rocketman

It's not a mist of suspicions....Musk has quite clearly demonstrated that he will take his own interests into account before any national interest. He has actively promoted the idea that Ukraine should surrender territory to Russia and that Taiwan should submit to the PRC. Elon Musk is *not* our friend. 

Local Sevastopol TG claims, refering to sources in administration and Black Sea Fleet, that according last information there were 2 maritime drones and 8 missiles. UKR aviation resource hints there was airstrike, so Storm Shadow/SCALP were used. Russians initially reported about combined strike of converted S-200 and Storm Shadows. According to last info (unofficial for now) only two drones and two missiles were intercepted.
Number of victims of workers raised to 11 killed and 31 wounded. Landing ship and submarine allegedly destroyed, two more ships damaged, but level of damage is unknown.
More, after the strike, there was information about UKR diversion group operates in Sevastopol,so police and Army patrols were directed to find them. Police passed one of army patrols as sabateurs and opened fire. In result of skirmish 3 soldiers and  1 policeman were killed.

"Damaged" Ropucha-class in all it's glory.

Again?
Ps. Starlink claims it was global issue, but... very strange coincidence

"Olenegorskiy gornyak" stands in the dock of Novorossiysk - she would't survive sailing to Sevastopol with such damages
Reportedly large landing ship "Minsk" and B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" submarine were hit. Also reportedly two workers were killed and 26 were wounded during the strike

Shipyard on fire in Sevastopol post Ukrainian strike
 

I wasn't saying we should never go to mars.  I am saying we shouldn't be 'colonizing' it anytime soon or even sending humans.  we need better technology before we do that.  And it would cost an insane amount of money to send even a research team there & back.  At a time when we use drones to do lots of dangerous dirty work why would be send humans to mars for research right now?  I am all for sending 'drones' until we get better propulsion & survival tech.  Mars is a radiation soaked hell hole w low gravity and very little air, why would we 'colonize' that in near term?  It's a death sentence and would cost a trillion dollars.   And why would we try to send people to mars on 7-9 month trip, each way, when we don't even have a base on the moon, 2-3 days away.  (note, I do think we should put a station on moon and use that to learn). 

The VDV doesn't much like being on the receiving end. Hopefully the ones getting an introduction to JDAMS and 155 DPICM on the southern front right now comprise the end of Russia's competent reserves. 

One thing is certain. It is always going to be harder to make another planet's environment livable than to fix this planet's environment. Colonizing other objects is about expanding our total amount of available real estate, not about escaping our current world's problems (one of many reasons why there is no point in rushing colonization (it would probably take centuries for a colony to grow to self sufficiency anyway, so it would do absolutely nothing to save us from anything that might destroy us this century or next)). Unfortunately that does rather ruin the plot of Interstellar.

First things first
The_Capt, you are simply an excellent writer, that is a completely separate thing from subject matter expertise. To be sure you have a vast quantity of that as well, but so do a lot of people who can't EXPLAIN any of it. Anyway, if you write a book on 18th century Chinese porcelain styles, I will buy it, simply because you can WRITE.

He's made some really good choices and saw where things were headed while others had head in sand.  But genius?
He drunk or mental illness binge bought twitter, tried to renege (even trying to wreck twitter stock value thinking it would help his case) and was forced to do the buy.  He paid $44B for a company worth maybe $20B.  And now it's worth what?  he then decided cost structure to high and binge fired over half the company w no plan or thinking.  That aint genius.  
He publicly wanted to fight his competitor, Zuckerburg of facebook.  And wanted to compare dicks.  That's not genius.
He thinks QAnon stuff actually makes sense.  That makes him an idiot, not a genius.  
He alienated the customer base for tesla cars (affluent libs) and had to dramatically cut prices.  The good news for tesla is that they are great cars and get the big tax break in US, so a lot of libs (some I know) held their nose and bought anyway, but he did serious damage.  So, not a genius.  
He thinks colonizing mars makes sense.  Except that it's insane.  Maybe he promotes this because he'll make fortune on the contracts for the stupidest endeavor in human history.  

I used to think so. But I am more and more convinced that Musk isn't actually all that smart. Just rich enough to hire smart people. The man renamed Twitter (one of the more recognizable names in the world) to X (a single letter which is impossible to trademark and which is literally used as a placeholder).

