Seedorf81

In the Ukraine-thread the importance of state of the morale of an army/nation at war was discussed. Concensus seems to be that it can be vital.
Before the Hamas-attack a whole lot of Israeli's had doubts about the way their government treated the Palestine-situation. The repression, the illegal settlements, the nazi-like (yes, use this phrase on purpose) ultra rightwing-orthodox philosophy and more, made even veteran soldiers and pilots start doubting, and even refusing, their orders. So morale wasn't very good.
But now? Like the Ukrainian morale after the Russian invasion; a collective ruthlessness and self-sacrificing total determination.
Hamas had it's "victory", but it may be the best example of a Pyrrhic victory we have seen in a very long time.
 
 

In the Ukraine-thread the importance of state of the morale of an army/nation at war was discussed. Concensus seems to be that it can be vital.
Before the Hamas-attack a whole lot of Israeli's had doubts about the way their government treated the Palestine-situation. The repression, the illegal settlements, the nazi-like (yes, use this phrase on purpose) ultra rightwing-orthodox philosophy and more, made even veteran soldiers and pilots start doubting, and even refusing, their orders. So morale wasn't very good.
But now? Like the Ukrainian morale after the Russian invasion; a collective ruthlessness and self-sacrificing total determination.
Hamas had it's "victory", but it may be the best example of a Pyrrhic victory we have seen in a very long time.
 
 

In the Ukraine-thread the importance of state of the morale of an army/nation at war was discussed. Concensus seems to be that it can be vital.
Before the Hamas-attack a whole lot of Israeli's had doubts about the way their government treated the Palestine-situation. The repression, the illegal settlements, the nazi-like (yes, use this phrase on purpose) ultra rightwing-orthodox philosophy and more, made even veteran soldiers and pilots start doubting, and even refusing, their orders. So morale wasn't very good.
But now? Like the Ukrainian morale after the Russian invasion; a collective ruthlessness and self-sacrificing total determination.
Hamas had it's "victory", but it may be the best example of a Pyrrhic victory we have seen in a very long time.
 
 

This is kind of the same logic that terrorists use when killing civilians in Europe and USA.
 

Reminding me of Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result.  "Hamas" in various guises have been committing atrocities for decades, and Israel tries to deter the next attacks by ever more military shock and awe.  Meanwhile the death toll mounts among the innocents.
Hopefully the carrier task force will deter any more insanity in the region.  There are plenty of nut cases wanting to pull more triggers.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141?i=1000630880366
Eliot Abrams and Steven Cook discussing the Israeli/Hamas War(tm). There is lot of stuff we have gone over, and one potential blockbuster. One of them says there is a video, of one of the atrocities and taken by Hamas, in which he claims one of the terrorists is speaking Farsi. I haven't had time to hunt the video down, but both of these guys a very senior former U.S. government officials. Neither of them has any reputation for being crazy that I am aware of. Proof of one IRGC member participating in this mass atrocity would be significant. Actually it would probably be seismic. 

Here is the thing, Hamas just started a REAL WAR. Hamas has never fought a real war. Even the master class they just gave in terrorist atrocities was not a real war. They have no artillery, no meaningful medium or high altitude air defense, and no strategic depth at all. Israel will take a lot of casualties from mines, drones, IEDs and the general ugliness of urban fighting, but Hamas can't just STOP them the way Ukraine has stalled in those truly massive minefields, backed up by huge quantities of artillery and MLRS, including MLRS that can refill breaches in minefields. Not with the Israeli Air Force being willing to drop buildings wholesale. 
Hamas has withstood some police actions, and some punitive strikes in the past. Unless i am seriously mistaken this is going to be a completely different thing.

Dutch journalist visited Svalbard recently..
Svalbard/Spitzbergen has a population of about 2500 souls, Norwegian mostly, but there are about 350 Russians there. And about a year or so ago their consul was replaced by a figure that is being deemed an FSB-officer. And for the first time ever a Russian parade was held. (Believe it or not, about 5-10 trucks and about 20 snowscooters, all waving a huge Russian flag. Absolutely ridiculous.) And a Russian orthodox priest was flown in to bless a newly erected statue/momument/thingy that has Russian Nationalist "meaning".
Non-Russian inhabitants fear increasing trouble with/from the Russians and worry seriously about the total lack of Nato/Western security/military presence(!). Also a very unusual flight from a plane with 50 or so Russian "workers" was scheduled to arrive shortly.
Also noted was the change in behaviour from the Russians that worked/lived there after the arrival of that new FSB-consul. No more interactions with the Norwegians, and staying mostly in the Russian enclave.
Was that cable-disruption coincedental?? Don't think so.
 

