Probus
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Posts
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Days Won
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Posts posted by Probus
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Wow! About to cross the 6000 post mark. That's a lot of messages to catch up on if you've been gone for a couple weeks!
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Regardless, we have seen a few people ask "how do you know it is going bad for Russia?" "are we in an anti-Russian echo chamber". Well maybe but none of those possibilities above are very good for the Russians at all, and all signs of things that should not be happening as widely as they are.
Yes. We are definitely in an anti-Russian echo chamber here, but I believe much less of one than most places you can go on the internet. I would encourage posting of both Ukrainian and Russian losses and victories here so that we can see both sides of the coin (unless this really upsets our Ukrainian friends @Haiduk @kraze and @Kraft. If they can stand it then go right ahead and post them).
The only thing I don't want to happen is political arguing or anything that will derail the thread. Technical arguing, strategic arguing, for sure, but we have to leave the politics out and try to figure out what exactly is happening on the ground to the best of our amateur armchair general abilities. Some much less amateur than others.
If I misspoke or forgot something, please chime in @Battlefront.com and @BFCElvis.
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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is the important thing to focus on. Regardless of what you two Capitalist Dogs think about who should be commanding them and how to rank them for targets, the point is that RUSSIA should value these assets and ensure they don't get zapped, not to mention abandoned. And yet they are not. We've seen quite a lot of bridging scattered on the roads of Ukraine so far, Russians obviously rank them far lower than you two do
Steve
+1 (I wish you had an upvote button Steve
)
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3 minutes ago, Ultradave said:
Better news on the nuclear power plant front. Power is restored to Chernobyl. IAEA's biggest concern seems to be the overworked and isolated staff, with some maintenance being neglected. On the good side, safeguards information is being sent to the IAEA from everywhere except Chernobyl (again, a reminder that the safeguards being mentioned here are not reactor operation but concerned with the safeguarding of nuclear materials from illicit diversion)
Dave
@Ultradave, you know a lot about nuclear power. You don't happen to be a nuclear engineer?
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1 hour ago, Kraft said:
Incredible combat footage from inside a BTR-4. Close range street fighting against T-72 ? and BMP-1 + dismounts in Mariupol with autocannon.
That is some intense footage @Kraft ! Can you tell if that was folks watching a replay on the screen or actual live footage as it happened? Pretty scary.
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1 hour ago, Artkin said:
This is from the first scenario of Shield of Kiev wtffff
Great find! Battlefront/Elvis confirms it.
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@Battlefront.comSteve,
I created a quick battle to just play a bit of what is currently going on. Some things I noticed we need to add to CMBS DLC pack:
- Ukrainian drones.
- Varied western AT weapons for Ukraine.
- Varied western MANPADS.
- Captured Russian equipment.
- Heavier personal armor.
- Ukrainian irregulars.
- UKR Foreign Legion with light and heavy weapons.
- Russian "V", "Z", "O" etc... markings (that would make a good mod).
- Trucks that immobilize themselves because of Chinese tires.
- Equipment that either randomly break during the game or start out with down systems.
Engine Updates?:
- Remote firing SKIF (if doable in the engine).
- New advance command whilst reversing.
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Farmer's tractors?
Also Many new "Road" or convoy based maps/scenarios.
Just to name a few...
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23 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:
Expected, but a bit silly. Everyone knew that if US/EU seized Russian assets in the West, Russia would retaliate by seizing U.S./EU assets in Russia and based on publicly available data, Russia could compensate most of its financial losses that way.
Its the leased aircraft fleet that gets seized that is worrying to me.
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I’ve seen many posts of Ukrainian infantry armed to the teeth with AT weapons. These guys would be considered heavy infantry at this point?
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NATO Exercise COLD RESPONSE close(ish) to Russian Ports in the Artic.
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29 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Maybe v1 has not had a 100% success rate, but v2 looks promising.
I'm convinced that the design of a T-90 = T-80 = T-72 = T-64 = T-62 = T-55 with a few cardboard boxes taped to it for looks.
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34 minutes ago, Fenris said:
This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of afv's being taken out. Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!" Whatever that means.
Had a go at it. Found an online site that stabilized videos. Maybe a bit better:
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12 minutes ago, Fenris said:
This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of afv's being taken out. Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!" Whatever that means.
Can someone motion stabilize this footage please?
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2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Probus, I must respectfully disagree. Russia is going to attack NATO over this? and trigger article 5? He already said sanctions are an act of war and did nothing. Attacking NATO in any way means NATO airpower can smash the mass of his military power while it's strung out on roads in Ukraine. He aint doin' no such thing IMO.
I really hope so @danfrodo
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For reference.
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55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
We have avoided talking about the Dragon on this thread but maybe it is time to broaden the discussion. I personally think that the only real potential “winners” in this war are NATO and China. NATO has just gained what it so badly needed, relevance. Unless we are talking a total collapse of Russia, NATO will have a job out to the 22nd century thanks to Putin.
China is the other potential big winner. This war will likely push Russia into Chinas orbit-ack the historical trust but in order to have a semblance of an economy, Russia will swallow all that because, money. That puts all of Russia’s resources in Chinas hands, as we just cancelled them, and for cheap. This will continue to feed Chinas massive ambitions with the means to do it. My thinking is that China is many things but normally they are not stupid, so a overt military action could totally screw up the good deal they are staring at for now good reason. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is not a existential emergency for China but also like Ukraine we do know nations are very capable of acting irrationally. So I think it comes down to a question of China remaining smart and quietly making major gains while we get all scope eye on Russia and Europe.
