poesel

Something large is expoloded this night on Kinburn spit, Kherson oblast (long peninsula oppose to Ochakiv), probably in area of Pokrovske village

 
 

I believe I can chime in on this as I am a qualified test subject for these sorts of anti personnel obstacles (raised 2 boys). If the RA can somehow manage to steal all the footwear from the UA, then scattered Legos would definitely be a very effective obstacle to the infantry!! 

Pretty intense recovering a wounded comrade under fire
 

Here's an interesting, if unverified, claim regarding the "Wagner Line":
And also an important voice in the "russia sux' discussion:

That was such a good book.  In defence future thinking circles nanotechnology is definitely on the radar.

The question is more of fundamental "imagined community" than issues like current political system, size of territory or sources of income. Ottoman empire was shattered by global war we don't want, Austro-Hungarian too- and both lacked this clear cut ethnical core that Russia has. German Empire, or more properly: enlarged Prussian polity, was even different beast as it was born as relatively normal state that gradually reshaped into empire for only short time (1870-1918 and arguably 1933-45); Kaiser's power was by no means sacral, nor was Fuhrer's.
Russians have hundreds of years of living in shackles of their Kremlin overlords, which forms entirely different perspective on polity. That is the reason why these childish stories of "ancient Russian people" or "sacred borders of Russia" saturated with some strange transcendance (that is completelly alien to our tastes) being endangered by something shapelessly modern were so popular even among most humanistic of Kremlin critics, including people like Solzhenitsyn. When they refused current Soviet/Russian centralized polity, they were left without one at all. Which is one of the things that human anthropology simply rejects- it is like state of nature swallowing entire political community. This lack of different, natural political shape is crux of the whole problem. That is why 90's are collectively remembered as such time of disgrace and social breakdown, of Smuta- when Tsar abdicates, jungle comes in.
 
Good point about energy, but I am afraid Kremlin's rulers will have enough buyers for various resources in foreseeable term. Simple size of Russia make it impossible to ignore as provider. And authoritarian states can survive a long time even with people walking hungry.

Didn't want this post by @Hubato be washed away... that's so interesting! In any case, if all this "Cold Winter" story ends up being just burning bullcrap smoke vented by the Russian propaganda machine (and its knowing or unknowing accomplices) I think that the resulting massive push for solar (up to a year waiting list in Spain for subsidized home solar installations) and basic things such as improving home insulation will be a net positive contribution to the welfare of the World.

During the last 2 days, the enemy also led the "consolidated" BTG of the 15th and 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Guards. CAA unsuccessful defensive battles on the eastern outskirts of c. Makeevka (Lugansk region). Let's just say that he failed to hold his positions, "hooking" on the eastern outskirts of the village ... In two scattered groups, he was forced to retreat to the village. Kovalevka and towards Novonikolskaya - Milovatka.
After the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced towards Svatovo in the Stelmahovka area, the enemy was forced to leave the area of the village of Myasozharovka, two significantly "shabby" motorized rifle companies (probably from the 15th or 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade) withdrew to the area south of Kolomiychikha.
Let's summarize (a few general remarks regarding the current and further development of the situation in the Svatov direction)...
1. It is obvious that the main goal of all these counterattacks northwest of Svatovo, mainly on both sides of the R-07 road (Kupyansk - Svatovo), as well as tough "oncoming" battles southwest of Svatovo, is the desire of the enemy command to keep the city of Svatovo. And it is no less obvious that he, to put it mildly, "doesn't work." The advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are confidently advancing from two sides into the city and have actually reached its near approaches.
2. Also, no less obvious is the fact that the command of the enemy troops, to put it mildly, rather strangely distributed their forces and means for conducting defense, both in the Svatovo region and in the Kremennaya region ... Yes, I mean exactly between the so-called "northern" and "southern" parts of their "West" grouping. It is clear that the "northern" (Svatovo) part is noticeably inferior "in volume" to its colleagues from the "southern" (Kremennaya - Rubizhnoye). It follows from this that it is much more important for the command of the enemy troops to keep the Kremennaya area than Svatovo ...
3. At first glance, this may look somewhat strange, but in my opinion, in this case, the Russian command made a completely correct and logical decision ... Why?
 
