hcrof

Small quote from civilian analog of Girkin regarding Kaliningrad blockade
 

Of course, like in USA, for example, inside our authorities "pigeons" and "hawks" also present. "Pigeons" are not pro-Russian (pure pro-Russian politics now either fled or lurked in the shadow), but they would want to stop the war as quicly as possible. "Pigeons" will advice president to renew negotiations, when Ukraine will achieve some significant success on battefield, when "hawks" will advice to fight until as minimum we reach 24th Feb lines or better until we libarate all terrirories. Society is mostly on the side of "hawks". 
Gerashchenko, the man of Avakov (he is not only former internal affairs minister, but 2nd-level oligarch) is not pro-Russian, he is just a man of corrupted system in police.
Who is portrait current situation as "losing" and "betrayal" are political opponents of Zelenskiy - followers of former president Poroshenko. Bot networks and public opinion leaders, hired by Poroshenko constatly shared usual hate on each event, tied with Zelenskiy. In their eyes he is "traitor, maloros, clown, puppet of Kolomoyskyi and Yermak, who signed secret deal with Russia in Oman about gradually surrendering of Ukraine to Russia" and "Zelenskyi handed over southern Ukraine to Russia and was ready to hand over and Kyiv too, but he didn't expect that army will be resist" . On their opinion only Poroshenko now secretly managed all diplomacy and maintained support of western countries (even lend-lease and British NLAWs before a war), and Zelenskyi only makes self-PR. They believed Zaluzhnyi and army just make war on their own, ignoring the wishes of Zelenskyi to surrender. Some of them openly write they would be glad if Ukraine lose or remained without westren support, only for "73% of green debils, which elected pro-Russian clown were punished". But this is real clinic. 
On other hand we have the same bot-farm and public opinion leaders, hired by President's Administration and in their writings we can find out that Zelenskyi is a greatest political figure of modern times (like and followers of Poroshenko), how under his wise leadership Ukraine prepared to war and is getting support from all western world, how our army is winning day by day and the victory will be soon (this is duty of Arestovich).
So, Ukrainain inner politic showdowns and intrigues, alas take place even in this time... 
  

Big propaganda mistake - In Russia famine as a tool is strongly associated with Nazis due to Leningrad siege legacy. Margo publicly admitted that RU uses famine as a tool just like German Nazis. Good Job, Beaver head!
If I would be InfoOps guy I would hammer RU regime supporters mercilessly with this tacit admission of RU Nazism. They can run but they will not be able to hide from Nazi label from now on.  
 

Wanted to come back to this one as well.  I think we are muddling some issues here:
- Cost.  A strategic issue that many countries are wrestling with but a UAV with a Stinger was what I was talking about to deny manned aircraft and here the cost is upside down for the traditional manned aircraft.  Counter-drone, or drone-v-drone warfare needs a new set of cheaper weapons, which they will be because they don't need the same HE payloads to bring down...finding and hitting them is the primary issue.
- Unmanned warfare.  We are coming up to 120 days of this war and drones are not going anywhere.  In some areas it looks like Russian EW is cooking the sky enough to cause problems for everyone - I would love to see how many EW emitters have been hit.  A shooting drone-v-drone war is going to last a lot longer than a "couple of hours". Why?  Because if you run out of drones in a couple of hours and your opponent has not, you are basically screwed, this war has demonstrated that trend.  Unmanned systems will not be a niche layer we rub on the old one, that once "shot away" allows us to go back to the "good old fashion", there is too much competitive advantage in these systems.  So rapid production and deployment of unmanned systems (of all types), integrated across the depth of the battlefield is going to be a primary driver.
- Good 'ol CAS.  It brings payload and range, I will give it that.  However, it is big and visible - stealth may help but I do not think modern Stealth is built for the ISR environment we have found ourselves within.  So even if you manage to destroy an opponents UAV AD layer, which will not be an easy ask, you still have ground based systems in depth which is what the Russians are facing right now.  Those MANPADs are only going to get smarter, more lethal and able to hit higher.  This is likely why the Russians haven't found "air gaps" on such a large frontage, MANPADs everywhere means there is really no gaps unless you make a major push, which could get very expensive very quickly.  Back to cost, time is a resource as well and one can produce cheap lethal unmanned systems much faster than modern manned military aircraft.  I argue that it will go the other way...manned CAS/Strike/Air Superiority will rain down for the first couple hours - or basically get left sitting out - and then everyone will be relying on unmanned systems.
I keep getting the sense that the big powerful predators of the battlefield are in trouble.  And it is integrated small cheap nasty bite-y little things that are hurting them.

