hcrof

Guess precision took a hit...ugh. hey, great, a lesson for the future. Can we please just get 3rd party ammo sourced worldwide to Ukraine now? (I will assume with U.S aid unblocked this will resume, but a pox on certain European countries for insisting on EU based manufacturing at the expense of Ukraine.
https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116957/witnesses/HHRG-118-AS35-Wstate-PattD-20240313.pdf
 

Russian locomotives destroyed by partisans. Haven't seen that before.
Death by a thousand needles is a thing. 

Russian TG and blogger Rybar tell about night ATACAMS strike on AD site on Tarkhankut cape in Crimea. About results initially was claimed blurred "casualties managed to avoid"

But later information has appeared about three S-300 AND one S-400 launchers destroyed in this strike as well as 11 servicemen killed and 4 wounded, when they tried to intercept incoming missiles. Maybe sat images will appear soon. 

Russian also activated on Kupiansk direction - sudden attack of their forces allowed to capture a part of Kyslivka village in 21 km SE from Kupiansk. And again planning fail of HQ. Territorial defense unit seized positions here, because this was relatively calm place, though during several weeks Russians were regrouping on Kupiansk and Lyman directions, oviously preparing for actvisation. 
17th and 34th motor.inf. battalions of 57th mot.inf brigade arrived in time as reinforcement, so Russians couldn't seize the village completely, but the fight is ongoing

On other hand, according to Russian TG UKR troops could retake some territory SE from Terny (Kreminna direction) - marked by yellow

And to bad news. As was posted above, Syrskyi several hours ago made a statement, UKR troops withdrew west from Berdychi. This was logical step after Russians managed to expand own Ocheretyne salient and capture neighbour Novobakhmutivka village and part of Solovyove. So, elements of 47th brigade had a risk to be outflanked and even semi-encircled. 
Video of Russian progress by DeepState map
Concerning to Ocheretyne breakthrow, in Ukrainian media is starting a scandal about inconpetence of brigade commanders and HQ high-officers. Approaches to Ocheretyne were well fortified - personnel of 52nd separate rifle battlion for about six months did own work well with support of engineers. But higher command decided to rotate this unit and moved it to more cal Lyman direction (yes, in conditions of personnel lack there is usual "rest" - to be moved not to rear, but to the sector with less intensive warfare). On their place 115th mech.brigade had to be moved. This is the same brigade, which personnel in May-June 2022 in mass was abandoning positions near Severodonetsk, cuasing collapse of defense. Despite since that time two commanders were substituted, by words of brigade servicemen, there are no any changes - it still one of worst brigades in ZSU. 
No proper combat training. Brigade HQ and battalion HQs were indiffernt to own duties. Officers mostly absolutely indiffernt to soldiers. One guy told, he have seen own battalion commander only two times and their company commander treated them like sh...t and did nothing what he had to do according field manuals. Actually in his company only deputy commander of morale&psychological support tried to tow all duties, including duties of commander and at least a little to prepare own personnel to fight. 
It's no clear infirmation  what happened - one say brigade command didn't control situation and didn't know battlefield, so lost control. Other - that because of disrupted control and timing, brigade elements hadn't time to seize all positions at once, so forward units, which seized them were just smashed by Russian attack, remaining without support. By the rumors 4th company was almost completely eliminated with KIA and MIA. Other personnel (which has low training and motivation levels with such attitude in own brigade) jsut didn't seize positions or just fled from it. During next three days brigade command tried to stop Russians already inside Ocheretyne, but their incompetence and throwing people to thoughless actions led to new casualties and complete dismoral of personnel. 
47th brigade sent some fire teams on Bradleys, but they couldn't save situation. Higher command decided in the midst of battle to move 115th brigade to the rear and substitute them on 100th mech. brigade (was formed from 100th TD brigade, so it almost hasn't armored vehicles and in real is infantry brigade). Until this substitution took place, Russians, having 3-times advantage in manpower here, expanded own salient and captured most of Ocheretyne. Though 100th brigade fihgts tough and could for some time slow down Russian advance, which threatened so far to grow in operative breakthrow.
But story with 115th brigade command didn't finished. There is a rumor that by old post-Soviet tradition (because in Soiviet army for such fails comamnder can turned out under tribunal) higher command decided "to punish" brigade commander... with promotion in the duty. If this true, this bastard will sit in OTUV HQ and maybe develop plans of operations, without understanding of situation and just drawing arrows on the map, shouting on lower commanders "Take this fu...g treeplant immediately! I don't care your artillery hasn't shells! This is an order!"
And other obvious reason of steady Russian successful advance - WE HAVE A LACK OF THEESE FU...G SHELLS! Mass US and EU shell supplies probably will feed the whole front only through two weeks or a month. Reportedly our artillery still be limited in fire capabilities. So, during this weeks you can expect news about next UKR withdrawals. 
PS. Just for notice. 115th was enough well-equipped brigade - it has BMP-1 (or some Eastern Europe produced analogs) and some M113.

