db_zero

These days you can buy portable translators. Never used one but some swear by em...

There is chatter in the financial industry of possible secondary sanctions against China if they allow Russia to use China's payment systems to bypass sanctions. There is also talk about retail Chinese investors placing bets on China buying distressed Russian assets-you can go a search and find the articles on this. On the financial news last night I watched reports on some of the big US companies that might get hit by any secondary sanctions against China. If worst comes to worst we may see a China-Russia alliance vs US/NATO/Japan/South Korea alliance and a complete re-shifting of the global economic order.

Looks like some have the German Panzerfausts that was sent.

Just saw Kinophiles post so I'll delete.

My guess is if any sort of chemical attack in done. US/NATO will protest loudly and perhaps launch a few select cruise missile strikes against Russian targets in the Ukraine. A no-fly zone would probably be highly unlikely but not completely out of the question, but would require a significant time to get necessary forces in place. It would also likely require going after targets in Belarus and Russia. I wouldn't be surprised in China steps in and puts pressure on Russia. A general US/NATO-Russian conflict doesn't fit into their plans for domination. I believe Chinas game is the Sun Tzu dictum that the best general wins without fighting. Speaking of China I'm even less convinced that before they can take Taiwan. Taking Taiwan would be a big ask for even the US, let alone China who has no experience in conducting an coordinated air-sea land amphibious operation. If what we’re seeing now in the Ukraine is any indication, conducting a coordinated large scale military operation with a high chance of success against a competent opponent that is adequately supplied and willing to fight is only a luxury the west can afford. It requires a professional force that can and is willing to spend lavishly on things like the NTC, Red Flag, Maple Flag and the numerous other training venues that will hone a force to the necessary level of competence and weed out those who are not fit. This costs money-lots of money. I read that one of main issues for Russia and the modern Armada tank was the cost. The Russian economy couldn't afford to build them in sufficient numbers. Then there are the structural issues in Russia and arguably Chinese society than hinder their ability to conduct a modern combined operation on a large scale. Of course this is all subject to change, but until we get proof of significant changes being made I don't see Taiwan coming under the Chinese flag anytime soon. Speaking of change I suspect there may be changes to armored forces and doctrine. The prospect of going against a force amply armed with the likes of a Javelin, NLAW and Stingers in large numbers is going to generate a lot of study, thought and push for innovation to counter the new reality. DARPA and the DoD is likely busy sending out RFPs to defense contractors for possible solutions. I've seen suggestions that tanks will probably un-manned in the future. I think lasers that shoot down incoming missiles is a possibility. Drones is also another possible solution. A drone I bought years ago has the ability to lock onto a person or object and follow it. It wouldn't take much to program a drone to lock onto a person carrying a portable missile or the launch signature and then hunt them down. As I mentioned before I suspect a lot of the shooters have been getting away and surviving to hunt again. They post a few video clips and before long everyone wants to get in on the action. If shooters start getting eliminated the equation will change. The Israelis after suffering heavy losses to infantry equipped with ATGMs and RPGs in 73, started mounting lots of machine guns and started spraying in the direction fire was coming from. Even if they didn't eliminate the shooter distracting them was just as effective. They re-learned the value of combined arms and infantry and artillery was no longer neglected. Last thing of note-modern urban combat. Years ago, back in the days of NATO vs the Warsaw Pact I bought a board game-Cityfight. Never found anyone to play though, but the write up that came with it was interesting. Over the years many have suggested that combat in urban centers was going to be the trend of the future. The demographics was shifting to urban areas and that's where the centers of power and wealth are concentrated. Being exposed in the open in the day and age of precision weapons was highly risky, but in an urban environment some of the advantages of precision weapons can be negated. One of the mayors has promised to turn their city into another Stalingrad. Odessa is a fortified city. Kyiv has become a fortified city. I've heard estimates from experts that Kyiv could hold out up to a month, while other say longer. I've even hard one estimate of 9 months. I'm hoping it doesn't come down to a brutal city fight and some sort of end of the fighting can be found, but it seems like both sides have dug their heels in and it’s a fight to the bitter end and regardless of the outcome, both sides will lose in some way or another. and just like every other war in history its going to be the non-combatants who will bear the brunt of the suffering.

Will the US/NATO cross the Rubicon? If it was a full fledged NATO country that’s one thing but it seems like there are limits regarding Ukraine.

The subject of what the US/NATO will do if Russia uses gas has undoubtedly been discussed at high levels. What the response will be is anyones guess but IMO going full Rambo or even a no fly zone will be off the table. Leaders will have to sell the prospect of WW3 to the people not just those sitting behind a keyboard and that’s probably going to be a hard sell. Like it or not gas has been used on numerous occasions. It was used against the Kurds in the 80’s. Used in the Iran/Iraq conflict quite often and recently in Syria and nothing besides protests were registered. Another cold hard fact is in just about any conflict no matter what the intentions, rules of engagement or motives, when the tally of bodies is counted up, it always civilians who suffer the most. War sucks for everyone but it really sucks for non-combatants who suffer the most.

