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db_zero

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Everything posted by db_zero

  1. The cost to rebuild what the Russians destroyed is going to be immense. I doubt Russia will agree to it, but taking some of the assets frozen to rebuild what they destroyed would be in order.
  2. Putin has indicated no intention of stopping he is determined to see this through. I don’t see him ever agreeing to give back the 2 regions he already declared as independent states. The longer this drags on the more risk of slippage of support in West becomes. There is a massive refugee issue that is going to cost a boat load of money to address. There is also a very high probability of a recession in the US and Europe. Asking the public to foot the bill for a continued war and refugee problem may become a problem. When war breaks out there is often a big initial level of support in the west that tends to taper out especially if it’s drags on for a long time.
  3. That missile strike that hit the military installation this morning was being used as a training center for the International Brigade- saw this reported. May see some foreign fighters injured if report is accurate. If what some have said about the Russians being overconfident and fighting with 1 hand tied behind their back at the beginning of the war, then we may start seeing more of the Russian AF if they were not fully prepared at beginning of war due to overconfidence.
  4. Remember that picture floating around years showing Putin smiling at a computer screen that showed what looked like CM Black Sea? Was that ever verified as authentic or some photoshop job? Maybe it influenced him into thinking it would be a cakewalk-no Javelin or NLAW equipped Ukrainians.
  5. When things go south people tend to resort to what they do best and what’s worked in the past. Russia failed at a quick shock and awe campaign so looks like they have resorted to what’s worked in the past. They are going to inch forward and blast a path while doing so. They will try and just steam roller their way forward and pummel whatever stands in their way. Regarding stopping the western supplies. The Russian Air Force is still seemingly absent. Using chemical weapons to assist clearing cities would generate a huge response, but Russia does have the ability to use persistent chemical agents loaded into missiles to interdict the main highways supplies are being transported on. In theory it could be targeted in a sparsely populated area where the roads run to interdict traffic. During the Cold War days it was assumed Russia viewed chemical warfare as something of a normal tool in the inventory and since then they and client states have resorted to its use. I don’t know if they have the ability to use scatterable mines on bombs or missiles to interdict supply routes. Maripol is under siege. Electricity is out. Food and water running out. Looks like Russia will wait and starve people out.
  6. Apparently there was a study done regarding the long term effect of eating just MRE's.The military and the entire United States Department of Defense recommends the light use of MREs, no more than a few days in a row. A test was done on subjects who ate MREs for 21 days straight. Severe constipation, sometimes alternating with severe diarrhea often resulted. "This poor fool ate two MREs a day for 21 days and lived to tell the tale. He reports bouncing back and forth between a bloated, sweaty constipation and gut-wrenching diarrhea. This is because a normal person’s digestive system is not used to the nutritional makeup of an MRE." Even if that’s not enough to scare you off, there is some evidence to suggest that severe constipation can lead to death in certain cases. The basic gist is that straining while taking a poop can actually set off a heart attack because of the stress placed on your body. Another terrifying possibility is a perforated bowel, which can lead to your undigested MRE leaking into your body’s cavities and causing septic shock. While this mostly happens to the sick and elderly, it’s not something I would toy around with. Another potential danger is the shelf life of an MRE is relatively short, much shorter than many other emergency foods. It lasts only up to 9 months in hot conditions. So if you choose to store MREs for disaster-preparedness, be sure to do so in a cool, dry place. If your MRE has expired, throw it out. Might be time for the Ukrainians to start targeting the field kitchens.
  7. I'm playing a h2h FB game and noticed the Sherman tanks have tank riders and is firing the main gun and the riders don't dismount. They continue hitching a ride and the tank is firing continues to fire its main gun. I would think this isn't possible IRL?
  8. The Russians don’t have the numbers to take the city and it’s highly doubtful they can effectively surround it . They can still bomb and shell the city and cause a lot of damage. If Putin goes postal and starts dropping chemical munitions it will get very ugly. In theory it could also be the trump card that would allow him to take the city but that would really get condemned heavily. Unfortunately it’s been done in the past. In the South it looks like there is the possibility Mariupol might fall and forces there could link up and possibly move north or that what some experts think… While some think this cannot go on for months as the Russian economy will collapse, some say not so fast. The Russian economy is one geared towards war and could carry on. Unless one side folds or some agreement to stop all this takes place we will find out who’s right.
  9. Interesting. Either incompetence or as some have speculated the Russians sent cannon fodder first and is holding back the decent troops to get a feel for what they are up against or as many have said they expected a cake walk… Even if they sent 10,000 of these cannon fodder in that’s still leaves a lot of internal security forces left and a lot more regular and reserve units left.
