poesel

Mobilization campaign failed + Russian PsyOps trageted on mobilization is working. Zelenskyi substitued all chiefs of oblast enlistment centers and appointed there mostly wouded officers from frontline. But this was bad decision. Corrupted chiefs didn't forget about opwn pocket, but on other hand mostly performed mobilization plan. They were "bureacrats", which knew all theses 100500 regulation papers. New chiefs not "bereaucrats", they are "warriors". They need a many time to understand all this inner "kitchen" how mobilization process is working. And substitiution didn't change such disgusting happens of abduction of people from the streets by enlistment offices patrols. 
These stories as well as stories from frontline about higher command doesn't carrying on about lives of soldiers, about typical soviet army "dolboyebizm", about enlistment offices, who don't interest that mobilized man would be effective soldier and send for example good specialist in radioelectronic as usual infantryman, protracted war, which contrasted with "stupid Russians" stories on TV, powerful Russian PsyOps cmapaign against government and mobilization - all this gave on fruits. Government really don't know what to do and where to take a people in order to do not cause social explosion. 
Now is upgrading for mobilization law is preparing, but from enough radical and tough project deputies removed many things, which can be dangerous for power stability. 
As a good news and right direction - military units themselves started to attackt motivated people on service via recruiting offers on different work finding boards. Some "new-type" and media-known units already have own recruitment centers ("Azov ", 3rd assault, "Da Vinci Wolves" etc) and wow - people come to them without forcing! And many young people go, which by the law can't be mobilzed (18-26 y.o), except own will. But on other hand we havn't recruitment law. And often enlistment offices and recruitment centers hadn't communication. 
So, now we started a way of enlistment tarnsformation, but now we at the point, when old Soviet type syetem already showed own insolvency in modern conditions, and new system is just appeared and can't maintain 100 % of army need in manpower. 
Other aspect - despite we have 880 000 in Defense Forces (jourmalists "rounded this number to million") - Army, National Guard, Border Guard, Police, SBU, GUR, State Special Transport Service, State Special Communication Service,  many of personnel never have seen frontline. Of corse we don't talk about AD crews or techniclal specialists, or logistic service. But now the audit started in Armed Forces and already spotted 8000 servicemen, which just mobilized "as disposal of General Staff", but in real they don't serve anywhere. And this is only beginning. There are also enough units, which never (!!!) were on frontline or were there for short time and more time sit in the rear or guarding Belarus border, than fighting with Russians in that time when the same 110th brigade spent 1,5 years without rotations in Avdiivka. And this probably was another reason to substitute Zaluzhnyi.   

This answers some of your questions:
https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53281
I included one graphic from the report, but there is more data.
TL;DR: a mobik dying in his 30s might earn more by his death than he would during the remainder of his lifetime, including pension.
 
Where do Russia’s mobilized soldiers come from? Evidence from bank deposits
Solanko, Laura (21.02.2024)

 
Forgot: I got this through this paywalled article:
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/russland-geld-fuer-tote-soldaten-wie-der-krieg-einen-makabren-vermoegensboom-ausloest-a-a35d1548-1e7c-4481-b798-0a5fae6dc3e4

I'm afraid we are way past the argument stage wrt Scholz and Taurus...
There are also quite a few people in his party who still very much agree with him on that issue. Add to this that in East-Germany, the population is split on sending arms to Ukraine at all. I mentioned the three upcoming votes there? There is zero chance that anything will happen before these are through, and it won't get much better afterward. The last of these votes is September 22nd. And the next national vote is a year after that.
So nope, I ain't seeing that happening as much as I wish it.

This has been officially verified as being genuine. And I had no doubt about it. It was like hundreds of project meetings I had had to enjoy.
Of course, our government is not amused and there are lots of critics. But OTOH, the way these guys discuss the matter is very pragmatic and down to earth. They discuss the political and technical ramifications and search for solutions (and find them). Kraft has summarized this very well, although the English subs are quite bad.
The things got hacked because one of the guys was in Singapore and probably didn't use a VPN.
 
