rocketman

I also have suspicious about AIM-120. Revenge for KAB strikes. 
Inetersesting, yesterday Russians lost Mi-28 near Dzhankoy. Crew lost. Initially was claimed about accident. Today already they say allegedly during trainig flight, group of UKR UAVs were spotted in Crimean airspace and because of S-300 prepared to engage them, missile warning was anounced for crews with order return to base immediately. But one helicopter wasted a time and was targeted by S-300 missile. It has broken on two parts after hit. So, either friendly fire, or... AIM-120 too?  

21:55 Melitopol. Powerful explosion. After this electricity is gone in the whole city.
 

Another video of Russians flat out running away. The Ukrainians seem on track to gain back most of what Russia gained all winter around Bakmuht in a week or two. And we haven't seen a single Leopard, Bradley, Cheiftan, ect in action I am aware of yet. The Russians may just be worn out.

Just another sign in a very long list - troop quality, “no ammo for Prig”/noted drops in RA indirect fire, falling ATGM stocks, and now faltering AD.  I am sure it will be blindingly obvious in hindsight - the RA is eroded and prime for operational collapse.  I suspect the UA has been slowly waging corrosive warfare all winter while everyone was watching Bakhmut.  Little bites and nibbles add up especially for stuff Russia cannot built back.
Given some of the force numbers being tossed around I am beginning to think we might actually see an offensive we recognize in the next while - which will no doubt make the tank nuts happy; however, just remember that it took months of precision deep strike shaping to allow for it.
I avoid predictions but I am confident we will at least have a decent chance of understanding what we are looking at when it happens.

The endless speculations and inescapable, pulse-rate-rising “Are we there yet?!” flood at every report from the front permits the REAL plan to be revealed here,for the first time. The UA will keep ratcheting up the suspense with local actions across the board, announcements by the Allies of more NATO weapons delivered, more hints from the government…”it’s coming…”, UNTIL:
The old guys in Russian HQs and Moscow simply cannot take it any longer. Heart attacks now down leader after leader. Generals collapse. Putin allegedly seen on a stretcher with an oxygen mask. The country panics. Leadership everywhere is collapsing in fear, jumping out of windows, dropping cigarettes. The State Duma and the Federation Council lack quorums, and the ones who do show up are screaming at each other on Russian tv. And then…
The Russian troops at the front realize something wonderful, and say “Frack it. This sucks. let’s just go home.”
Zelensky starts hinting at delivering aid to the stricken Motherland…friendly annexation of interested Russian Republics - ancient beloved Kyiv as new Capitol of the Russian Federation. Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belorussia say, “Hmmm…let’s talk”. The CSTO countries announce a meeting, to be held in Kyiv if Zelensky would be willing to host. Biden announces USA sanctions could be phased out “If conditions are met”. 
The UA units remain alert, in position, but for the first time in years no deaths are reported along the front lines. Counter Offensive ends.
 
 

Situation inside Bakhmut
UKR troops has retaken Industrial college. Heavy clashes for sсhool and kindergarden on Korsunskoho street. 
UKR troops pushed off Russians from part of Ivanivskyi forest SW Ivanivske village (southern part of forest was under Russian control). Wagners threw there own "core" units to stabilze situation
Also in Bakhmut area was destroyed Pantsyr-S1. First strike missed, but probably slightly damaged it, secons was successful
 

Some Russian milbloggers explained succes of armored attack of Azov on 8th of May against 6th and 8th companies of 72nd MRB, because they "were betrayed and thrown to zero line without ATGMs and even RPGs". But today Azov stormers issued a photos from captured positions, filled with TM-62 mines and ATGM Fagot missiles. Likely Russians either didn't have a time to set minefields or didn't expect attack and were too relaxed. So, when UKR troops suddenly attacked, they already hadn't spirit to engage them with ATGMs under direct tank fire.
 

We should have gone with a US naming convention and called it the M1.
Informally known as "Bloody Large Ordnance to Shoot at Targets Using Firecontrol of Unimaginable Precision", aka BLO-STUF-UP

"Dedushka" is obviously Putin. Many in Russia - "liberals" and some disappointed "vatniks" in joke call Putin "ded" ("grandpa") or "bunker ded"
Seriously sicking Lukashenko and Putin (or his double) on parade. Classical Soviet schizophrenic gerontocratia. 

