Retributar

http://www.onwar.com/ Allied and Axis GDP Ralph Zuljan A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hope to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice. Consider, for example, the comments of Mark Harrison who asserts that "the Allies translated their economic superiority into overwhelming advantage on the battlefield." On the surface, a look at the numbers Harrison provides confirm the belief that the Axis did not stand a chance of winning the Second World War. Consider the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP presented in the following table: Wartime GDP of the Great Powers: http://www.onwar.com/articles/f0302.htm 1938 to 1945 in International Dollars and 1990 Prices (billions)* Country________1938_1939_1940_1941_1942_1943_1944__1945 USA____________800_869__943__1094_1235_1399_1499__1474 UK_____________284_287__316___344__353__361__346___331 France__________186_199__164___130__116__110___93___101 Italy____________141_151__147___144__145__137__117____92 USSR___________359_366__417___359__274__305__362___343 Germany________351_384__387___412__417__426__437___310 Austria__________24___27__27_____29___27___28___29____12 Japan__________169__184__192___196__197__194__189___144 Allied/Axis GDP___2.4__2.3__2.1____2.0___2.1__2.3___3.1___5.0 *Based on Table 1 found in Mark Harrison. Harrison arrives at the annual ratios with the following equations. In 1938-9, the Allied GDP consists of USA + UK + France + USSR; Axis GDP consists of Germany + Austria + Italy + Japan. In 1940, half of the French GDP is allotted to the Allies and half is given to the Axis. In 1941-3, Allied GDP consists of USA + UK + USSR; Axis GDP consists of Germany + France + Austria + Italy + Japan. For 1944, Italian GDP is allotted to the Allies. In 1945, the GDP of Italy and France are added The GDP story of World War II is richer than such analysis suggests. GDP is a rough measure of economic power and decision makers probably make their determinations based on the results of the previous year. From this assumption the following statements may be derived from the estimates of GDP during the war years. In 1939, France and the UK confronted Germany (which included Austria) over Poland. The ratio of Anglo-French GDP to that of Germany/Austria was 1.25 for 1938. Allied GDP was superior to that of Germany/Austria. However, on the eve of war, Nazi Germany announced a treaty with the USSR. The Nazi-Soviet Pact certainly neutralized the economic weight of the USSR and it may have been interpreted as a German/Austrian alliance with the Soviet Union. In the latter case, the ratio of Allied/Axis GDP shifts to 0.64 and the Allied expectation is to lose. This rationalizes both the motivation of Hitler's solicitation of Stalin's blessing for the division of Poland and Hitler's expectation that the Anglo-French alliance would not declare war over the German/Austrian invasion of Poland, in terms of GDP. The willingness of France and the UK to engage Germany/Austria suggests that the former interpretation held sway with Allied decision makers. During the battle of France, in 1940, Italy joined the war on the side of Germany/Austria. In terms of 1939 GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio now stood at 0.86 because of the addition of Italian GDP to the Axis. In a matter of weeks, France then agreed to an armistice because of Axis success on the battlefield. With the loss of France to the Allies, the Allies to Axis ratio dropped to 0.51 as the UK stood alone against the combined economic power of Germany/Austria and Italy. With the addition of French GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio plummets to 0.38 and an Axis victory seems economically certain. British intransigence, epitomized by Churchill's poignant bluster hid the hopelessness of the Allied cause from the public. Realistically, only the hope of a Soviet or American entry into the war on the Allied side provided any solace. The fact that a majority of great power GDP remained neutral at the beginning of 1941 gave the Allies hope and threatened the Axis. Hitler altered that with the Axis invasion of the USSR. Adding the 1940 GDP of the USSR to that of the UK shifted the Allies to Axis great power GDP ratio to 1.31, giving the Allies the economic advantage lost with the entry of Italy in 1940. However, with French GDP included in the Axis tally, the ratio was 1.01. Hitler said of the war with the Soviet Union that "the world will hold its breath." Only two great powers were neutral in the latter half of 1941, the USA and Japan. In the fall, when defeat of the USSR seemed very possible, the Japanese were considering war with the Americans. Japanese decision makers may have been able to reconcile themselves to a war with the US, regardless of the incredible disparity in GDP, because of the global balance of great power GDP. By siding with the Axis and assuming the swift defeat and incorporation of the USSR by the Axis in Europe, Japan would provide enough GDP to the Axis side for an advantage in the ratio of Allied to Axis GDP. With the addition of Soviet GDP to the Axis, Japan engaged on the Axis side and the United States on Allied side, the ratio would be at 0.94. At the end of 1941, the Axis had every reason to believe the war against the Allies was economically winnable. The reality of an undefeated USSR, however, gave Churchill every reason to say "we will win after all," after the attack on Pearl Harbor. For the first time, the Allies had a commanding GDP advantage of 1.83 in the Allies to Axis ratio of great power GDP. From this time onwards, the Allies retained a substantial economic advantage over the Axis . This analysis shows that while by 1942 there was a substantial Allied economic advantage, measured in GDP, this did not exist at the beginning of the war in 1939. In fact for a period of time the Axis commanded greater GDP than the Allies. Suggesting that the Allies had a GDP superiority from the start is wrong and misses the dynamics of World War II. It is worth noting that from a lead of 1.25 in 1939, the Allies were reduced to a miserable 0.38 by 1941. There was nothing preordained about the recovery of GDP that followed. It is unreasonable to believe that Allied decision makers were particularly confident of economic dominance until well into 1942, regardless of their public pronouncements.