  10. I’ve seen numerous reports that “40 mile” convoy heading for Kiev has now dispersed and some artillery is now in range of the city. Some gave speculated that after making a 2 days straight drive the soldiers needed to rest and regroup and that’s why it was stalled. In any case it’s now been broken up into smaller groups.
  11. The Russian security forces like the National Guard and other forces are separate from the armed forces and responsible for internal security. Completely under different leadership and control. They number about 250,000 maybe more. So if push comes to shove regular and reserve military units would not have to be kept inside of Russia to maintain control. China too uses a similar model. Their internal security force is massive.
  12. We had even larger crowds protesting the Iraq war in cities and that didn’t stop the war. Putin seems determined to see this through and the internal security apparatus doesn’t seem to be turning against him. Looking at the picture being painted its looking like Russia will lose, but until the fat lady sings I’ll also entertain the other side that says not so fast… They only have to be right once.
  13. Its going to be interesting to see how all the economic stuff plays out. Like everything else there are predictions all over the spectrum. Some say the Russian economy is going to collapse, while other say not so fast-the Russian economy is one geared for war and while sanctions will hurt, the way the Russian economy is structured it won't collapse and they will find ways to adapt to the new reality. Russia spans 11 time zones and what most in the West sees in what the media can access in the urban areas, but there are vast tracts of rural areas and cites away from the main hubs like Moscow that nobody covers and does anyone really know how they feel? From what little I could see when asked how they felt about Putin and the war, some were against, but some were firmly behind Putin and the invasion. If Putin has support in the rural areas and they are already relatively poor and surviving on very little will economic sanctions really hurt them? If indeed the Russian economy is one geared for war, would people work for food and access to the basic necessities by working in state run factories that crank out weapons and ammo? There are those who are more familiar about Russia who have said the people are conditioned in a different way and the security services large and very powerful. I've been wrong about everything regarding this war and looking at how things look now I would believe Russia is going to lose, and their economy is going to collapse.
  14. Don't know. I've heard opinions of those who know far more about this sort of stuff and it varies. One thinks the Russians don't have enough combat power left to even surround Kiev. Another has said that while the initial phase was a complete farce you shouldn't make the mistake of the Finnish War or 1941 and make assumptions that the war is over and the Russian's are finished. The initial assumptions and impressions was the Russians would steam roller Ukraine, that was way off the mark. Now its the Russians will lose. That may be right or it may not be. Perhaps this just settles into a long drawn out affair were a stalemate takes place and Russia just digs in and continues to sustain long range artillery and missile strikes. While the assumption is Russia will collapse economically, some say it will become like Iran. I'd be careful about declaring outright victory before it actually happens. Didn't the US do that shortly after taking over Iraq? Ask any KC Chiefs fans about declaring victory too early
  15. RE:expired Russian MRE's. While not a good look, in general packaged food is usually good past its expiration date-at least that's what Ive gathered in food stuff produced in the western world. I have some MRE's, canned goods and survival food that are way past expiration date and I occasionally open one and eat and its fine to me. I've seen figures of 5-10 or even more years past the expiration date where food is still good. Depends on what the product is too. Spam will probably last past your lifetime... Russian products may not have the same level of quality control and with corruption being so widespread and rampant in Russia those MREs with an expiration date of 2015 could be a batch made far earlier and repackaged and just stamped with 2015. Who knows. Maybe someone can gather some up and send them to one of the youtuber who eat them and compare them and give one of these expired MREs a taste test.
  16. We may be approaching an inflection point where the main objectives are in play. IMO the Russians are probably going to go the siege route. The gritty and costly nature of urban combat will be too risky. Putin has already authorized the payment of huge sums of rubles for families of soldiers killed or wounded and even tyrants have limits placed on the number of young men they can send to the meat grinder. I would guess If the decision is made to assault urban centers it will be after a long siege and those foreign fighters from Syria and other places, however many their true number is, will be sent in first to wear down defenders and make the defenders use ammo and other supplies before Russian forces are used... I was surprised when it was mentioned the US Army doesn't have any guide to urban warfare. That may have changed. A while back though I did see a write up about how the Pentagon was allocating money to train in subterranean warfare so that may be changing. For those interested in the nuts and bolts of what may face the Russians should they decide to take urban areas by direct assault here are some interesting links. https://mwi.usma.edu/the-eight-rules-of-urban-warfare-and-why-we-must-work-to-change-them/ https://mwi.usma.edu/urban-warfare-project/ https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/MCWP 3-35.3.pdf https://www.army.mod.uk/umbraco/Surface/Download/Get/11772 https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/03/08/russia-doesnt-train-troops-urban-warfare-its-about-learn-consequences-ukraine.html https://nationalpost.com/news/world/urban-warfare-ukraine-russia A couple of good books on the subject: Concrete Hell: Urban Warfare From Stalingrad to Iraq Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities I've yet to find a good sim that models urban warfare in great detail. Its probably a very difficult thing to do anyway.