Murz published clarification regarding recent video of UKR platoon running away. I will not put video here as it is just light platoon of UKR guys running away (for RU guys reading us - your army was founded by a guy who managed to ran away from Germans like through the half of RU before being forcibly stopped). It was celebrated by Murz as a glimmer of hope. Bright clean spot on RU pants full of crap [sorry, got very emotional reading Murz].
The video is not important, but Murz clarification is. Girkin (and many others) criticized Murz that video is bad as it shows UKR running away without Ghost [Murz related battalion] arty interfering and killing them once and for all. Murz responded with clarification describing what was really going on.
As I can see from other sources it is a more or less typical platoon-company battle at Donbass and will give feel of current fights.
 

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel
 

Interesting detail of 1 phase fighting.
[EDIT] Civilian surveillance systems is something that for sure needs to be taken in to account when fighting in the cities.

Fresh Assessment from Girkin
Take with grain of salt. He might make mistakes. I might make translation mistakes. 
Summary - RU Donbase offensive is ending. The battle finished in a Draw slightly tilting to UKR side. He expects a pause in Donbass (implying RU forces). A new RU offensive is coming in between a week and month and half but definitely before autumn as RU political leadership cannot tolerate current conditions.  
 

Fun story (might be photoshop but it still funny) about what RU business is really thinking about the situation. As you might know recently there was so called Internation Economic Forum. It's where main RU sicko was talking about usual sick RU stuff.
One of the biggest RU business media groups RBK had stand there. This is the photo of that stand with charade.

It supposed to say RBK is about: Business but for Russians it literally says RBK is about [how everything is] F*CKED UP

Some details from Murz regarding the recent UKR strike of Red Ray ammo warehouse.
 

This dude, Ken Rhee, is a former ROK Navy SEAL officer and is a minor celebrity in Korea. He’s starred in a TV show taking other celebrities and putting them through tough military training (this is a popular genre in Korea). He returned to Korea recently after injuring his knee in Ukraine and is facing criminal charges. After the war kicked off in February the South Korean government put a travel ban on going to Ukraine for ROK citizens.

Ukrainian resistance in Kherson сonducted attempt on mayor of State penitetniary service Yevhen Sobolev, the chief of local correctional facility №90. He betrayed Ukraine and of own free will maintained deployment and food supply for occupation forces. IED was placed on the tree and activated, when the traitor drove in the car nearby. Despite on recently claims of Sobolev's death, he just got heavy injuries of legs (some sources say about amputation). His driver wasn't injured
 

I believe we are missing Crimea water problem. The Invasion of 2014 was not as successful as it might seem. RU failed to capture the land bridge and thus failed to ensure water supply to Crimea. The result was ecological catastrophe in slow motion.
So, Putin had very real pressure to start a war with Ukraine as soon as possible to capture at least enough UKR land to ensure water supply. And if you are going to war why not to try to capture whole things? Military reports they can defeat UKR resistance in couple of days. So, all out war for quick regime change is better than limited invasion with unclear exist strategy. 

About training of LPR conscripts:
 

Translation:
On Luhansk direction so-called "reservists" and volunteers are trained during 4-6 days. They practice shooting with AK, SVD, RPK and AGS. But how! Without zeroing the same AK on 100 m range! Radios - are new R159, produced in 1985 [likely means new, not-used radios of Soviet times from storages]. No any words about cohering of units. But before sending to frontline they have solemn prayer service. As a result, on of "barses" [joking name of conscript battalions derived from "BAtalion of ReServists"], even not engaging, lost diring the march 3 KIA and 8 WIA because of IEDs explosions. And since a week was disbanded because of 15% irretrivible losses and the same number of refuseniks, incuding their commander.
We were different. Several days they have been gazered a group of mobilized and volunteers in HQ company [probably of regimnet]. All this time all combat training there was bulkhead of rotten potatoes. Then we were dressed, giving out, what was in storages and not in size [in UKR army we often have the same problem, so soldiers or their families often buy own uniform in size like reserve]. Then we were moved to Rubizhne. There novices spent 2-3 days in the rear on chores and night duties as "watchers". Then all were sent to 1st and 2nd lines - to the front. Concerning the firing pravtices, starshyna said us: "checj your rifles and shoot inside the yard on thst 9-storey house. We three went out and shot per a magazine each. Through five minutes on positions of our neigbours started a coomotion - they tought enemy diversion group sneak here and there is a battle in the rear"    

