Blazing 88's

what?  this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state.  Patience.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/27/republicans-support-ukraine-war/
Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than a year ago, the anti-Ukraine right has been working to convince the American people and the Republican Party that it is not in the United States’ interest to support Ukraine. They are failing miserably.
The House recently held its first votes on aid to Ukraine since the GOP took over in January — and on vote after vote, the vast majority of Republicans repeatedly voted to beat back amendments proposed by the anti-Ukraine faction.
I'm still up on my hill, US support for Ukraine is solid.

Another Terra Unit video from the Bakhmut front illustrating that drone bombers are hardly the wunderwaffe that large amounts of brief, edited clips might make them appear:
 

Full yesterday video of elimination of two Russian squads of 83rd air-assault brigade in southern part of Klishchhivka. First squad at the beginning of video already almost wiped out, BMD-2 as "taxi" disembarks next group and runs away. Next probably UKR mortars shell Russians from the heights near the village and since some time the second squad already dead. 
Today Russian bloggers told about Klishchiivka has been fallen since mobics abandoned own positions. But UKR sources didn't confirm that. Later one Russians TG wrote, Russian troops organized counter attacks with VDV and BARS, so battle is continuing. UKR TG says trooppers of 80th air-assault brigade mop up the village, but havn't full control over it yet. He also wrote Russians troops in the village are in desperate situation, they suffered terrible losses, but still fiercely fight and reject to surrender.
UKR troops also had success near Andriivka village next to south from Klishchiivka, seizing large strongpoint west of it. 
 

Russian Ka-52 was shot down today by marines of 38th brigade on Donbas. 
Russian TG Fighterbomber confirmed the loss of helicopter along with the crew. Interesting he and TG Helicopterpilot rejected all Ukrainaian claims about six Ka-52, which allegedly were shot down on the southern front, since offensive is started.

UPD. According Russian sources, Ka-52 was shot down with three missiles, launched from Stormer (probably this exaggregation as Stormer hit the target with three kinetic "darts"). In composition of the crew was very competent and skilled commander in enough high rank. I think, we will know soon who it was.

UKR SOF show strikes on Russian targets, which were spotted by them
There is rare and valuable equipmnent on the video:
1. EW Triada-2S (satellite communication channels jamming)
2. MLRS Grad
3. Early warning surviellance radar P-18
4. Four Russian BMPs, being hit by one shell
5. D-30 howitzer
6. Survielance optical system on the mast
7. EW/ELINT Leer-2 (tactical level, ELINT+supression/hijacking)  
 

The map of visually geolocated destroyed artillery/MLRS/air defense assets since starting of UKR offensive from 9th of May. Russians, commenting this, complain that Russian industry is unable to replenish quickly such losses in artillery, when UKR will give replenishments for destroyed armor and soon can achieve 1:10 rate of losses in artillery and this threaten to catastrofical consequences for motorized troops

Never mind. The_Capt was right; the big red button is the better choice.

with their army at full strength and the UA scrambling they couldn't take Kiev so yeah I am willing to go out on a limb here and say there isn't much of a northern threat.

National Guard squad takes cover under fire in the trench or big crater, their armor (captured BTR-82A) arrived to cover them and evacuate. This sound of 30 mm gun almost over the head %) This is probably near Novopokrovka village, Zaporizhzhia oblast, were sevaral NG units are involved
 
 

WP interview with Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, where he made several tough messages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/ukraine-military-valery-zaluzhny-russia/
Zaluzhny said, he uses weapons made in Ukraine for the frequent strikes across the border that Kyiv never officially acknowledges as its own.
“To save my people, why do I have to ask someone for permission what to do on enemy territory?” Zaluzhny recently told The Washington Post in a rare interview. “For some reason, I have to think that I’m not allowed to do anything there. Why? Because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will … use nuclear weapons? The kids who are dying don’t care.
“This is our problem, and it is up to us to decide how to kill this enemy. It is possible and necessary to kill on his territory in a war. If our partners are afraid to use their weapons, we will kill with our own. But only as much as is necessary.”
 
Zaluzhny, however, isn’t shy about his intent to reclaim Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed in 2014, even as some Western officials privately worry about what Putin’s response would be if Ukrainian troops ever reached the territory. “As soon as I have the means, I’ll do something. I don’t give a damn — nobody will stop me,” Zaluzhny said.
 
 
 

