rocketman

At least the X guy had the decency to admit he is a novice.  His analysis is a bit of a mess.  The objectives he lists are really all over the map (literally and figuratively).
I think it has been termed “The Death of Expertise”.  Social media, and now AI, has lowered the cost of information to the point that one no longer needs to demonstrate proof of work.  The problem is that information is not knowledge.  The ability to take information, or as we have gone on about - negative information (things that should be seen but are not), and synthesize it into knowledge based understanding is not something one can do with a Twitter account.  It takes years of study to create the critical analysis frameworks and foundational understanding that allows one to take new information and understand it in context.
We see this “college boy, eh?” type of thinking in vulnerable sectors of society.  Those that were not afforded the opportunity to gain expertise can now appeal that condition.  Further expertise can be wrong - that should probably be the first rule of experts.  In fact an expert will know they are wrong before anyone else.  Being an expert is not about being right all the time, it is about understanding what we know, what we don’t know and why.
So we have people who are facing enormous uncertainty and are compelled to try and solve that.  They form information spheres they trust and then use that to try and understand better…to be more certain.  It is what we have been doing here since Day 1 - world went nuts, we seek certainty in community.  Problem is when a community is built on biases or skewed perceptions.  We have walked that precipice on more than one occasion on this very forum.
In the end, it is not about “shut up and take what I say as gospel”, in fact any community that is doing that is probably toxic.  It is about clear and objective analysis of facts, due diligence in self-monitoring and correction and proof of work in making analysis and synthesis happen.  Everyone and anyone may contribute to this community, but it must contribute.  Signal not noise.  Not for me to judge noise, the meritocracy of the community (and moderators) do that for us.

Belgium expects to use $2.4 billion in tax on frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgium-expects-use-24-bln-tax-frozen-russian-assets-fund-ukraine-2023-10-11/

Oh goody, that kid showed up.  Russia is “still there” because they dug in behind minefields and won’t leave, hardly the high water mark of military performance.  The UA defeated the initial invasion.  Created conditions for a Russian operational collapse, twice.  And are now working on a third.
Any chance you could be curious somewhere else if the sum total of your contribution is questionable, incited claims and pointing out that Jesus wasn’t really born on 25 Dec?  Asking for a friend.

Avdiivka after next strike. Reportedly the city in fire and smoke, Russians try to hit all mulistorey buildings in the city
Both UKR and RUS point out unprecedented level of artillery and MLRS strikes, a wall of fire, not seen since summer 2022. Russian milblogegrs with triumph shouting "Here where all our shells! Likely they were gathered here from all front sectors!" 
UKR soldiers told about just enormous number of Russian infantry, that's imagimation allegedly almost  all reservers were thrown here. I even think maybe Russian offensive on Kupiansk and Lyman direction are bogus actions and real heavy strike Russians made on Avdiivka direction
UKR sources refuted Russian claims that they captured Berdychi village and claimed we repelled five heavy attcks. Reportedly only for this day Russians lost 10 tanks. About hour ago was a claim about Russian jet was shot down, but no confirmation. Russian aviation today acted with completely impunity - alas, it's usual thing for Avdiivka direction.  
Backbone of Avdiivka defense is 110th mech.brigade and 129th TDF brigade of Kryvyi Rih city  - they are on northern flank and the city itself; and 53rd mech.brigade on southern flank. Also one separate rifle battalion, 501st marines battalion of 36th marines brigade and mobile groups of "Omega" National Gurd special force brigade and groups of 3rd SOF regiment. Against them - multiple number of mobiks motor-rifle regiments and DPR units. 

There wasn't much reaction to the Svalbard comms cable incident either last year
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/02/unknown-human-activity-behind-svalbard-cable-disruption
Should always remember that quip Lenin made about bayonets when dealing with Russia. Push back with steel when they probe.