I’m in no way condoning Russian attacks on civilians or civilian targets but the way the Russians control information and the fact that many troops below the rank of officers are issued maps, it’s possible that grunts operating weapons like artillery are just given coordinates to fire at and have no idea of what’s on the receiving end. It’s appears many are making judgments based on their western mindset where information is free, open and accurate. In many places information is highly controlled and restricted.

All these captured Russian soldier talking ill of the invasion and Putin, some saying they want to overthrow him. Now you have to wonder if Putin will have a batch of sarin cupcakes for these soldiers when they return. Feel bad for them. Talk about caught between a rock and a hard space, especially if any ceasefire agreement Ptuin demands they be sent back to Russia for "processing".

The Russian people went though very hard economic conditions in the 90's when Western financial institutions came in and as part of economic assistance they had to agree to very stringent austerity measures. It was pretty bad, but that was also a generation used to an old Soviet economic system and economic hardship. Today the Russians became accustomed to western amenities like Apple Pay, Master Card, Visa, Pay Pal and other perks-travel, access to Western education. There is a middle class, but there is also a divide between the urban and rural areas. Remains to be seen how this new generation reacts and adapts to the new economic realities. Its been said in the rural areas support for Putin and his actions is still strong, but how accurate and how long that will last is anyone's guess.

There is speculation but nothing solid about China acquiring positions in distressed Russian companies. Make sense for China if they can gain an interest in natural resources that Russia has in abundance for its voracious appetite.

The damage to the "Russian Brand" is going to be enormous. Most people now associate Russia with Putin and if you ask most people about Putin they will associate Putin with whats going on in the Ukraine. That is going to take a very long time to erase and it may require Putin to be gone and a new leadership with new policies to erase the negative image. Even if all sanctions were ended tomorrow, many western companies will be hesitant to go back into Russia so long as Putin is in power. There will be enormous public pressure put on any company that does business under a Putin regime and they will at the very least have to publicly explain why... I would not want to be the CEO of a company who's picture is plastered all over the news and social media as doing business with a murderous regime.

stealth technology is not 100% foolproof. A F-117 was shot down over Bosnia in the 90s Stealth technology doesn’t make you invisible. Reduces signature, range you’re detected and reaction time. There is still a risk that a stealth aircraft gets shot down.

The best SEAD against man portable systems may just be a good rapid ground offensive backed up by effective reconnaissance and artillery or sniper teams to kill and suppress the shooters. I suspect most of the shooters of these anti tank and anti air systems are killing Russians and surviving due to the lack of tactical finesse and motivation of the Russian forces and poor operational planning and execution. The Israelis lost a lot of aircraft in the 73 war. Once they got stand-off weapons and ECM pods from the US it helped but the real success was when they took the offensive and started destroying SAM sites with direct assaults or artillery fire.

A no fly zone over Ukraine is not just about the risk of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft. The Russians have sophisticated SAMs like the S300 and S400 that would have to be suppressed. These sites are surrounded by mobile and static anti aircraft positions that would also need to be suppressed. The long range of the S300/400 and the overlapping nature of a layered air defense network would mean NATO would also have to suppress positions in Belarus and Russia itself. We’re talking a major escalation. That’s why it’s completely off the table.

You’re definitely going to hear a lot of talk about the demise of the tank, just like you did after the 1973 Yom Kippur war. After the stunning 1967 victory Israel became a tank dominated army and neglected the mech infantry and artillery branch. Once they realized their error the hard way they changed tactics and rectified the imbalance and regained the upper hand. No question weapons like Javelin, NLAW and Stinger make life far more perilous for tankers as well as helicopters and low flying aircraft, but I think the lack of tactical and operational finesse and execution is also a huge factor. Its also clear there are basic structural flaws in the Russian military and society that are contributing factors. If a Western Army like the US conducted a similar operation against a similar armed opponent like the Ukrainians I don’t think we would be seeing the same sort of results…the execution, coordination and finesse would produce different results. Like the 1973 war this current conflict is going to result in a lot of study and research into ways to counter weapons like the Javelin.

Like many I’m a Cold War kid. Studied the Soviet Union and NATO vs Warsaw Pact quite a bit back in the day. I think todays world is far more dangerous. During Cold War it was basically a bi-polar world. Now it’s multipolar. You have more countries with nukes and don’t be surprised if more start seeking them as a way to insure their national sovereignty. You have a more connected world, social media, economies more interconnected and wealth distribution heavily tilted towards the top. Nations that were once creditor nations are deep in debt. Some even believe we may see an end of democracy in America as we knew it in a couple of election cycles. The demographics of the US is rapidly changing and the stress cracks are showing. China which was not a economic superpower during the Cold War now is and has built up its military and flexing its muscles. This whole Ukraine situation is a lot like the 1973 Yom-Kippur period. You had everyone questioning the role of the main battle tank after the Israelis suffered heavily from ATGMs (studied this a lot and is a whole separate and interesting topic). President Nixon threatened nuclear war by putting US nuclear forces on high alert as US and the Soviet Union were on a collision course over support of their respective client states. You also had a sever oil shock and years of inflation and stagflation-something I foresee for the West in the coming years

Every year Russia holds a big military parade. Rows of soldiers marching, shiny tanks and afv go rolling past the stand. Going to be interesting to see it this year…if for some reason it isn’t canceled.

