db_zero

As the old saying goes “he who has the gold makes the rules” The US has already made the Russian tank force obsolete. it’s been put on notice for some time that if your Russian tank force comes in contact with a well trained and motivated western armed force expect catastrophic losses.

Drones are easy to shoot down and still rely on guidance that can be jammed. Tanks aren’t going anywhere. They will change and evolve, there will probably be a mix of manned and unmanned tanks. In a rapidly changing environment humans can still process act and adapt faster than any AI so that is going to be a limiting factor on any unmanned system and any sort of remote control is going to have vulnerabilities. I’m not buying the infantry armed with missiles have become omnipotent when the Russian Army has demonstrated the complete inability to conduct reconnaissance or capabilities to suppress infantry. In most cases they are probably not attempting either. They have also demonstrated a remarkable tendency to stick to the roads and stay bunched up. The lack of secure communications and coordination is also shocking and a huge factor in why they can’t suppress missile infantry and are suffering huge losses. At a higher level ask yourself who is the overall theater commander? There is nobody which means higher level assets are not being properly used or coordinated. You match a well trained army vs a predominantly missile armed infantry force and you’re not going to get the results we’re now seeing. It’s a huge mistake to draw a few conclusions about weapon systems and effectiveness when there is a whole lot more going on and a bigger picture of incompetence going on. This whole belief that missile carrying infantry is now omnipotent ignores one huge factor. The Ukrainians are not being killed or suppressed. Once that starts happening human instinct to survive takes over and people become more cautious.

If the tank goes away as some predict then will armies just use IFVs? They will need something to transport infantry that protects them from artillery. Those IFVs will be even more vulnerable to ATGMs. I think too many are drawing conclusions based on the utter incompetence of the Russian army. Keep in mind the Russians have a different philosophy when it comes to armored vehicles. They are cheap and mass produced designed to be used by poorly trained conscripts. Using auto loaders means 1 less crewman to save personnel costs, but that also means 1 less person to stand guard or do maintenance. The use of an auto loader means ammo is stored in a way that means and penetrating hit means the tank blows up and nobody survives. Their IFVs look mean and intimidating, but are rolling coffins. They are death traps. Russia doesn’t have an economy that can afford an army equipped with a modern tank like the Armada and they would need to have a cadre of professional soldiers to operate and maintain them, not conscripts. As mentioned the same sort of argument that tanks will soon be gone came up after the 73 Yom Kippur War. I still have magazines covering that raging debate from the 70s. 39 years later… The same debate also took place after the Falklands war regarding SSMs and ships. They will come up with some sort of countermeasures. Aside from what’s already out there we may see something like a mini CWIS system that uses something like the metal storm system. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see gun systems like the main gun have capability to shoot down incoming missiles. Right now the Paladin system is being tested with a shell that has anti-missile capability. Some mentioned the loss of a few M1s here and there. It’s not like we’re talking tens of dozens or hundreds at a time. You’re going to take losses here and there. No system is invulnerable and there are going to be times you are forced to use tanks in situations that are not optimal.

A small town bands together to stop the Russians

Correct I was referring to the smaller version… Besides the lack of secure coms does anyone know if a Russian LT actually has the authority to call indirect fire? Not that it matters as it seems like they would need the cell phone number of the artillery crew… Once again the complete incompetence and ineptitude of the Russian operation is simply beyond comprehension. I don’t think anyone had any idea of just how bad it would be. The question now is will the Russians learn and correct their mistakes and with sanctions can they? Or will they just rely on brute force and nukes in the future.

I agree tanks aren’t dead, nor IFVs. What will replace them that will provide infantry protection from artillery? Aside from the mentioned Russian poor coordination, and combined arms, it’s also been mentioned that nobody really knows who in charge? It’s like 3 separate armies on 3 separate fronts doing their own thing and neither is coordinating with the Air Force which itself is off doing its own thing. The switchblade drone has a range of 6 miles. The Javelins range is 3 miles. The small Switchblade has a 40mm grenade charge. Who wins that duel? The Merkava was and may still have a mortar on it. No reason why you couldn’t mount a Switchblade or 2 on a tank or IFV to hunt down ATGM operators. Another huge weakness that I haven’t heard much regarding the Russians is piss poor reconnaissance of the battlefield something the US and Western armies excel at. Many of the ATGM and tank hunting infantry operating at will with little or no interference from Russian forces would face a much different opposition from well trained forces that conduct proper reconnaissance and use indirect fire, snipers and other means to suppress and kill tank hunting infantry. It only takes killing some before word gets around and effectness drops. Unlike the Russians the US/Western armies have good secure comms, JTACs, FACs (another aspect that seems to be absent in the Russian military) and ability to call down quick and effective fire from things like mortars, Paladins, MLRS, attack helicopters, drones and aircraft, before even sending vehicles into ATGM kill zones.