Dutch journalist visited Svalbard recently..
Svalbard/Spitzbergen has a population of about 2500 souls, Norwegian mostly, but there are about 350 Russians there. And about a year or so ago their consul was replaced by a figure that is being deemed an FSB-officer. And for the first time ever a Russian parade was held. (Believe it or not, about 5-10 trucks and about 20 snowscooters, all waving a huge Russian flag. Absolutely ridiculous.) And a Russian orthodox priest was flown in to bless a newly erected statue/momument/thingy that has Russian Nationalist "meaning".
Non-Russian inhabitants fear increasing trouble with/from the Russians and worry seriously about the total lack of Nato/Western security/military presence(!). Also a very unusual flight from a plane with 50 or so Russian "workers" was scheduled to arrive shortly.
Also noted was the change in behaviour from the Russians that worked/lived there after the arrival of that new FSB-consul. No more interactions with the Norwegians, and staying mostly in the Russian enclave.
Was that cable-disruption coincedental?? Don't think so.
 

Dutch journalist visited Svalbard recently..
Svalbard/Spitzbergen has a population of about 2500 souls, Norwegian mostly, but there are about 350 Russians there. And about a year or so ago their consul was replaced by a figure that is being deemed an FSB-officer. And for the first time ever a Russian parade was held. (Believe it or not, about 5-10 trucks and about 20 snowscooters, all waving a huge Russian flag. Absolutely ridiculous.) And a Russian orthodox priest was flown in to bless a newly erected statue/momument/thingy that has Russian Nationalist "meaning".
Non-Russian inhabitants fear increasing trouble with/from the Russians and worry seriously about the total lack of Nato/Western security/military presence(!). Also a very unusual flight from a plane with 50 or so Russian "workers" was scheduled to arrive shortly.
Also noted was the change in behaviour from the Russians that worked/lived there after the arrival of that new FSB-consul. No more interactions with the Norwegians, and staying mostly in the Russian enclave.
Was that cable-disruption coincedental?? Don't think so.
 

Dutch journalist visited Svalbard recently..
Svalbard/Spitzbergen has a population of about 2500 souls, Norwegian mostly, but there are about 350 Russians there. And about a year or so ago their consul was replaced by a figure that is being deemed an FSB-officer. And for the first time ever a Russian parade was held. (Believe it or not, about 5-10 trucks and about 20 snowscooters, all waving a huge Russian flag. Absolutely ridiculous.) And a Russian orthodox priest was flown in to bless a newly erected statue/momument/thingy that has Russian Nationalist "meaning".
Non-Russian inhabitants fear increasing trouble with/from the Russians and worry seriously about the total lack of Nato/Western security/military presence(!). Also a very unusual flight from a plane with 50 or so Russian "workers" was scheduled to arrive shortly.
Also noted was the change in behaviour from the Russians that worked/lived there after the arrival of that new FSB-consul. No more interactions with the Norwegians, and staying mostly in the Russian enclave.
Was that cable-disruption coincedental?? Don't think so.
 

This is what I wrote yesterday (in the wrong placed Israel-thread), but still think it is valid.
 
Hamas just now announced that they will publicly execute one hostage for every next (air?land? both?) attack on Gaza.
I fear that the Israeli army high command and the majority of the cabinet already realize/fear/accept that the hostages will die anyway. (They won't say that out loud, obviously.)
Hamas poked the bear, even gave it a real bloody nose and they probably can hurt the bear even more, but it still is a bear.
Israeli gloves are off, and I fear it's going to be much more bloody murder on both sides.

I am not even saying they could deliver an indigenously produced weapon by any means except a suicide bomber in a plane or truck. I am saying that if I was was the Iranian government, and I wanted to do something besides getting Gaza turned into a parking lot, this is the moment I would do a nuclear test. We have just had a brutal lesson that our intelligence is not as good as we think it is. The odds the Iranians have enough fissile material for a couple of tests at least seems rather high. 
And yes withdrawing from the JCPOA was incredibly stupid, but Trump did it. I think there is a pretty direct line from that decision to the current disaster in Gaza.
The assumption that Russia would never , EVER hand out a few nukes was a really good one two years ago. I think it is a much less valid assumption now. We still don't REALLY understand the planning and supplying of this operation. The fact that we don't understand it, and had ZERO warning ought make us question a very great many assumptions.
Edit: and I think the Iranians doing a test would probably get Gaza turned into a parking lot much faster than it already is. But one assumption I think we can make with very high reliability is that the the Iranians care any more about what happens to thePalestinians than Putin cares for the lives of mobiks from anywhere outside of Moscow and St Petersburg. Actually they probably care less, if that is even possible.