So this is what you got?  I teach “young warriors” and have led dozens in combat while you likely sat at home and yelled at the tv - you are no vet I can tell that from your first post.
Let’s stop the BS and call this what it really is - political platforming.  Your position is not all that difficult to read, pretty transparent.  Basically everything the current US presidential administration is doing is “wrong”.  “Right” is whatever “our guy would do as opposite”.  So President Biden is pursuing a deliberate incremental strategy to compress Russia, so your position is “more firepower” and “hard staring”.  Or you jump on the “this war is stupid, we must negotiate”.  Basically anything President Biden is doing is “wrong” and anything they are not doing is “right”.  That has been the sum total of your contributions to this entire discussing since you showed up (oh, and some bizarre social commentary on women and social justice for good measure).  That is it.  One long “very stable strategic genius” diatribe anchored on a single viewpoint.  If President Biden declared the US was going to “end this thing in 4 weeks” you would be here yelling that “this was the dumbest thing ever” and probably quote my points as why.
You know it is ok.  You are just another in a very long line of segments of the population that surrender their own agency in the face of uncertainty.  We invented the Church which has lasted over 2000 years on exactly that principle.  Agency and independent thought is to embrace uncertainty and most people really don’t want to do this, it is scary.
Problem is you wandered onto the wrong forum.  This place has been home to a lot of independent thought since before this war started. We have pursued the facts as we can find them and then conduct collective analysis and synthesis to try and establish a clear picture of what is happening.  No one here has surrendered independent thought to a political position.  We all have opinions, I for one think President Biden’s administration has done very well in managing this crisis.  Not perfect but considering we are well off the strategic map here, they have done as well as reasonably possible.  
I am not an American, I do not participate in your political process so I do not share your baggage.  I cannot fix you or even try to change your mind, you clearly have it all figured out.  But you are not going to find friends here. Your missionary work on this forum is a waste of time.  
But it is ok.  With this last, I promote you to Hot Thread “crazy guy”.  It is a honorary position that has been vacant since John Kettler left us (rest in peace John).  You can go on and on but we all know it is for entertainment purposes only.  I am even going to un-ignore you because I am going to be first to rub your unruly mop of hair and just smile at your incorrigible rapscallion ways.  Your are a stump thumping looney kevinkin, but you are our looney.  Try not to get banned because then we will have to find another.
 

I am a veteran of two wars and have likely forgotten more about war and warfare than you based on your contributions to this thread.  
I see that you are taking a “self-imposed” vacation and will come back “when proven right”.  Well problem with that is that you have never really taken a clear position on anything.  At one moment you talk about “diplomacy and negotiation” the next “4 weeks to victory”.  You have not demonstrated any real research or citations in your contributions nor any level of recognizable expertise on the subject matter.  My, and other attempts, to explain are “too complicated” so you dismiss them.  Then when I sit down and actually try to unpack your position and why your assumptions are flawed, I get insults and name calling.  No facts.  No counter analysis.  Just “be quiet”.
So when you come back (and I am sure you will), what exactly constitutes you “being proven right”?  Have the courage to take a position and clearly define it and stop these politically motivated drive-bys.  The way you have ambiguously framed your position does not allow for you to be wrong.  If the war is still going on you can declare “I told you we should have negotiated/stated/invaded”.  If the war ends, you can claim it is because the US finally did whatever you were saying all along.
So I am calling you out.  Clearly give us three strategic “must dos” in order for this war to end.  Clear and measurable strategic actions the US and West must carry out in your deeply informed opinion.  Don’t weasel around it or try to build in wiggle room.  Here let me show you how it is done:
1.  Commitment to win the war. The US/West must continue to own the escalation ladder in this war.  They must continue steady, predictable and clear pressure on Russia through programmed support to Ukraine.  This commitment must be unambiguous and apolitical, we are in it until this is done.  No back doors or side deals.  No renormalization until Russia is out of Ukraine completely.  This is a slow steady path with no sudden movement as we thread a needle between uncontrolled escalation and stagnation/freezing conflict.  This is a long war of attrition and must be navigated as one…it will go slow until the RA collapses militarily or there is a major political shift in Russia.  Either way direct confrontation between US/West must be avoided at all costs - no hard fast win.  Further, victory must be clear and unambiguous as well.  No soft-wins for Russia just to end this. Russian defeat must be clear.
2.  Commitment to win post-war.  Reconstruction and post conflict defence and security mechanisms are a must.  No grey areas or open clauses.  We commit to rebuild Ukraine and pull it into a real security alliance that will guarantee long term security and investment.
3.  Engineer Russian negotiations with its own defeat.  Russia cannot become a failed state, yet it requires regime change.  That is very tricky to manage at the best of times.  A path to renormalization must be developed but it cannot ignore the egregious warcrimes and violations Russia has committed.  This will lead Russia out of being pulled entirely into a Chinese power sphere and provide some multipolar power manoeuvre room.
There you go.  I am on record with my position and advice.  Now if the US goes in hard next week and Russia withdraws with its tail between its legs I will be proven wrong.  If we can suddenly negotiate an end to this war that makes everyone happy, I was also wrong.  So what have you got?

