poesel

Site that visualizes the Oryx visually confirmed losses data. With constant updates: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine
some interesting examples:

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

Sorry, couldn't resist

Sorry, couldn't resist

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

Sorry, couldn't resist

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

This one, for example:
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/germany_to_resume_the_production_of_smart_155_projectiles_in_5_years_which_have_shown_themselves_really_well_in_ukraine-4676.html
We spend about 100m€ just to be able to produce them again in 5 years. That's a crazy long lead time to re-establish a manufacturing line from about 15 years ago. I wonder what components have to be recreated.
That is really a problem. If you don't have customers who continually buy your stuff, you cannot just mothball an assembly line and unpack it whenever you need it. The supply chain is gone, as well as the skill required to run that line.

Sorry, couldn't resist

I've been involved a bit in the making of a production line for artillery shells. The problem is that it is not only about the parts that make out the round, but also about the machinery for making those parts. There is quite a lot of complex machinery involved. Much of it is also specialized machinery that is not used somewhere else.
Even mothballed stuff breaks after a while. So you need replacements and your spare part package is not endless. After a while, you start to scrounge for stuff on eBay, and then you need to drag engineers out of the retirement homes because no one knows how to use that specific piece of tech anymore.
Of course, you could unpack this thing once a year and try to run it for a week. Fix the stuff that broke and pack it up again. But that is very expensive for something, that is most likely useless (unless it's priceless, as someone else put it nicely). Good luck explaining that to your taxpayers.
I guess that would be too big even for the US military budget.
First, you need an engineer who knows how to design that. And then you need to have your design certified. And prototyped. And tested. And signed off again. And then produced. And tested again.
Doable of course. But with a big price tag. Like the 100m€ for setting up a new production line for the SMArt 155 ammunition. Btw, the actual production for 10,000 rounds will cost another 800m€.

Sorry, couldn't resist

This one, for example:
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/germany_to_resume_the_production_of_smart_155_projectiles_in_5_years_which_have_shown_themselves_really_well_in_ukraine-4676.html
We spend about 100m€ just to be able to produce them again in 5 years. That's a crazy long lead time to re-establish a manufacturing line from about 15 years ago. I wonder what components have to be recreated.
That is really a problem. If you don't have customers who continually buy your stuff, you cannot just mothball an assembly line and unpack it whenever you need it. The supply chain is gone, as well as the skill required to run that line.

This is a unique video for me. At 10.21 minutes of the video, I see people with whom I took refuge in the basement of the clinic after my apartment was left without windows. Later, I corresponded with a guy who is standing with a child in his arms, he said that they were evacuated on March 08. I offered them to go out with me on March 05, When the hospital staff decided it was time to evacuate but they refused and spent three days in the basement without electricity and water.
The video shows moments a few days after the start of active fighting for Irpin. By that time, evacuation corridors had already been organized. People knew in advance when and from what place the evacuation would be organized. I left Irpen on the fifth of February. Then there was no organized evacuation, no one understood exactly where the enemy was, where the safe route was. Everyone went to the bridge in the way that he considered correct. And some paid for their mistake with their lives. I went to the bridge alone on foot and I think I was lucky.
War brings people together. In the face of danger, everyone strives to do something to help others. Pharmacies distributed medicines to everyone for free, shops distributed food, a lot of volunteers appeared ready to help others. From the second day of the war, I was constantly in the local clinic. We unloaded humanitarian aid and food, carried the wounded (a point was set up at the polyclinic to stabilize the wounded before sending them to a military hospital). The victims, whom the doctors could not save, had to be buried right in the courtyard of the clinic, as the road to the cemetery was shot through.
 
Most of the wounded were civilians. I remember two cases in particular. In one, a man and a woman brought a dead child of 5 years old with a gunshot wound to the hospital. They tried to leave Bucha to the west, their car was fired upon by Russian soldiers. In the second case, a pregnant girl with a damaged spine was brought to the hospital. She and her husband were in their apartment when the shell hit their home. The husband died on the spot. she got a spinal injury. Unfortunately, as a result of this injury, her child also died. She lost her most loved people in one day.
 

