db_zero

Do we know the breakdown of what platform fired these missiles. Air or ground based?

If Putin doesn’t get better terms from flattening cities then he’ll just satisfy is lust for vengeance. Back in my early adult years I had a friend who played football. They were one of the top rated teams. A visiting team came to play that would be an easy win. It was one of those bad weeks and they got the snot kicked out of them. By the third quarter it was over and the visiting team was talking smack… So it was decided to extract some payback. They went out and started doing stuff like aiming for the knees and doing all sorts of dirty stuff. While doing so making sure the visiting team knew that sure you’re going to win but you’ll pay a price for your victory. That sounds about right for Putin. It fact I can think of other prominent figures with the same sort of mindset.

I see YouTube videos that say latest version of the Stinger can shoot down small drones and you see Marines in practice shooting down small drones the size of a RC aircraft. The tiny hand size drones may be a different story. There are now drones that are the size and look of insects. Who knows what the military has or DARPA has developed that we don’t know about but ready to use if the need arises. This is from over 5 years ago:

The armor on SP artillery is thin and designed to stop fragments and perhaps bullets up to 50 cal. Im sure they Russians will try to protect them, shoot and scoot to try and prevent being hit by counter battery fire. They could be prime targets for drones and who knows, the Russian performance being what it’s been and lack of execution of even the basics they may not practice shoot and scoot and just yolo it.

I don’t think Putin cares. He’s already flattened cities in Chechnya, took part in flattening and gassing cities in Syria. Why stop now? He’s of the mindset that if he can’t win, then he’ll make sure he leaves heaping piles of rubble. He could also be grasping at straws, thinking if he can put Kyiv under pressure he can negotiate better terms. Being branded a war criminal doesn’t bother Putin. He’s got bigger things to worry about and the war crimes tribunal is a paper tiger. No enforcement mechanism, headed by members from third world countries.

At this point it seems like the best the Russian Army can hope for is inch up a little more to get their 152mm SP guns to where they can use continuous artillery fire to reduce all or most of Kyiv to rubble and if they can inch up far enough put the main supply route under artillery fire and force the incoming supplies to Kyiv to use alternate routes that will add about 4 hours to reach the city. Im seeing reports of Russian troops scrounging for Ukrainian ammo to shoot them selves in the leg so they don’t have to fight. Who knows what true but wouldn’t be surprised. Those 100 Switchblade drones- I was never aware of them. Wonder what they will be used against. Seems like more generals are being arrested. Want to say it’s time to stick a fork in it-the Russians are done, but may just see a long stalemate???

Basing on the fact 152mm SP artillery may soon come into range. Sustainable indirect fire brings a new dimension into the equation. Combined with missile and air bombardment we may begin to see Russia finally use combined arms in the field they are known for… indirect and indiscriminate firepower. Historically Russia viewed artillery as the god of war.

We both could be right. Success in one area, not so much elsewhere. It’s a big country and lots of battles, big and small raging all over. One thing I can say is looking at the people in the big cities, small rural areas in Ukraine as well as those protesting in Russia, I feel more of a kinship with them, that the politicians who incited this madness.

Take your pick from the numerous reports and throw a dart.

I’m no expert and perhaps someone more knowledgeable can elobrate but so far Central Kyiv has been targeted by missiles and air strikes, but if self propelled artillery gets into range that’s a whole different kind of hurt. Missiles and air strikes are a one and done type of deal. Sustained artillery fire is a different story. and if you correlate the news that a long curfew has been imposed and other news reports that the streets are empty you get the sense those on the ground have a sense of what’s coming.

Unfortunately now it seems like a real possibility.

Unreal, but given what we’ve learned about the over centralized nature of the Russian military, lack of secure communications, GPS, NVG and other equipment the West takes for granted, the Russians may be bunching up to maintain command and control…they have no choice and can’t adapt quickly.

I agree the Russians are not in a position to storm Kyiv, but Putin is psycho enough to cause as much death and destruction on Ukraine. Targeting of Ukrainian arms factories looks like that is coming. Also hearing S300s may be sent to Ukraine.

Judging from what I’ve seen Russia stand no chance, but I’m also seeing reports that the fog of war, western medias cutoff of Russian media and dominance of social media is giving a skewed picture of the war and people are scared to post any evidence of Russian successes because they will be labeled as pro-Russia, even if they are trying to be objective. One report even suggested that in the South the Russians did have some success and captured a large amount of Javelin’s that will be used against Ukraine.

Seeing report that Russians are slowing inching way forward towards Kyiv with fighting concentrated around a couple of regions on the outskirts. It been suggested that Russia wants to get closer to get their self propelled 152mm artillery in range of city center so they can reduce the city in a week or 2.

Does this benefit Russia by allowing the army to reset, refit and re-supply? I've seen reports that Russia has already begun practicing large scale maneuvers, presumably in response to lessons learned. A respite from fighting may give Russia time to get their sh** together like encrypting communications and changes to procedures. If they do have foreign fighters coming in it would give time to organize, equip and brief them on what to expect and lessons learned. A cease fire that is then followed by a resumption of fighting gives the precious commodity of time. While its easy to beat up on the performance of the Russian army, it has served them well in Syria and other places. Its only when they came up against a near peer enemy that was amply and quickly supplied with sophisticated weapons from the west that we've seen weaknesses greatly amplified and the results we're seeing. If the West didn't respond the way it did you might be able to make a case that even with the glaring weaknesses we might be looking at a much different picture that is much grimmer for Ukraine.