The answer is in my morning messages. In short, it is obvious that the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through Kremennaya and Rubizhnoye north of Severodonetsk (essentially bypassing it from the north) towards Novoaydar or Starobelsk (with subsequent access to the GKU, for example, in the Gorodishche area) is much more threatening than protracted defensive battles in the area Svatovo, or even Belokurakino or Novopskov ... Which, by and large, do not pose a significant threat to the Russian troops, or difficulties in terms of some kind of bypass maneuvers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or hypothetical "breakthroughs" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the rear of the Zapad grouping ...In this case, the Russians can conduct stubborn, deterrent defensive battles in this part of the Lugansk region (Svatovo - Starobelsk), thus exhausting the advancing Ukrainian troops, and at the same time gradually withdraw as if on their own territory (while maintaining a very real threat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of going on the counteroffensive on a broad front), and to the south, gradually building up their forces along the Kremennaya - Novoaidar - Alekseevka - Gorodishche line ...
4. Therefore, proceeding precisely from these considerations, I believe that the fate of the northern part of the Lugansk region will be decided not in Svatovo, but in Kremennaya and Rubizhne, which the enemy will strive to keep under any circumstances.
Moreover, the fate of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk will largely depend on who and how will control the area of Kreminnaya and Rubizhnoye, as well as the "triangle" Shipilovka - Privolye - Novodruzhesk and the LNPZ area.

Sorry, but I don't get how this is different from how leadership currently works in the game?
Or do you mean that leadership should be split in 'officer leadership' & 'NCO leadership' modifiers, which come into play when C2 is cut?

I consider this a plausible but entirely unproven theory.

One could equally argue that the exposure of the refugees to an open society and free media would forever intellectually alter the thinking of at least some of the refugees in a direction that will result in a more positive future for Russia.

Or you could argue that the removal of some of the most talented labor from the Russian economy will hasten a Russian economic collapse.

Last night I dreamt that Putin was assassinated and in the next hour nuclear bombs started to fall all over Europe and I could see the distant flashes in a stormy beach and we were rushing for cover in buildings. And while dreaming, I thought I wanted to post on this forum that someone who argued that we have not that much to fear because of bad russian maintenance of WMD, was deadly wrong. 
I need to stop reading this forum everyday and stop drinking beers late at night 😄

There's a better cut of it on reddit that shows the ammo bin eating a round, the TC chucks it soon after. btw, keep watching that DShK until the end. TC owes his life to that hunk off metal twice over.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yb1th2/russian_towed_artillery_convoy_runs_straight_into/
 
Oh, and I've been holding on to a video clip for the last few weeks. Seems now is the time to post it:
"I am giving up,
I've had enough,
I can't keep this up,
you've got Mylove".
Pretty much the thinking of the Russians at Kherson, I'll bet.

We are very grateful to Germany for the air defense systems that she supplies to us. This is very important now, given the strategy of missile terror by Russia

SPIEGEL magazine has a short piece about the use of the Gepard (and the PzH)(paywalled):
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/gepard-panzerhaubitze-2000-und-co-im-ukraine-krieg-die-rolle-der-deutschen-waffen-a-795b057f-e796-4a85-96ad-16bae97f6d2f
Not too much of interest for us here, but a few tidbits: one Gepard covers an area of 4 km diameter, the gun they were visiting was near Saporischya, they were also used in the Kharkiv offensive and in Odessa. So far this gun has shot down only drones, Orlan-10 & Eleron. The commander needed 6 shots for his first kill. Other Gepards have shot down Shahed-136 drones and even Kalibr cruise missiles.

SPIEGEL magazine has a short piece about the use of the Gepard (and the PzH)(paywalled):
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/gepard-panzerhaubitze-2000-und-co-im-ukraine-krieg-die-rolle-der-deutschen-waffen-a-795b057f-e796-4a85-96ad-16bae97f6d2f
Not too much of interest for us here, but a few tidbits: one Gepard covers an area of 4 km diameter, the gun they were visiting was near Saporischya, they were also used in the Kharkiv offensive and in Odessa. So far this gun has shot down only drones, Orlan-10 & Eleron. The commander needed 6 shots for his first kill. Other Gepards have shot down Shahed-136 drones and even Kalibr cruise missiles.

I know those, they are quite informative. But what is the connection to my post?
What I meant with the 'split' leadership modifiers for officers & NCOs is, that when you buy a battalion, and you want bad NCOs you wouldn't have to click on every squad to make them bad.
Not an actual change of functionality, but quality of life. If you change the leadership of the battalion, you automatically change the leadership of ALL squads.

heh. The head of a previous org (technology and equipment delivery to a larger org) I worked at had the ill-advised idea to open up the development of the new company slogan to everyone. "Everyone" in this case being highly cynical and mischievous. The two most popular submissions were
"[org]: yesterday's technology tomorrow!"
and
"[org]: we're not happy till you're not happy!"
 