Watched a BBC report. Poles are enlisting into the military at a high rate and across Europe enlistment is up 7%. Also speculation that a large multinational European force once proposed but never really acted upon may become a reality. A few think eventually Germany may become a big military power again….

IMO has zero effects. The sanctions and threat of siding with a pariah nation has far more effect. Look at China. You think they could care less about siding with a war criminal? No it’s the threat of sanctions and cutoff of trade with the west that is keeping them at bay. Russias economy is tiny and even if China went full bore in trading with Russia it would be just a fraction of trade with Europe and America. People who know Putin the best have mentioned he will become more dangerous if cornered. If he was a leader that didn’t have nukes that’s one thing, unfortunately he has plenty of them. Maybe Putin is bluffing and has no intentions of using nukes if cornered, but if he’s not…

Correction-Looks like the US has formally declared Russia has committed war crimes. Good political theater, but I don't think it was a smart move. Now Putin has nothing to lose. I think we better hope that someone or something internally deposes Putin and from what I've heard -which is not going to be 100% reliable, the odd of Putin being offed or overthrown is very minimal.

Unfortunately Germany is caught in a bind some of which was the result of Merkles policies of trying to win over Russia with trade-obviously a grave mistake in retrospect. Problem now is shut down the energy imports and risk a recession or worse and this is at a time when you're trying to increase defense spending dramatically.

Interesting I've seen reports that something like 93% of the Belarussian people are against getting involved and the army is dead set against it and that's why they aren't moving in. They also said the Belarussian people know and like Ukranians. and have zero desire to fight them. Getting an accurate feel for how people as a whole feel about things is difficult enough in an open society. In a closed society its even more difficult. I watched a report last night from someone who is very knowledgeable about Russia and Putin and wrote books on him and from the sound of her it sounded like the majority of Russians are in favor of the war, because that's what state media feeds them and that's pretty much all they've known... At this point who knows who to believe.

Based on current events I would like to see the Command and Control mechanics present in the original CMBB revisited. Perhaps making it difficult if not impossible for Russian non-elite units to break down into separate components like the Italians in CMFI. Adding Chetnik forces and security forces that will shoot fleeing units… While making it realistic might make it unbalanced and turn some off to playing the Russians, I think many of us would enjoy the challenge. Could also add option to turn off Russian restrictions.

The performance, efficiency and effectiveness of the Russian army is beyond comprehension and by definition the Chinese military is suspect. How will one model them after this fiasco is beyond me… In the original CM BB there were mechanics for Russian command and control issues. You may need to add units that shoot fleeing soldiers to boost morale. In WW2 the Russians used penal battalions. It was mentioned that people arrested for protesting the war would be drafted. Will we see a return of penal battalions? Well if nothing else the Russians and China put on the best parades. I even saw a blurb that Putin didn’t care about the number of men lost as he was upset at the number of vehicles lost as it means no parade this year. Wonder if this guy is in Ukraine right about now…. https://youtu.be/0rAHrHd2lcw

If we don’t blow ourselves up soon then the future is going to usher in some wild advances, quantum computation is one. AI is another and crazy stuff like Elon Musks experiment with implanting micro chips onto human brains. Science fiction becoming science fact…I’m old enough to to remember watching Star Trek and saying those communicators are cool. We now have them- it called the smart phone. When I bought my first board war game I thought-it would be cool if this could be done on a computer… On another note there seems to be a mad rush to monetize this war on social media. People who never had an interest in the military or war are now experts… There was an earlier post about the experts and their predictions before the war and how they’ve been wrong and why do we listen to them… IMO it’s about getting your name out there and name recognition. Doesn’t matter if you’re right or wrong. If you’re name is known you’ll get invitations to speak at events and monetize your expertise. Also the defense companies and probably their stocks are going to be quite profitable. Countries are going to spend more on defense and the supply of weapons will need to be replenished. Also fertilizers will become more expensive and scarce and the wheat shortage not only means more expensive food but starvation in many parts of the world potentially leading to more wars and unrest. The US military may be very busy for the foreseeable future.

