poesel

No, won't happen.
Two reasons: one, there is no political will. Except for the extreme right (10% votes) no party actively supports nuclear power. Two, it is not economically feasible. The companies that run the 3 reactors declined an extension. It is just too expensive compared to alternatives.
Building new plants takes decades and would be too late anyway.
Saudi-Arabia is investing heavily into solar power and the creation of hydrogen. They know that the time for oil is running out. But they have a lot of space with a lot of sunshine, a lot of money and the infrastructure to ship stuff from their ports all over the world. And the world need a lot of hydrogen for steel making and for powering heavy vehicles.
Russia has no such option.

Guys - we were talking about Hungary and I remembered seeing that Venn diagram of it. So I dug it up and posted it. The point was to show that Hungary was on the bad end of all the three big conflicts of the 20th century. Which may explain some of the, lets say, erratic behaviour of the Hungarian government.
A bit similar to Poland actually.
And I'm not criticising any of both countries. I'm just saying that it is necessary to keep the history of a country in mind to understand its current behaviour.

Guys - we were talking about Hungary and I remembered seeing that Venn diagram of it. So I dug it up and posted it. The point was to show that Hungary was on the bad end of all the three big conflicts of the 20th century. Which may explain some of the, lets say, erratic behaviour of the Hungarian government.
A bit similar to Poland actually.
And I'm not criticising any of both countries. I'm just saying that it is necessary to keep the history of a country in mind to understand its current behaviour.

Guys - we were talking about Hungary and I remembered seeing that Venn diagram of it. So I dug it up and posted it. The point was to show that Hungary was on the bad end of all the three big conflicts of the 20th century. Which may explain some of the, lets say, erratic behaviour of the Hungarian government.
A bit similar to Poland actually.
And I'm not criticising any of both countries. I'm just saying that it is necessary to keep the history of a country in mind to understand its current behaviour.

Guys - we were talking about Hungary and I remembered seeing that Venn diagram of it. So I dug it up and posted it. The point was to show that Hungary was on the bad end of all the three big conflicts of the 20th century. Which may explain some of the, lets say, erratic behaviour of the Hungarian government.
A bit similar to Poland actually.
And I'm not criticising any of both countries. I'm just saying that it is necessary to keep the history of a country in mind to understand its current behaviour.

Guys - we were talking about Hungary and I remembered seeing that Venn diagram of it. So I dug it up and posted it. The point was to show that Hungary was on the bad end of all the three big conflicts of the 20th century. Which may explain some of the, lets say, erratic behaviour of the Hungarian government.
A bit similar to Poland actually.
And I'm not criticising any of both countries. I'm just saying that it is necessary to keep the history of a country in mind to understand its current behaviour.

My gf in hungarian. I had time to speak with her about this whole situation in Hungary. Basically, what people fails to understand (me included before talking about it) is that Hungary and Ukraine had alwasy had tensions about ther territories. She showed me video on youtube where hungarian minorities in Ukraine were treated mostly like jews were treated by germans during WWII. The minorities are forbidden to speak hungarian in Ukraine, and there are many cases of rapes and general discrimination. Some years ago also Ukraine threated Hungarian to start a war to regain some hungarian territory that Ukrain thought it was theirs. Also Orban as she told me, was the least harmful leader (or party) than the others. He is a ****, but less than the others.
What I don't understand is why Orban didn't speak publicy about these issues with Ukraine, instead he only went against EU only talking about gas and oil that are needed for Hungary
And hungarians people are helping ukrainians as much as they can, so I hope after this war, both sides will be able to become more friendly and "european"

Turkey and the non-member Balkans current elites arent in some unfair purgatory - theyve repeatedly refused to guarantee media freedom, open trade, patent protection and crucially clean government through structural reforms or legal protection, etc. Stupid chauvinism ego and power protection seems mostly to blame.
Other countries, notably Romania, did accept terms, got in and have steadily improved. 
 
 

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...
 