The word on the street was that the head very nearly selected the second one, until one of his advisors leaned in to explain the joke.
Boaty McBoatface indeed.

Losses can also be indirectly judged by the number of recruits called in to replace the losses. On this occasion, I can say that of all my friends, and these are more than 100 people (aged 30 to 40), only two are currently in the army and both went there voluntarily. On the street, I see a lot of men of military age, that is, no one captures men on the streets and sends them to the army, as was the case in Russia. If the losses of the Ukrainian army were critical, the situation that I observe would be directly opposite.

Nah PEBKAC is the real one.
https://www.computerhope.com/jargon/p/pebkac.htm 

Ok since previous post about adventures of sergeant 'Krzysztof X" from foreign legion became quite popular, I summarized second interview which appeared on 14 october. This time he talks about Kharkiv offensive. Note, he serves in multinational "special detachment" size of of weak platoon (Brits would probably call it "stick"), serving as recon/assault force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEboMcDuojc&t=4s
Note I omitted some less relevant stuff, but it is still insenly detailed (in fact material for future recon campaign in CMBS...), so VERY long reading. But I think it is worth it, as we don't have too much first hand accounts and simply more people should hear story of these brave folks. Sorry for possible mistakes, I am treating this material as exercise in english and it took several days for half an hour each to compile. It may be slightly incoherent, but I hope it is undestandeable. Text in [] is my commentary.
 
Preparations:
-He claims Kherson offensive was real, but subsidiary from the start to northern one [ note- his personal opinion].
-Offensive in the north was set to begin on 1st September. There was not enough artillery ammo stocks though, so it was delayed for several days. Later they need to race with time, since Russians clearly started to sniff out something big is gonna happen and moved  reinforcments.
- They were called into different part of the front, and worked under new brigade along (in total) 5 special groups subordinated to it.
- His platoon attacked into Kupyansk direction, left of 80th Air Assault Bg. attacking Balaclava. They had insane schedule, with 3 consecutive days they were expected to be in: Vovkhyi Yar-Schevchenkove-Kupyansk. Guys did not believe when told about it and think it was a joke, as it was over 100 km and they barely moved hundred meters till now.

Breaking the front:
- His group was tasked with stealthy clearing paths though minefields for infantry, which they started day before. They worked whole day, get back for a supper, and worked again till middle of the night. Meanwhile assault infantry platoons started to arrive, which they hid in undisclosed space.
- Artillery and HImars started to work in the night "It felt like during WWII". At 4 AM they started to prepare attack, but were delayed again because of supporting tanks were stack for a while in some difficult marshy terrain- also Russians clearly were alarmed by that time, and one RU tank  randomly shoot at their location. Ukrianian tank engaged it.
-They modified plan, but thanks to elastic command it was easier to do [they are special platoon, accustomed to swift decision making unlike rest of common infantry- note how flexible are lower commanders there]. They used a dry gorge (ukr. yar) to get into enemy Observation Point on small hill over it. They pushed sentries back, made corridor and leave attack into infantrymen hands. Specials moved back to rest.
Breaking front lines:
-Russian lines started to crack very quickly in the night. They inexpectedly were awakaned and ordered to mov into breakththough by 5 cars. It was very chaotic environment- a lot of debris, detroyed bridges and sappers [it seems engineers followed special groups before mechanized infantry]. Russians prepared lots of false roads that lead into minefields [interesting detail- again important factor is good driver and spotters]. They somehow successfully passed Vovkhyi Yar roads in light pickups over uncleared roads, but 2 heavier BTR's following them were lost on mines.
-They stayed there for night. They had very vague orders to recon and destroy enemy where possible; platoon commander took decision on his own behalf to try more aggressive recon and thanks to this they reached Schevchenkove by midday. There were so many civilians greeting them, kissing and giving food they had obstructed the road. Guys moved so much forward they lost contact with main column and had no idea if they were followed by heavier forces or were in the town on their own, till they met another group of SSO. They together formed small detachment of 6 with a drone that started to penetrate town itself. Two of his soldiers (Czech and Italian) were so elevated by advance that they cleared several hundred meters of Russian trenches around the town by night(!), without NVG, and not even knowing if main UA force being present behind them [ "blitzkrieg rush" is evident here]
-By 3rd day they moved to Kupyanks road- there they witnessed Russian armour running, but were unable to lay proper ambush due to belts of mines being set along the main roads several kms sideways; they couldn't even shoot with Javelin [another curious aspect- since RU have no infantry to secure roads, they prepared deep obstacles for ambushers along routs of advance  escape].
-Then they moved directly into Kupyansk road, moving in column of several civilian cars and one Cossack armoured car. They passed several checkpoints with abandoned muscovite armour [note they had no knowledge if they will be defended. Extremely risky move]. They reached last checkpoint on hills before Kupyansk, there they fall into ambush on masked bunkers. Fortunatelly, their brigade commander observed it by drone [note they had direct connection to Brigade command] so after sharp firefight they managed to withdraw, their Cossack car being damaged. They laid Javelin ambush just in case and called for support from SSO. Then they participated in failed probing attack on Russian lines, during which SSO offcier was WIA and Russian armour successfully blocked their advance; supporting Ukrainian tank and BTR's run dry on ammo. Only by third attempt on 4 PM they finally cleared the hill and Russian bunkers, with the help of arriving infantry and one more BTR [they stormed it from 10 am and fortifications were probably made from concrete; it could be close to Blahodativka village perhaps?]. The guy was very surprised he survived those days.