The squad of 115th in M113. Right machine-gunner has Czechoslovakian UV vz.59 LMG

About developing of warfare by spiral again %)
Since Russia unable to use A-50 AWACS close to our borders, it flooded our space by long-range recon drones Orlan, Zala, SuperCam, which with rotations are may to observe large squares of frontline and in the deep rear. Reportedly only for one day up to 200 UAVs can be spotted behind out lines. UKR side just hasn't enough radars, EW assets and SAMs, SHORADs etc to cover all frontline to prevent penetration of such number of drones in the rear. Except all of this we have large lack of anti-aircraft missiles of all types, including SHORADs and even MANPADs 
Yesterday likley as experimental act of desperation training Yak-52 was use to shoot down two Russian drones over Odesa oblast. Like in WWI times second crewman takes LMG in the cabine to fire at the drones. BTW this flight was successfull - two enemy drones were downed. And this is obviously more cheap method, than waste missiles. There is a one problem - risk of friendly fire, because small aircraft can be similar on radar to the drone

Videos of "dogfihgt" with Orlan-10
So, if some have operational P-51, Spitfires, Bf-109 , it will be useful

 

Two days before, Russia conducted missile strike on Ukrainain power and gas-sharing system in western Ukraine. As result four thermal power plants got direct hits
Targets of Russian strikes:

And the scheme of attack:

 
Strike statistic:
9 Kh-101 - 6 shot down
8 Kalibr - 6 shot down
2 Iskander-K - 1 shot down
2 S-300 - no interceptions
4 Kh-47 Kinzhal - no interceptions
9 Kh-59/69 - 8 shot down
Total: 34 launced, 21 intercepted. Excluding ballistic ones - 28 launched, 21 intercepted. 
 

Summary of UKR strikes on Russian objects for 27th of April:
27th of April - Russian military airfield Kushchovskaya, Krasnodar region was hit by the drone(s) storage with UMPK kits, converting dumb FABs to gliding bombs was destroyed
In the same day two refineries were hit in Krasnodar region too - Il'skiy refinery (6,6 mln tons year output) and the refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban' (3.9 mln tons). On both enetrprises fractional columns were hit. Both reportedly limited own work.
 
 
A fire on 719th artillery ammunition storage base near Tikhoretsk town, also Krasnodar region was marked by FIRMS on 27th of April, but unknown what caused it - drone attack or something else
Belgorod oblast - GUR in cooperation with 15th artillery recon brigade damaged antenna of Russian low-altitude 48Ya6-K1 "Podlyot" radar and diesel genarator for i, using Warmate 3.0 drones 
 

Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi's latest update:
https://t.me/osirskiy/670
 

Have Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs Been ‘Thrown Aside’ By Ukraine? - A senior Pentagon official has alluded to a recently deployed long-range ground-launched weapon suffering from Russian jamming and other issues.
 
 

It should be noted that the 20k number is very early, and doesn’t at all reflect the situation now. From what I’ve gathered, many of those volunteers either quit soon after arriving or have made their way back home by now in any case. 
The Ukraine foreign legion has three battalions currently active, with one extra used for training. A handful of other foreign volunteers are scattered throughout the regular Ukrainian units, but these are few and far between. 
Based on this I estimate that there’s probably in the ballpark of 5k foreigners in the Ukrainian military right now. Certainly no more than 10k. But perhaps our Ukrainian regulars can give a more informed estimate than this.

Aftermath of M30A1 close hit on Russian S-400 radar
 

Not only ATACAMS.
France will deliver Aster-30 missiles for single SAMP-T complex, recently handed over to Ukriane
 
UK in own aid package will deliver Paveway IV 
... And what also important alot of equipment for State Emergency Service
 

This night UKR UAVs successfully hit next two oil bases in Smolensk oblast
In Lipetsk oblast, particilarly was struck Novolipestk steelworks plant, producing 18 % of overall Russian steel. This plant also produce many armor steel for military purpose and already was hit several months ago. This time drones destroyed oxigen feeding workshop, which may cause disruping of some technological processes.

About the influence of Russia & China into German politics: both the number 1 & 2 for the upcoming vote for the EU parliament of our local fascist party AfD are under the suspicion of taking Russian money. Additionally, the head of the office of #1 has been detained for being a Chinese spy.
And people still vote for them: they get about 15-30% (depending on state). If we had only two parties, I guess the political landscape wouldn't be much different than in the US.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

This.
+their PsyOps campaign targeting "illegitimacy" of Zelenskyi after 31st of May. GUR chief Budanov told today that "hard times await Ukraine in second half of May and June, but nothing apocaliptic will happen" - and he meant i.e. Russian attempt to rise "Maidan-3", especially if this is accompanied by front failures and further destruction of power generation.  
Russians wrote most of UKR tanks moved on rear lines further from Lancets. They episodically move to zero line - to support infantry if need and roll back. Though, you can see regularly UKR tank and light armor losses in Oryx team reports, so they still in use. Now is a time of infantry and drone war. Why too few videos of artillery usage? Lack of the shells. Serviceman of 43rd arty brigade (PzH2000 + Pions) wrote they have so few shells, that mostly maintain own vehicles, than fire. Also in conditions of shells lack almost all UKR artilelry battalions obtain FPV pilots speciality - this gives them opportunity to hit the enemy, though not on so big ranges, like with guns.  

