry Christmas all, and spare a thought for the folks standing dawn watch in a cold trench, right about now.
 
 

for those who can get it, NFL 360 is doing a piece on Ukrainian league football players (US style) who have joined the fight against the Russian invasion.
NFL 360: Kyle Brandt | UKRAINE DOCUMENTARY ANNOUNCEMENT

I'll make this one comment on the topic. (Some of) You US forum members comment on politics in other countries like you are automatically right because you are the grown-ups and the rest of the world are just squabbling children. And yet you can't even discuss something as disgusting as the words of this Carlson guy without being at each other's throats.
And I wish I could blame you for it but we are no better. The thing is, we discussed more than once that the current conflict is a clash of systems. But what good is democracy when we can't actually discuss politics?
*sigh*
Anyway, Merry Christmas, all of you.

TV and internet propagandist/nationalists like beformentioned already absolutelly convinced many Russians they are indeeed fighting NATO itself and these Polish mercenaries. It's hillarious to watch, but long-term consequences for countries in Central Europe can be actually real, with milions of people so much zombified they may find somebody to do terror attacks in the future or at least having carte blanche from their population for more aggressive provocations. Large parts of their society seem to truly believe in this made-up stuff, and for this sole reason we should be on guard. It may not even end with Putin, and bear fruits even decade from now.
 
Btw. thread slightly touching on this topic (i.e. Russian society after war):
 

When I was working with my old employer, we'd do our yearly budget in June/July.  It started slipping.  Talked to my old teammate yesterday.  Their budget this year is still not in.  😝  Seems it isn't just a gov't issue.
As to the US budget, that is because it is such a political football and the only thing that gets them to even get it done is the important folks know that a default would be disastrous for the country.
As to calling Tucker a RINO... well I am not so sure of that.  Citing Reagan as representative of GOP politics doesn't seem relevant anymore.  You are talking 40 years ago. 
Enough though.  Zelensky speaking before a joint session with multiple standing ovations from both sides of the aisle says what needs to be said for US commitment.  The WP article I cited before has an interesting review of the weapons the US has supplied, why and when.   another tidbit from that article.
 

It does explain Poland putting in orders for the strongest land forces in Europe rather neatly.