Watched a retired general state that a 40km column on a narrow road like we’re seeing would be next to impossible to turn around without becoming a massive tangled mess if Putin ordered it to return to Russia. Called it a huge tangled mess and a massive traffic control nightmare. Then there are the stories of cheap Chinese made tires that are basically coming apart in the difficult Ukraine terrain, not to mention attacks by small Ukrainian groups, poor morale and stories of deliberate sabotage. Putins is angry and frustrated as hell. Probably saying to himself where’s the NKVD when you need them. In some way this slow moving 40 km column is reminiscent of the situation during Operation Market Garden where a large column was confined to a single narrow road with bad terrain surrounding it a lack of knowledge of side routes. Eventually it seems the there will be a linkup between the Northern and Southern force and by sheer numbers and firepower the Russians may prevail. I’ve heard estimates that Kyiv could hold out for a month as well as someone estimate 6-9 months. Who knows? I think we’re going to see sanctions work faster than we’re used to and perhaps the collapse of the Russian economy behind this war force some sort of end.

The largest ruble bill you can buy is 5000. I collect fiat bills and may try to get one just for fun if banks will sell them.

The Russian economy is said to be on verge of collapse. Ruble is worthless and country cut off from global economic system. Getting oil out of the ground, refining it and transportation to where it needs to be requires people and if there is no way to pay them with something of value and to even if you could give them worthless rubles or ill liquid yuans what good is it if there is little to nothing to buy? where’s the incentive to work? Plus if the current reports of civilian trucks being pressed into service at the front is true then there could be issues with the supply chain… in the past economic sanctions have been ineffective and taken a while to take hold, but I’m not sure anything on the speed and scale of what the west has done in a very quick, unified and wide scale have ever been done. There are now moves being made to restrict the buying of Russian gold. Once the Russian economy collapses they are back into the 18th century. There will be more than just fuel shortages. Don’t be surprised if we start seeing Russian workers go on strike soon.

Beginning to look like American tankers in WW2 using improvised measures. Iirc Patton would lecture crews against doing this sort of stuff because it put on extra weight the tank and suspension was not designed to handle. Adding that type of weight must do wonders for the motors that rotate the turret, but hey Russian equipment is the best money can buy and is of the highest quality…right? In any case looks like something that will prevent a top attack atgm from completely penetrating to the bottom of the tank. It will just penetrate the thin top armor and cook off the ammo stowed around the turret… im not an engineering/physics genius but I’m guessing these are sandbags being used and filled with sand. I did a search and sand vaporizes and turns to glass at 1700 degrees. This sort or improvised measure may make things worse…perhaps someone with more knowledge can enlighten me.

Let’s hope it stays that way, but it’s still a good idea to be prepared and get measures in place before you actually need it and are forced to do things at the spur of the moment.

I hope that the current western resupply effort included chemical weapons defense equipment and training provided. There is a general consensus that Russian troops don’t have the training , expertise or will to engage in close urban combat. Shelling probably isn’t enough to dislodge a determined resistance and history has shown blasting built up areas creates more problems for attackers. Some have said the Russians are recruiting Syrians because they have experience in urban warfare. These same troops may also have experience in dealing with fighting in a chemical environment too. When Russia was warned that chemical weapons was a red line that was not to be crossed in Syria, nothing happened and who was VP then? Syria was not the first time Russia used chemical agents. A while back they had a hostage incident and used a sleeping agent to incapacitate before going in… Chemical or a sleeping agent would seep down low into basements and buildings. At this point nothing should be ruled out. What about irritants commonly used in the West like tear gas, CS or pepper spray based irritants. If you’re not prepared to deal with that it can be a big disadvantage. How is the west prepared for a use of chemical sleeping agent or widespread use of non lethal agents to tip the battlefield by Russia? What sort of response would take place? Especially in light of Putins nuclear threat?

I guess the thinking may be if we give Poland the very latest version and it ends up being used in a conflict then its WW3 and the next world war will be fought with sticks and stones so may as well give them the latest version. When all is said and done Russia is going to be faced with an even more formidable NATO on its doorstep. Poland getting Abrams and probably F-16s in return for giving Ukraine its old Russian jets, Germany re-arming and talk of re-instituting a draft and a re-vitalized NATO who now has a purpose. Even if Sweden and Finland don't join NATO they are likely going to be spending more on defense and start coordination with NATO and the west. Watching a news report that in the past week 20,000 anti-tank and anti air missiles to Ukraine. That is freaking insane. No wonder its become a killing ground.