Bearstronaut

Pretty enlightening thread. I share the Ranger trainers shock that these Ukrainian soldiers don't use maps and roll around using cellphones and Chinese-made tablets. If they are able to do so then perhaps Russian EW isn't as good as expected. Still, they should be able to navigate using a map so they can get around when their high tech GNSS gear is jammed. Looks like that training was useful at least. 
Also, I got a pretty big laugh at this guy complaining about showing up at 0600 for a 0900 range time. Classic US Army right there.

Pretty enlightening thread. I share the Ranger trainers shock that these Ukrainian soldiers don't use maps and roll around using cellphones and Chinese-made tablets. If they are able to do so then perhaps Russian EW isn't as good as expected. Still, they should be able to navigate using a map so they can get around when their high tech GNSS gear is jammed. Looks like that training was useful at least. 
Also, I got a pretty big laugh at this guy complaining about showing up at 0600 for a 0900 range time. Classic US Army right there.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

So how are we defining “gains”?  If it is by ground re-taken, yes, very limited.  If they are measured by strain and erosion of the RA I suspect they are doing a lot better.  The question is “will the erosion be enough to force collapse?”  And right now we do not know.  In fact we do not even know if offensive warfare still works as we knew it.  We could be at stalemate or this could just be a how offensive warfare works now.  
If it is stalemate, well ok then the conflict will likely freeze and have to end by other means.  Everyone will point fingers as to why the thing has gone stalemate but the most likely reason will be that we have entered into an era of Defensive Primacy - not the first time this has happened.

Fair point.  It was more a shot at LLF who I get the sense is used to being the smartest guy in the room…until he got into this one.  I know I am not either because I can barely keep track of what is happening let alone why.  I mean we are about 90 seconds to midnight in a good day, Russians are using tanks as VBIEDs and our Prime Minister just tweeted Taylor Swift FFS.

Poland / Romania won't ignore radioactive clouds creeping into their territories. That's the difference, compared to the dam.

He never should have had any credibility post-2004 after he strongly and repeatedly argued that the US could invade and secure Iraq with a force of 50,000.

He never should have had any credibility post-2004 after he strongly and repeatedly argued that the US could invade and secure Iraq with a force of 50,000.

Helluva lot of credibility to blow up on this war, but he found a way.  His wiki page read like "a next gen maverick too real for mainstream military service", followed by his whole government work.  Turns out the guy is so extreme a pro-Russian mouthpiece that most in intelligence would likely suspect he has been compromised.  He has no credibility left in my industry, at least not in the "real world" circles.

While I generally agree, the nature of this fight is existential. A lot of things have to be put to the side unfortunately.  Reality trumps what may have been desired. I am sure the UA would prefer not to mine their own country, but considering how many Russia is dumping, that earlier figure of them clearing 10x as many as they laid is likely going to be a low ball for the reality facing Ukraine. 

Sushko is a fabricator. Avoid. 

It's wild because pretty much everybody is saying "maybe this isn't such a good idea" and AI developers are like "Ima do it anyways."

It's wild because pretty much everybody is saying "maybe this isn't such a good idea" and AI developers are like "Ima do it anyways."

We still got 6 downed helicopters and one very valuable coms aircraft.

I honestly don’t think this detente can last for very long. Prigozhin has to know he’s a dead man sooner or later.

I honestly don’t think this detente can last for very long. Prigozhin has to know he’s a dead man sooner or later.

Surrender now so you don't have to pick sides. In Ukrainian custody really is the safest place to be.

Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.

Which of course is what they would say either way....

Think this Sacks character was discussed here before. Well if anyone wanted to know how Elon really felt about this war, here it is.
I may buy an electric vehicle one day, but it will definitely not be a Tesla.

He's not the only one who would be going. I'm a NCO in a EUCOM-aligned Reserve unit. Additionally, my little sister is a Reserve officer currently deployed in Poland.

Friends,
First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion.
Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms.
There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. 
Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we?
Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians.
To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later?
Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month.
Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. 
All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. 
Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”.
Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts?
Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). 
As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD?
Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other.
Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this.
Teufel

Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.

Last 36 hours, people seem to be trying to get ahead of the problem, and actually warn Putin off. It is worth pointing out that this is a non-binding opinion from Congress, not an actual law that Biden would have to adhere too. Unless Biden signs something it is all just talk.
Zelensky seems to have a credible intercept of Russian communications or similar. He has been very vocal about last night and today. Other countries are acting like they believe him
 
 

Tulsi Gabbard
EDIT: I mean Lt. Col Tulsi Gabbard, USAR