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

Few points in reaction to your post and several others:
1) European support for Ukraine is instinctive and not diminishing.  There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children being educated in European schools - voluntarily - for 20 months already.  They even go "home" on vacation this summer while their European school was out.  Now they are back and learning hard.  The long war Putin has engineered with his mines and trenches and bloody sacrifices is working in fact long term against the russian interests. 
2) When Ukraine wins Europe will be there with reconstruction and investment - this is where EU at least is best in class.
3) Militarily we all need USA, as we have for 70 years.  Personally I doubt that USA will wobble on support for Ukraine.  If anything the current talk in USA reflects a trap being set for the Republican Party and also an echo of the assumption several months ago that a Ukrainian victory was going to be like a walk in the park.  Support for Ukraine is a wedge issue that might divide and destroy this current iteration of the GOP.  Every Republican I know would die for the values Ukrainians are dying for today.
The situations elsewhere in the world are telling that the Obama hug and love approach does not work.  We are now in an idealogical conflict between liberal values and authoritarianism that goes way beyond Ukraine.  
4) Militarily Biden still has another year and a bit to be Commander in Chief.  I back him to stick to his guns.
 

Lucky UKR tank crew - Russian soldier hide in the house and shot RPG at the tank, when it faced the gun in other side. But the projectille ricoсheted from the pillar and then tank destroyed this house.
 
 

A lot of western politicians greatly over-egg the whole "death to..." thing. It's a common rhetorical flourish in Iran, and if there's one thing that Iranian culture is known for it is over-the-top rhetorical flourishes. If you ever take a taxi in Tehran, and the driver say to you that you were such charming passengers that there is no fee for the taxi ride, he isn't being literal. It is just the first move in the game of tarouf where people try and out-do each other in comically over-the top generosity and politeness, before eventually settling the bill as expected. Very little in Iranian dialog is to be taken literally. 
So there are crowds on the streets (when the government asks for them) shouting "Death to America" sure, but during some economic protests there are also plenty of people shouting "Death to Hizbollah" (due to the amount of money Iran was spending on supporting Hizbollah and Syria, while economic conditions for normal Iranians were bad), and "Death to taxes" (and even "Death to traffic" due to congestion). It's just a colloquial phrase for expressing disapproval, not to be taken literally.
Of course, the Iranian leadership are not fluffy bunnies, and are quite willing to get thousands of people killed in pursuit of minor political aims. And they'll quite cheerfully export death and murder, and (like everyone else) do whatever they can to improve their military and access to the most powerful weapons they can. But honestly, they're not trying to destroy the west (or the world) in some apocalyptic frenzy. They are mostly trying to become the dominant regional power and defend their own security (remember the Iran-Iarq war?), whilst trying to navigate the millenium-plus old Sunni-Shia divide (which has given the Shia, understandably, a lot of sympathy for the underdog and the victims of a double-cross), and defend the Shia populations in other Arab countries.
China also ins't trying to usher in the apocalypse. Their primary goal is to not have their economy be subject to the whims of the US Navy. China depends on maritime trade from its east coast (despite the best efforts of the belt and road initiative to create alternative routes overland to Asia, Africa and Europe). And the reality is that that trade only exists at the forbearance of the US Navy. China doesn't want to have to depend on American good will for its prosperity. It wants to have a strong enough navy (or at least enough area denial capability) and enough control over the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia) that it is the power that gets to decide what can sail in the south China Sea, not the US. It wants to be able to guarantee its own naval trade access and coastal security. Of course, that pretty much guarantees conflict with the US, Japan, Taiwan if they try and push that capability (arguably Indonesia and the Philippines would be more amenable to political solutions in the event that the Chinese navy was genuinely competitive with the USN in deep water). 
Russia at the moment is the odd one out - they don't seem to have any rational goal that corresponds to reality in any meaningful way. They just want as much non-Russian territory under their control as possible to act as an expendable security buffer, but have chosen an approach that is achieving the opposite of that.
But these countries aren't working together to some common goal. They are each pursuing their own goals, and using 'friends of convenience' where it happens to align with their own goals.

All that talk about stopping or reducing military support for Ukraine is a bloody disgrace. And a war the West can't walk away from. A fight to the death.

Please, guys, it's bad enough this thread has been dallying with conspiracy theories about how Russia invaded Ukraine because of Canada or something. I don't think it illuminates much about what's happening in Ukraine right now to theorize about how a conflict happening thousands of kilometers away - one which has been happening for decades longer than either Russia or Ukraine existed in their current incarnations - is actually all masterminded by Putin in order to... elect Trump?! I love political thrillers and spy stories too, but sometimes stuff around the world just happens, it doesn't all need to be connected to a sinister grand plan. For sure everything that happens everywhere in the world is connected in some way or another because that's the nature of human civilization, but that's a less interesting insight than I hope for given the expertise of people on this thread.