In nearest 1-2 weeks we will see culmination of Russian offensive. Their pressure now is unprecedent. Lyman and Avdiivka today were shelled severly during several hours almost with all calibers and systems. Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut also under fire. Russian use own usual "burned earth" tactic. 
Russian penetrating around Popasna stabilized by elements of 80th air-assault brigade, but heavy clashes are ongoing. Villages Viktorivka, Oleksandropillia, western part of Komyshuvakha still a grey zone and arena of clashes. Russians are digging in Volodymyrivka and in 1,5..2 km south from Vasylivka - Lypove villages. Locals wrote in twitters - the endless stream of Russian armor and concentration of troops in Alchevsk, Kadiivka, Pervomaisk town. Reportedly at least 18 BTGs now on Popasna - Bakhmut axis
Russian commander of "Popasma group", mayor general Avdeev is relatively young general and he uses more flexible tactic, than direct assaults after artillery fire. He use HUGE amount of artillery and aviation support to supress resistsanse but instead direct assaults he uses outflanking and infiltrations of relativelly big number of small combat groups (1-2 reinforces platoons), consisting of mix of 76th VDV division  and PMC units. Our soldiers point that PMC have many experienced troopers, which passed many wars - they are dangerous enemy, which never surrender and never take prisoners. This actions and lack of troops on Popasna-Bakhmut axis (as well as retreating of some TD units) forced our command to pull our right flank. 
Today UKR troops on Svitlodarsk bulge destroyed the bridge through reservoir of Luhan' river and abandoned Myronivskyi settlement. Looks like we will retreat soon also from Svitlodarsk beyond the river and all efforts will be concentrate on defense of Bakhmut area. 
Destroyed bridge near Myronivskyi
Russian occupants (PMC?) in Myronivskyi

And hypothetical solution...

The original source is a super leftist website even by German standards. The purpose of this article is to show that Scholz is a war-monger because he is sending this huge amount of weapons to Ukraine. Go figure.
The article also only states that Rheinmetall is preparing(!) the tanks for delivery. That actually might be true. I would do it in Rheinmetalls place. Just to be able to say that they could deliver tomorrow if someone gave it the go. I doubt they will get a better price for these things in the future.
Btw what made me chuckle is that they correctly translated 'Gepard' into 'Cheetah' but obviously missed the point.

Yes, absolutely.
Yes, 10+ years down the road. Adding the Ukraine to the EU is like adding a slightly smaller and less populated Mexico to the USA (in relative terms). That is no easy task and should not be taken lightly.
Don't get me wrong - it should be done, no question. But it must be done right.

Whoa there!  So I have taken a few days away because this great Russian offensive has taken on all the glam of watching a blind goat wooing a virgin armadillo.  So we are talking about that 7km "blitz" and a couple UA TD outfits bailing, right?  I mean did I miss the fall of Lviv or something?
So, I disagree that this is "strategic", hell it probably is not operational but we will see if the RA can actually advance more than 20kms before it runs out of gas.  We have been here before.  There was the terrible Izyum offensive that was poised to "pinch off and crush the UA defenders" in some sort of Failais Part Deux, which petered out to whatever that melanoma looking thing has become.  Then the imminent crossing of the S-D River, which turned out to be a catastrophe.  And now the Russians take 7km and we are at the End of Days?
"Imminent collapse" - how many times does this need to happen before people get the point?  The RA has already collapsed twice, strategically and operationally - even if I grant that the UA may have "collapsed" tactically at Popasna.  First was the RA collapse of an entire front in the North, we still remember that part right?  That was likely the turning point in this war and was a collapse by any standard.  Then we have seen another operational level collapse around Kharkiv, my understanding of military theory is that when you are the invader and have withdrawn until the enemy is at your border, things are not going well.
So the real question here is "can the UA do operational offensive?"  And the jury is still out to be honest.  That operation around Kharkiv (a much higher priority than the villages in the Donbas) demonstrated that the UA can re-take ground and pretty quickly.  How well the RA was dug in, how the UA did it and is it repeatable are the unknowns.
We have talked at length about the Russian problems defending a line approximately the same length as the Western Front with a fraction of the troops needed. The line density is something like 100 men per km with what they were showing, and that is stuffing the line with replacements straight from the recruiting depot.  I don't care what the Russian grandfathers were good at, there is a force-space reality here that is going to be impossible to make airtight without another 1 million men and the equipment to arm them.
Meanwhile Ukraine has a 3 month head start in mobilization, I personally think that the UA has more combat ready troops than the RA at the moment and everyday they are getting more with better equipment.  While Russia continues its downward spiral economically and militarily.
As to post-ceasefire (if it happens - Ukraine is signaling the other way, and losing a few dozen kms in the Donbas is likely not to break a nation who had guns within range of its capital) - we had better be ready to pony up and re-build Ukraine a la Marshal Plan, or there was no point in the sunken costs.  Re-building national infrastructure will likely sustain the Ukrainian economy in the short to middle term, in the long term private industry will show up because they are a greedy bunch and this is a market filled with US greenbacks for reconstruction.  We need a functional and well defended Ukraine very badly right now because it will mean the "global order" won this war, and we are willing a pay a lot to ensure that happens (or should be).  We need a bright and shiny Ukraine as a demonstration that the Western based global order still works.  This needs to be a lesson for Russia, and more so for China that we will not let the pen that writes the rules go easily.  If we fail, then we deserve what happens next.

