BletchleyGeek

That is a good one. Very depressing to play. You can choose, how you want to survive and how much compassion you can spare on others. Sobering. 

I keep thinking about the video posted yesterday of the Humvee leading an assault on a village, .50 cal blazing and AT4s popping off. This is exactly what tanks were designed for. Have the Ukrainians discovered that light vehicles are just as good or are they making do with what they have because tanks can't be everywhere?
 

"юродивый"  =  "holy fool"
(chiefly Eastern Orthodoxy) A person, often associated with gifts of prophecy and insight, who publicly acts as if mad or stupid, but whose madness is seen as concealing an inner sanctity for the purpose of self-humiliation. 

Back to the "Is the tank dead?" question.
My answer is "No, but it depends on who has the tank and who they're fighting" and goes back to a post I made in May regarding whether modern military technology favors the defense.  Modern military tech favors the side that has it.  
If you have a bunch of tanks and you're facing an opponent who has at/over the horizon "if you can detect it it's dead" ATGM capability, the tank is effectively dead - you have to basically have infantry go through the hard way and clear everything (and really *everything*) to the range of the defender's ATGMs.
If you have tanks and all your opponent has is LOS RPGs, you can use your tanks more or less the same way you'd have used them in CMBO - combined arms infantry support role, and tank on tank in some environments.  Especially if your tanks have both modern sighting/shooting capability and modern RA and APS to defend from RPG fire and the occasional ATGM.
We've gotten to watch this in Ukraine.  On Feb 24 it was an almost symmetric technology situation: Russia and Ukraine were both equipped almost identically with old Warsaw Pact stuff and its descendants, with a big dose of modern ATGM and drone technology on the Ukraine side (some of which is Ukrainian - I saw some good ads for the Stugna-P).  Russia started with bad tactics and assumptions and was stopped quickly by a lot of 1 shot/1 kill ATGM activity, with virtually every UA squad carrying multiple modern ATGMs. Plus TB-2s with IR guided ATGMs.
Now things are turned around and Ukraine is on the attack.  Something that has stood out to me is that the Ukrainians are  still willing to ride in on top of their armor and race in on wheeled vehicles after the events of the last 6 months.  I take that to mean that while on paper Russia has ATGMs at least superficially similar to the Stugna P, in practice they're not widely distributed - certainly nothing like the proliferation of Stugna/NLAW/Javelin in the hands of the UA.  So when the UA put a dozen tanks on the front, along with a bunch of mounted infantry, they could actually execute combined arms attacks because they had confidence that they wouldn't lose all the tanks (and their riders) in the first 20 seconds.  They still have to deal with RPGs, but if they're unguided they're low accuracy at longer ranges and have to be fired from ranges where light arms/MGs can suppress the operators.
This war is really showing the relevance of asymmetries in capabilities.  It started out as close to a modern symmetric war as you could have: two former Warsaw Pact countries with essentially the same equipment and training, and really that was the situation in 2014.  Mass won in 2014.  Ukraine started breaking the symmetry in 2014 by getting western training to modernize the way they fight. They managed to contain the Donbas action and use it as a way to improve the training and experience in their of their active and reserve military.  Russia didn't.  
Fast forward to 2022, and we saw the improved strategic and tactical capabilities of Ukraine at the start, combined with the added asymmetry of 3 ATGMs for every tank in the RA, and gigabytes of ISR.  Ukrainian forces disappeared into fog and started melting the initial Russian attack.  We never really saw a lot of massed Ukrainians, but they hit the Kyiv/Kharkiv front hard enough that Russia was forced to withdraw.  And from there the asymmetries have grown - western governments developed confidence that Ukraine could win and started pouring in resources for both immediate use and long term development - material, training, ISR.  And sanctioning Russia, so the RA has become more and more desperate for equipment, falling back on older and older stuff, expanding the asymmetry in the other direction as Russian capability deteriorates.
So the tank is fine if your opponent doesn't have a bunch of modern ATGMs, and hosed if it does. So if it's UK/Sweden vs. the US, the tank is dead.  But the same is true for just about anything - does a particular capability create an asymmetric advantage?  It all depends on who is facing who.
 