Praise be. 
 

I have largely ignored you because it is pretty clear that you are not in fact interested in actually learning anything on this forum.  However, in reality this is an honest question that some lurkers may also be asking.  Why can’t the US, or NATO or an alliance in between “win this war in 4 weeks and just end this brutal war?”  Don’t need an essay really:
-  Put the nuclear escalation to the side for arguments sake but we will come back to it.
-    A US direct incursion into Ukraine or this war is going to drive a massive amount of support into Putin’s arms, to the point he might actually get full mobilization support.  A fully mobilized and galvanized Russia is a scary beast particularly since they will likely be heavily backed by both China and Iran as they will see the entire expansion of the war as a chance to defeat the US by proxy.  So now the US has four weeks to push Russia out of Ukraine, could they do it?  Probably?  Would it end the war…no way.  It would likely expand it as Russia gears up for a serious fight because now it has reason to have one. The totality of your position is that you are in fact pointing madly at a “limited war” but your solution is “more limited war”…oh wait maybe you are not talking about a limited war.
- ok, to defeat Russia, truly defeat them, it means not simply driving them out of Ukraine.  It means total defeat of Russia as a nation.  The destruction of Russian Will to fight.  This means going into Russia itself and removing its ability to generate that Will.  So we are talking invasion, defeat in detail and occupation…of Russia.  The military force the US would need to do that is well outside the US military current envelope, we are talking millions of troops.  Let’s pretend Russia can be occupied, it is a big country (look at a map).  You now need to hold it until you can install a friendly government…and remember you brought up total war.  So the US and most of NATO would now need conscription to sustain a force that large…you feeling strong?
- “But we will stop at the border”, sure and Russia will now simply reload and incite as much violence and discontent in Ukraine…now filled with US troops.  What possible negotiated end-state is there where Russia can still function while massing for WW3? No, you cannot give Russia time to reload…that would be really dumb.  So now you would need to contain Russia…in the 21st century…with China on one of its borders…and Iran.  That is a massive problem.  The state sponsored terrorism issues alone will be intense.  Again, this is limited measures that won’t “end” anything but risk a lot worse.
- Back to occupation, the risk of a resistance from hell is incredibly high.  See the many lengthy posts on that issue.  Very angry and well supported by various powers an occupied Russia could make Iraq look like a weekend outing.  Oh wait, there is more,
- Russia might fly apart while you are trying to occupy it.  Not known for its shining unity, occupation could see Russia itself fly apart and the the US is trying to manage a civil war…and a possible insurgency.
- Ok, now the obvious one…WMDs.  Let’s pretend that Russia won’t use them on good old “Merican” boys as they counter attack into Ukraine and encroach on the Russian border.  They sure as hell will if the US invades Russian soil, which we have to now.  And even if they don’t there is no way in this universe we can guarantee we can secure them all.  Now we may have lose WMDs of many flavours lose in this mess.
To put it more simply and in words with as few syllables as I can: To defeat  Russia and end this war in 4 weeks the US would need to break Russia.  To break Russia is to engage in a major war, possibly global.  It would break the UN, it would shatter NATO because I can think of at least a dozen nations that would get off that train quickly.  Economically it would break the system as we are talking markets staring down the barrel of nuclear Armageddon.  Anything short of that is just more limited war with even slimmer margins than we are already on.
So when you declare that “the US could end this thing in 4 weeks” all you are doing is loudly announcing just how much you do not understand.  If you honestly want to learn, maybe stop typing and start reading more. 
 

