TheVulture

you should delete this if you have any sense whatsoever, and hope it wasn't seen by the east coast forum admins who are probably asleep

I just wanted to take a moment to back up to the Challenger 2 discussion from Saturday, since there were a couple points I wanted to make.
The rifled gun does not make it more accurate. Modern tank rounds are fin stabilized, so they don't need to be spin stabilized. In fact, for wonky physics reasons that I don't fully understand, spinning apparently has a destabilizing effect on long rod projectiles (well, some spin still helps to stabilize it, but more than a tiny amount of spin will start destabilizing it again), which is why APFDSD rounds fired from rifled guns are actually designed to counteract the spinning. So the Challenger 2 isn't more accurate than any other modern western tank (in fact I believe it's actually less accurate than other western MBTs, though with a modern digital fire control system it's still pin-point accurate by Cold War standards). But it's easy enough to believe that it's more accurate than the T-64BVs, T-72Ms, and T-80BVs that most Ukrainian tankers would have had experience with before it arrived. The rifling also reduces the performance of kinetic energy rounds in penetrating armor relative to a smoothbore gun of the same size, though the Challenger 2 can still probably punch hard enough to deal with most Russian tanks easily enough.
The real advantage of the rifled gun is that it makes it possible to fire HESH effectively. Which is why it's puzzling that the Ukrainians apparently aren't receiving HESH ammunition. A Challenger 2 without HESH seems to be missing the point. Retaining a rifled gun into the modern day was a serious design compromise that the British army made specifically because they believed HESH was worth it. HESH (while not effective against modern MBTs) is a fantastic anti-personnel, anti-bunker, and anti-light vehicle round.

The Russians (probably even their command, who could know better if they had any interest in doing so) and their apologists in the West are also proceeding from an rather different set of 'facts', or assumptions than the people on this board:
In their looking glass version, it is Ukraine that is rapidly running out of capable troops, particularly infantry.
- ALLEGEDLY, UA leadership (officers and NCOs) was more or less wiped out over 2022, especially in the Bahmut 'grinder'. The UA are putting unwilling, ill-trained and ill-led noobs into the field, particularly non-Ukrainians.
- ALLEGEDLY, on some fronts these troops are being forcibly kept in the field by nAzov  fanatics, Mansoor Chechens and skinhead mercenaries (primarily Poles).
- ALLEGEDLY, several million bourgeois Ukrainians have fled overseas or bribed their way out of serving. 'NATO's proxy war' is extremely unpopular among Ukrainians under 30 across all demographics.
- ALLEGEDLY the Ukrainian domestic economy, which is run by (largely Jewish) oligarchs living outside the country, has never fully mobilised for war except inasmuch as it can profiteer off it.
- In any case, 'so-called Ukraine's' economy, infrastructure and society can never function separately from Greater Russia without being entirely rebuilt, ground up, and that's allegedly impossible under wartime conditions. The entire project is a scam, or at best a NATO-fed delusion dreamed up in London by, well (((((the usual suspects)))).
- ALLEGEDLY, since so-called Ukraine cannot sustain it, since 2008 UA is basically a NATO construct and puppet force, entirely dependent on NATO/NGO stocks and direction. These are now rapidly running down owing to poor discipline, wastage and pilferage.
- ALLEGEDLY, Western military organisation, experience and doctrine is ill-suited to fighting against the Russian army, and the hohols only do ok when they ignore it and fight in the Cossack (Russian) way. Giving them first line Western kit is actually an act of desperation; there is little else to send now.
- ALLEGEDLY, any quality edge the hohols might have enjoyed in 2022 in terms of drones, night vision, missiles, ISR, etc., is now largely closed and Ukrainian troops are now the ones getting trench bombed. China, being the world's workshop and wanting NATO to lose, is quietly providing huge quantities of pretty much anything Russia can't make itself.
****
Again, all these points are 95% false, so don't even bother to refute them or pretend I am advocating them. 
But negatives are by their nature (and by design) quite difficult to disprove, and there's enough 'supportive' anecdotes out there for people like McGregor and Big Serge to wave about, along with a bunch of handwavy 'you know nothing, bourgeois Western fools!' historical pseudo-analogues (Kursk, etc.).
....Since holding a different view of the world is impossible -- as others pointed out above -- the Russians choose to believe the above 'facts'.
And while folks like Rybar or Girkhin may admit Red Army performance in the SMO has also been weak, under their chosen set of facts, it's now merely a matter of bringing their 3x weight advantage fully to bear, and holding on before NATO's puppets, wait for it....
Collapse.
Like I said, don't bother to beat up this straw man. The point is, they can 'find' their own facts if they choose to, and have done so.