It will be (is, already) an unimaginable horror for the families of the missing/kidnapped persons, but the rest of the Israeli's might have the opinion that after a 1000 people being butchered, there can be no more talking with those who executed and organized the attack. Even if it means the death of all the hostages.
Hamas may have created a united and resolute Israel that we haven't seen in decades. I suspect we're gonna find out what an almost fully mobilized Israeli army can achieve when they're in full-revenge mode.
But, alas, things will only escalate from here on. The division between "Israel and The West" and the Arab/Muslim world will only get worse.
Just the huge difference between reactions and emotions on western news (CNN/BBC) and non-western news (Al Jazeera) is shocking. In the West there is horror, disbelief, and condemning of the brutal attack. And mostly empathy for Israel.
But the Arab/muslimworld has a very different outlook. There is a tendency to almost disregard the Hamas-atrocities, because lots of people are absolutely convinced that Israel deserved that. They mention "the West"'s hypocrisy on the Palestinian issue and the horrible way the Israeli's treated the Palestinians for 75 years.
There is an insurmountable difference in beliefs. Whether the Israeli's "destroy" Hamas or not, whether they occupy Gaza or not, whether they give up the illegal settlements and free all Palestinian prisoners or not, it won't bring peace.
It's not a happy conclusion, but it seems to me that it is a neverending horrorstory.
 
 
 

This is what I wrote yesterday (in the wrong placed Israel-thread), but still think it is valid.
 
Hamas just now announced that they will publicly execute one hostage for every next (air?land? both?) attack on Gaza.
I fear that the Israeli army high command and the majority of the cabinet already realize/fear/accept that the hostages will die anyway. (They won't say that out loud, obviously.)
Hamas poked the bear, even gave it a real bloody nose and they probably can hurt the bear even more, but it still is a bear.
Israeli gloves are off, and I fear it's going to be much more bloody murder on both sides.

A lot of western politicians greatly over-egg the whole "death to..." thing. It's a common rhetorical flourish in Iran, and if there's one thing that Iranian culture is known for it is over-the-top rhetorical flourishes. If you ever take a taxi in Tehran, and the driver say to you that you were such charming passengers that there is no fee for the taxi ride, he isn't being literal. It is just the first move in the game of tarouf where people try and out-do each other in comically over-the top generosity and politeness, before eventually settling the bill as expected. Very little in Iranian dialog is to be taken literally. 
So there are crowds on the streets (when the government asks for them) shouting "Death to America" sure, but during some economic protests there are also plenty of people shouting "Death to Hizbollah" (due to the amount of money Iran was spending on supporting Hizbollah and Syria, while economic conditions for normal Iranians were bad), and "Death to taxes" (and even "Death to traffic" due to congestion). It's just a colloquial phrase for expressing disapproval, not to be taken literally.
Of course, the Iranian leadership are not fluffy bunnies, and are quite willing to get thousands of people killed in pursuit of minor political aims. And they'll quite cheerfully export death and murder, and (like everyone else) do whatever they can to improve their military and access to the most powerful weapons they can. But honestly, they're not trying to destroy the west (or the world) in some apocalyptic frenzy. They are mostly trying to become the dominant regional power and defend their own security (remember the Iran-Iarq war?), whilst trying to navigate the millenium-plus old Sunni-Shia divide (which has given the Shia, understandably, a lot of sympathy for the underdog and the victims of a double-cross), and defend the Shia populations in other Arab countries.
China also ins't trying to usher in the apocalypse. Their primary goal is to not have their economy be subject to the whims of the US Navy. China depends on maritime trade from its east coast (despite the best efforts of the belt and road initiative to create alternative routes overland to Asia, Africa and Europe). And the reality is that that trade only exists at the forbearance of the US Navy. China doesn't want to have to depend on American good will for its prosperity. It wants to have a strong enough navy (or at least enough area denial capability) and enough control over the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia) that it is the power that gets to decide what can sail in the south China Sea, not the US. It wants to be able to guarantee its own naval trade access and coastal security. Of course, that pretty much guarantees conflict with the US, Japan, Taiwan if they try and push that capability (arguably Indonesia and the Philippines would be more amenable to political solutions in the event that the Chinese navy was genuinely competitive with the USN in deep water). 
Russia at the moment is the odd one out - they don't seem to have any rational goal that corresponds to reality in any meaningful way. They just want as much non-Russian territory under their control as possible to act as an expendable security buffer, but have chosen an approach that is achieving the opposite of that.
But these countries aren't working together to some common goal. They are each pursuing their own goals, and using 'friends of convenience' where it happens to align with their own goals.

