db_zero

We're in a new world. Putin won't stop till he wins or get offed. Even if he eventually loses there is going to be serious damage to the global economic system. On a personal level you better be prepared for higher gas prices, higher food prices, recession, potential loss of job, stock market volatility to name just a few things that are probably going south. This couldn't have happened at a worse time. Unless this war stops soon-and I don't see that happening the damage economically and the suffering like starvation and chaos in the less developed world is going to be great, perhaps catastrophic. Even if Ukraine wins, its not going to be quick so the economic damage is something we probably can't avoid. The absolute worst case...we all know what that is. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan where 1% were affected while the other 99% went about their lives unaffected, this war is going to hurt everyone one way or another.

Any world governing entity run by humans will always be flawed… I can’t recall who it was but one official who was key in the 2003 invasion of Iraq made a candid remark years afterwards to the effect that if he wasn’t an American official he’d probably be on trial as a war criminal IIRC.

We live in the age where you can manage vast distributed computer networks remotely. These weapon systems are controlled by computers and software and it’s no secret that weapon systems are linked to surveillance assets via secured datalinks. Just do a search on AWACS, TR1 JSTARS and side looking synthetic aperture radar and decide for yourself.

I’ve heard estimates that Patriot batteries would entail a 9-12 month training package to learn how to operate and maintain them. This is probably in a similar time range. This would need some sort of targeting input as well as the links to feed it… I have to wonder if it’s possible to get targeting data from a NATO aircraft hundreds of miles away feed it to the missile battery and when ready the Ukrainians manning the batteries push the fire button…

From what I can tell it sounds like the T-90 was largely sent to Siberia and few in the Western region so it would make sense few have been seen so far. A report that a call went out for older reservists to volunteer to go to Siberia, along with the call up of 60,000 reserves means they could be headed not to Ukraine but to Siberia. The active Siberian troops along with their T-90s could then be sent to Ukraine. Since China and Russia are on good terms it would be a small risk to send regular Siberian troops already on active duty West. Going to take a while to rail them West.

While everyone is debating whether tanks are dead, the Ukrainians who started the question are asking the west for as many as they can send. If they had the time to learn and absorb M1s they would gladly take and use them.

That is true but depending on the agent it could be binary-meaning its inert until ready for actual use- I don't know if Russia uses binaries. It could also be delivered on long range missiles from deep inside Russia. In any case when has Russia cared about its troops? If a few dies from unfortunate events who cares?

Russia and Syria have used gas recently in Syria in cities on civilians. Its can't be 100% discounted. As I mentioned Putin just doesn't care. While the recent screw ups and incompetence of the Russian army is legendary, they aren't that stupid to not learn from their recent mistakes. As the saying goes past performance is no indication of future performance. You can bet those survivors of the recent fiasco have learned lessons the hard way and its prudent to expect them to apply some if not all of the lessons learned.

Gas could be in the form of incapacitating or sleep agents. During the battle of Hue city Viet-Nam the US used tear gas extensively in the urban fighting. The VC didn't have gas masks. I guess it was not a violation of the Laws of War at the time. Don't know what the current laws of war view the use of non-lethal agents on the battlefield. I doubt the Russians will use chemical weapons, but its already been reported the US has sent detectors that give warning. I would think that if the Russians were serious about using chemical weapons some preparation and great care would be needed to handle the munitions and it would be detected. Looking back at reference material there are a number of agents the Russian use and their effect and duration can vary. Weather plays a role too. Gas was used in Syria recently. Maybe the Syrian volunteers have past experience operating in the space. While I doubt the Russians will use gas Putin is the sort of person who just doesn't care.

I just watched a news report that openly said Ukrainian soldiers are now in the US training on use of Switchblade drones. I was shocked as I would think you would keep this low key. Now that raises question of what else they are being trained to use. I guess congressional action reviving the Lend Lease Act of WW2 has opened the floodgates to Ukraine.

I’ve heard a few geopolitical wonks say this-the best strategy is to bleed out Russia in Ukraine. I think Zelinsky knows this and obliquely says this but can’t be too blunt cause he doesn’t want to bite the hand that feeds him. The danger of American fatigue is very real. There are a lot of unfilled wants domestically and to see billions siphoned off overseas is going to cause great stress. Add that to increased defense spending and rising interest rates will cause interest on existing debt to increase. I think the idea of a Marshal plan for Ukraine is wishful thinking. The tax rate to pay off WW2 and Marshal Plan was over 90% for the top bracket and there is already a huge fight brewing over proposed changes to taxes with the predictions it will lead to current party in power getting shellacked in November. Food shortages in the third world is going to cause great unrest and higher food prices in the developed world. We already have high gas prices. Next up is lumber and concrete. Already home builders in the US have problems getting basic materials. When Ukraine starts rebuilding they’re going to consume an enormous amount of lumber, concrete, steel and copper just to name a few.