  17. Nobody is going to want to do business with Russia for a long time no matter what the outcome. Risk is too high... On another note I just watch a report on CNN where a retired general mentioned there is the possibility of Turkey sending the S400 system to Ukraine. I know Turkey has S400-it caused quite a stir in Washington when they bought them from Russia. Turkey has already signaled its disapproval of the Russian invasion, but I'm doubtful of S400s going to Ukraine, even though they are now asking for more sophisticated ADA.
  18. How much use will those liquid assets be if they can't access the global financial system? No doubt companies are going to have to eat the losses and don't expect the public to bail them out. They did business in Russia at their own risk. They knew who and what they were dealing with. Some oligarchs have stated Russia is on a path back to 1917. If Russia defaults and go the nationalization route nobody is going to do business with Russia for a least a decade. At this point I don't even know what scenario there is to get sanctions lifted. Even if Putin gets the boot the general consensus is who ever replaces him will be of the same system. BTW:Russia is number 1 wheat exporter and Ukraine number 5 from what I've heard. Besides oil/gas, expect a big increase in food prices. Recession is on the horizon and I'm expecting the US housing market and the sky high home prices bidded up by interest rates kept artificially low for so long and rampant speculation to come crashing down. The Fed who has kept rate too low for too long is out of bullets. The reason why the US is now so keen on the digital dollar is it allows for real negative rates.... As one article succinctly put it-American at home will feel the effects of this war far more than they did when we were engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  19. I have a bias based on past living experience in the Middle East-no amount of time and money would have changed the outcome I'll just leave it at that. No real practical experience with Eastern Europe. I did know someone who emigrated from Moscow and we would swap stories. He would always lament how the corruption was in Russia. Perhaps no amount of money spent by Moscow will produce a highly efficient military and Russia will always be a clumsy military that will rely on brute force. Based on a video posted earlier today a picture is emerging regarding the Ukrainian army. Apparently it was riddled with corruption and in a piss poor shape in 2014. It was re-organized and the western nations tasked with training it started from the bottom up working on the basics like tactics, weaning it away from the over-centralized Russian model and empowering the NCO's to make decisions instead of relying on officers to micromanage. Sounds like the past few years much was done on a higher level training mid and senior level officers the operational skills like combined arms and coordinating units and other operational skills. When all is said and done Ukraine is going to possess a western trained military with a lot of combat experience that is far different than the Middle East. I keep hearing from media sources that based in their sources the Russian army will eventually be able to bring their superior resources and firepower to ground down the Ukrainians, I'll have to defer to those who know more than me, but my gut tells me the Russians are a spent force, but maybe they are just re-grouping and the worst is still yet to come.
  20. Need to see flames and vehicles burning and crews and passengers screaming on fire otherwise it just wouldn't be right. Be like seeing James Bond going up to the bar tender and asking for a Shirley Temple.
  21. Not too long ago people were lamenting the billions spent in Afghanistan trying to build a modern army in the image of the west and what a spectacular failure it was. Now we're seeing another army built in the image of the west and its a spectacular success. Both instances are going to be the subject of a lot of studies in the future.
  22. Begs the question. Were the new generals picked on the basis of competence or loyalty to Putin. If solely on competence, how loyal will they be to Putin?
  23. Any plans to add Molotov cocktails? In the past modeling civilians has been mentioned and it was considered off limits. With the modeling of Volksgrenadiers in Red Thunder would some sort of civilian militia be considered for an expansion? Stingers-In Black Sea I don’t recall them being able to knock out small drones. I watched some videos on Stingers and apparently they are now capable of shooting down small drones. Don’t know if one’s given to Ukraine is capable of that.
  24. I have to bet that Xi seriously regrets getting into bed with Putin. India is also apparently still neutral with a slight tilt towards Russia. They may want to re-think their purchase of Russian arms especially tanks. If US and other nations companies pull out of China like Russia that will be huge.
  25. These days you can buy portable translators. Never used one but some swear by em...
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