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Bearstronaut

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  1. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Gkenny in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    Now that we have so much late WW2 equipment, It doesn't seem so impossible that a CM Korean war title could be announced. Definitely has not been beaten to death and with the amount of nations that participated it could have quite the variety!
  2. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    🤣  yep any day now!
  3. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The generous response to this would be 'you are reading too much into the article - that's not what it says'.  In the UK we have a less generous, single-word response that I think is probably more appropriate, though.
     
    Fixed that for you.
     
    You do seem to spend a lot of your time intentionally 'interpreting' what people write in order to fit your 'all is lost' narrative.
    The point of the response you laughed off here was, I think, to ask what Ukraine's plan is?  For the first year or so, Ukraine were in panicky, dear-god-they're-invading-help-please-send-whatever-you-can mode.  Where is Ukraine now?  Two years in, what is Ukraine's strategy for winning this war?  Surely it's not to rely on free equipment sent in by foreign nations?  I mean, I think Ukraine can rely on US/EU providing as much support as they can (given the various other factors at play) but it would be idiotic to rely on that and make no other plans to defend your country, right?  Perhaps if we knew more from Ukraine about what they are trying to do then we could all offer more insightful opinions as to how the US/EU could help.
     
    Your apparent understanding of how Western European people think is frankly stunningly inaccurate.
    To be blunt, people in Western Europe don't give a solitary, flying **** about Russia.  They don't.  No-one talks about Russia, worries about Russia or even less considers Russia's strength when they go to the ballot box.  Ask people in the UK about Russia and they will talk about Salisbury, the World Cup and the ongoing war with Ukraine.  Some of them might remember 2014.  A few more will remember the Kursk tragedy because the Russians turned down British help to rescue the crew.  Beyond that it's probably all Yeltsin and pre-90s stuff.
    What you think seems to be a reflection of Russia's own internal propaganda line -  that the West spends all its time envying and plotting against the mighty Russian people.  It's just bollocks (oh, there we are - the one-word response made it into print after all).
  4. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Zeleban has had far more chances than he should have gotten in my opinion.  When someone openly admires NK, they belong in the outer darkness with the rest of the pro-Russian pushers we have had through here.
    I agree on your last point entirely.  The trick is defining what a Ukrainian MIC looks like.  If we assume they are producing MBTs and IFVs, then we are talking very large factories with complex supply chains that will be vulnerable...so why are we talking MBTs and IFVs?
    If Ukraine needs battlewagons or MRAPs that can still be done.  If they need UAS and ATGMs, a high tech MIC, that definitely can be done.  Small arms and ammo...again very doable.  Wean off western supply lines and Ukraine becomes far more resilient to western political turbulence.  Plan for a long war, because we are likely in one.
    This is going to have to be a gradual shift.  How this all got translated to "The US just declared abandon ship!!!  All is lost and it is all you faults!!!" is beyond me.
  5. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This.
    And this.  Just whose side are you on?
    Oh, wait I know this dance.  You are going to throw around Russian propaganda lines, anti-western sentiments, and general doom and gloom until Steve gets irritated.  Then you will post walls of translated useful stuff to take the heat off...wait a bit, and come back around for another pass.  You realize that is exactly the same Russia "useful idiot" tactic?
    So just to avoid all that for what must be the 5th or 6th time - your position in a nutshell:
    - All is lost.  Ukraine is losing its will to fight and will never get it back.  In fact they are going to gleefully switch sides after this war.
    - Russia is unstoppable and will roll on Poland and the Baltics once they are done with Ukraine.  With Ukrainian Divisions riding at the forefront.  And now you admire them for this...along with NK.
    - The US and West are weak and scared.  Our support is clearly plummeting (and with friends like you...) because we are not hopping too with another $100B by 4 Jan and several divisions of shiny new tanks, that will be turned into scrap metal in a few months anyway...because Ukrainian will etc (gets a little blurry here.)
    I was willing to write off the first few times as to war weariness but you are spending far too much effort and energy right now for someone who is burned out.
    So...whose side are you on exactly? 
  6. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
  7. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, to be extra fair, if you're referring to the Budapest Memorandum, no part of that sentence is accurate.
  8. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
  9. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So all these UA soldiers armed by Russia are just gonna say, well okay you want us to attack Estonia?  Hundreds of thousands of them? Sure. 🤪
    Can you send me some of whatever you are smoking?  I just signed up for this year's subscription of Dave's Picks Grateful dead releases and could use some to go with it.
  10. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
  11. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
