Vic4
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Posts posted by Vic4
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@Battlefront.com@The_Capt et al,
Barring any imminent cease fire or diplomatic resolution do you anticipate the UA will pursue counter offensives to regain territory in the DR/LR?
Also, do you think the UA will expand its’ scope to mount any offensives into Crimea?
Given the “annexation” would Russia perceive this as an attack on Russian soil and therefore respond with full mobilization and/or other escalatory measures?
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25 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:
Likelihood of this are so close to nil that it's hardly worth thinking about it at this point.
I'm not certain that is the case but ofc hope you are right.
25 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:-Domestically not viable. He is making the case that Ukraine is a part of Russia and it's people want to be united with Russia and saved from Nazis. To start irradiating ANY parts of Ukraine would be indigestible to the Russian people, on all levels--from the leadership and political class all the way down to the "peasants". I don't think there are any target concentrations that are away from cities and populated areas that Putin could make the case it was purely a military target.
As has been noted here from many angles, unfortunately I don't think it's viable to rely on the "digestion" of the majority of Russian people to inhibit any atrocity.
25 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:Risks MASSIVE escalation with NATO.
I don't think so because of exactly what Steve notes below. Putin seems absolutely willing to back up his "bluffs".
18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:Don't bluff if you're not willing to be called on it. That's the lesson here.
Steve
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@keas66Yes exactly, and he will "acquire" Ukraine as per his ultimate intent.
5 minutes ago, keas66 said:I think if Putin was to really go bat**** crazy and "restrict" his use of WMD to just the current Ukrainian Territories ....I really don't think the West would respond in any meaningful manner beyond what they are doing already . If they did we would be where no one seems to want to go - WW3 .
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Please forgive this train of thought but, I don’t understand why no one thinks that Putin isn’t simply going to start lobbing tac nukes into Ukraine.
He has been utterly humiliated, his conventional assets have been decimated, and his economy and trade relations have been shattered for at least as long as he remains in power. He has yet to show anything resembling restraint, particularly in regards to any of the “red lines” that the west has drawn for him and he has made it clear that there is no negotiation or concession beyond achieving the “operational goals” of his “special military operation”.
He doesn’t care about civilian lives & their suffering, or existing infrastructure; he only cares about domination of Ukraine and bringing them back into the Russian fold; evidently at any cost. For someone so clearly psychopathic and egomaniacal, why wouldn’t he escalate and use the remaining raw power he has available to him at this point?
So long as he doesn’t directly attack NATO, I don’t believe anything he does in Ukraine (however vile) will get any response beyond what is already being done….
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Copy. Truly hope that incompetence, corruption and insubordination extends to their nuclear division...
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Haha copy that... But seriously, would totally appreciate if you took a swing at the question; can they keep this going without crazy time escalation?
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@Battlefront.com@KinophileSorry, the T14 was a sarcastic citation. Really just asking if Russia's military industry is mobilized; producing whatever "battle ready" hardware and corresponding personnel as fast as bloody possible and if they are committed to a "conventional" approach rather than a chicken little meets dr. evil doomsday solution...
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Given the extreme material losses that the Russians are sustaining, do we know if the Russian military industry is fully mobilized (i.e. cranking out T-14’s, BMP-3’s and training personnel etc. as fast as possible)? Do they have the material resources to keep producing sophisticated equipment or were they stockpiled previously in anticipation of the sanctions? How long can/will Russia sustain a conventional conflict with significant losses until only the “rabid animal in a cage with nukes” option is all that is left…?
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12 hours ago, Hister said:
Julia made a very good insight into why Ukraine happened and what might happen next. I worked with her some years ago - can only say the best things about her.
I wanted to post this yesterday but it seems it didn't go through. Posting (again) because it is a really good/concise piece on why Ukraine happened.
@Hister, thank you. That's an incredible interview.
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No disrespect intended. Honestly. Dropped
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5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right:
1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson - Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2 style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between.
2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances.
3. For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev.
4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states).
5. The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch).
6. The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv.
7. Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance.
And in 2023, a Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk.
Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war.
8. In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money. Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand.
9. Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'.
10. In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders. Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus).
TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding.
My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.
Attempting to tread very lightly here:
@LongLeftFlank: Another item for your list.
- A wildcard that I feel is being relatively ignored but is unfortunately entirely plausible is that a “Russo-Sympathetic” American administration could be in the picture in 2025. If Putin is able to drag this out in some fashion for that long (war crimes and sanctions be damned), Ukraine, NATO, and the general sense of unity we currently have could be compromised and altered significantly by a change in US policy.
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Could you please elaborate (in an unbiased manner) what drives the ethnic/racial animus between Russia and Ukraine? If I understand correctly, you refer to “ethnic cleansing” as being a prominent motivating factor for the typical Russian soldier, regardless of the overarching geopolitical dynamics between Russia and “the West”. In short, from your perspective, what is the origin of all this hatred and to what end does it serve?