In my opinion Putin made the same fatal error many in the US (and this board, at times) are making: seeing and hearing only what they want to, not what is actually there.  Putin grossly oversimplified the problem of a major invasion of Ukraine.  He and his cronies built a framework of weak and dangerous assumptions, willed them into facts, and refused to consider any facts that did not fit the house of certainty they had constructed.
Problem is we are seeing the same weakness in strategic thinking/ understanding within our own populations and some political players are simply exploiting that.  The real danger is when that flawed framework hits reality, which does not care about human fictions no matter how hard we may believe them.  We saw it during COVID, we see it in Ukraine - flawed strategy colliding with reality.

Fully endorse this. The claim the Biden administration somehow blinked is, let's be entirely clear, idiotic. It played every card it could play within the political/military/strategic restraints that it could in order to avert the invasion. That the Russians decided to go va banc is on them, not on everyone who tried to stop it. 

My assumption is that the global pandemic had delayed Putin's original war plan by about a year. Putin had plotted his war-of-plunder in Ukraine under the assumption that *someone else* would be in the US presidency at the time, would have pulled the US out of NATO by then and would have publicly backed him in his war. We were in fact just a few locked doors and a few alert Capitol security guards away from that happening, judging by the growing list of January 6 sedition convictions. A common meme at the start of the war was that Putin had invaded Ukraine on a whim because Biden had publicly said 'unkind things' about him (I recall one Youtube video actually used accompanying CM game footage). You can't have it both ways. You can't blame Biden because he too forcefully warned of the coming war and also because he didn't oppose it enough.

No it wasn’t and I don’t think you need to.  It is a stupid narrative proposed either by opportunists or fools.  The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine.  The costs were simply too high on too many levels. This entire post-crisis “tough guy” narrative is a pretty oblivious ploy to try and pin the blame for this war on one side or another.  We all watched Russia doing dirty in the region and basically did nothing…in some cases we made it worse.
”But air power!”  Ok dingus, how much do you think positioning that amount of AirPower in the region would have cost?  Air power is not a magic wand, it is a massive military capability one has to surge, stage and keep at readiness levels, costing billions to do so over the timescales the “staring” would have occurred.  The bill for massive overmatch of the Russian air forces would have been (and frankly still is) very high.  Let alone if we really had to do it, and completely ignore escalation risks. Same people would be quacking about “ridiculous government spending in Ukraine” that is would have taken to actually set up “staring” - unless it was their guy in charge, which is a whole other problem.
 One is not an expert “strategist” because you can regurgitate some spin-lines dreamt up by a political ad agency. You are fool being played because it is so much easier to let someone else do all that hard thinking and make this whole complicated world so simple.  And before anyone weighs on on left or right…both sides do it so let’s just not get into that.  Best thing you can do for yourself is get a library card, read a lot of history and a wide range of political sciences/military affairs.  Do the hard work for yourself.  

Russian TG claims, during retreating of Russian troops from Opytne toward Donetsk airport, Russian artillery mistakingly hit them, because spotters thought this is Ukrainian forces advance. As claimed 27 killed, 34 wounded, several vehicles destroyed.  
Repeating of 2014 situation, when battalion "Vostok" eliminated almost whole detachment of Russian volunteers "Iskra", retreating from Donetsk airport, passing them as Ukrianian troops, which brokethrough to the city
 

O.o
 

Some effect fireballs
UKR FPV drone destroyed Russian SP-howitzer east from Vesela Dolyna village (SE from Bakhmut). It's about 9 km from frontline
It's claimed TOS-1A was coocked by UKR R18 drone of 27th brigade of National Guard, but vehicles is under trees, so unclear what exactly was hit
UKR FPV drone hit directly at 240 mm shell, prepared to charge, of 2S4 SP-mortar, causing nice fireball. Lacation Popivka village 5 km SW from Svatove and about 10 km from frontline
 

yep, being aware of inequities in society is gonna make us go broke.  Much easier to teach that slavery wasn't so bad.  Trying to understand the real continuing impact of slavery on our society is too woke.  You go Florida!

This is just getting sad.