In today's interview with GUR "Artan" unit fighter "Shaman" and C.Budanov, chief of GUR they in first time confirmed that GUR special forces tried three times to recapture Enerhodar nuclear plant, but all attempts failed. 
In first time only several dozens of GUR fighters landed on oppose bank of Dnipro, but after half day of fight they were forced to reterat
In second and third time already several hundreds of GUR forces tried to establish bridgehead to expand it and give opportunity to move there mechanized units to liberate the plant and city. In last attempt fighters of Foreign Legion participated, particularly New Zelanders, who had training to be in the water long time. During the third attempt Russians brought tanks directly to the river and UKR troops were forced to withdraw again.
C.Budanov pointed out all operations failed because of lack of experiense and fast interaction in such operations, also lack of artillery support and lack of proper control.
But even these failed operations thwarted intentions of Russia to plug nuclear plant in Russian power grid. Also these landings give experience, which later was used during seizing of gas rigs in Black Sea and landing on Tarhankut cape. 
 

No. Ironically, but now we have a Jew as a president and Muslim as minister of defense.
I can't find this photo - the Jew and Muslim, who serve in one platoon celebrates Orthodox Easter %) When you under death each day and fight for own common land, all differences have gone to background. 

Yesterday strike near Dzhankoy in Crimea. Russians claimed they shot down missile(s) - in different TGs their numbers are from 1 to "more than 10" $|%)

Later became knowingly from local chats (but still rumors) UKR S-200 missile hit deployment and training camp of Russian Spetsnaz, which was masked as usual agricultural facility. Reportedly Russian soldiers complied OpSec measures, but in some way their deployment became knowingly to UKR intelligence. As result 21 KIA, 16 WIA. The missile hit their camp, when soldiers gathered to supper. As if a soldier, who told this  left the group for some time and got only shell-shock. 

So first of all, if you are turning to Lindsey Graham for foreign policy advice, you may want to check outside and ensure that the sky in in the right location.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/lindsey-grahams-foreign-policy-advice-donald-trump/572089/
But that is just me.  
Of course we want Russia to get back in the box.  Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas.  We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into.  We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy".  Ukraine is not a "weapon in our hands," it is a nation who we are desperately trying to keep above water.  The strategy you are proposing is so bafflingly short-sighted that is borders on self-destructive.  So how many Russians are enough?  What happens if Ukraine doesn't kill enough Russians to satisfy our bloodlust?  Of course when you are done killing Russians we will simply walk away and leave you in the ruins, because all we care about are dead Russians and not the reconstruction of Ukraine.
There is an element of proxy war to this conflict, but it is not one we wanted.  If the objective were to destroy Russia, then we would drag this thing out for decades - that is the argument coming out of the US far right, btw, "this is a forever war where we fight til the last Ukrainian...we should get out now!"  MacGregor pretty much has been saying this from Day 1.  So all talks of "Dead Russians as Strategic Objective" and "Economic Interests - War for Cash" and "Ukraine is a Handgun", you can leave in the far right loonie bins where they belong. 
Finally, if you are telling me that Canada, under a liberal government, is spending over 2 billion, coming up on 10 percent of our annual defence spending, in the defence of your nation because "killing Russians" is our sole national interest, then I think this conversation is pretty much over. 

Closer view of T-90M “Disassembly”:
 

