Taranis

Just routine...

dang that would skew the scales a bit more.  Current list:
MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 
Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 
Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division
Colonel Alexander Vladimirovich Zakharov, 6th tank regiment commander
Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade
Colonel Sergey Sukharev, commander of 331st Guards Airborne Regiment (of the 98th VDV Division)
Colonel Igor Nikolaev Commander of 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, the 3rd Motor Rifle Division.
Colonel Sergey Savvateeyev, Deputy commander of Rosgvardia SOBR
Colonel Nikolay Ovcharenko, the chief of engineer troops of Western Miliatary District.
Captain of 1st rank (=colonel) Andrei Paliy Deputy of Black Sea Fleet commander, 
Lt Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
Lt Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade
Lt.colonel Alexei Khasanov, deputy commander of 31st Fighter aviation regiment
Lt Colonel Mikhail Orchikov was deputy commander of a motor-rifle brigade 19th motor-rifle division
Lt.colonel Alexandr Pazynich, the regimental commander deputy for human resources of 14th Guard Fighter Aviation Regiment
Lt.colonel Renat Gaisin
Lt.colonel Ilya Piatkin, 38 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel Roman Ryabov, 50 years  SOBR
Lt.colonel (likely) Mikhail Rodionov, 46 years   SOBR
Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment
Major Sergey Krylov deputy battalion commander from the VDV's 331st Airborne Regiment
Deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M) that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

Captured
Lieutenant Colonel Maxim Kryshtop: Deputy Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment 
Lt. Colonel Astrakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich:  SOBR
 

Reinforcements arriving in the Ukraine...😀

Ukraine has no "ethnic exclusivity" BS that Russia stands on. But our extreme tolerance and forgiveness for all the evils russians did to us is what led us to this.
And it can be resolved strictly politically:
The way it should go is hopefully either forbidding everyone with a russian passport to enter Ukraine for at least next 5 years after the victory or selling them visas for a few thousand dollars, kind of a "reparation tax" to enter.
It will be a good start. All that russians have destroyed with their support for war or silence will be expensive to rebuild.
Lives they destroyed can never be rebuilt though.

Of course. NATO is a strong guarantee that nothing bad happens to its members because that guarantee comes from nuclear countries. And the sole fact that no NATO member was ever attacked is a solid proof of that.
Plus being neighbors with a country that wants to murder all of us for the sole reason of some made-up delusions means there is no alternative to NATO that will guarantee our survival.
If we were in NATO to begin with - this war would have never happened.
And naturally being part of EU is a great thing too. Because civilization is about making money, lots of money - at least for the foreseeable future. And EU is about making money. War is bad for money. Peace is good for money. So EU found a way for its ever warring countries to peacefully co-exist and resolve all the issues through hard cash.

On a lighter note... Can we have tankriders in CMBS? Oh wait! 😀
 

UKR HMMWV in action
 

Systems like the Protector RWS C-UAS looks like a promising way to deal with drones, especially the cheap commercial ones. The US Marines have signed a contract for it, using 30mm grenades with proximity fuses. 
https://defence-blog.com/us-marine-corps-awards-contract-to-kongsberg-for-counter-uas-weapons/
 