So, some updates, based on analysys of Konstantin Mashovets, our military expert of "Information resistance" group. I would recommend it, but he writes in Russian in ironical and mockery way, so his texts will be too hard to understand for western reader. But his thoughts much deeper, than texts of Cooper and even ISW. 
So, Russians 2-3 days ago launched decisive phase of "plan F" (?) - encircling of UKR troops in agglomeration Rubizhne-Siverodonetsk-Lysychansk. Now their main efforts shifted again. But anout this later.
After Bilohorivka disaster, Russian troops took a pause on this direction, but tried to attack to Siveriodonetsk from NE and SE. In previous days UKR forces withdrew from southern part of Rubizhne and after about two days resistsnce in Voyavodivka - the village between Rubizne and Siverodonetsk, left and this village too, crossed the Borova river. Yoy could see the video of bridges demolish - this is that. Russians attack on the city were repelled by our artillery, so one day after their attack there was relatively quiet. Despite our troops left Voyevodivka, Russians to this time don't control it, because the village under fire control of UKR artillery. Now Russians shelled Siverodonetsk with artilelry and thinking about crossing the Borova river in the city vicinity.  
Most bad situation around Popasna. Initially Russian forces attacked north on Komyshuvakha, aiming on Vrubivka - Mylokaivka with coming to Bakhmut-Lysychansk road, but UKR forces repelled their atatcks so severly, that Russian coomand was forced to mix VDV troops, which suffered losses with PMC fighters and shift own efforts again. Russians and LPR still atatck in Komyshuvakha area, but main strike VDV+PMC+LPR forces conducted on Popasna - Soledar axis and, alas, their advance was successfull. This is not confirmed officially, but from reports of locals, enemy captured Novozvanivka, Pylypchate, Druzhba, Trypillia and even partially entered to Volodymyrivka village in 6-7 km from Soledar. Developing this sucess, Russian command threw in the battle here reserves - 3 new BTGs, at least two of them Russian VDV. Other analyst claims Russian already have on this direction 18 BTG - involved units of 5th CAA, Naval Infantry, VDV, PMC, LPR regulars/conscripts. Commander of "Popasna KampfGrupp" - lt.general Adveev, deputy of Southern military district comamnder.  Today, likely after new reserves arriving, Russians opened third axis of own attack from Popasna - SW. Reportedly they siezed Troitske (only one report, so RUMINT level) - large village, and the gate to Svitlodarsk bulge, which all this time was relatively calm place.  
Simultainously LPR forces, advancing from Novotoshkivske, seized Orikhove and Toshkivka villages and counduct fighting in Zolote and Hirs'ke areas, threating to come on southern outskirts of Lystchansk.
Obviously in interests of Popasna group, Russians changed own actions around Avdiivka. They rejected from senseless direct assaults from Yasynuvata to "promka", which cost huge number of DPR troops and shifted own efforts north along H-20 road toward Kostiantynivka town in 20 km SW form Bakhmut, which lays on the road Dnipro - Pavlohrad - Pokrovske - Bakhmut.
Thus, Russians now shifted own main actions on southern part of own encirclement. But on other axis they continue to atatck or regroup forces. Their "Izium group" now trying to advanse on direction Dovhen'ke - Krasnopillia and Dovhen'ke - Bohorodychne, assisting the "Lyman group" in own mission to cut UKR defense on several parts and to throw them to the river, maintaining wide accsess to Siverskyi Donets - reportedly they already gathered about 40 PMP pontoons sections to repeat crossing (part of this dtuff appointed for Borova crossing). Bakhmut now under MLRS and artillery fire. Russian aviation almost with unimpunity strike from the sky. Our soldiers say it's very hard to hit with MANPAD fast maneuvering target , flying on extreme low altitude. Also features of terrain not always allow to detect their attacks in time. 
But on other hand UKR troops are doing somethig near Izium - today appaerad a video with captured soldiers of 15th GMR of 2nd GMD from this area, so Russians moved some troops from Barvinkove- Sloviansk direction somewhere to Izium and even to Shevchenkove area, where Ukrainain troops are conducting probes in Kupiansk direction.
 