Well first off I am very wary of western analysts declaring anything "settled" in this war considering how much they got wrong in the first place.  By their metrics of tank-power Ukraine should be a puppet state of Russian by last Apr.
So I am curious as to how the tanks have been essential or have been employed.  For example, "15 tanks did the break in battle at Balakliya", that is a single Company, so what/how were they integrated into a break in battle that was kms wide?
It is not so much that the "tank is dead", it looks more like its role is evolving.  Nothing we have seen in this war looks like it was supposed to wrt mech and armoured warfare - so here we have a successful breakout battle and I am still not sure how it was integrated into it.  And then there is "what the hell happened with RA armor?", but by this point I doubt the Russian can keep theirs in gas, let alone in combat.
And then we have this Light Infantry/SOF breakout, unless some of these maps have been wrong.  We wont answer it here but the most dangerous thing we can do with this entire experience is validate pre-existing biases and promptly ignore all the other weird signals.  Especially when the validations might be the weird signals, not the main.

It is really interesting from an operational surprise point of view.  How the UA managed to do operational surprise in this day and age - even given the poorer RA systems - is beyond me.  I am wondering if they went lighter for reasons of lower profile and logistics load?
Well I guess things will become clearer in time.  Let's face it, we are going to spend years unpacking what actually happened in this war.  

Is he going to apologize for his abysmal Phase I or Phase II analysis/predictions?  No, no, we are better than that...take the highroad, it is a win for everyone.

Ya "leash" is a bit insulting.  The US does not work that way, at least its military as far as my personal experience is concerned.  A leash insinuates that Ukraine is somehow the pet or under control of the US and the West.  The reality is that these sorts of operations are one long continuous negotiation.  The US has likely expressed some "red-lines" that it is not comfortable crossing; however, things would have to get pretty bad before they started threatening to pull support.  If the UA decided to make a drive for Moscow for example, that may do it...maybe.  As to the military objectives in-country, the US and the rest of the west have largely been...guns? you want guns...we got guns....training?  How many?  ISR?  Here is the most we have ever put up and out in the history of warfare.
Think stakeholders not shareholders. 

These are the key questions right now with respect to RA re-establishing some sort of line other than the Russian border  - "Can they?", "Where?" and "When?".
I suspect they can, plus the UA will need to reset at some point, their logistical system is also being strained by success.  But remember this entire week is a result of months of slow but steady - and highly precise...getting that dig in - attrition of the entire RA operational system.  Once again the UA, thru the use of deep strike capability combined with what I am sure is a historic ISR suite, has projected an enormous amount of friction on an already pretty badly shot up RA (I suspect losses in Phase I were on the high end of estimates).
This form of corrosive warfare - combined with some of the best IO I have ever seen - does not disappear, the RA system has cracks, bad ones that do not magically disappear if Putin declares "full mobilization" (the boogy-concept of this war, right next to WMDs).  It takes a military months to re-tool the damage caused by sustained HIMAR strikes, which really acted like an ersatz air superiority.  Russia's big mistake, likely the biggest of Ph II was convincing itself that it was still the attacker.  I am giving a special shout out to @Hapless here as he called this way back in Aug - the UA offensive had started with the deep strike-thru-firepower manoeuvre way back in Jul. 
As the effects of this precision strikes campaign accumulated the RA system got weaker and weaker.  However, they did not pull back to more sensible and defendable positions - not one step back!  And still tried to convince themselves, and the world to some extent that they were leading this dance.  Ukraine did a brilliant campaign of negative undeciding Russian offence, they then initiated a double offensive operation which has left the RA in null decision paralysis, and are now damned well creating positive decision all over the freakin place.  The trick was seeing that initial campaign for what it was - it wasn't desperate defence of the Donbas, although it may have started out as such, it was the beginning of this whole thing.  
UA will likely culminate at some point, Russia will dig in and try and pretend this was a planned withdrawal or some BS.  But the UA has solved for operational offence...done, and we have been waiting for that since March.  They can do it again, likely faster and better equipped.  The RA is reeling and its reserves are qualitative garbage.
And then there is the other question...how long can Putin hold on in the face of all this?  This is looking a lot like 1905 again, and that did not pan out so well for the czar and led to that basement in the Urals.  

If you see a white crossed vehicle, it's an Ukrainian one. 🇺🇦💪

If you see a white Z vehicle, it's a fleeing russian one. 🏳️🌳💥

And if you don't see anything... It's the 3AK counter-attack ! 😁🤦‍♂️😂

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

I am personally looking forward to see how many reputed experts claiming that "looking at the tactical, open source intelligence details obfuscates the big picture", that also have completely failed to even imagine this Ukrainian operation was possible are going to try to somersault into the position of "having called out this all along". It baffles me that one can construct a - true to reality - "big picture" without taking into their consideration any data at all.
I found the video of the Ukrainian soldiers singing their national anthem quite poignant. A country whose "national music" goes well to the tune of the violin deserves to be free and prosperous.

Reportedly just before Khakriv offensive.