Interesting thread on a report from independent Russian media on Russia's failing attempt to increase tank production
To paraphrase:
Can't get the workers as wages are not attracting people Falsely advertising wages so new workers leave after a month once they see the actual take home pay 'Voluntary-compulsory contributions' reduce worker's take home pay even more Lack of space is a constraint. Two new plants were promised but not built for example Difficult to get electronic components - normally 90% are imported Admittedly this evidence is from talking to workers at the various plants and not hard numbers but it does point to talk from Medvedev about 1500 annual tank production being complete and utter bollocks.  
The low wages is just weird. I would have thought with the war going as it is the Russian govt would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can make any sort of tank. And the company would be absolutely chucking money at anyone who can even spell 'welding' to attract them. So either the govt. have big financial issues, don't think things are going that badly so why pay over the odds or the company's management are fleecing the workers. Whichever it is, long may it continue.
And the 'voluntary-compulsory contribution' - that's a theft in all but name. 
 
 

That is an excellent analogy. 

Ground conditions:
...probably Donbas
... probably Zaporizhzhia oblast
 

When I watch footage like this I have to remind myself that this is not a war movie. It is incredible real life heroism.

Air Forces Command reportedly really angry about this leak from Defense Express. That's why wasn't official report about types of targets shot down over Kyiv in night on 4th May. Air Forces now officially claimed there wasn't "Kinzhal" tracked in our airspace in this night and Defense Express info is fake. But all Kyiv heard in 2:40 this triple explosion in the sky and this of course wasn't Shakhed. 
Today one serviceman of some radar or SAM brigade wrote a post in twitter (already is deleted obviously on demand), where told if Defense Express issued this info, then he also can confirm that their unit tracked "Kinzhal" on US radar, which have 600 km range. Also he told Rissians considers "Kinzhal" as hyper-sonic missile, but in real this not quite right. This missile launches when it carrier achievs hyper-sonic speed, further the missile is gradually losing own speed and on final section of trajectory has a speed higher, that usual ballistic missile, but already not hypersonic, so it can be intercepted with some probability.
Looks like, AF command didn't want make publicity this info, that now we can successfully shot down "Kinzhals". I think, US side also should be surprised.

UKR tank crew shot out position of Russian company in tree-plant and destroyed at least 6 armored tragets.
But the crew got... rebuke, because of shells overexpenditure %) Commander wrote in TikTok, when he has seen such fat target he couldn't reject himself to make small armageddon on Russian position. Allegedly he spent 78 shells (likely in two raids). Probably Russians after first attack abandoned position. So as a punishment, crew was sent to unload 2 trucks of shells. 
 
 

Huge BOOM was at 2:40 of night today. Preliminary not only Shakheds attack on Kyiv was repelled, but some missiles were shot down - no official info to this time. There are rumors, that ballistic type missiles were used on Kyiv this night, but they were intercepted by Patriots in first time. But this is not confirmed yet. 
Air raid alarm was announced hour ago. Some recon drone was shot down over Maidan half hour ago. But it suspicious looks like UKR PD-2, but it could be and Mugin-5  
 

Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
What about now?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we killing people yet?
Now?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Why aren't we killing people yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Can I have some more tank porn?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Where is my world class analysis and assessment grounded in years of practical experience and theoretical study?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Why aren't we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
More videos of dead people plz?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.
This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

South Africa warns Putin of threat of arrest should he attend BRICS Summit in person (Yahoo News)

"Bryansk, Russian train derailed after explosion". Rumours of saboteurs.
 

Personally, I think that all the talk of the probable limited success of the coming offensive is just a mind game. Lowering the expectations will make any success look the bigger. May also let the Russians feel a wrong sense of security.
My guess is we will see Ukrainian soldiers skinny-dipping in the Azov sea this year.

Heh
I once dug a pit down through a rabbit warren, lots of kyoot kittens to deal with after that.
But the worst was digging in at the training area near Singleton, in NSW. The whole area is an iron pan, so it's tink-tink-tink for hours, moving about a teaspoon of dirt at a time. Then, come dawn, we found we'd dug down through a nest of now very angry inchies. Giving up on that spot we moved a few metres away and tink-tink-tinked our way down again, this time through a nest of fire ants.
**** Australia.