  12. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to OBJ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm, I thought most folks here agreed a coup that deposed Putin would end up worse for everyone, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, RoW? Did I misunderstand that the people in Russia that could pull off a coup would be worse than Putin in every way meaningful to everyone not already aligned with Russia?
  13. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Colorado isn't refusing to recognize the election...it is saying that Trump is an insurrectionist by their interpretation of the 14th Amendment so he can't be on their ballot. If he still manages to make it to 270, he still wins. 
    And you hit at a point that would, in times where domestic political hegemony was intact (cribbing Gramsci here), be entirely uncontroversial. Nobody seriously doubts that Trump attempted an insurrection. Nobody seriously doubts that he tried to overthrow a duly held election. Nobody seriously doubts that Trump intends to subvert constitutional government if he gets elected again. 
    I don't think Colorado's move was the best thing to do politically...but it's not exactly a stretch either.  
  14. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from croaker69 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I guess Heinlein was pretty prescient when he came up with the mobile infantry concept.
  15. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is because they do not work anymore.
    Armor cannot support infantry as it get detected too far out.  This is why we keep seeing them pushed forward in 1 & 2s to snipe, and then blown up.  So basically more infantry mobile guns.
    Infantry cannot protect armor.  ATGM are reaching out to 3-5kms.  UAS are everywhere.  And guns when linked to UAS/ISR are dropping the sky on them before they even reach direct fire distance.  Infantry cannot sweep the ranges needed to protect that armor...and they cannot fly.
    I might have bought the RA "forgetting this" (which would be odd as they demonstrated it in 2014).  But the UA has been feeding troops into western training for nearly 2 years.  And officers into our war colleges for nearly a decade.  The UA simply did not "forget".  In fact they tried it last May-Jun and it failed.
    The combined arms team is broken and no one knows how to fix it.
  16. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We all know how long "soon" can take in your world, Steve. 😀
  17. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to A Canadian Cat in Any news on the upcoming module?   
    This thread seems to be evidence that some do.
  18. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to White2Golf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Dropping from hyperspace/lurking to affirm this statement here.   Did a few joint patrols in Bosnia, early 2000's with some VDV guys riding BTR's.  Oy Vey.   They went back to our base for chow once.  More than one of their dudes killed the clearing barrel coming in.  Woof.  
  19. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apparently we never learn. Before the ANA it was the ARVN. Before the ARVN it was the ROKA. Although we stayed in South Korea long enough that the ROKs were able to develop their own successful military industrial complex and would likely be successful in a war (at extremely high cost) against the DPRK without us. That would not have been true had we dipped out of the ROK back in say, the 1970s.
  20. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from MHW in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Umm, what? What about the early Muslim Caliphates? The Mongols? The Ottoman Empire? The Spanish Empire? All projected more power than the insular Han Chinese and the Mongols even conquered China.
  21. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Umm, what? What about the early Muslim Caliphates? The Mongols? The Ottoman Empire? The Spanish Empire? All projected more power than the insular Han Chinese and the Mongols even conquered China.
  22. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Umm, what? What about the early Muslim Caliphates? The Mongols? The Ottoman Empire? The Spanish Empire? All projected more power than the insular Han Chinese and the Mongols even conquered China.
  23. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Umm, what? What about the early Muslim Caliphates? The Mongols? The Ottoman Empire? The Spanish Empire? All projected more power than the insular Han Chinese and the Mongols even conquered China.
  24. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's been plenty of examples of a weak and brittle nation on the brink of collapse over the past half century. Afghanistan and South Vietnam being the most obvious examples. Ukraine reminds me more of South Korea than either of those countries. Definitely not perfect to be sure but with a strong sense of national will and the determination to fight for their country. Hell, Ukraine is even better than the ROK was. People are seriously talking about Zelensky losing an election during an existential war while absolutely nobody would have thought that about Rhee Syngman or Park Chung-hee. 
  25. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's been plenty of examples of a weak and brittle nation on the brink of collapse over the past half century. Afghanistan and South Vietnam being the most obvious examples. Ukraine reminds me more of South Korea than either of those countries. Definitely not perfect to be sure but with a strong sense of national will and the determination to fight for their country. Hell, Ukraine is even better than the ROK was. People are seriously talking about Zelensky losing an election during an existential war while absolutely nobody would have thought that about Rhee Syngman or Park Chung-hee. 
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