Hard sitauation we have also in Krasnohorivka town north to occupied Maryinka. Several days ago Russians could break through of our rare artilery fire and drones and despite some losses in vehicles landed infantry in southern and south-eastern part of the town. Russians seized railway station area - this is area of dachas and private cottages, also Russian infantry was too few to continue advance. But we also had few infantry to clear this territory. Russians became to use their usual tactic of gradual forces accumulation in captured area for new further burst. Reportedly yesterday UKR troops again threw out Russians from SE part of Krasnohotivka and partially from southern part, recapturing railway stattion. But today Russians again slightly advanced in southern part of the town. BTW southern part is the contested area, because there too hard hold the ground for both sides. Main stronghold of UKR trrops (by Russian opinion) is a local fireproof structures plant, which Russian aviation "processes" with 500 kg and 1500 kg KABs. 
 

Russian MoD rises money award for enlisting motivation to space levels. 
Soldier from Robotyne direction writes:
We take a captive. He says they get 700 000 rubles of additional payment for first coming to assault. They usually don't come back from these assaults, but who thinks about this...
So, any Russian, who enlists got a money for contract signing - from 650 000 to 1100000 depending of region (initially was 500 000 in all regions). This is 6900 - 17000 $. Than he gest monthly 250000 (initially was 200000) - 2600 $. And at last for first assault (I don't know how much shared this practice) he gets 700 000 - 7500 $
This is unprecedented money for most Russians, especally from outbacks. 

Russian attacks activity on different directions for a week.
Kupiansk after Free-Russia units remains calm (6 attacks).
Lyman-Terny is activating again (64 attacks)
Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar directions consistently high activity

Meanwhile frontline situation still hard.
On Vuhledar direction Russians seized western part of completely destroyed Novomykhailivka village

On Avdiivka sector after UKR successfull conter-attack 2-3 days ago, allowed to recapture lost positions in eastern part ot the Ocheretyne town, yesterday unnamed UKR unit in front of the face of next Russian attack along railways just abandoned positions and Russians again seized part of Ocheretyne, but in this time in south-eastern part. UKR command was forced to throw in the battle elements of 47th mech.brigade, which was partially moved to second line for short rest. 
Russians have choosen Ocheretyne as priority objective now and use here the same tactic like in Chasiv Yar. Unlike Wagner during the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut with a tactic of multiple small group attacks, with continous changing of these attack directions, Russians now use strong flanks pressure - this doesn't lead to decisive results without concentration of forces on one direction, but in conditions of personnel and aartillery support lack of UKR forces, this method hampers our reserve manuevers. 

Russians after short rest have thrown in the battle units of 41st CAA on the section Novokalynove - Ocheretyne - Berdychi.  This did for consolidation of battle orders and widening of offensive line in area where 30th motror-rifle brigade of 2nd CAA operates on Ocheretyne and create a narrow salient, which can be in theory attacked by UKR forces from north and south. To avoid this 35th motor-rifle brigade of 41st CAA now entered in offensive line of 2nd CAA from the north in Novokalynove area and 74th motor-rifle brigade in Berdychi area on the south  
Around Chasiv Yar Russians desperately try to breakthrough toward two sections of canal, where it flows under the ground, so there are two section about in 1 km wide each, where they can cross the canal and outflank the town from north and south. Soldiers report from there Russians gathered there many "meat", likely their command has an order to seize Chasiv Yar on 9th of May. 

Some time ago this was biosphere reservation "Sribnianskyi forest" (Kreminna area). Complete devastation. Filmed by "Azov" brigade on retaken positions.
CM should have this type of trees after period of intensive shellings - just a standing or falling down barrels without branches and leaves. 
 
 

Soviet Union/Russia always had strong artilery school, so they hadn't enough problems with new young officers graduatins and new personnel trainig. Implementing of differnt UAVs and PDAs (though Russians to this time coldn't create something similar by functionality like UKR Kropyva or Delta info systems) in more wide scale than in 2022 allows Russian artillery in theory to increase own capabilities. In real Russians still to take by advantage of barrels. Russians complained on terrible quality of N.Korea ammunition for guns and mortars - their charges have weights, which may significantly differ each of other, so rang of fire can variate and you don't know where along the range this shell will impact. Russian gunners now forced manally unpack charges and equalize powder weight in delivered batch of shells. But even after this due to bad quality of producing these shells often hit out of estimated disperse ellips. 
The same issues, but in much less scale are about Russian-made ammunition. Iranian in somne cases even better that Russian. 
The range of Russian systems didn't change, though there were spotted some modern Chineese 122 mm shells with incresed on 2 km range. So, most of their counter battrey activity are Lancets, Tornado-S/Smerch or even Iskander-M in case of HIMARS/CAESAR/Archer.

As I could understand, long google-translated post reflects common trends in current artillery usage. That part, which was translated by me, reflects a situation in particular regiment.
What I can add, Russians mostly still work with batteries in 4-6 pieces, but they now try to disperse guns by platoons or singke guns. Albeit, not always. Several days ago "Magyar" issued a video how UKR FPVs took out four 2A65 howitzers on one firing position