It this kinda goofing (the cyber thing) that tells me that there was no master plan- bunch of come latelies trying to cash in on news cycle.  Hamas went and made a mess because they are Hamas and want attention - and they are going to get it.  As dramatic as the action was, it was not decisive.  Israel has not lost strategic option space, they have gained it.  Typical Palestinian strategy of crushing enemies by burning your own house down.
As to the war in Ukraine, I mean sure there could be secondary or tertiary overlaps but any “master plan” by Russia is laughable considering how badly they screwed up in Ukraine.  As you note they may have some GRU goons pretending to be players but that entire region is like holding a skunk with a firecracker up its *** in the manipulation department.
Humans abhor uncertainty - most humans anyway - and we tend to invent patterns to try and make sense of it all.  Sometimes it is just another crappy day in the Middle East.  As to impact on this war, well I suspect they will be treated as separate issues for awhile but politics are the Playing Fields of Angry Ignorance at the best of times, so we will have to see.

Israel uses guided long range weapon, Hamas and Hezblla have only AA-guns and some MANPADS. The same now in Ukraine - Russians launched manufacturing of gliding kits for dumb bombs, turning them into JDAM-ER analogs, so Russian aviation now after almost 1,5 years of pause now again have opportunity to struck our forces and objects with bombs and remain unreachable for our AD. I think our Patriots defend Kyiv and some logistic centers (or airfields) in western part of country and command doesn't want to risk moving them to cover frontline. We had two examples of Patriot usage against Russian aviation - an ambush, when over Russian territory ere shot down several planes and EW helicopters and one Su-35 was downed over the sea. But since no more such successes.   

In Ukraine, both sides have modern integrated air defence systems,  with MANPADS, short range air defences, and longer range systems all the way up to patriot / s-300 / s-400 systems with huge ranges over 100km. They have the operational depth to locate these systems 10s of kms from the front line to help protect and conceal them. They have integrated radar systems, an air force with interceptors, and (to an unknown degree) at least potential access to airborne and space based intelligence gathering systems.
In Israel, one of the sides has this (more or less), while hamas has no air defences beyond whatever manpads they've managed to smuggle in past the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, and a territory that is a few km wide at its widest point, and an opponent that started from a position of such military superiority for decades than any attempt to build a meaningful air defence system (in their tiny territory) would be detected and destroyed long before it was even marginally effective - assuming they could even find a route to get a significant system in theatre without it being intercepted. Hard to smuggle an s-300 through a small cross-border tunnel...

Damn mosquitos...
 

And this is where I stop listening.  "Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty.  Sure.  By who?  Bigfoot?
They were!
"May 1990: Gorbachev and Bush Meet at Camp David and Washington
Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met in Washington and Camp David in May 1990. They signed a key elements agreement for a strategic arms treaty, a chemical weapons reduction accord, and a trade agreement reducing barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. They also concluded several other bilateral accords to increase cultural and scientific exchanges, and maritime and air links. In addition, the two leaders discussed the topics of Lithuania and German unification. Following the summit, President Gorbachev journeyed to Minneapolis to meet local business leaders. The next day, he met with former President Reagan in San Francisco before returning to Moscow."
https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm#:~:text=Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met,barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce.
Hey, you want to paint some nonsense Grampa Simpson rants on how this war you are in is all the US/West's fault - go for it, see how far it gets you in sustaining international support. 
Oh and you totally got me with that picture:
  


Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...must be why we forced Ukraine to sign the Ottawa treaty.

Since no one else is listening to Steve about Israel....
I am pro-Israel.  And I am pro-Palestinian.  Meaning they both deserve to live & have a state & have rights.  In my crazy mind Palestinians and Jews are actually all....people.
The attack:  I hope the crazies had fun.  All that will come of this is Israel killing over 10x the number of people it lost, taking land, and becoming more entrenched in hatred.  Like the bus bombings of 20+ years ago, which utterly destroyed the Israeli peace movement.  While great fun for some imbecilic radicals who think they actually achieved something, it will do nothing but bring death, misery and more poverty to the people these idiots claim to represent.  And Netanyahu loooooooves this.  He gets to be big daddy protector now, and he'll pound the hell out of whatever he thinks he needs/wants to in response to this.

What Haiduk posted seems to be only the tip of the iceberg. Social media is full of really really terrible pictures and videos. I can't even imagine how Israel will react and how far this will spread in the region. 

Abkhazia, separist region Georgia, made deal with Russia for permant navy base. (In the Black Sea, that is.)
Otsjamtsjire was Russian navy base during Sovjet-Union period.

I thought this could be of interest to this forum:
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/10/05/maak-kennis-de-m113s-die-door-ons-land-worden-gemoderniseerd-om/
It is in dutch (video report is dutch/french), but auto translate does a decent enough job.
The topic is the refurbishing of M113's (bought from Italy) by Belgium for use in Ukraine.