And another rant - Murz reaction to RU notion of UKR imminent defeat. 
[QUOTE]
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have lost most of the modern modifications of the T-72/90 and most of the BMP-3 fleet since the beginning of the SVO. More than a month ago, the crossing near Belogorovka showed not only the monstrous situation with the incompetence of the command in some places, but also that the Russian Armed Forces are already fighting with the second or third sets of equipment, which consist of the same BMP-1, which the Ukrainian army is now receiving from Eastern European allies. Moreover, the APU has chances to get more modern equipment in the near future to make up for losses, but the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Corps of the LPR NM have no chance to replenish at the expense of modern products of our military–industrial complex - the military-industrial complex simply does not produce as much as it needs to be replenished, and it will not produce as much for a long time.
Therefore, the T-62 and BMP-1 are coming to the front from storage, and, for example, the radio navigation equipment on this technique is either rotted, or is missing, or is represented by R-123 tube radios, while the APU have a technology for installing digital Motorola and military-standard GPS receivers in armored vehicles.
For understanding, if there is now one fully combat–ready, combat-ready tank company out of three or four required by the state in one of the tank battalions of the LPR or DPR NM, then this is a record and a reason for pride. Moreover, most of the combat-ready vehicles are captured Ukrainian T-64s, because they are captured in a more tolerable technical condition than the own T-64s of the people's millionaires.
The same “fire brigades” are advancing from our side in these areas, assembled from the remnants of the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM Republics that have still retained combat capability.
In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM Republics, the situation with personnel, complicated by the mass of Russian refuseniks, is much worse.
What nonsense! How UKR came up with bull**** to teach someone… In our country, the mobilized are immediately thrown to the front. THAT'S HOW IT'S MEANT TO BE!
And, of course, there is no mechanism for the constant training of mass combat-ready reserves.
It has not been created, it is not being created and it is not known when this bright idea will come to the minds of the leadership.
Like Tyra, right? [UKR said they recently exchanged female civilian volunteer paramedic captured in Mariupol, accused by RU in war crimes]
By the way, our propagandists accused her of murdering a married couple with the aim of seizing children to escape from Mariupol [RU accused he in killing mother and kidnaping kids to pose as their mother]. That is, here is a direct visual war crime, for which it is supposed to be hanged. Still what? Or were they lying to us, or is it more important to exchange the son of our generals than to punish the murderer of civilians caught red-handed? Crippled separ[tist]s, who were lucky to survive in Mariupol, will appreciate this approach, I believe.
We also have this problem. How to “increase the production of UAVs" in conditions when all the optics for them came under even more severe sanctions pressure? No way. Similarly, the mass of positions in other industries.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, allegedly equipped with the most modern encrypted military radio complexes “Azart”, 250,000 rubles from the budget for one walkie-talkie, use Chinese radio stations “Baofeng” in combat operations, easily listened to by the enemy (2,500 rubles for a walkie-talkie).
Volunteers supply the army with optics, electronics, communications, thermal imagers and night sights.
In the units of reservists for three months of the war, the supply of even the most elementary things like the most primitive means of front-line medicine has not been established, not to mention the fact that reservists are fighting without normal means of individual armor protection.
Continue to Wait.
[UNQUOTE]

Interesting RU comment about rear echelon of enhanced LDNR Vostok battalion comparing to regular RU forces 

Sorry, but it looks like it is  not entirely true.
I do not know from where idea VDV keeps army in line is coming. Keeping army in line is a dishonorable job beneath VDV. It is the job of Rosguardia formations. 
According to RU talks Serdyukov was de facto relived right after ending Kiev battle. Now it is just formally arranged. They say Serdykov wanted to be a legend like founder of VDV Margelov and decided to press on for Kiev even after they realized UKR forces are not surrendering.
Almost all field commanders ignored him except 76th VDV Division. As a result the division got totally defeated (Divisional Recon company was destroyed). Those who talked with survivors got shocked for couple of days. Looked like guys were on edge of mutiny and Serdyukov got unofficially sacked.