The worst mistake on the procurement side was canceling the Crusader SPG that was supposed to be even better than the PZH-2000. They were coming in at about 8 million a copy, but experience in Ukraine implies they would be priceless. We now seem to be frantically trying to fix that. They have just had some success with a 155 shell with a small ramjet that boosts the the range up towards 60 or 80 k.
https://www.defensenews.com/miltech/2022/08/11/boeing-nammo-test-ramjet-155-artillery-weapon/
Everything for the last 15 years everyone has focused on NLOS missiles with very smart guidance. There is no evidence that the Russians have any meaningful counter for that yet. But it is always good to be ready for the next round of counter, counter, counter. If they ever want to actually fight the Chinese have certainly been fairly warned that coming to the fight without a countermeasure for that is just this side of suicide, maybe just the other side, so we will see.
We have discussed endlessly that you can't let the other side fly drones that are talking to functional artillery and expect to enjoy your day.

That reminds me of people who're trying to build/rebuild Mosquitos. Nearly 8,000 of the things were built over a 10 year period, but then the tools, technology and skills all just evaporated when production ceased. Now trying to build Mosquitos, despite 70-odd years of incredible technological advances, is an almost impossible task.
"Just in case" manufacturing is a wicked problem, and restricted ammo supply - especially artillery ammo - is a feature of all wars that go longer than a few weeks. The basic problem is that consumption rises from essentially zero rounds per day (well, maybe 10-50/day, depending on the size of the army) to several thousand per day in the space of an afternoon. You can't realistically store enough rounds to last a war, and you can't just start up a production line and expect magic immediately.
Assume you figure you're going to need 5,000 rounds per day, and your hypothetical war is going to last 12 months. 365 x 5000 is 1,825,000 rounds. Ok, well, good luck finding that much safe storage space. But lets assume you do that. Sweet. You are good to go. Oh, but wait - time keeps moving forward, that's what it does. In 10 years those 1.8M rounds need to be fired or destroyed because they're at the end of their useful storage life (dumb rounds will probably last longer, but even 10 years is probably ambitious for smart munitions.) In order not to 'waste' the rounds you need to use 180,000 rounds in training each year, and also scale production to 180,000 to maintain a steady flow. But 180,000/yr is a hell of a lot of 'training', it's about 500 rounds per day. Every day, including Easter and Christmas. So, ok, lets say we'll store a quarter of our assumed requirement - a bit less than half a million rounds. That makes the storage problem more plausible, and also makes low rate production more realistic; about 45,000 rounds per year. That is still a lot, but it's not A LOT. And the assumption is that you'll be able to spin up production from 120 rounds per day to 5,000rpd within 3 months, so just as the initial stockpile of 500,000 is exhausted new production is up to speed and delivering the required volume. Except now you have 3 assumptions to manage - duration, consumption, and ability to spin up production. Get anyone of those wrong and you have a glut (an issue, but not a problem exactly) or a shortage (eek!).
For low use stuff, like SmArt rounds, the problem is way worse, because you're dealing with much smaller numbers. The Germans built 9,000 rounds for storage, so assuming they can be stored for 10 years that means 900 replacements needed each year, or about 3 new rounds per day. At that level you're essentially talking artisanal production - old bearded guys lovingly rolling shell cases on their naked thighs to get the calibre juuuust right, and soldering the circuit boards by hand over scarred old hardwood workbench under a flickering fluorescent tube, which really doesn't scale to mass production in any sensible way.
And then all you need to do is solve those three assumptions for every other line-item used by the military.

I must say that my current life is a paradise compared to what it was at the end of February, beginning of March. Then, in the current situation with electricity, I am daily exposed to artillery shelling and air bombing. I was in my apartment and just moved away from the window, when a 152-mm shell fell right in front of my window, at a distance of about 100 meters. They threw shards of glass at me, later I found one of the shards in my apartment. Miraculously, I didn't come back. But this is a trifle. It all happened so suddenly that I didn't even have time to get scared.
Air bombardment of senior artillery. When you sit in the basement and hear the rapidly growing whistle of a Russian jet engine. With this blood in your veins, you literally freeze with fear, you understand that now he will drop bombs and, perhaps, you will find yourself under the rubble. When the FAB-500 bomb explodes a kilometer away from you. A building in the basement that literally shakes like an earthquake.
But I experienced the greatest fear when, in the conditions of street fighting, I traveled from Irpen (I had the stupidity to wait until the last, hoping that the Russians were not going to my city, because the bridge to Kyiv had already been blown up). As I was walking towards the bridge along the main street on the next street, literally 200 meters away from me, a heavy firefight broke out. I saw tracers flying across the intersection that I had to cross to get to the bridge. I waited until the Russian turned the fire in the other direction, and with all my might ran across the intersection. Despite this, thanks to adrenaline, I had more energy than ever. I ran a mile and a half with large and heavy bags. Normally I wouldn't be able to do this.
 