Lastly you speak of the disintegration of Russia as being necessary. What does that look like in terms of re-divided nation states; governments etc.? ...Disclaimer…I don’t want to derail the thread or inflame emotions so if a dry, calculated answer is not possible then please refrain. Thanks
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1 hour ago, kraze said:
This answers the question if copium cages stop anything
I'm curious about this as well. Did they actually send out an army of novice welders with 2x2 tube steel without even testing one first?
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8 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:
Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist?
Freely admit I'm no expert but he's definitely managed to galvanize much of the population to aspire for democratic ideals. Imho, certainly better than anyone in Putin's immediate sphere that could just as easily or forcefully take control (i.e. Medvedev etc.)
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It's unfortunate that Navalny chose to return to Russia. Is there any information that he is still alive? ..Would be a miracle if so...
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In light of @BeondTheGrave's post for considering “wider” perspectives; the link below is to an opinion piece that skews to the Russian perspective (of which I’m not a subscriber). However, the essential premise is that U.S. policy and their influence of expanding NATO into the Russian sphere since the fall of the USSR is ultimately to blame for this conflict. I don’t have the depth of knowledge to confirm or deny their allegations but there are some points made about the development and evolution of NATO after the fall of the USSR and how it informs Putin’s worldview. Curious if anyone here has read it or considered its’ stance and what your thoughts are regarding.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine
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12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I can understand the concern, all the DEFCON stuff is also troubling. When one elevates that equation - nuclear war - Clausewitz no longer applies, one cannot pursue a policy of self-destruction rationally. So the real question is one of "is Russia a suicide state?" And despite the obvious issues, I have to go with a firm "no" on this one.
@The_Capt But in this case we relying on insubordination of Putin's underlings to not carry out such an order, correct? Really not trying to chicken little here fwiw..
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With the invasion being such an incomparably catastrophic f-up in every conceivable way for Putin and his regime; is there really any way to avoid nuclear brinkmanship at this point and how to proceed in that event? ...As Steve said very far up thread, there's nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal (much less rabid), and now they are even threatening "consequences" for any nation that provides lethal arms/means to Ukraine which most NATO countries have already committed to very publicly. This is a contemporary Cuban Missile crisis but perhaps exponentially worse because it truly is involving the whole world.
...long time (decade+) lurker, own all the games etc. Thanks BF for keeping this thread open. Appreciate any response or thoughts regarding the above question.
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11 hours ago, womble said:
Though maybe this whole Ukraine adventure is just a massive gambit to tell the rest of the world "I don't bluff", preparatory to making bigger demands backed up by megaton-range warheads. That'd be scary.
Exactly this... What is the response of NATO et al to nuclear ultimatums?
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14 minutes ago, Holien said:
Looks like Ukraine is getting resupply
Russia invades Ukraine: Live updates (cnn.com)
First publicly acknowledged military aid arrives in Ukraine since invasion
From CNN's Paul P. Murphy and Josh Pennington
Poland has shipped a convoy with ammunition to Ukraine, according to the country's Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, making it the first publicly acknowledged shipment of military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
“A convoy of ammunition we are donating to Ukraine has already reached our neighbors. We stand by the Ukrainians, and show solidarity against Russian aggression," he said in a tweet.
The tweet neither described the sort of ammunition Poland sent the Ukrainians nor the amount.Doesn't the decision to make this public seems like a very big risk of a perceived escalation by NATO?
Thanks CHEqTRO for the above reply. ... Just f-ing terrible...
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What happens when Putin does engage/attack a NATO country (i.e. one of the Baltics)? Conventional warfare, nuclear, or a withdraw and let him have it because it was once part of the USSR and no one wants WW3?
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From NY Times: 2.25 - 11:00 AM PT
A satellite image taken on Friday shows helicopters lined up in Belarus, around 20 miles from Ukraine’s border.Credit...Maxar Technologies
Satellite images collected on Friday show more than 90 helicopters lined up across five miles of road in a rural area of Belarus, 90 miles from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The aircraft include both attack and transport helicopters, the same types seen Thursday in Russia’s assault on an airport outside Kyiv.
The decision to position the aircraft along a road close to Ukraine instead of a base appears designed to facilitate rapid deployments.
“It’s sort of the perfect range really,” said Tom Bullock, an analyst at Janes, about the location. “It gives these pilots much more ability to go into some of Russia’s main front lines, such as Kyiv.” Bullock says the aircraft include Ka-52 attack and Mi-8 transport helicopters.
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A long line of helicopters, seen parked on a street on Friday in Belarus.Credit...Maxar Technologies
Over the last few days there have been numerous reports of heavy fighting on the outskirts of Kyiv. The satellite images from today also show increased military activity in this same area of Belarus, including Russian ground forces lined up.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Reposting this article. There are no words in the English language to adequately describe how horrific and despicable the contents are, but imho it should be read by everyone following this thread. Compounded by the fact that this is being perpetrated exponentially en masse as we speak is sickening. It will eradicate any remaining vestige of compassion you might have for the RA. At least it did for me.. Russia can go to h*ll.
Glory to Ukraine