 

This has been officially verified as being genuine. And I had no doubt about it. It was like hundreds of project meetings I had had to enjoy.
Of course, our government is not amused and there are lots of critics. But OTOH, the way these guys discuss the matter is very pragmatic and down to earth. They discuss the political and technical ramifications and search for solutions (and find them). Kraft has summarized this very well, although the English subs are quite bad.
The things got hacked because one of the guys was in Singapore and probably didn't use a VPN.
 
 

This has been officially verified as being genuine. And I had no doubt about it. It was like hundreds of project meetings I had had to enjoy.
Of course, our government is not amused and there are lots of critics. But OTOH, the way these guys discuss the matter is very pragmatic and down to earth. They discuss the political and technical ramifications and search for solutions (and find them). Kraft has summarized this very well, although the English subs are quite bad.
The things got hacked because one of the guys was in Singapore and probably didn't use a VPN.
 
 

Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA.  In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness.  Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.  
 

Ok, so we came from bros weeping about lost friendship to actively helping Russia. Now, that goes fast...remind me, what is mainstay of your SPG? And maybe tell you were entire production of Krab howitzers (circa 38 pieces) that was produced last year for our army somehow didn't make to their destined units? Who provided modified S-200 via Bulgaria that  likely are shooting muscovite aircrafts? There are wonders taking place across this border I assure you know very little about. If I would be AFU soldier, I would prefer as a Christmas present big fat modern gun rather than crying about some part for quadrocopter, but you are entitled to your own opinion naturally. Sorry, doesn't seem like Poland "ditched" Ukraine in any way so far:
https://www.wnp.pl/przemysl-obronny/polska-ma-ciekawa-bron-dla-ukrainy,801297.html
We have business problems that should be solved; what we are seeing now is part of negotiation process. That's all.
Btw., talking about volunteers...could you explain me in rational terms why every volunteers from here- be it Pole, Swede, English, Ukrainian from abroad or whoever- must pay a bribe to one of your border guards to actually bring something into UA? You even realise how widespread the practice is and how many people resigned from help cause of it? What is happening with those drones, starlinks and myriad other stuff that they are suddenly found on OLX? Why your journos- despite repeated and grounded reports send to independent media in UA- are so rarely interested in what is happening with this stuff afterwards and actual entire culture of corruption? Why, and I know what I mean, we see the same self-satisfied, fat Soviet faces on the border for the last two years sitting in their posts like bashas, despite numerous assurances that "something will change" from central gov?
Well, nothing changed; rockets are failing on their country, but hey, business as usual: "You bring humanitarian help my friend? No, we need to check a lot of procedures, unless you have some present for my wife [literal phrase]...to Donbas you say?To hell with them, 12 hours of waiting extra at the very least unless you change your mind..." This is not incidental but almost obligatory (depending whom you know), I personally know people who actually wait more on your side of the border than blocked by protesters on other- and this is exactly humanitarian help you mentioned.  Perhaps UkrainskaPravda should look into that, instead of spreading fakes about zilions of tonns of Russian grain that- suppesedly- out of a sudden landed in PL? If you don't believe me, I can provide you with several accounts of multi-national volunteers. And know several good, first-hand stories from those convoys, including one with former PM of your ally and main supplier, that don't put Ukrianian services in very good light at all.
Nope Zeleban...you are sabotaging yourself, at many levels. To be brutally honest, I am in more awe of courage of your soldiers, knowing how corrupted, oligarchic and still mirred in Soviet mentallity state structure they defend (and don't read me wrong, I don't mean your nation). There is no reason why farmer from here, or anywhere else from European Union, should be ruined on the altar of extra revenues for some grain oligarch. Zelensky himself mentioned that only 5% of UA grain goes through that border and your country actually increased its revenues totally...so are really things that bad? Or somebody in Kyiv simply miscalculated it is more profitable to earn some extra by dumping this grain into EU like crazy than keep hot romantic relations with Warsaw. I don't blame them frankly, Bankowa was always very pragmatic when comes to these issues. If they see a looser, they use him; it's part of Soviet diplomatic heritage from very old times that still exists, just as it exists in the military yourself wrote about. Yermak and entire collection of shaddy businessmen that sorrounds him is just example.
Btw. if you really want to search for scandals, I would turn more attention who actually grew fat and rich on various businesses that are run in your country during war, what percent of actual new revenues goes into your warchest, what is happening along entire length of these chains (including deep into EU or even in Africa) and what stays on someone's account during these transactions. Grain speculation including.
Well yes,you are right, but if indeed bringing parts for them is such a problem, why not pack them together already in EU, put into proper military/humanitarian cargos that go unobstructed, instead of civilan ones? Seems like logistical rather than political challange. For what I read among less-panicking sources, main problem caused by protesters is actually with cars for the army that are travelling on formally civilian carriages, that sometimes are indeed severly delayed. There were also instances where actual smaller military cargos were blocked (like famous boat for AFU), but rarely for longer than several hours. The problems with parts for copters is that once prostesters started to letting cargo with drone parts out, naturally every truck instantly started to carry them, regardless if it was fish, vegetables, cars, yogurths and such... I know a story about a driver with oranges who claimed he carried propulsion for drones size of a fist (couldn't show it, naturally, somewhere in the middle), and even had complete of barely faked documents. Therefore, valid military cargo.
Btw. the same surprise goes for European Union policies. Everybody in 2022 expected Ukraine will neeed these land borders as lifelines when Black Sea trade will be cut; that was original reason why any limits were lifted. But Ukraine managed pretty well, sea roads were unblocked and even prosper, and main things that travel through this border is cars, food stuff and myriad other civilian things that have little to do with war.
https://newsyou.info/en/2024/02/prodazhi-elitnix-avto-v-ukraїni-byut-rekordi
Rant about brothership and all is emotional in nature and have little to do with actual policies of both states; I could respond that brother does not wait to ruin the house he was welcomed in or at least display minimal ability for cooperation, but that is so banal I won't do that. Also remember farmers are just one social group, not representative for entire society.
 