jon_j_rambo ... That 'bad news' stabbed me in the heart too!. At the very least, he had a full life!.

It happen's frequently!, just keep trying and eventually it will be back up!.

One thing to keep in mind with the ME262, the KingTiger, etc...and other advanced weapon's,...is that their quantity should...i think, be limited according to what History Tell's us that they actually produced,...or were theoretically capable of producing under varying condition's and changed situation's/circumstance's!.

A 'Great-Effort' "Fantomas !!!", even though i still prefer the 3-D Image Look!.

Some of your question's will need to be answered by 'Hubert Cater' , & up to him to make the design-changes to allow for simulation's in different time period's!. Now, it's been forever since i studied 'Waterloo', but i will try to do my best!. #1. To control those 'Strong-Points' is to a great degree, to be able to have control or have influence over the Entire-Battle-Field, and so to some extent control over these 'Strong-Points' should "UP!" the bonuses [Morale or what-ever to increase the Combat Results in favor of the Controlling Player] ...that would in-effect...incorporate the 'Bonus-Effect' to the controlling player to assist their side to help them win the Battle!. #2. This is up to 'Hubert' to find a solution to the Square Vrs. Cavalry situation!. Infantry not formed into Square's of course should be quite or reasonably vulnerable to a Cavalry-Attack!. #3. Mud is Mud for everyone, including Cavalry, i was not aware that Horse-Cavalry was exempt from the effect's of 'Mud!'. #4. 'Spotting!', another 'Hubert' fix is required here!. Look's like we need a 'Line-Of-Sight-Fix!'. #5. Your sort of right over-all, but all i can tell you is that massed volley's of fire-arms was sort of effective at 300 ft or Yard's? and was quite effective at 150 ft or Yard's?. #6. Yes, MUD should blunt the effectiveness of long-range-Artillery[Cannon-Ball], but as the day would wear on, the ground would dry, thus allowing Artillery to then be more effective!. Air-Burst-Canister grenade like shot [Probably a closer range ammunition???] would not suffer the nullifying effect's of Mud like Cannon Balls Would. Not only do Cannon-Ball's tear up the Earth and throw hard chunks of earth and throw stones around that kill people, but they also bounce on the ground, dismembering the victim's in their path if not killing them outright!. #7. Yes forest's should Hinder movement, and i personally would not allow artillery to move through them unless there was a low-level path-way at least to allow minimal movement!.

Thank's to those like SidiusPOA who are at the ready to make a meaningful real difference where it count's as practical/useful information!. Now!...In rememberance of those who remembered those who did them right - EG: 'Roman Citizenry',...they knew how to appreciate a good-act or work's, so..." Hail!!!...SidiusPOA!"

Im no expert on this, but it seems to me that possibly the resolution of your images might be quite high,...therefore, then using up a lot of memory storage space. Is there a way to redo the same image at reduced resolution?.

Yeeeeaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!....so wake up!, and smell the coffee!. Get a Triple-Espresso!.

If weather is ever to be an important factor for amphibious invasion's, it might be important to keep in mind that the Allies had meteorologist's in Iceland, or Greenland or both, and so were then in a better postion to be able to determine the most-likely weather condition's in the English Channel, such as for the 'Invasion of Normandy!'. The German's of course did not have access to those area's to assist them to better help determine the regional weather probabilities, so as in the 'Invasion of Normandy' situation, they would be more likely to get a false determination on the actual outcome of the upcoming weather situation!. So here, the Allies would get a better, more likely correct prognostication, and the German's would be more likely to get a less reliable weather prediction result. So for game purpose's, let's say that the Allied Meteorologist's would get a 90% prediction of clear-sunny invasion weather and the German's at the same time would get a 75% prediction of clear-sunny weather and a 25% prediction of Stormy/Windy or unfavourable invasion weather!. This way, both sides would get different weather forecast results, and would then tailor their preparation's accordingly!. Let's say that the Allies get the 90% prediction for clear-sunny sky's [Great Invasion Weather], but the probabilities formula then delivers them...instead a Stormy/Windy day, then the Allied Invasion Force would take a hit both in their ability to direct the Amphibious Forces to their designated Landing Zones [Might have then a reduced amount of landing resources being able to actually disembark], as well as higher Disembarkation Losses!. [ November 06, 2006, 07:02 PM: Message edited by: Retributar ]

The Bizarre Weather Freak Condition has evidently bitten you ' vector ', as well as other's, so let's hear what they have to say about this problem!.

