db_zero

Good report on Ukraine mastery of information warfare:

There are vast natural gas fields in the area threatened. Russia already controls territory that’s 10 miles away from the vast natural gas fields according to reports I’ve seen. There is also the fear that Russia could take control of the coasts and ports. That would be a catastrophe for Ukraine as it would then become a landlocked nation with no access to the sea. If that takes place then Ukraine is ruined economically. Ukraine could keep the rest of the country but it would no longer be a viable one and would become dependent on the west for survival. The request for heavy weapons especially offensively oriented heavy weapons like tanks is to allow Ukraine to counterattack and retake the economically valuable territory back from Russia. Supporting Ukraine both militarily and economically could become a problem in the upcoming months. The Fed is going to start raising rates aggressively and reducing its balance sheets. Inflation is raging and a recession is being discussed in economic circles. The ugly prospect of stagflation something many Americans have never experienced could be in the cards. IMO: Putin may be trying to prolong this war if things don’t go his way. The economic pain may cause fractures in the West and he knows midterms is taking place in November and the party hostile to the current one is slated to win big and has pro-Russia elements. A Presidential election is coming up in 2 years and he may get an admission more sympathetic to Russia in office. Putin has gone all in. I’m of the opinion he’s gone all in and put all his chips on the table and it’s ride or die time. He is determined to revive the Russian Empire and take control of all the historical gaps in geography that threatens Russia. He doesn’t care about wealth, the economy or anything else. It’s now or never the demographic trends in Russia dictates that it’s now or never.

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It’s just crazy how you can now view real war like this. The 1991 Gulf War was a revolution in how war was reported and shaped. Now you can see it in real time. What’s next? VR?

I actually like to watch this as well China’s spectacle’s. If their combined arms execution was like their parades we’d be in trouble. This years parade will be interesting to see. You often see many of the Russian troops taking part smiling as they march. I expect a much more somber experience this year. I don’t know if the same commanders and troops take part year after year but if so there’s probably going to be new faces this year.

As drones proliferate they will become commodity items. Like every other tech device, the cost goes down, capabilities increase and thrown away after one use is possible. Look at cell phones. They used to cost a fortune for just the basics. Now you can get cheap ones with a lot of features and toss in garbage after 1 use. That means you’ll some versions like surveillance ones issued and used like ammunition. They’ll be used once and be disposed of. No need to worry about recovering them. Makes use on every vehicle practical. Launch one, if the sensors and algorithms detect something crews are notified. Probably already taken place.

In the US its looking better that Russia or China. https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/nalfo/USDemographics.pdf Europe's trends: https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/system/files/ged/eprs-briefing-633160-demographic-trends-eu-regions-final.pdf One thing that is undeniable-the trend is movement towards urban and coastal areas.

FWIW-The Sun reported that Russia put out a notice for retired ex-soldiers up to the age of 60 to volunteer for auxiliary duty in parts of Russia. Here is the story from another source, whether they are reliable is anyone's guess. https://theworldnews.net/gb-news/russia-pleading-with-60-year-olds-to-volunteer-for-army-after-heavy-ukraine-losses In another related story Mikhail Khodorkovsky an ex-oligarch who left Russia has said that if Putin starts sending conscripts from the urban areas to Ukraine there will be a political price to pay. Conscripts from the poorer rural areas that get killed can have their families paid off and that helps tamp down unrest. I don't think this will stop Putin, but I suspect it will force a change in strategy. The Russian trump card is massive artillery and they will probably use massive long range bombardment followed up by small probing attacks and plodding forward movement whenever possible. The Syrian volunteers will be used as cheap cannon fodder, while the Wagner mercenaries and better quality Russian forces following up. Things may turn into a long grinding war of attrition. The West should figure out and send weapons that can effectively neutralize the Russian artillery and force the Russian to engage aggressively.

If you think the population trends are bad for Russia they are even worse for China. A rapidly aging population and low birth rates. Even worse is China may have overstated its past and current population by a significant amount. At the current rate you could see a population that is halved in China by 2050 if they overstated or 2100 if population wasn't overstated. This greatly affects the size of the military, size of economy, type of economy and a whole range of other factors.

Given the advancements made in CAD design, microchips, algorithms and advanced manufacturing techniques it would be fairly easy to design and field a radical direct fire tank like vehicle that is small, light and could even be reconfigured into something like an AT gun that could be remotely controlled. It all comes down to budgets and willingness to try something different. There’s a reason why the Marines have remotely controlled boats that can fire switchblades and use direct fire guns-the Navy controls the budget and boats move on the water. Now that Germany is re-arming there is opportunities to do joint ventures and for Europe to flex its design and R&D muscles, but Germany now has a bigger energy issue to focus on. I posted a article in the Ukraine thread that shows a Marine with a backpack mounted anti-drone device. I have no doubt something similar and more powerful is already out there that can be mounted on a tank. They just don’t advertise it. I also would not be surprised if there is already something out there to counter missiles like the Javelin that we haven’t been told about. If a Javelin cost $100,000 I would not be surprised if the true cost was $50,000 and $50,000 was used to research a counter measure to be used against a Javelin. If you ever saw the movie “Contact” there is a scene where Hatten says something to the effect-first rule of government-Why build one when you can build 2 for twice the cost… Keep an eye on Israel. They have a sizable mechanized force as well as an excellent tech industry. They have a vested interest in all of this and are keeping a keen eye on what’s going on in Ukraine.