One would think that totalitarian empire keeping largest mechanized force on this planet in constant readiness for 45 years, with only one goal in mind- offensive (preferably over nuked battlefield), would be enough to convince some people Russians indeed were/are a threat to the West as well. This studio even made entire game about it.
Just to give addendum to previous discussion about validity of muscovite danger. Since perhaps many viewers of this forum not reading Russian are not familiar with state of collective current Russian psyche, as expressed in myriads of their TV channels, internet discussons on media platforms as well as in private conversations, it is worth to reitorate how things stand now:
1. Large swath of population seems to be convinced they already wage kinetic war with NATO, but limited in scope to Ukraine. Kinetic, not just proxy- NATO officers and special forces are everywhere in banderistan, according to them. This notion is far more widespread than just core nationalists; it is common among less literate strata of population, probably a minority but still large, maybe 20-40% overall (no hard and undisputable sociological data make assessment difficult). But surely many more than 50% are at least convinced this is purely defensive (= rightous or even holy) war ont heir behalf that West started, though. For quite many Russians hot "war with NATO", even if geographically limited*, wouldn't be totally new quality, but just formalization of current state of affairs. Many would probably even be relieved in that case- mental blocks nurished by propaganda of Great War for motherland, heroic soldiers, imagined social solidarity would finally fit in right place. It is minority of population, but growing.
*Yes- basically CMBS setting.
2. I don't even enumerate soft actions like spy attacks, use of nerve agents on foreign soil (let's count this as "Whoopsie..."), countless provocation by planes and ships, political meddling, etc. Many of them in other historical context, and with actors less patient than the Western states, could lead to war by themselves.
3. They made artificial flood on largest river in Europe, stationed tanks in the centre of Chernobyl zone and are possibly not far from considering blowing another nuclear power plant.
4. Western Europe in popular Russian imagination (especially older generations) starts on Elbe, not even Odra river. Just a reminder for our German friends. Reason? Beginning of this post. ^
5. Again, perhaps many people are unfamiliar with Russian media (or understandably unwilling to dive in this sewer)- potentiall use of WMD was long ago inernalized and is opnely being discussed daily. To the point they have special programms in public TV (with folks who claim to personally dine with the Tsar) dedicated only to this issue of "preventive" nuclear attacks, with real specialists discussing potentiall fallout, how many nukes would be needed to blow off Amsterdam, Hague ("Hehe, you know why..."  as Skabaieva once giggled joyously with her guests) or London. Highest Russian officials, including twice the president of this country, routinely throw their nuclear phantasies publically. Public, sory for words, intellectual mastrubation with Cossacs drinking their horses in Paris 200 years ago or Soviet Army soldiers "teaching German women proper behaviour" in 1945 are part of very normal, mainstream discourse now.
Now of course this is internal game and a pose to bargain something, one could say; they surely really don't mean it, right? Perhaps. But sole fact that nuclear devastation became a casual topic they are very proud upon, touched even during morning breakfast with kids or being shared by Russian teenagers with girlfriends in chats, should make us much more worried of Russia than we did for last 30 years. I am pretty sure many professional people dealing with MAD in Washington and other places are scratching their heads how to proprely assess what is real in this nev environment, and how to differentiate between real and token danger. Muscovia AD 2023 is much less predicatble even than late Soviet Union in this respect. Especially after we saw how its internal system of power is vulerable in last months.
So yeah- even if you live in charming Provence countryside, well-connected commercial megalopolis like Amsterdam/London/Berlin or some Greek island- it doesn't matter, Russian madness and never satisfacted urge to being proper Empire can reach you in various ways.  Don't fool yourself folks; there are many more ways to do this than just conventional military power.
 
Sorry for long post. As a bonus, clip of Kornets bouncing off of Leopards 2A6 :
 

Start your research at the Second Coalition 1798–1801 and work your way up. I'm not even going to waste space detailing the treaty of Tilsit (1807) and the Tzar's decision to ignore it in 1809...
You're saying something is true doesn't make it so. Understand history. Facts matter.

Historically Russia only attacked countries on it's Western border after being attacked itself?
If that ain't a remark to laugh about, I don't know what is.😐
 

🤣

I keep reading about how Ukraine is fighting this war on the West behalf. No, they are fighting this war to stop Russia from invading/annexing their country. They are fighting it for their own behalf (fortunately).
Yes we also have interests in it, but please stop the framing. Ukrainians are doing the dying, they have decided to do it, we didn't need to convince m or pay m to do it.
 

Seems like something is on the horizon. We will learn in 48 hours or even earlier I guess. Looks good for me.
 
 Kulebas post:
 
 

pretty sure those duds will cause much less issues long term than what russians did by mining every single meter of the frontlines with the whole USSR stock of AP mines. Breaches through that crap will be only meters wide and who knows how deep and maybe a hundred meters around them will be cleared, but a 1000 km line will not and walking through fields of Zaporizhya will cause dead and wounded for decades to come.

Dropping clusters in there is like dropping a stick of wood into a burning forest.

The line Nesterianka - Kopani - Robotyne and next village to south - Novoprokopivka lay on highest points of the ridge. Robotyne - 145 m, Novoprokopivka - 158 m. Starting line of attack for UKR troops was on the mark about 95-105 m. Zaporizhzhia oblast in this place is not flat steppe - but further to south - Tokmak and Melitopol - yes. Seizing this ridge will get advantage  

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1677633626689732610?s=20

That’s what closed loop control systems look like right up until the moment they fail catastrophically, particularly if maintaining the control loop depends on an expendable resource, like fuel or mobiks.  Everything looks like it’s going to be ok, then the control propellant runs out and you pancake in the desert.
As has been pointed out many times both here and elsewhere, Ukraine has only committed a small fraction of their newly raised forces and have been steadily corroding the C2 and artillery resources of RU from a distance.  As Russia runs low on reserves, holes will develop and Russia will have to either let Ukraine break through or shuffle troops around, making new holes to exploit.

Pardon my words, but the balls on this man to venture to Snake Island….for those who can’t see the video,  Zelensky visited Snake Island, leaving behind wreaths to honor the fallen. Did so by boat.
 

translation : Russia is clusterfk'd

Forgive them Lord, for they know not what they are talking about.  
But seriously can we not jump on the “THIS WILL SWEEP THE RUSSIANS FROM THE EARTH!!!” band wagon again.  And then when they do not result in immediate Ukrainian victory over a weekend we don’t have to do the “OMG Ukraine is DOOOMED because my favourite weapon/system/vehicle of the week is not chasing the Russians back to Moscow!!”