Update on the mystery Croatian Tu-141 drone crash from the Wikipedia summary
 

So I gotta start by asking: are you honestly engaging in a discussion here and want to explore ideas?  Because you are coming across as a guy whose mind is made up and no amount of rational discussion is going to matter.  I am honestly going to try here, you get exactly one shot based on your tone so far:
1 - Absolutely true, plans definitely do not survive contact, as old as warfare.  However, what is important is how fast one can re-plan and pivot.  In this the Russians have not demonstrated an ability to come up with a "new plan" and re-org to it.  They have had a pregnant pause which has allowed their opponent to organize/mobilize, arm up, dig in, dominate the narrative, and access billions in military support.  And then there is the quality of that initial plan.  Failing to establish some key operational pre-conditions (e.g. why does the internet still work for Ukraine?) is also not a very good sign. So let's see the quality of the second (or third) plan and then we might now better what is going on.
2 - You said "The Russians have taken losses, but they remain free to operate combat aircraft and helicopters over most of the country." That is not true, in fact it is very not true below about 10k feet.  The fact that Russian forces did not set the basic pre-condition of gaining air superiority is a demonstration of their problem, not Ukraine's.  Plenty of evidence of Ukrainian UAV strikes online to demonstrate that we really are in more of an airpower stalemate and that is bad for an invading force.
3 - The Russian Navy is definitely still a factor.  They have sea control and are hitting with missiles but 1) like everything else the Russians are doing, there appears little integration between naval, air and land power at this point and 2) the Russian amphibious capability is in serious question. If for the sole question, "why have they not used it yet?  that said sea control will likely not be decisive, nor has it been decisive so far.
4- Evidence of defeat (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html), so that is coming up on 24 BTGs of tanks, look at the logistics vehicle, coming up on 485...that is bad.  But even if you refuse to believe this, then one has to ask "what losing looks like".  Over to you as you asked the question.  However, it is a layered issue.  Political defeat, military defeat, economic defeat - if we are talking military defeat, well then an inability to influence or shape negotiations in the direction of national interest is near the top for me.  And as we watch the bubble slide on the Russian side of the table, it is not looking good, but I will give you that the jury is still out. 
5- Well backwards, as on a map, is kind of a one dimensional view to be honest. The primary way Russia has "gone backwards" is in the will of the Ukrainian people.  This is not about terrain, it is about their willingness to fight.  I think if Russian had one a quick and fairly clean fight that will might have stayed relatively dormant; however, that "plan did not survive" and now the entire nation is galvanized in an existential fight...that is definitely "backwards" from a Russian perspective.  Economically, narrative and just about any other non-military metric you want to apply Russia has gone backwards severely and let's not even start on the diplomatic front as it has been a complete disaster.  But if you only want to measure ground, then I guess we have to see.
So we have discussed a lot on forces and comparisons.  Right now, conservative estimate is that UA and Russian manpower is pretty near parity in theatre.  Russia does have equipment advantage but it has failed to be able to really leverage that.  Why?  Well that is a million dollar question.  What we have seen is that Russian mass is not working, if it was that map would look a lot different.  I suspect it is either because the Russian war machine simply is not setup for this complexity and has fallen under its own weight, and the Ukrainians help them along with that.
You are correct on one point, this is coming down to Will.  The Russians can keep pouring men into this fight, even if they are dismounted and have no ammo or food but if they have the Will that is an option.  What you seem to be sidestepping is the other issue, the Ukrainian Will to fight.  They see this as existential and are acting as such, so that is a problem right there for the Russians, unless they want a decades old resistance blowing up in their face but frankly I can't even seeing them getting that far as that would mean the Russians actually have to control the entire country and not about 15% of it.  Until then arms and support will flow in from the west and Russians will bleed...but we will see who blinks first.
 Lemme just close with a very important point - this is not an internet argument that anyone can "win".  I know the reflex is there to play forum games and try to "out argue each other" but that is not what is happening here.  For the most part no one really has a full picture of that is going on so we are sharing information and trying to build the best picture we can.  So the usual internet argument games do not apply here.  If you have a different assessment based on information you have, present it and we can all get a better picture.  This is a real war and people are dying in droves, so I frankly do not care who is "right or wrong" on a given Thurs because the situation is too dynamic.  But if you honestly want to contribute then do so, but this is not a contest...it is a really violent and scary puzzle.  Finally, there are people posting here who are actually in range of all those guns so let's also try and keep that in mind.

Pryluky town area, Chernihiv oblast. 
Next ambushed convoy. One MLRS BM-27 Uragan damaged, other captured. Also Tigr and T-72B3 destroyed, but maybe this is other episodes around this town




 
 
 

Gets more interesting towards the end.  Would appear UKR morale is pretty good.
 

Everyone is a forward observer in Ukraine:
 

Apparently mayor of Melitopol has been freed in a “special operation.”  He and Zelensky speak (in Russian of course):
 

Not nearly enough Congress.
Russian tanks getting wrecked in Mariupol:
 

This could also be a signal.  The narrative is shifting slightly and heading towards "Mission Accomplished".  He needs something at the negotiation table - Ukraine not in NATO and Crimea neutral state, may be enough.  He can then declare "victory" and pull back "peace with honor" style, claiming a need to stop the suffering being perpetrated on Ukrainians by their own government, or some weird narrative.  
Putin is too cagey not to start seeing writing on the wall.  When/If this happens, we can start thinking about what happens next.

slightly morbid but I've been trying to keep a running account
MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 
Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division
Colonel Andrey Zakharov, a tank regiment commander
Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade
Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade
Lt.colonel Alexei Khasanov, deputy commander of 31st Fighter aviation regiment
Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment
Confirmed recently claimed death of high-ranked officer of 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M), Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Esatern miliitarty district: the chief of liason, chief of staff deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov. So, this can be real, that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

Brutal - Looks like it went over a Mine ??
 

Azov also claims they have elimineted next Russian general. There is a graphic photo of his body with a shoulder strap of mayor-general. There is unknown who is it for now. There is a version this is mayor-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
Grafic photo! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN4UJ5cWUAIJrz-?format=jpg&name=large
Confirmed recently claimed death of high-ranked officer of 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M), Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Esatern miliitarty district: the chief of liason, chief of staff deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov. So, this can be real, that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...
 
 

Seems like another major general bites the dust. In Mariupol no less.
The second link is more graphic and shows the rank
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/15/7331504/
https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325251/azov_znyschyv_generalmayiora_okupatsiyinyh_viyisk_foto
 
Azov promises to reveal his name later
 
And some more bonus photos from the counter-attack and "let's all bunch up behind a building" russian tactics
https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3325276/polk_azov_rozbyv_pidrozdil_22yi_brygady_spetsialnogo_pryznachennya_zs_rf_oos_foto

Since we were discussing Russian order of battle a bit earlier, here are some good overview resources:
https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/IOP-2019-U-021801-Final.pdf
https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Western-Military-District.pdf
https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/Russian-Forces-in-the-Southern-Military-District.pdf
Of course, the OOB in Ukraine has been supplemented with forces from the Central and Eastern MDs.

4th Guards Tank Division is the only unit that operates T-80U, I believe.