-Russian soldiers they encountered there where better equipped than average muscovites; they used for example individually cut bullets "false dum-dum",  also fought very stubbornly. Then he laughingly thanks Russians for providing so much supplies, from excellent food [unusual statement...he means "Spetsnaz military ratios", perhaps better than average🤔] to ammo and equipment.
-Front was very porous by that time, forests and hills around the city far from cleared, and Ukrainian forces behind often fall into ambushes or pinned in meeting engagements. Overal sense of chaos was constant, but very high morale due to presence of cheering civilians pushed them constantly forward ("one more village" syndrome). The more stories they heared from locals, like all young males being arrested and kept for months in small cells,the more were motivated to push- they expected Russians to start killing them like in Bucha [correctly- note many victims from previous massacres were murdered just before liberation, so speed was essential].
-After one day of rest they crossed Oskil river. They did several crossings together with other special other special groups and Kraken unit; spearhead believed they were pushing forward, but were in fact turned back and crossed the river again at Kupyansk alone [clearly Ukrainian command wanted to fool RU as to where main crossing will be]. There endured very heavy bombings by aircraft with case ammunition.
Street battles:
-Battles in Eastern Kupyanks were extremely heavy and lasted several hellish days, with meters between combatants; Russians there were visibly better soldiers than average, truly professionals [visible respect for adversary not present before]. Numerous civilian casualties lied everywhere, especially around the bridge, with people murdered by small arms; probably Russians tried to disperse crowds. Many others died due to artillery and mortars, but they still met civilians trying to find some food [insane, but corroborated by other accounts- due to speed of offensive, Kupyansk was full of civilians during fighting].
-Lines were intermingled and subjected to constant barrage, so a lot of city infrastructure and housing was destroyed. Tactically it was "fire and movement" in urban maze, enforcing fast and constant change of position by small teams unlike anything Western armies did before, often jumping over high fences just to find their previous position being blown by mortars seconds later [clearly Russian had good view and zeroed fires on them, hunting eevry team and soldier they could find]. They could only find short rest in cellars, but these could turn into traps if Russians found them. At nights they let several times Russian tanks and wave of infantry to pass them, later armour being detroyed at close range in the city center. Russians were occassionaly so close their KIA lied directly over and behind Ukrainian positions.
-Russians were very keen on capturing the city, since they still had units left on western bank and only two avenues of escape. Active defense and movement is king of the game in war like this, with large spaces between positions. Thus any army, including Western ones, would fight war of manouvre in such conditions- fortunatelly in this war Russians lacked infantry to "grab and hold" terrain.

-More strategic thoughts- he doesn't think Russian soldier, despite being cruel and ruthless to civilians, is necessarly "mobilized peasant". Some are like that, but many he met were well led professionals knowing their job. Also people at home laughing about Putin's mobilization should consider the influx of infantry, even weak one, will have significant effect on RU ability to hold terrain (especially urban) and plug holes at the front, thus changing nature of war into more linear and static. Once they will be there in mass, It will be more and more difficult for UA special teams to infiltrate the lines, and even recruits with guns can turn any urban fight into nightmare. He generally warns against treating RU mobiks lightly, as disregard for enemy is what started this war in first place [ very good point, btw; I think we sligthly slipped into echo chamber laughing at examples of Russian mobiks being drunk or send into meatgrinder. In favourite conditions, even dying by hundreds, they can make a difference].