This one, for example:
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/germany_to_resume_the_production_of_smart_155_projectiles_in_5_years_which_have_shown_themselves_really_well_in_ukraine-4676.html
We spend about 100m€ just to be able to produce them again in 5 years. That's a crazy long lead time to re-establish a manufacturing line from about 15 years ago. I wonder what components have to be recreated.
That is really a problem. If you don't have customers who continually buy your stuff, you cannot just mothball an assembly line and unpack it whenever you need it. The supply chain is gone, as well as the skill required to run that line.

I live in the Ruhrgebiet. IIRC, last year they found about 6 unexploded bombs in a park that has 6 figure visitors per year. The park exists for nearly 70 years.
The papers had that in the 'local' section.
Well, her choice of words and her action are not especially a grace for the German nation, either. But then, I don't know what happened before.

I live in the Ruhrgebiet. IIRC, last year they found about 6 unexploded bombs in a park that has 6 figure visitors per year. The park exists for nearly 70 years.
The papers had that in the 'local' section.
Well, her choice of words and her action are not especially a grace for the German nation, either. But then, I don't know what happened before.

I assume this is the pontoon bridge alongside the Antonovsky bridge:
 

Ok let’s get some knowledge on this whole Wagner Line thing.  I will caveat that 1) I am not even sure a complex obstacle belt will work against how the UA has been fighting this war and 2) I have no idea how long this Wagner line is, or whether it ties into natural obstacles nor what the fire plans are around it.
That said, be very wary of the internet.  I see a lot of people talking about stuff they have no idea about, particularly in the “Russia sux camp”.  I do not go into my professional background too much for many reasons but I will say that one of my military incarcerations over a 34 year career is a military engineer, so take that into account if you like.
First, I doubt the veracity of the styrofoam claim very much.  Why?  Because it would take more time and resources to make a fake dragons tooth than to simply pour some concrete over steel bars.  I have heard nothing about Russia suffering a concrete shortage and this whole styrofoam theory sound like complete BS.
Second, efficacy of the Wagner line dragons teeth.  Dragons teeth need not be fixed or footed, particularly not the pyramidal ones I am seeing in this pictures.  They are designed to roll and catch the ground on their points as they do.  In doing so they can either belly up a tracked vehicle or de-track it.  Either way they act as caltrops for tracked IFVs and armor, looking for mobility kills but these are just the appetizer.
Third, these are clearly part of a complex obstacle.  The sorts of obstacles are designed to pull combat engineering and key armoured resources forward and expose them the fires.  If you can kill them then bull-rushing such a complex obstacle will likely yield in and around 70-80% casualties.  It isn’t how large the dragons teeth are, or how much they weigh, it is their placement.  I have heard a lot of “well we can just go in and tow them out” or “bring in a dozer and simply push them”.  Sure, but you are doing that in the middle of a 400m deep minefield while having ATGMs and artillery dropped on your head.  In fact the dragons teeth I have seen in that double row are likely the horizontal safelane markers as well.  As you would expect dismounting in the middle of a minefield with crowbars and chains is a good way to turn trained sappers into names on a memorial.
Finally, stuff like dragons teeth are hell on mine plows and rollers.  The get in between them and mess up the tank.  So this means engineers have to bring up technical vehicles like dozer tanks..which are very rare on the battlefield.  I have seen pics of these dragons teeth next to railways and embankments, which is really smart as that makes the mechanical clearing job that much harder.  About the only expedient way for this is explosive clearing - which I am not sure the UA even have - dragons teeth then should be fixed to avoid being blown aside.  But when combined with an AT ditch and some decent sighting that can even stump an explosive breach.
So no, there is nothing wrong with those Dragons Teeth as is at least as far as I can see from a picture, maybe not the most awesome I have ever seen but as part of a larger complex obstacle they will do exactly what they were designed to so long as that obstacle is covered by fire and observation.  The Russians are going to need about 100kms of these in a triple belt with KZs pre-sighted to get the effect I think they are looking for, which I do not think they can do and shame on the UA if they give them time and space to do this.
Remember that diagram I did up a while back, look both left towards effect and right towards capability when seeing stuff like this and always keep in mind the entire picture.  And avoid groups who are just seeing what they want to see at this point.