Not only that Blashy , but ' vector ' has a valid argument, in that the German's, no-matter what, would even...at best have been inadequately - prepared to carry out a robust invasion attempt!. From what i can recall of this situation, it is that the German's mostly commandered anything from all of Europe that could float!. Also, they had to 'Modify' barges and other vessel's to carry vehicular equipment!. Many of these potential invasion craft were also not specifically designed to negotiate the English Channel!. So, i would say, that yes, it was not impossible to Invade England, but it would have had to have been done under quite favourable weather condition's, coupled with strong 'Air' & 'Sea Escort!'. Someone need's to do an in-depth study on actual German Amphibious capability for the proposed Operation 'Sea-Lion' event!. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sealion Operation Sealion: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia It is also important to note that the transport ships to be used were, amongst others, primarily river barges, as the Germans had no specialised landing craft. This would have limited the quantity of artillery and tanks that could have been transported, and restricted operations to times of good weather . In addition, the losses in men and material suffered by the German airborne troops over the Low Countries in May during the Battle of the Netherlands could not be replaced in time for the planned operation . It should be remembered that the Normandy landings in 1944 were a close run thing and that was with years of preparation, the largest invasion force ever assembled, total Air and Naval superiority and the Germans fighting in occupied France (the French Resistance etc) and being involved on multiple fronts .

Again, as alway's i would like to see 'weather' as being an important factor in conducting amphibious assault's, with the appropriate consequence's applied for carrying through with it...in less than ideal weather and channel oceanographic condition's!.

Thank's for the 'Update' Fartknock3r on your 'Pacific War Campaign', as alway's we are never overjoyed to hear that your project or any other project is suspended, but sometime's that is just the way it's going to go!. Thank's for making the attempt anyway!.

I offer an idea!, if someone is cheating, i would like to have an in-built security programme in the game that hopefully could detect some of the nefarious cheater activities!. So when the opposing player get's his next turn to do, he will at first get a message indicating what the specific infraction is, as well as this is all taking place, Clint-Eastwood's "Hang Them High!" movie music would kick in and a 'Hangmans-Noose' would appear on the screen!. The offending player could then be brought to justice!.

I have to agree with Hubert Cater !, Those 'Japanese' unit's look very " impressive !". Ive just started playing the game, so it will be a while before i can formulate any opinion's or idea's for it!. " Outstanding effort !" in anycase SidiusPOA !.

I have been making that argument forever arado234 , but so far no-one seem's to care!. I agree that invasion's should only be permissable during certain time's of year, but...also as you mentioned, that anything under less than ideal weather-channel-condition's/circumstance's should exact a cost of some sort!.

Good Thinking TaoJah!, we need more idea's like that!.

There will alway's be someone who will search for a way to cheat, so just keep track as best you can as to what is happening in your game, if something seem's off or wrong, bring it to the attention of the Discussion Group here, and then hopefully a fix or circumvent can be arrived at to re-right the perceived problem!.

CSS !!!,...your'e pain is well understood and you have sympathy here!. First, contact the above web-address by BioWizard , then the sales dept and let them know of your situation!. They should be able to do what-ever is necessary, so that you will then be able to re-install your game!.

Your are right Blashy , but your out of sequence, the Cavalry attack took place much earlier than the final assualt that you are reffering to!.

Blashy!,... if 'Napoleone' was truly in charge of his troop's movement's or action's,... i can guarantee you that the 'Battle of Waterloo' would have been won by him!. Please do some research on this subject, as im very sure that at the time that all of these mistakes were being made, Napoleone was out of commission, as im quite sure that he had a very bad case of Hemhorroid's, so then Marshall Ney and his other General's took over the command of the field. When Napoleone was able to finally make it back to the scene of the action, he was in great-disgust at what he had saw happening, and was dismayed at Ney for ordering the Cavalry to attack without Artillery and Infantry support!.

A bold undertaking Kuniworth!, If 'The Battle of Waterloo'had not been pre-empted by such a heavy rain the night before, the battle would have started much earlier the following day, instead it started at something like around noon-time!. If it had started earlier, the Prussian's could not have arrived in such good time so as to decide the battle!.

Industrial output and production numbers are one concern, the other that i have...is that if now you rely on those numbers, but now at the same time make all militaries equal for the same level, then the 'Technological' and 'Military-Skills' difference's are wiped out!. If all player's are equated with the same Tech & Military abilities, then using Industrial Output and Production numbers alone will make this game very unequal and totally unrealistic!.

Ive got an unacceptable name for an 'Alliance!',...does anyone have the stomach for the name... "Knuckle-Dragger's-Elite!".