Even if Ukraine becomes a neutral state it raises a lot of questions. Who and where does military equipment to replace and rebuilt the military come from? Especially equipment like ADA and aircraft that may not be produced internally. Russia or the West? How would Russia view it if Ukraine wanted to accrue M1 tanks, Patriot Missiles or F-16s?

Regardless of who "win" and who "loses" both sides are going to end up losing in one way or another. Ukraine is devastated and faces years of rebuilding. Even if the population that fled returns it looks like the infrastructure and housing for them is a mess. I wouldn't want to venture to guess what the future economic outlook will be. Russia is going to face continued economic sanctions. Under what conditions they are lifted remains to be seen, but I don't see them being eased anytime soon. Perhaps more important is the "brain drain" in Russia as many people are fleeing Russia if they can. Russia may try to stop this. Then there is the question of Putin. Does he say or does he go, ether way it going to be hugely disruptive. India has already indicated a willingness to buy Russian resources at a big discount, but getting the resources to India is going to be a problem and could take months or years to build the infrastructure necessary. Same holds true for China. Both may end up buying stakes in Russian companies. All this taking place in a time when inflation is rising, energy prices high, interest rates set to go higher and odds of recession elevated for the west.

I’ve seen the pro Russian views posted by Chinese netizens as well as in person interviews where different views expressed. Even in the pro Ukrainian view, opinions of the Wests expansionism is expressed, but support for Russia invading was disapproved and it was largely seen as between Russia and Ukraine. What I did find interesting was an online post/video by a very angry Chinese citizen in Ukraine who told “keyboard warriors” in China to just STFU. It was getting back to Ukrainians and was making life very difficult. In fact he was stopped and said he had to tell Ukrainians he was Japanese. For a Chinese citizen to claim to be Japanese that’s pretty embarrassing. I have no doubt there is support for Russia in China and I’ve seen both pro and against. Where it actually stands overall is is debatable, but even here in the US we have media, internet celebrities and some prominent figures with large following supporting Russia and Putin and they have loud voices. What really matters is what Xi and the party think and do and for now that appears on the side of caution.

Like many dictators who turned out to be less than brilliant military leaders, Putin could demonstrate the ability to stay in power. Even if he is replaced who’s to say they won’t be a more capable administrator with the ability to actually be effective at reforming the Russian military and rooting out corruption. This is a disaster for the Russians and the junior leaders experiencing the current disaster will eventually be the mid and senior level leaders. The Israelis manhandled the Arab armies in 67 but saw a much different force in 73. The junior US leaders in the Vietnam War were the ones who vowed never again and built the war machine that crushed Iraq in 1991. Remains to be seen how Russia handles this latest clusterf*** What I would not want to see is Russia and China joint up and reforming their militaries and start emulating Western concepts like the NTC and Redflag. There are some cultural and other factors that might inhibit this but not completely out of the realm.

Many of the commentators writing articles in major media outlets are the same ones who were cheer leading the US into invading Iraq in 2003 so I take what they say with caution. They are the same crowd who advocated for aggressive US expansion after the fall of the Soviet Union. Long discredited by the results of their push to spread democracy at the barrel of a gun, they now using this opportunity to push for aggressive US posturing. They have an agenda they are once again trying to push. Caution by the US is warranted. In 1951 after initial North Korean invasion, the US pulled off the Inchon landing and the US euphoric at the turn of events and got aggressive moving North. Then China stepped in. Right now China is embarrassed at Russia's performance and indicating they would prefer a negotiated settlement and restraint. They have also indicated they want to avoid being sanctioned. Watching the reaction of average Chinese citizens on the street, most indicate they don't approve of the invasion and side with the Ukrainians, but also of note is if Russia was attacked then China should help Russia. We're in the Cold War 2.0 and one of the features on the Cold War was proxy wars. No matter how this ends we're probably in for a long period of more proxy wars...

Unlike the west/USA Russia doesn’t have dedicated Wild Weasel squadrons or train pilots for the SEAD missions. That has lead many to conclude why the Ukraine ADA network was not eliminated. There also seems to be a shortage of targeting pods. Given the striking incompetence shown by the Russian military, there ability to collect and disseminate targeting data and do accurate BDA might be lacking too.

Russia is offering oil and other resources at heavily discounted prices. India is said to be considering taking up Russias offer. However as noted by many like China getting the resources to buyers may be difficult. There is no pipeline to move large amounts and the distances through large sections of undeveloped areas is vast. Moving oil on rails would not be ideal and via water is also a problem due to ports being iced in.

Not only that but Putin just made it next to impossible for Xi to contemplate taking Taiwan by force as the political, economic and military climate of the West was changed by Putins action. I watched a video on average opinion of a Chinese citizens on the street and all said Putin made the wrong decision, and this is between Ukraine and Russia. China should not get involved. The only way China should get involved is if US/NATO attacked Russia.

China abstained from the condemnation vote and refused to supply spare parts for Aeroflot. Find it hard to believe they will send military support.