 

Yes, we want Germany to:
a) build an army
b) drive it through Poland to
c) fight Russians. 
I couldn't find the relevant Polandball comic, but you can imagine
Yes I see it, our government is an unfortunate incident ( that even more unfortunately got a second term..) It will change though, probably in next election, and hopefully there will be enough common ground to rebuild the relations then.
Anyway I held Germany to a higher standard, as the one country around which the whole EU more or less is centered. Nobody wants strong Germany in way Russia is strong, but strong as being able to make decisions and act with some vision? That would be great. I'm not doing German-bashing for the sake of it here, it is seriously distressing that the political center of EU looks to be helpless in face of the crisis.
The whole taking your money is another topic altogether as Germany is benefiting from how EU is arranged much more that it is investing in it (as are other countries, it's not a zero sum game). 

You are right. Still, that's not the point. The result is what matters: It's like in every other (democratic) country, Scholz gets elected by Germans, not by Poles or Ukrainians.
Also, I hope you see the irony in your statement: a) Your government usually doesn't care about how it is perceived by the rest of the EU as long as it sits well with their voters. b) Usually, the last thing especially the eastern european countries want is strong Germany. Another perception thing: I think Germans are used to be... well, not liked by people who very much like to take our money. So, I guess, losing face is something that for many is not that important, either.
 

I am really no fan of our chancellor. I'm in favour of helping Ukraine and I don't see much of a difference between sending Panzerfausts vs tank. Still, it would be legitimate to say no, we want to stay out of this conflict (you may like it or not but that would be our decision to make). Scholz doesn't have the balls to really do one or the other.
However: Scholz is also in a bad spot here. Public support seems to be decreasing and, frankly, Ukraine can thank their leaders at least it part for that. The rather constant demanding, berating and even insulting of German politicians that came from Selenskyj, your foreign minister and especially your embessador didn't help at all. At least not after the first one or two weeks. Prices here are climbing in a way that it gets hard for the poorer part of society and along, the threat of nuclear war hanging in the air and along come your leaders and say, no we don't want to see your head of state, we want to see the chancellor, so we can give him our wishlist (had you had tried that with the Queen, it would have been bye bye NLAWs) and f*** you, if we don't get it. (Out don't say it was really like that but that is the it is perceived here, at least by some). I think, as a general rule of thumb, if you want something from someone you are nice and say please - especially in Germany. You may not like it and I'd agree, it shouldn't be necessary and it's one of our less sympathetic traits - and maybe I'd be too proud for that, too. Still, embessadors, for instance, should be professionals and able to read the psychology of a people.

Not sure if things were different without those incidents, maybe not, but that's certainly additional ammunition for Scholz to be able to not fully commit to delivering weapons.

Yes, absolutely.
Yes, 10+ years down the road. Adding the Ukraine to the EU is like adding a slightly smaller and less populated Mexico to the USA (in relative terms). That is no easy task and should not be taken lightly.
Don't get me wrong - it should be done, no question. But it must be done right.

How long will Erdogan resist against Finland & Sweden joining NATO? Or to phrase it better: what does he want for his agreement and will he get it?
 
Sorry, can't let that slip. No, the EU does not act similar to Russia. There are only some political parties who would like to have a more authoritarian kind of state and this is opposed by the EU.
Funnily, the same people who are opposed to the EU are more than happy to take money from it.

How long will Erdogan resist against Finland & Sweden joining NATO? Or to phrase it better: what does he want for his agreement and will he get it?
 
Sorry, can't let that slip. No, the EU does not act similar to Russia. There are only some political parties who would like to have a more authoritarian kind of state and this is opposed by the EU.
Funnily, the same people who are opposed to the EU are more than happy to take money from it.

Yes, absolutely.
Yes, 10+ years down the road. Adding the Ukraine to the EU is like adding a slightly smaller and less populated Mexico to the USA (in relative terms). That is no easy task and should not be taken lightly.
Don't get me wrong - it should be done, no question. But it must be done right.

I can speak only about Germany in this regard. This article is a lot of conjecture. Germany is not wavering in its support for Ukraine. The public isn't and I haven't heard from any serious politician anything in this direction.
About the ceasefire from Scholz - please remember that this whole war thing is pretty new for Germany. Sounds crazy but it is. Public talking about weapon systems would have put anyone in the right wing nut job category in January. Now it is becoming a normal discussion point.
But there is still a significant amount of pacifists who had fought in the 70s & 80s for peace and against weapons. Scholz is also their chancellor and those words are meant for them.
There has been a local election on Sunday and I won't get into the details. But the winners had both a pro-Ukrainian / pro weapons delivery stand.
The public support is there and what has been said about Ukraine being the one to decide how and when it ends is still true.