It seems somebody somewhere reported that the island under firm RU control and cannot backpedal now. 
It looks like it is happening now in Donetsk area. Important RU targets are being hammered there now and RU looks like cannot do anything about. 
 

May I suggest that UKR exaggerates losses not for West but for RU to lure them to continue fruitless assaults? Keep going Ivan, you are doing great, hitting that wall with your head, ignore your head wound the wall is about to collapse... 

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion.
I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". 
If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest. 

Russian planes are flying very low to avoid long range air defenses like S-300. A Gepard is short ranged but quick to react to a low flying target so would probably be very effective in this context.

That is a very selective reading of the facts to justify his obvious position that Ukraine should just accept anything Russia imposes on them and the west should say sorry to Russia for opposing their unprovoked invasion.
I think it is clear to all that Ukraine is taking ruinous casualties and economic damage, but Russia is hurting bad too or they wouldn't be using t-62s and 1960s era "precision missiles". 
If Ukraine still wants to fight we should give them what they need. The russian state is a menace and crippling it is very much in the west's best interest. 

Had a spare time and checked interview of T-80 tanker from the tweet above and I think it is interesting.
Author:
— A question about the mobility of the tank: GTD [Gas-Turbine engine] – "hell for suppliers" or a thing? Are they reliable enough? Problems on the fuel march? Smooth running, shaking, acceleration in comparison with diesels. What are the main disadvantages of the T-80 BVM?
Tankman:
— It all depends on what role the tank group plays. As practice has shown, the speed of the "box" directly affects its survival. The T-72B and T-72B3 had very impressive losses during the battles in urban areas, while the group of the 80s lost only one tank in 3 months of operation.
Of course, serving mixed groups is hell for rear echelon, but there is no need for them [mixed groups]. In the later stages of the operation, the machines were used for completely different tasks. There were no complaints about the reliability of the machines, they withstood more than they should have. The movement on the T-80 BVM is much quieter and smoother, which made it possible to carry out lightning attacks.
The main drawback of the tank is an outdated thermal imaging sight on which any landfill makes excessive background noise, and high fuel consumption.
 
Author:
— Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42?
ATGM — a suitcase without a handle or a really useful thing? Is it really possible to implement the "long arm" [feature] of our tanks in the conditions of combat in the current theater of operations [Not sure what he means as usually long arm of RU tanks is barrel launched ATGM with range longer than NATO cannons range, but given answer from tanker he might mean indirect long range cannon fire to counter NATO ATGMs]? Have you ever used it? If yes, then the nuances, reliability, were there any failures of guidance and what is their reason? From personal experience: what kind of ammunition would need to be modified or created?
Tankman:
— There have never been more than 10 shells in the armor [means inside tank]. From the experience of fighting around Donetsk airport, I know what happens to a combat vehicle when it is packed to capacity with ammunition. When a shell from an RPG arrives from the building above into the commander's hatch,  the turret flies to the 3rd floor of the [Donetsk airport] terminal. Our counterparts decided to ignore this simple truth and were always packed to capacity, for which they were nicknamed among the [men of our] unit "lemming herd".
There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can.
You can, but it is difficult. It is extremely inconvenient to make a calculation in order to hit a hidden standing target (God forbid, also moving), and forces you to invent a bicycle on the spot, based on the terrain features.
Concrete-piercing types of weapons are urgently needed, taking into account the NATO guidelines for the construction of fortifications.
 