And about tournikets not coming along: these guys saved thousands of your troops and they report continously from frontlines. So far stories of life-saving medical stuff being suppesdly blocked by farmers (on our side, not by corrpution on the other) seems to be incidental. If you have better, undispited sources that are not another PsyOps, please provide.
https://www.wmiedzyczasie.org/

Data before january on positions is not accurate as tracking didnt start properly then.

I can imagine foreign forces taking over "border security duties" wherever the current front line matches the pre-2022 (or pre-2014) borders - like transnistria, belarus, and from belarus down to kharkiv. Somewhat similar to what the UN has been doing somewhat successfully with various missions on the borders of Israel for many decades now. That would;
* free up a lot of ukrainian ground forces,
* restrict russian options for missile routes, and
* *really* secure those borders until or unless putin starts playing 'trip-wire chicken'.
Slow-boil could also see foreign forces take over theatre-level ground-based air-defence

Poverty and lack of education - they usually go hand in hand. For India add the caste system (officially dead, but actually still alive).

So you are saying that absolutely nothing can be learned from history? A sad day for historians around the world...
Joke aside: it is wrong to assume that trends from the past project linearly into the future. But is also wrong to assume that there is no trend.

So you are saying that absolutely nothing can be learned from history? A sad day for historians around the world...
Joke aside: it is wrong to assume that trends from the past project linearly into the future. But is also wrong to assume that there is no trend.

When @The_Capt starts posting with a 7-8 hr time delay from North America, you'll know where he's been sent...
 

Poverty and lack of education - they usually go hand in hand. For India add the caste system (officially dead, but actually still alive).