-After several days they started to push Russians out of the city toward forests, where they set their positions. Ukrainian assault groups needed to cross more open spaces there, meeting massive barrages of artillery fire. He refuses to tell what they did to avoid them [probably they had Russians tapped somehow, allowing them to "chase off" fire]- it was constant movement to avoid heavy fires and find some cover, with enemy trying to trap them between lines of progressing creeping barrages. In the end they managed to secure enemy positions, and were called off to R&R. All that time they slept very little and were extremely tired.

-Asked for casualties- refuse to tell real numbers, but grimly give Zelensky's number of magnitude of ca. 50 soldiers dying daily as roughly correct; his platoon also suffered combat lossess he refuse to elaborate on. Russian lossess are hard to tell, but were visibly higher than Ukrainian judging by numbers of left dead bodies. Some were lost in doomed Russian assaults that were conducted poorly due to lack of infantry [I suppose too many armour charging blindly forward]. There was also a lot of POW's that will be used as bargaining chip. Russians in turn seem to not taking foreign volunteers as prisoners, which every legionaire should be concious about before he joins [based on Russian nationalistic channels, it can be largely true].
-At the end, he laughs at Shoigu complaining at "Polish mercenaries from under Kharkiv"; there are barely several Poles on entire front, but during one particulary heavy barrage he started to nervously call somebody in native language by radio on open waves, which was intercepted by the enemy and started this legend of "two brigades of Poles" [entirely believeable; Russians and their complexes...😎]
-They spend some days behind the front, but now are again going into recon missions on northern front and hunting Russians. Despite casualties, spirits are very high, especially thanks to civilians they liberated. Many units participating in the offensive are very tired and have used equipment; for example, their 5 cars are junk demanding complex reapair. They are also in need of spare barrels for their carbines [he personaly use GROT but with longer barrel, unsuitable for close combats they often participate in] and exchange for broken NVG's. Still, volunteers and Ukrainians are optimistic as to how the war is going, especially compared to gloomy June.
 
Ok, end for now. If I see other interesting interviews I will try to post them.
 

The question was, 'would they ... if their world collapsed?'.
I think, that is a 'yes'. If Russia would catastrophically collapse (and Iran's regime still exists at that point), giving WMDs to them would be a last inconsequential (for Russia) middle finger to the world.
But I'm quite sure that several agencies have that scenario at the ready in their cupboards.

This is Osa (SA-8). Theese SAMs organized in regiments - one per each Operative Command + one in Naval Forces. 

When it comes to anti drone warfare the future might be lasers or air superiority drones or maybe even other things, but what about now? This war has had a lot of this, the future of the UA is probably M1s or Leopards, but what can they use right now is the bottom line. I don't see the drone question as being much different. Lasers are out there and being tested but the army with the biggest budget in the world is still in the developing and testing phase. 
With Perun's latest video and other discussion the UA needs a better option than wasting limited Buk or S300 missiles on these little kamikaze drones. I would think anything bigger than a MANPAD is going to have pretty limited missile stocks, except maybe NASAMS but there you have limited platforms. Some sort of kinetic solution seems like the most viable in the short term.
How about the old PIVADS or similar systems. We've seen the Gepards but what else is in storage in western countries of similar use? There's got to be some gun systems out there. I think I saw CIWS turrets on trailers for base defense awhile back. Someone mentioned an Aegis land system. Couldn't an Aegis land system with multiple CIWS turrets cover major targets or lines of approach? You'd think they would be able to have a turkey shoot with the slow stuff but maybe some of our Navy experts could chime in.  

Anti-drone drones seems like the most reliable approach.  
A big piece of capital equipment, whether directed energy or kinetic, is just a big target, and once it's gone the opponent has free rein over the area.
Anti-drone drones can be cheaper than attack drones - they don't even need to have any kind of weapon other than themselves, and have the option of being explody or not.  A bunch of kevlar string can foul propellers - they can dangle strings or throw nets like gladiators, and one drone could carry multiple "fouling weapons".  They can run entirely autonomously once launched - if they don't need comm then they can't be jammed.  The tricky part is having an IFF system that works effectively (and isn't spoofable) in swarms where there might be a mix of friends and enemies.