Author:
— Observation. Did you perform any tasks at night? How does the commander conduct surveillance at night? How did the sighting equipment manifest itself? At what distances, on average, was it possible to detect the enemy?
Tankman:
— Performing tasks in the dead of night by armored formations is effective only when working from closed [hidden] positions. In an ideal scenario, if a tank group is advancing to the assault, it is better to do it at 2-3 o'clock in the morning and reach the point of the beginning of the battle by dusk. The sighting equipment is outdated, needs to be replaced. But for the fight against the tanks of the USSR, although modernized, this is not critical. Thanks to the infantry and the coordinated work of "Akhmat" [I think he means Chechen battalion Akhmat], we always knew where the enemy was and how he moved.
 
Author:
— General awareness of the situation. Connection. Communication in combat with an infantry unit? Were automated control systems used (according to the ESU TK type) or all only through radio communication?
Tankman:
— I'm not disclosing the communication details.[It may be because Comms are always real embarrassment for Soviet/RU army]
 
Author:
— Tank duels? Or are tanks not fighting tanks (with)[It is RU historical meme which caused a lot of arguments in RU mil history community]? Are there any problems with the defeat of enemy tanks? How do you assess the resistance of the T-80BV M to modern anti-tank weapons? What is the opponent's skill?
Tankman:
— Tank duels in this theater are very much in demand from our side, and we are trying to impose them. The superiority in reverse speed and the ability to enter the enemy's sides gives us the opportunity not to lose these duels at all ever. And since the Ukrainian tanks are completely packed with ammunition to the point of failure, you do not need more than one hit.
As for resistance against domestic weapons — a solid 5 [top mark]. As for the Western ones, it is more difficult, since we did not give the opportunity to use them against us. But, it seems to me, tandem shells could be a problem for us, but there is always a good old grid [mesh armor] for this.
Fortunately for us, competent Ukrainian tankers are gone, most of the experienced commanders and gunners were knocked out as a result of the fighting of the 14-15s.
Author:
— And the last question. How did the additional fabric screens perform [The egg shell armor but obviously he means working one not empty]?
Tankman:
— By the current moment, there are no more of them left on our tank. [RU Addon side armor packages are easily damaged and tend to fall off quickly]  But, apparently, we were hit with something during the cleaning of the village of "Z.", and they saved us. Works.

That's where I am too.  I worry that for all our confident theorising, the front 'freezes' along the Dnepr land corridor and Sievertsi Donets (yes, no doubt the Russians will eventually vacate Kherson and east of Kharkiv). Ivan will dig in, revert to 1980s tech and mine the sh%t out of everything. So by fall, the sheer human cost of retaking the lost lands becomes higher than even the hardest line Ukrainians can stomach. While Putin manages to keep the lid on far longer than any non-Russian could possibly imagine.
I could absolutely be wrong, sure and the Russian collapse could be sudden, and astonishingly rapid. I absolutely hope so.
...But for all the fog of war, I am still seeing Dmitro struggle to hurt Ivan on the attack for longer than a day or two.  
Even the many far better military minds on this board have not been confident enough to articulate the likely tipping point and its key catalysts. 250 NATO guns? Drones all grounded by date x? Ball bearings? Multiple causation? No doubt it will all be perfectly obvious in hindsight.
1.  In WW1, the French were fighting in their heartland as well, against a hated foe, and did it skilfully and bravely, but their army eventually cracked under the sheer weight of firepower plus failed counteroffensives. In this technological era, the meat grinder is sped up; we don't yet know how fast. And the Yanks are not coming.
2. Like Russia, Ukraine is not a young country demographically. Deaths and permanent injuries that go far north of 100k are going to be a generational debilitation.
3.  Russia's 'best and brightest' are heavily dodging service, letting the weight fall on non-Slavs, rural folks and the unfortunate separ populations. In contrast, the entirety of Ukrainian society is serving (except for the nearly 15% who are refugees). This is tremendous, except when the flower of their society perishes or is broken physically and/or emotionally.
4.  At the end of the day, Russia's population is still 3.5 times as big as Ukraine's, even with all the disunion and cavils.  In short, there's a *lot* of ruination in them still, at very basic levels.
So in the gruesome math of this war,  Ukrainian kids must find a way to resume material outpacing in terms of killing Russian kids, who aren't obligingly rolling forward in their zinc coffins so much any more.  Or else, we are looking at a terrible stalemate where all the small victories and enemy blunders won't reverse the losses of the first 2 weeks.
[/rollercoaster]