Well said.
8 minutes ago, db_zero said:A no fly zone over Ukraine is not just about the risk of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft.
The Russians have sophisticated SAMs like the S300 and S400 that would have to be suppressed. These sites are surrounded by mobile and static anti aircraft positions that would also need to be suppressed.
The long range of the S300/400 and the overlapping nature of a layered air defense network would mean NATO would also have to suppress positions in Belarus and Russia itself.
We’re talking a major escalation. That’s why it’s completely off the table.
A no-fly zone is off the table... right now... but what I've been trying to say is that stealth technology makes destroying these S300/400s less relevant. From what I understand (and hopefully is the reality), F-35s and F-22s could enforce a no-fly zone and stay well out of harm from these weapon systems, even at 10%, 5% (, or 1%) of their rated kill ranges. Am I missing something? "Ukranian" forces can take out some of the more pesky air defences in Ukraine.
But again I want to re-iterate that Russia will most likely see this as provocation enough to hit NATO forces with missile strikes in the very least. And we don't want this turning into WWIII.
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39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I think what has changed is the BMD equation. I have no idea what the US has been working on for over 30 years but the thanks to NK, the ability to hit incoming ICBMs is no longer zero in the US (not sure about the rest of the West). And what had to be keeping Russian leadership up at night is just how high above "zero" that number is, because it breaks MAD when it gets high enough. We do know it is not 100% ability to stop nuclear attack or there would be NATO involvement in this war, and it would likely be over.
@The_Capt, Have you seen this doomsday submarine, the Belgorod, that was undergoing sea trials last year? Carries the Poseidon nuclear powered, nuclear tipped torpedo:
http://www.hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpedo.html
http://www.hisutton.com/Spy Subs -Project 09852 Belgorod.html
Also Sub Brief:
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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Physical illness has been suspected for some time now as one of the possible reasons Putin has been so physically isolated from others. It doesn't make matters better for a dictator when, under stressful circumstances (which existed before the war) people think you're physically weak.
This is also one theory about "why now" for this war. If Putin has something that is either going to for sure kill him (e.g. terminal cancer) or likely to be so debilitating that he is ousted (e.g. Parkinsons) this might have been his only chance. Given his obsession with Ukraine and how it continually thwarts his schemes, this is psychologically consistent with Putin.
Steve
If this is the case, do you think Putin's generals will blindly follow his orders to use nukes or chemical weapons?
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The younger NATO crowd may be a bit afraid of Russian nukes, but for us old time Cold War 'Vets', him rattling his nuclear sticks at us does not scare us. I grew up in the 80's with the larger threat of USSR nukes hanging over our heads every day. He can threaten his nukes, but we all know that if he uses them it is a death sentence for him. He has no desire to die, just stay in power after his obvious huge mistake. Nukes wont get him any closer to that goal.
What worries me is WWIII, admittedly, after Russia's poor showing in Ukraine, I'm not too scared of his Mighty land forces. But apart from a few countries in NATO, it would seem that NATO also has 'let dry rot eat at their tires'. Especially Germany. So again the USA will have to carry a large part of the burden and I don't think the USA really wants to do that right now. If Putin starts serious ethnic cleansing, the USA will be forced to act (by its people). But we really don't want to be dragged into a war with our current administration (*cough*Afghanistan*cough*). My friends who are officers in the military, while outraged at Putin, don't want to start WWIII.
Just keep those arms flowing into the Ukraine and let the feisty Ukrainians beat the tar out of the Russian invaders. The sanctions are going to eat Russia alive over the next few months if he doesn't let up.
As far as a no-fly zone is concerned (I agree this could cause WWIII). But WHY is no one talking about how stealth will effect the enforcement of a no-fly zone? Think about it. If the Russians can only see our stealth aircraft at best 10% of the range (I'm thinking closer to 1% now) of the current air defenses, then we can sit back and shoot Russian planes and helicopters out of the sky with impunity forcing Russia to ground its air forces very rapidly. Red flag exercises have shown just how effective our F-22s are. There would be no need for SEAD missions and we've had 2 weeks+ to plan our strategies and coordinate our forces. Although there is always going to be risk with even a stealthy no-fly zone, I think the main risk is expanding the conflict into WWIII.
Just my 2 cents.
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
That is a wonderful way to put it!
Maybe the Russian military should have hired us as consultants while making their invasion plans. For sure if they had presented the plan they used we would have given them our professional opinion on it. Which would have been, "looks good to us! Don't change a thing!". OK, I admit that wouldn't be very professional.
Steve
Ha! Steve. Naughty, naughty. That would have been somethin’. I don’t think Putin is very open to taking advice. We may find out, after this is all over, that he had his hands in everything the military did, much like some other infamous leaders.
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If 75% of Russia’s conventional forces were on the Ukrainian border before the invasion (which is the main reason I thought Russia would invade in some way) does that give Putin 25% reserves? Or does Russia need those forces for internal and eastern regions?
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23 minutes ago, sburke said:
The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates.
Lol.
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32 minutes ago, THH149 said:
Now if we had a CM RUW 2022+ released in like the year 2030, then that would be a different story.
With the level of interest Steve has shown in this war, 2023 might be a better estimation. Hopefully with the title CMBS2 - The Downfall of Putin.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
TU-95 doesn't fly high enough to get out of the range of Stingers and Starstreaks, as I understand it. Prolly the higher it flies, the less of a bombload it can carry. Plus Russian arty should be able to rain down that kind of destruction, if they haven't run out of rockets in Syria.