Of course the NYT has picked this moment to expound endlessly on the dangers of cluster munitions. They have two interrelated and deeply held misconceptions. The first is that Russia hasn't already mined the front lines on an unimaginable scale. The second is that Ukraine had some mythical better choice that didn't involve the U.S. Air Force joining this war.  
 

Pfft. The British army were still doing bayonet charges in 2011. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bayonet-charge-foils-enemy-ambush

Pfft. The British army were still doing bayonet charges in 2011. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bayonet-charge-foils-enemy-ambush

Pfft. The British army were still doing bayonet charges in 2011. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bayonet-charge-foils-enemy-ambush

Pfft. The British army were still doing bayonet charges in 2011. 
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bayonet-charge-foils-enemy-ambush

I don't understand -- what is believed to have been missed that was something important?
 

Bloody hell! If you can, it's worth reading the whole thread as there is images embedded. Suffice it to say, the whole idea that the Ukrainians would succeed if only they did it the NATO way is questionable (i.e. bollocks). This would appear to be a tough nut to crack.
"Translation:
Much has been written about the battles in the South. I wouldn't say that this is the case where it's better to see once (or multiple times) than to hear/read about it many times. Especially through the eyes of the frontline units. A thread about battles from the perspective of aerial reconnaissance:
Environment. Steppe. Fields, tree lines. Slight elevations and dips, villages, small rivers. Minefields. Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing.
Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there's something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it's necessary to determine the priority of the target
There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible
There has been a great deal of talk about fortifications and minefields. Every tree line has been dug up. On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We're not just talking about trenches. There's an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even undeground tunnels in some places
In each tree line, there's a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more "sophisticated" ones, all lying in wait for infantry.
Once again, it's crucial to emphasize that we're specifically discussing a system of trenches, interconnected by passageways and pathways. These pathways facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition. As for what remains unexcavated, it's mined. All of this must be navigated to make progress forward.

For those who are "overly smart" and believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took an incredibly long time to drive the Russians out of the village of Robotyne, they must have missed the defense system that needed to be overcome in order to push the russians away from the Mariupol highway and gradually approach the village, encircle it, and finally seize control. Truly, a monumental task has been accomplished.

The russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. Paths are cleared for ingress, and sappers gradually clear the area.
Frequently, the hidden "surprises" detonate during shelling, triggered by fires that start due to the shelling (weeds, shrubs, and trees catch fire, setting off tripwires). At times, we ourselves discover and call in sappers to clear specific areas.
There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, but the issue of initial setbacks is overlooked. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, even due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.
There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, I'll skip the topic of initial setbacks. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, especially due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.
These actions are justified by the fact that they save lives. I spoke with a soldier who survived two direct hits on a Bradley during shelling. Even the most critically damaged equipment is recovered and taken for repairs. You can replace a piece of metal, even if it's expensive, but you can't repair a human life
Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery.
They hunt for evacuation teams – both vehicles and stations. Right under our noses, they hit an armored vehicle, and an evacuation vehicle arrived for the guys. They had to maneuver in a tight spot, moving very slowly on a narrow road, avoiding going off-road into a mined field. Taking risks as well. Fortunately, they managed to get them out.
KAB's are one of the biggest fears. The russians use them extensively. I can't speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. They don't hesitate to simply fire on roads. Forward defenses in settlements are constantly under shelling.
The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB's. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles. 
The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. Only a palisade remained, and a well-made trench ceased to be usable.
The russians use a standard tactic for their armor. The route to the firing position is determined, usually in a way that keeps the vehicles under visual cover of the tree lines and eventually positions them in an open space for shooting. They quickly expend their ammunition and retreat
Vehicle cannot be completely concealed. Dust clouds are visible during movement, and the vehicles can be seen shifting between tree lines, while drones provide visibility as well. The main task here is to execute the firing mission quickly enough to prevent artillery targeting or counterattacks using FPV or ATGMs.
I understand why the russians are intensively butthurt due to the loss of the village with six streets. They put in significant effort to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing. Defending is easier according to all norms. On the other hand, we're putting in a tremendous effort to break through. And when we succeed, it shows that our efforts are paying off
Thank you for your attention. I might continue sharing in the future."
 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

Their are multilayered information ops being run by both sides, there may more than two sides. At this exact moment I am not believing a whole lot of anything except geolocated footage that doesn't have nine obvious cuts in it. Personally I am currently applying this filter to anything that originates in Washington, Kyiv, or Moscow. There are just to many reasons for any all of them to be less than truthful right this second. Triply so with Prig dead and The Pickle enjoying the comforts of some FSB sub basement cell.
Edit: To be sure, they both deserve even worse...