Video from “Russia and Russian Military” expert on Russian performance. He states Russia can no longer achieve its political war goals, best they can do is achieve military goals…

What the highly acclaimed movie “As If I Am Not There” based on true stories if you want to see the uglier side of war. As much as I’m fascinated by the social media war and videos I ask myself if I’m watching a form of snuff films… It already being discussed how social media and the fascination with people dying seems to be a popular topic.

You’ve basically been correct and consistent. I’m more cautious and questioning. Too many times in life I’ve been right and on a roll and doubled down with all the indicators pointing to continued success, only to have it blow up in my face so I’ll always try to look for some flaws in reasoning and why things will not go the way I planned for or expected.

I don't know what the kill rate was during the 1991 Gulf War but what you're asking for seems even higher than the Western coalition pulled off in 1991

I watched a video and the reason why they had just pull tabs was the assumption the bottle would be consumed in 1 setting...

Blockade would be an act of war. China would be subjected to the same sort of sanctions Russia is being subject to and China is more integrated into the global economy than Russia, so it would be far more damaging. The risk/reward of just blockading Taiwan doesn't seem worth it to me, but who knows.

The yearly alcohol consumption rate of Russian men was 3 times higher than Western males and a good portion of that was spirits which has a higher alcohol content. Does appear to be a difference between Russian males and women. Women appear to be less indulgent.

IDK...as I've said in the past when I look at what's presented in front of me I would have to come to the conclusion Russia is done...but then I think of what Russia had endured and how the Germans as well as the West thought Russia was done in the opening phase of Barbarossa and how the West got many things wrong when this war started and I have doubts. As for Putin wants things wrapped up by VE day, might that be a view seen through a western bias? In the West having a war wrapped up by a major holiday-especially a military oriented one might be desirable, but in Russia maybe not? When the war with Hitler was going badly in the first year with Germany, Stalin insisted on having a military parade IIRC. Many who study Russia and know far more than I do have commented that sanctions are going to have less effects than we think. The Russian economy is geared for war. I'm sure the Germans were shocked at the Russians packing up entire industries and moving them East. Putin by some accounts already views this as a total war against the West. People learn to adapt to hardships. The Russian have been known for stoicism.

Ruble collapsed in the 90s. There were shortages. Productivity dropped. Doesn’t sound like good times to me.

The lack of efficiency and corruption in the Russian military and society in general has been discussed in detail. I have to wonder what the role of alcoholism plays. The diet in Russia is lacking in fruits and vegetables and high in saturated fats. The death rate from alcohol related causes is off the charts. If you do a search on alcoholism in Russia the stats are staggering. There have already been stories of Russian troops alcohol abuse when stationed in Belarus and the reports of looting in Ukraine looking for booze and the behaviors of drunk Russian troops. I would not be surprised if toxicology tests were done on dead Russian soldiers would show many were under the influence when KIA. Vodka has an interesting history that I never knew about. Its was once a huge money maker for rulers and tightly controlled.

The MLRS would be well suited for this sort of fight. We don't know what the west is sending besides whats already been mentioned. Apparently both the West/US and Ukranians are not disclosing the full inventory of weapons. The other possibility? Maybe a phony war. Russia threatens additional offensive action but just sits back and a long stalemate takes place with no cease fire or peace agreement. Then the West will have to support Ukraine economically sending billions a month while their economies slowdown and slip into a recession with inflation on food and energy skyrocketing.

I'm aware of this. China would have a hard time getting more Russian energy anyway, not only because of shipping insurance rates, but also because of a lack of facilities that can handle supertankers. It would have to be loaded on smaller vessels then off loaded to supertankers at another port so really its not very feasible and from what I've heard the existing rail-line between Russia and China is already running at full capacity. Its Europe that's buying Russian energy. Right now energy is already stretched and there is no excess supply. Oil and natural gas prices are already at high levels. The US is releasing oil from the strategic reserve and Europe is probably going to do the same. If Europe stopped buying Russian energy and started buying on the open markets prices would skyrocket even more.

That is true but people are still buying Russian energy and that money is going somewhere. China too sets its own exchange rate for the yuan. The Russian population has an older population that remembers living under the old Soviet Regime and the bad times of the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I'm skeptical of economic sanctions. Iraq, Iran and North Korea have survived them.

Russia ruble rebounds and Russian energy exports increase. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mocked-rubble-biden-russia-ruble-193615066.html