It also lacks a strategic layer and operates in a vacuum. Decisions like war or any other major decision is made in the presence of many other people with competing views. Groupthink, organizational politics and a wide array of other factors come into play. Look at the interaction between Putin and his head of his spy agency before the war and he was asking for opinions… I can only imagine the reaction in a group decision when the head hancho asks Mister X for his opinion on why he thinks a war will go this way and the answer is “it’s based on a computer simulation”. I love CM and computer simulations in general but I wouldn’t base serious life decisions on them.

I agree with General Berger as well as former Sec of Def. Gates who commented on the limitations of computer war gaming and simulation. It’s easy to pat yourself on the back weeks into the fighting and you know how to plug in the variables to get a result close to what’s really happening. Try doing that before the shooting starts and make life and death decision… Same thing goes on in the financial industry. They have clusters of computers grinding out potential outcomes before they happen and are consistently off the mark. In either case it doesn’t stop people from trying, but in the end it has been demonstrated that monkeys throwing darts do better at predicting.

I’ve heard that officers and NCOs can no longer leave the army. I’m going to guess that conscripts will soon be told their 1 year enlistment will be extended indefinitely, if that hasn’t already happened. They risk of them returning home if this war continues and them spilling the beans is too great.

Watched an interesting interview with General Berger and he said if you put all of this into a computer analysis it would come out as a Russian victory, but computer models cannot accurately predict the human element… No idea what the end game will be. This war started because of 1 man and will end when that 1 man decides he’s had enough or that 1 man is deposed of , or that 1 man decides to take actions that potentially will end life as we know it on planet earth. There is a religious element to this war, that is way beyond the scope of this discussion and not appropriate to discuss here, but does seem to play a significant role.

We can make all the military and political analysis possible, but if you listen to those who have studied and know Putin the best it comes down to a man who has risked all on this venture. He is more dangerous when cornered and will grind Ukraine to dust and doesn’t care how many Ukrainian or Russian soldiers die in the process. If they are correct in their assessment then it’s a very scary prospect. Sounds like a situation where there are no good options just a range of bad ones.

This is a good report about NATO expansion and shows recently de-classified documents. While it is true no explicit treaty was signed, its a bit more complicated and easy to understand why a mis understanding and interpretation can happen. I also believe it’s very important to understand the PNAC which came into being in the 90s and it’s belief in “Benevolent Hegemony”. This was at a time when Russia was weak and China was not the economic and military power it is today. Take a look at the players in the PNAC and the role they played after 9/11. It would also help to look at some of the documentaries of how US banks like Goldman Sacs operated in Russia after the Soviet Union fell. Putin has maintained that he asked President Clinton if Russia could join NATO and the response was less than enthusiastic. Put everything together and it paints a different perspective. Putin himself by his aggressive actions didn’t do himself any favors so it’s easy to see why playing the victim card does didn’t win him much support. This is a very complicated situation and has many grey areas and isn’t so black and white. Caught in the middle of all of this is Ukraine

It’s a message to the West. You have your Patriot missiles, ABM batteries and naval forces - (many US ships have the Aegis system with ABM capability)… we have a missile system that renders your ABM systems useless… could also be a message to Ukraine-the west can’t protect you and the next one may be a nuke. Whatever the message is, Russia would not lob one of these for no reason. This launch was undoubtedly detected and tracked by US early warning systems and probably got some very high level people woken up.

We can go back and forth about NATO this NATO that but it’s not going to get us anywhere. What’s done is done…Ukraine is more than likely not going to be a NATO member now and perhaps never. Question now is will this be a long drawn out affair or will there be some sort of settlement. Looking like this is going to drag on for some time, Ukrainian cities will continued to be pummeled and civilians suffer.

I never was a fan of NATO expanding East as given Russia’s past it would be viewed as threatening. Once Putin invaded Ukraine all that went out the window and the conduct of the war which has been accurately described as a 20th Century style of warfare being waged in 2022 with cities being flattened is not acceptable, but honestly Putin did the same in other places and we just ignored it.

Interesting analysis of Russian logistics, trucks and tires from someone who knows a thing or 2. Interesting take on corruption, use of wood in Russian trucks and why Russians are moving slowly.

I saw a report and the headline said rally was attended by tens of thousands. https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-hails-russias-special-operation-133458957.html I seen figures that up to 40% of people in Russia rely on state TV for most if not all of their information and they tend to be older. Seems that there may be a generational gap on a number of issues in Russia. The sanctions the West is imposing will impose a much greater cost to the younger generation and they are apt to be more restless about Ukraine, plus the fact they are in prime cannon fodder age group. There is a flight to flee Russia and that will create a brain drain. Waiting to see if Russia imposes restrictions on leaving the country.