If that were true then why is my country spending an order of magnitude more on support than it ever saw in trade?
https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/ukraine/relations.aspx?lang=eng#
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html#
By your paradigm there is no stark national interest for Canada to spend billions in supporting your country.  Sure Russia is doing dirty but it is a country that we historically do much more trade with than Ukraine: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/canada
https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports/canada
We live under the security umbrella of the US and are 9 timezones away.  Beyond diaspora - and last we recognized that relationship it did not work out so well (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-house-speaker-apologizes-recognition-veteran-who-fought-nazis-2023-09-24/)…why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine?  A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with?
No, I reject your premise as it does not match the facts.  Do nations work toward interest?  Absolutely.  However, those interest are expressed as far more than money and fear - and they should be.  We are in this because we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now.  Where unilateral invasions are in fact against the law.  We built that world to get and stay well,  we also built it because we actually care enough about humanity that we would prefer we don’t destroy ourselves through narrow minded greed.  There is no hard geopolitical or economic reasons for Canada to be spending this amount of money on supporting your nation in this war.  There are some incredibly powerful morale and ethical ones, and as bafflingly ignorant as a we can be at times, those things still matter.
We got rid of AP landmines because they did more harm than good.  Not some weird “hey everyone let’s disarm Ukraine so Russian can maul them later - tee hee”.  Same definitely goes for nukes - sorry but Eastern Europe was a hot mess after the USSR fell and no junior partner still trying to figure which way was up was going to be keeping hands on strategic weapons.  Frankly Ukraine was not that important to anyone’s calculus in the 90s and 00s to put that together - you may recall we kinda had our hands full.  
So I think we are done here.  You want to be a bitter old man dreaming reasons why “everyone screwed you” and why “we all owe you”, I can’t stop you.  But the reality is that our sin in the west was we simply did not care.  We were focused on other things while Russia kept sticking its toes over the line while getting people hooked on cheap energy.  There was no conspiracy, there was neglect.  But Ukraine was and is an independent nation that needs to own it mistakes as well - and there were many.  In the end all that added up to an embolden Russia that leaned in to far too fast…and here we are.
We support Ukraine because we all owe it to each other to ensure that we do not fall back into dictators doing whatever they want to grab power.  We fought two of the largest wars in human history in the last century when we allowed that to happen.  It is bigger than money and geopolitics.  It is bigger than whatever grudges, bias or prejudice you bring onto this.  This is about global order and the right thing to do.

New anti-Ukraine talking point on Twitter.
As someone who has been following this war for almost two years and his lost count of how many videos I have seen related to war in Ukraine. I politely disagree with Donald Trump JR.
 

In recent interview of former Chief-in-Command Viktor Muzhenko, he told in 2018 was passed a classified document of defense strategy in case of big war with Russia, but Crimea direction didn't recognized as a particularly threatened direction. According to this documnet, main threat was assumed from Donbas direction. And this document was actual on 2022 and obviously General Staff took it for base for defense planning with some changes. 
Before this big interview with major-general Sokolov (about several months) I've read short thread in twitetr form one of officers of "South" operative command, where he sharply criticized Sokolov and his HQ, because they on all briefings, when officers clarified their tasks for a case of invasion, told tham that all these talks about war is a Russian is blackmailing and nothing will happen. Also he hinted, that Operative Command engineer-sapper service was completely incompetent and "I will not wonder if chiefe of this service will be shot out in future". After this interview some soldiers of 59th mot.inf.brigade told that Sokolov in this intervew tries to avoid own responsibility.  
Really Sokolov hadn't even these 1500 men of 59th brigade on the border - all 230 km guarded slighly more that 300 marines of 137th marine battalion, part of them were young conscripts. And all fortifications on the border were several platoon strongpoints, so against Russians in first moments of invasion stood several separate platoons on strongpoints and some number of border guards.

I try to not post much Russian propaganda anymore, but this was too much. British PMCs are now apparently involved in selling children to the Coca-Cola company. This garbage coming from someone who's president is wanted by the ICC for kidnapping Ukrainian children. 
Q-Anon level drivel.

Waiting for more details myself, but if confirmed this feels like Groundhog Day.
 
 

Thanks guys.  Guess who got tagged to do a Future of Joint Warfare piece at work?  Yep, the guy who won't shut up about it.  If Steve was particularly profit driven he would charge a membership fee for this thread.

Te best sentence Upton Sinclair ever wrote "You cannot get a man to understand something when his salary depends on is not understanding it". 

I’m not going to get too involved in the US political discussion but I will say it’s hard for me not to laugh every time I hear American people refer to “the far left” of the American political establishment.  I’m sorry but by the standards I’m familiar with American politics really doesn’t have a left wing to speak of.  From an external point of view American politics starts about as far to the right as exists in any western country and finishes with “the squad” somewhere around what would be considered the centre or maybe centre-left anywhere in Europe.
Are attempts to appeal to the US “centre” maybe failing because the political “centre” has in fact drifted so far to the right?