Now would be a good time to train and transfer some MLRS systems to Ukraine. They would be great for counter battery fire against the Russian artillery. If we have any HAWK batteries in storage or someone has some that could be transferred now is the time to do it. seems like Russia will need time to reorganize and regroup after their pullback. It takes time for the Ukrainians to learn new systems and get the necessary infrastructure to support a system like the MLRS or HAWK so do it now when there is a pause. Many European nations use good mobile anti-ship systems so now is good time to transfer to Ukraine.

Its already been said the Sun isn't the most reputable source of information and the story is in the tinfoil or coverup category depending on how you lean. In either case that's not what I find interesting. What is interesting is the "ghostbuster anti-drone" tech and the Stingers at the ready, which in youtube videos is reputedly anti-drone capable... My uneducated guess is if whiz bang anti drone tech is light enough to be carried on the back of a soldier, then its light enough to be mounted on a tank and the tank can generate a lot more juice (power) to a jamming device. Next question-is IFF installed and used on drones. https://www.the-sun.com/news/5045679/us-warship-car-sized-ball-of-light-ufos/

I don't know how much credence you can give to reports, but Syrian mercenaries lured by money are currently being trained for deployment. What their actual number is who knows. Same with Wagner Mercenaries. Their combat effectiveness is doubtful, but their tendency to rape, pillage and plunder if given the opportunity should not be underestimated. The word of Russian atrocities has undoubtedly leaked out to Ukrainian forces. We're probably entering a very brutal phase of the war and a cycle of unrelenting brutality.

I liked Panzer Pajamas and watched all of his videos. The last one I can recall was a Shock Force 2 AAR- Operation Wilcox. Does seem like his videos are gone. Too bad. Great production values.

Civilians getting massacred, raped, gassed...its been going on for years. Its been reported and in all honesty the West just sighed and went about business as usual. Now that its happening in Europe its gaining traction. Its been alluded to in a previous post weeks ago. Not a pleasant reality to have to look at, but something to think about.

If elite snipers miss all the time then pistol packing pixel troopers shoot like John Wick. Like the gunners in WW2 half-tracks its something you learn to live with. I recently had a h2h game where I sent my pistol packing pixel trooper into a situation and he didn't disappoint.

Media reports indicate that Finland is getting closer to joining NATO and if they request membership it will be granted. Public opinion in Finland seems to be in favor and opposition to it weak. For Finland its a radical change. If Finland joins then the focus goes to Sweeden...

When I look at the reports, the videos, the intelligence feeds I can only conclude the Russians are spent and done… Yet Ukraine and Russia are worlds apart when it comes to a cease fire agreement… and when I look at what Russia endured in Chechnya and what was endured before WW2-massive collectivization, purges, loss of millions in the opening stages of Barbarossa, relocation of factories to Siberia, the NKVD shooting of those retreating, penal battalions and other hardships Russians have endured… My gut feeling is we’re only in the early stages of what will be a very long drawn out and brutal war. Initial impressions are deceiving. Just look back to 2003 and the euphoria that took place only to be the opening stages of a long drawn out affair. I don’t trust the 80% support for Putin, but I think at some point the complete humiliation of the Russian military could spark a deep resentment of the west, hardening of attitudes and a deep seated desire for Russians to redeem their national pride. The Iraqis were a beaten and submissive people in 2003, but at some point attitudes changed.

Good points. Considering infantry could go into battle in amtracs or LAVs as well as how one defines light/medium/heavy infantry it could be all of the above depending on the circumstances. A while back I saw a piece of a new specialty in platoons-a tech-infantry specialist who manages the tech and drones stuff. With the current events taking place I have to wonder if the TOE will be modified with more Javelins and perhaps NLAWS being purchased as they have different attack profiles. I would have to think development of a very light ATGM around the size and weight of the old LAW that uses a top down as well as a direct attack mode and shorter minimum arming distance has got to be on someones radar and wish list. With microchip technology being what it is many things are possible. The addition of highly mobile anti-ship missiles with ranges in the hundreds of miles is a radical change. The last time I can recall US land forces having a dedicated anti-ship mission was the coastal defense guns back in WW2. The addition of mobile land based anti-ship batteries is going to be a game changer for navies facing the US. Another potential area for modernization is the remaining field artillery units. The army has been testing the Palidin using shells that give them anti-missile capabilities.