I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia.  We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance.  This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives
I gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together.  As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war.  We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS).  However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this.  I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses.  Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated.  Does anyone think Putin planned for all this?  That Russian society was ready for this?  No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us.  Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.
So what?  Well first off, Russia clearly is not in great shape and their performance in this war compared to the advertising has fallen woefully short.  Russian resilience is high, I will give them that.  Yet we do not know where that breaking point is for them - further, they could have already crossed it...these sorts of things do not happen fast, until they do.  But...and it is a big "but", Russia does have a breaking point.  Every nation/society/human collective on earth has a breaking point.  Russia is not invincible and homogeneous.  Under enough stress it will fracture - economically, militarily and socially.  What we have is a competition of breaking points - ours, Ukraine and Russia's.  Our "breaking point" in the West (US in particular) is laughably low.  I suspect Ukraine's breaking point is further out than Russia's as of all the parties to this conflict, only Ukraine is facing direct existential crisis.  The question really is: can weak western will plus desperate Ukrainian will defeat Russian (??? metric ???) will?  One can immediately see the two major variables here.  Western will and Russian will are the two players on a Ukrainian fulcrum.  The location of that fulcrum depends on how much western support we provide to Ukraine.
I stand by my position that militarily this war has already been won; however, that does not mean it cannot still be lost.  If the West totally fails Ukraine, Russia will take ground - it, in effect, expands Russian option spaces.  Russian airpower seems intent on flexing, perhaps eyeing air superiority again.  A complete withdrawal of US support is a strategic mistake of historic proportions.  It is essentially ceding a proxy war and Ukraine could enter the annals with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan of lost US ventures.  The rest of the West will need to step up.  If Ukraine falters, as some have insisted, then the whole conversation is moot.  If the fulcrum shatters, there is no war.  The West will write it off to "bad investment" and re-draw the lines.
The longer I watch this war, the more in awe of what the WW1 and WW2 generations went through.  We see those wars through the safe lens of history.  It is another thing entirely to be in the middle of one with the future unwritten.

The line for navalnys funeral keeps growing. I doubt the police will let everything go off without a hitch. 

Yeah, no, I'm gonna have to stop you right there because politically there's simply no such possibility that a majority of Polish population supports these protests.
The 'expanded significantly' protest groups include farmers and miners, both of which have really bad rep among about half the voting population. You know, the half that just a couple of months ago had the biggest election turnout in the history of the country to reject PiS government.
Farmers are often viewed by the so-called centre as anti-EU PiS or Konfederacja supporters (hard right), their retirement program is widely hated among them and there's a sentiment that they are no 'ordinary farmers' in the traditional sense but more akin to entrepreneurs/bussinessmen who happen to have a company dealing in agriculture.
Miners are hated due to high salaries, their retirement program viewed as privilage and being effective labour group working in it's interest.
Both groups are widely hated for historically organising any kind of protest in cities or blocking highways.
Then the liberal left often hates both because they are seen as an obstacle to a more green and eco-friendly future.
We're talking about people with political identity who just overturned a government that was viewed by them as too reliant on farmers and miners. In recent months the anti-ukrainian tendencies might show stronger but believe me when I say so, people I'm talking about will rather support Ukrainians than farmers or miners in any such border 'conflict'.
 
 

😁

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763116800537997387.html
"So Russia recently released footage of the targeting of Ukrainian Cars across the border aswell as Lancet, Sahed and Tornado-S footage. I have cut it to take out the gore footage and only show the Lancet and other hits.
Here is the thread 
So lets start:
AS-90(known)
2S1 Gvozdika Damaged
Training Ground Hit
T-64BV Damaged
Group of T-72 Barely Damaged
AN/TPQ-50 Destroyed
BREM-1 ARV Destroyed
BMP-1 Damaged
T-64 Destroyed
T-64 Damaged

Bradley? Destroyed
Unknown Vehicle Destroyed
Leopard 2A6? Hit
Buk-M1/M2 Destroyed
BTR-80? Damaged?
Unknown SAM Destroyed(claimed patriot)
BMP-1 Damaged
BM-27 Uragan/Bureviy Destroyed
Msta-B Howitzer Damaged
Leopard 2A5(known) Destroyed

Destruction of a Ukrainian RM-70 Vampire MLRS

Sahed and Iskander-M strikes on Infrastructure and Targets."

Now that is the kind of statement I would like to hear from more countries.
Honestly getting tired of seeing Ukrainian civilians be killed and Ukrainians not even being able to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, with some of the weapons that they are provided.
You go Finland! 🇫🇮

Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.
 
NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
 

Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.
 
NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
 

Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.
 
NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
 

Because Scholz won't send Taurus ;-).