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 
It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

And I think there's been unclear reporting on numbers too. There were 10 people on board: 7 passengers and 3 crew. Some places have been reporting 10 passengers (meaning people on board; crew plus actual passengers) and then that getting repeated as 10 passengers plus 3 crew for 13 total. Which is wrong.

Best guess given what we have seen.

So based on road infrastructure break through to Tokmak and one has expanding operational options.  The greatest Russian military weakness of this war is manoeuvre.  They really suck at it.  They can drive but rapid manoeuvre to effect is not their strong point.  Their artillery and ISR are not set up for it and their C2 is badly built for it.  I would also bet money that their logistics can't support, especially with stuff constantly blowing up in the backfield.  The Russians are good at static warfare.  Digging in and sending wave after wave to die.  Or digging in like a tick and making life difficult.  IF the UA can break through then they can effectively cut that corridor as long as they force the RA into reactive situation that will require rapid manoeuvre. In the area we are talking about that is Tokmak.  Vasylivka is a good secondary because it also greatly expands operational options.
Take Tokmak and Melitopol is 40 kms away, they could sweep that area with ISR and artillery.  This would effectively force the RA MSR along the M14, plus any back country roads...that is a narrow branch to sit on, and the other guy is on the truck with a hand saw.  Could they keep up tempo? Going to have to or the RA will just dig in like a big red blob and they will have to do this all over again next spring.  They do not need to take Melitopol.  In fact that would play to Russia's strength of digging in.  Cut it off and Kherson the place.  Keep expanding the option spaces and get M14 within gun range and this thing is over as far as the strategic land bridge is concerned.

And preferably Utkin too since he was also on the official passenger manifest, for what that's worth. 

GUR clarified own words about "operation is ongoing". 
We conduct a complex of actions, this is not story of one day. Yesterday we destroyed S-400, today we landed our troops in Mayak village. Operation is ongoing, so no details for now. This is complex work, which shows we can reach Crimea not only with a weapon, but also with troops. Today all tasks were acomplished, our troops withdrew without losses   

Can you all take this North Africa DAK red herring to another thread, s.v.p.?

Wot coastal defence doing?
Sounds like a successful special forces raid.  It's been a bad news week for Russia on all fronts.

Maybe it's just meant to make battle damage assessment harder: doesn't help the mobiks, but does make it harder to count how many are left,  which might make the Ukrainians more cautious in the advance. 

For the sake of curiosity I took a look at that YouTube channel. It seems to be the same two video titles for the last 9 months.
"Ukraine is about to collapse"
"Russian Army destroys Ukrainian Army"
"Ukraine is collapsing now"
"Russian Army annihilates Ukrainan Forces"
etc.
Sounds like the German Wochenschau from the 1940s, just replace Russian Army with Victorious Wehrmacht.
Truly, seems to be another Western guy like Scott Ritter who sold himself, body and soul, to Russian media.
Really not worth to check out.

Looks like they have been hitting the Kerch birdge with naval drones:
 

No, as he has explained several times, he cares which system he lives under. The differences between the Netherlands, Germany, France and Denmark in that part of Europe are negligible, and life under any of them would be about the same.
Would it be worth going to war with any of those other three for the "honour" of a slightly different passport? No.
And if Russia were a modern secular welfare state with a functional democracy and rule of law then life while holding a Russian passport would also be about the same, and also not worth a war.

Seriously? I literally answered this in the next two sentences.
Actually I wanted to answer your other post but... this now makes me too upset to answer in a non-snarky way. Let's leave it at that and anyway, everything I'd write is somewhere in one of my other posts...

And that consequence is determined by exactly the factors Butschi mentioned, not by what was written in a treaty in 1991.
I think you are mistaking the real factors (values, utility, law) that make a derivative concept like borders useful for the derivative concept itself.
I do not care if my home is part of Germany, the Netherlands, France or Denmark. It could be the United States of Europe for all I ccare. It could be Ameropa or Eumerica even. Maybe it will be in 150 years if Russia or China doesn't manage to apply "divide and conquer" to the West until then.
But if Russia (in a parallel dimension where Russia could) attacks Poland, and my number is called up because NATO declares article 5, I will go readily to the mobilisation office, not because I value the soil of Poland, but because I want to help protect the Polish people from Russian occupation.