The events in Ukraine are going to add some more fuel to the fire regarding the highly controversial reorganization of the US Marine Corps. The current commandant has eliminated all tanks, reduced artillery, helicopters and fixed wing assets to focus on guided missiles, drones, long range anti-ship missiles batteries and long-range unmanned surface vessels that has sensors and weapons that allow for pinpoint bombardment. They are also buying unmanned boats loaded with Kamikaze drones. The reason for the re-org is the likely adversary China is a Pacific oriented theater that involves vast distances and the need for light highly deployable forces. Many of the potential hot spots are small atolls and shoals. Tanks are too cumbersome and heavy to land on these atolls and the risk of losing them to handheld anti-tank weapons is too great is the argument. Artillery is also limited by the fact many of the tiny islands are so small they can't be used from a safe distance away from enemy fire and may not be able to use indirect fire at close range. While not totally useless its argued that tanks and artillery "are of less value than the things we need the most" and with a limited budget choices have to be made. This has drawn the ire of just about every past commandant and they have been engaging in a PR campaign to slow or stop the re-org and are now lobbying congress. The argument here is the force structure is too tailored for a potential fight with China and would be ineffective elsewhere. There have been arguments that eliminating tanks makes the new force structure vulnerable in a fight with a armored heavy opponent. The events in Ukraine where light infantry armed with guided missiles are decimating tanks and IFV's, pretty much invalidates the infantry is vulnerable to armored formations even when taking into account the Russians lack of finesse. The argument that the new force structure would not be useful in a theater like Europe is also looking sketchy. A force structure like the new Marine Corps one would be highly effective in the southern coastal region of Ukraine. Anti-ship missile batteries would make any sort of Russian amphibious invasion or ship resupply of land forces a very risky proposition. Long range unmanned surface vessels with precision guns and guided missiles and drones would also be very effective. Norway another area the marines currently train in would be another region where the new force structure would be very effective as would Sweden and Finland if it ever came down to it. I still believe tanks are highly effective when properly used, but they are expensive to acquire, expensive to maintain and they will definitely need APS and more APS systems need to be developed. All of this will require money, lots of it and they are not easily deployable as their weight is already approaching the limits of practicality and adding on more stuff to protect them will only add to the weight problem. In the past few decades global populations have been trending away from rural areas into urban areas. Over 90% of global commerce moves on the sea, so it follows that urban areas located near the water is where the centers of government and economic power lie. A light infantry centric force with precision weapons, drones, unmanned surface vessels and anti-ship missiles makes a lot of sense. He may be highly controversial but General Berger is beginning to look very visionary.

Ukraine may not be a NATO member, but for all intents and purposes they are integrated into the NATO command and control structure and its no secret NATO and the US is feeding them real time intelligence and assisting with targeting information. The precision and timing of strikes on Russian targets is simply too hard to believe that's its been a matter of luck. For the past few years besides training and weapons the US has been supplying command and control equipment and software. By this time NATO has a very clear picture of the Russian electronic battlefield picture. Those alleged Ukranian helos that managed to slip into Russian airspace didn't do so by accident. They flew a precise flight path with the knowledge of where and when gaps in Russian radar coverage would appear. By now NATO/US knows the individual radar operators, what time they go to work and individual Idiosyncrasy of ADA operators. I wouldn't be surprised if those eavesdropping on them have given them call signs and know details like many of the operators are angry their access to porn hub was cut off... A squadron of F-18 WWs were recently sent to Europe. Can only imagine what they have been up to.

I never heard of this guy before but apparently he is a well know geopolitical strategist. He wrote a book that accurately predicted Russia invading Ukraine back in 2014 and even got the timing right (The Accidental Superpower). Very interesting insights on population trends and why Russia had no other alternative and had to move now. I don't agree with all of his conclusions and some are proving incorrect, but I still find his views interesting and enlightening. These are heavy into geopolitics, economic and over 1 hour each. You can do a search on youtube to find the videos: Peter Zeihan: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning The Battle for Ukraine & Prospects for World War III | Peter Zeihan Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War | Maneuver Center of Excellence

I just saw an article and the head of Army procurement said we can boost production so likely congress is going to get a request. I think they should ask for more than what was handed out.

Might not be a quick. The tolerances for microchips can vary and the process of manufacturing them is a lengthy process. May even require some retooling. Disrupting the civilian economy carries risk. While governments can do things by decree in todays divided environment it’s best avoided. Even if the government issued decrees the actual manufactures of the weapons may not be able to crank out a lot fast. These are precision instruments of war and the manufacture of them probably require highly skilled workers and engineers. It’s not like rosy the riveter or making N95 mask or ventilators. In any event it’s a red herring…looks like the military is gearing up to request a boost in money to replenish the stocks of missiles. they should ask for more than what was handed out