Steve,
Your premise seems to hinge on me not fully understanding the need to relentlessly curb stomping of the russian war machine, in all its constituent parts, into submission - well beyond Ukraines borders of 2013 and the capacity of it threatening any of its neighbours.
I can assure you that notion is completely unfounded… 
The thing is, that at the same time I genuinely believe that “we” are fighting for certain values. Values that does not really include the unnecessary degradation of human beings (that definitely being everyone of us). 
My point here, in the forum context, is that he did’t post that video, made into a meme, on this forum. “We” did that. And what does that say about us? 
That said, I have zero interest in a prolonged discussion on this point. I love the thread and follow it religiously for all it gives. It really is a haven of sanity and life-affirming absurdity.
Please consider my post a soft voice, whispering in your ear as we roll along the colonnades on our triumph.

hmm

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 
Looking into the abyss and all that… 

I understand what you're getting at, but maybe using 'genocide' in that specific context isn't your best play?
I also feel that stealing land from one country to give it to two others while evicting the legal occupants is probably not a great way to maintain the moral high ground or credibility.
 

"A Ukrainian child holds a fake rifle as he mans an improvised checkpoint in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, September 8, 2022. JUAN BARRETO / AFP"

So, again, do not get too focused on the tactical here.  The UA currently looks like it is balancing two simultaneous operations at either end of the front, one in Kharkiv and one at Kherson.  They are seeing gains in both and look like they are balancing resources to each of them...at the same time.  This is by no stretch "basic competence" for any military, to the point that  I highly doubt 3 out of the 5 EYES militaries could pull this off right now without a lot of prep time - and even the UK may be stretching it.
C4ISR, logistics - especially transport, force generation and projection and deep strike are all being coordinated at a high level between these two operations, and they look like they are doing very well.  No more "oh but the Russian's suck" on this one, what the UA is doing is on the upper end of difficult for any military, let alone one that has been in a meat grinder over the summer.  The last time the west did anything even remotely like this was Gulf War (Iraq 03 was a single axis), and we had air supremacy and it still took months to pull off, and we were not being attacked the whole time. 

Russia had one shot at this sort of approach and they blew it in about 72 hours back in Feb.  They had enough horsepower to attempt 5 major axis of advance that got very good penetration, just went nowhere meaningful.  They did not figure on this weird dispersed hybrid omni-defence Ukraine put up, which eroded their axis in about a month.  I think estimates of just how broken the RA was after Ph I were low-balling significantly because the RA never was capable of more than single a axis mass pressure after that down in the Donbas.  My guess is that they got so badly mauled in Ph I that single axis 100m at a time was all they could do...while some in the west freaked out and treated like some sort of "turning point".
Now in Ph III, I would not get too focused on where the main effort is, or is not, at this point because the main effort is likely wherever things are working.  This is brilliant stuff the UA is doing, really professional work.  I was impressed at Kherson as they had linked deep strike with a tactical attrition approach (fog v snow) that is clearly making gains.  Then they had enough in the tank to do a simultaneous attack back at Kharkov all the way on the other side of the line.  Both attacks threaten to bag/cut off large quantities of RA and have possibly gripped the Russians in what I refer to as a null decision space.  The RA has a dilemma that it cannot likely solve - its capabilities are too shot up, its logistics hammered, its C2 is divided and uncoordinated, and its ISR is last gen.  So how does the RA solve a two front attack?  It likely doesn't and just digs in and holds on and does local flailing - no decision is a decision.
This means the UA can shift the main effort based on conditions it has set.  It has all the ISR and can see the RA stress in high resolution so it can bounce between the two poles with transportation infrastructure that still works (another complete Russian strategic failure in pre-conditions setting) and hit the RA where it "ain't good" to largest effect.  If they do this right they may bagging both operational objectives.  Tempo and timing on this are brilliant, they have some real talent in the planning backfield on this one.  The RA is getting bounced around like a ball between cat paws, which causes enormous stress to their entire system, which was not world class to start with.  The fact that the UA had the depth to even try a competent double simultaneous operation is a clear sign they are damned healthy.
Mud starts in Oct-Nov?  So they have at least a month to play this game out, I expect that the RA system will buckle somewhere by then.  I swear to gawd if the UA now pulls another rabbit out of the hat and drives right up the middle and takes Melitopol this thing might be "over by Xmas" - but I really try to avoid saying that phrase as it has a lot of bad historical baggage.  My guess is that they will not, but will continue to hit lateral LOCs as the RA flails around trying to play Dutch Boy to stop the bleeding.
I can only hope this shuts up the "Ukraine is doomed" crowd for a good long time.  Broken, barely holding on militaries do not wage operations like this - they behave much more like the RA in response to them.     

The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 🤔