Looks like this thread will bring up China topic every 20 pages, inevitable destiny. Usually I will avoid because I believe this is off topic, also a lot of other members put some very good analysis and insights below. But I would just like to add some comments here.
China is helping Russian to stabilize its currency and inflation level by importing Russian oil/gas at higher than market level price , exporting the low cost consumer goods. And that’s it, nothing else. There are speculation that Chinese leadership is pushing for companies ignore the sanction but no avail. US sanction on Huawei and ZTE looks too scary. With China locked in some political drama this year, none of the Chinese corporation has the initiative to challenge the sanction (which I will explain later)
But the noise of “China is directly supporting Russia war efforts” will not go away. Almost every side is interested in to prove this is correct.
 
America:  making enough noise should remind the Chinese corporations don’t cross the red line, sending a clear message to the faction in CCP that pro business with western, Uncle Sam means business. To preserve our long time partner ship (and profits), you got to stand up and prevent such terrible things from happening. The threat of sanction should also reduce the volume of those panda hugger in Wall st, and make the international investor who want to invest into China think twice (OK, in the age of crazy inflation/recession, invest into America instead, I get it.😐)  ,
 
Russia: Back in 2019, a journalist asked Mr Putin that in the age of trade war between China and US, which one Russian will be side with. Putin replied , “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins”. And this “Smart” monkey made a fatal mistake, got trapped, tigers wandering around the poor monkey. Monkey’s only hope is to have the tigers fight each other asap.  It looks like Putin and Xi had some kind of agreement during Beijing winter Olympic. Regarding how Russian can retaliate China if China refused to help, first , Russia can use the agreement to blackmail Xi
https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
If that doesn’t work as intended , Russia can look for a different option, leak all the secrets to the public. Pushing Uncle Sam to keep his promise and sanction China. After that it’s probably out of control but that is what Russia needs, a chaos.
 
 
Now the most interesting one is China:  President Xi’s inner circle has used all available resource advocating “blood alliance” with Russia. Although never admitted publicly, under the instruction of Publicity Department many news outlets and influencers spread the rumor says Russia has received tremendous war materials from China. Funny thing, this propaganda is for internal political struggle.
Contrary to common popular belief, China is not a dictatorship. It is an oligarchy. Although people love to compare Emperor Xi to Chairman Mao, Xi is not a dictator yet.  Of course, we can safely assume he wants to be the Emperor. And due to the fact that he have made so many enemies,  he’d better to become the dictator to save his ass. So the scheduled ccp 20th party congress become a super important event. The country’s future, many elites families’ fate will be decided in this congress. Xi is facing a strong resistance at this moment. TBH it is unlikely he will be sacked in 20th party congress, but the opposition factions can block many important positions previously promised to Xi’s follower, which makes him a caged tiger without teeth. 
In order to secure his position, expand his territory, Xi must show the Party that under his leadership China has become
1, economic powerhouse: No one is going to deny that, but generally Chinese economic take a downturn under Xi 2nd term. It could face a crisis later this year. Of course, a projected western recession works in his favor. And a Chinese economic crisis works as a double edge sword, bad economic could damage Xi’s opposition factions’ power and influence, boost the message to all party members that we need an isolated, self-sustainable economic, and a STRONG LEADER
2, unification of the whole country: not going to happen this year, but maybe PLA can make a limit size operation, occupy Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping Island
3, successfully defend the population from pandemic: people will buy this in 2021, but with crazy strict lockdown this year, other factions interests have been badly damaged, it may have forced many neutral factions take the opposite side
4, China has taken the leadership of new world order: If Putin can come out as a victorious one. Or even a draw should be good enough, Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party will brainwash the population and make people believe that Nato and America is doomed. Empty word won’t help however, Xi must find a way to supply Russia. Unfortunately, most of the Chinese high-tech corporations, military enterprise are controlled by factions that is either hostile to Xi or don’t want to take a side at this moment. So, Xi’s inner circle must make a lot of noise, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.  The propaganda campaign hopefully will convince some of the factions, that ignore US sanction and helping Russia is taking the side with the winning party.  I know this sounds stupid and could backfire. No one guarantee this will work, but that is their plan.