Blazing 88's

Along with this fighters of 3rd brigade say Russians moved reinforcements, which fight back fiercely and because of this our advance slowing down. For today we had some gains, but Russians reject to surrender and no prisoners today. 

Russian TG reports: "on Orekhov-Tokmak direction our troops are trying to push off enemy infantry from captured by them our forward posiotions. Alas, we have losses, this is naturally for such dense clashes. Artillery of AFU doesn't reduce own intencivity"

48 minute video! only had time to skim it but there is a lot here. Including english subtitles!

If they're smart they'll avoid Toronto. No one deserves the Maple Leafs inflicted on them....

Ingenious, and can double as spaced armour/ anti-loitering munitions net:
 

This or the cow-delivered mines made them slip.

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.
I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.
Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:
https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 
Here is the summary:
General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders  Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany  the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD  German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise.  Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 
 

Ah special civil war in Russia. It was a long long time coming.

Looks like initial phase of UKR offensive already began.
This video appeared today in official military media: "Plans like silence. There will be no begining anouncement"
Different reports of Russian milbloggers of UKR probes near Avdiivka, Velyka Novosilka direction
Enemy went in the breakthrough near Donetsk: tanks and infantry of AFU attecked on Avdiivla flanks

UKR TG confirms: We have successes on Avdiivka [direction], guys are conducting mop-up with kamikadze drones
Velyka Novosilka direction: UKR troops attacked our positions and could captured one of them. They suffered tangible losses, but incease own presence on breakthgrough section, trying to develop own achievements
Other source told UKR attacked on this direction with infantry, supported by 10 of tanks and light armor.

Other report from this place. In short, two companies with support of 3-5 tanks heavy attack our positions near Neskuchne, trying to breakthrough our minefileds. There is havy clashes, our artillery and aviation work intesivlely.

UKR officila info, but likely this happened 1-2 days ago
UKR troops repelled enemy atatcks on Svatove direction and in own turn advanced on 400 m

On other hand, Russians activated own offensive efforts in Maryinka. Reportedly arrived Kadyrov troops intensively attack from early morning with aviation and MLRS support.

 
 
 

"Tiger" somewhere near Vinnytsia )))
 

Reportedly Russians deliverd 1000 FPV drones to Belgorod, from where they likely will be share among units of Troops Groupingh "West", which activated enough in last two weeks on Kupiansk direction and even could push back UKR forces, capturing small village Masiutivka and nearby territory. 
According to Kostiantym Mashovets, TG "West" now has next forces:
- 3 moror-rifle and naval infantry brigades
- 10 motor rifle and tank regiments  
- 11 motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops (actually more just "rifle" than "motor-rifle")
- 5 separate motor-rifle battlions of Territorial Troops
- 2 BARS battallions
- 1 PMC battalion-level unit.
In reserve: 2 motor-rifle regoments and 1 rifle regiment
Most of "regular" units are represented by 1st Guard tank army, 20th Guard CAA and some units of 6th CAA. These are 2nd guard motor-rifle division, most units of 4th guard tank division, 47th tank division, 3rd motor-rifle division, 27th motor-rifle brigade, elements of 25th motor-rifle brigade and other.    
All these forces have about 49 000 of personnel, up to 400 tanks (about 25 % of them under repairng), 406 (350 according other info) armored vehciles, up to 430 artillery sysstems over 100 mm, 110 MLRS, 8 operative-tactical missiles launchers.
Probably TG "West" can try to push UKR froces behind R-07 road on the section Kupiansk - Novoselivske and their firthe objective can be restoring of defense line along Oskol river - in cooperation with Russian troops, which have been conducting offensive actions on Kreminna - Zarichne direction.
To TG "West" are subordinated "border covering forces" - Operative Groups "Brinask", "Belgorod", "Kursk", which have additionally up to 23000 of personnel, 88 tanks, 340 armored vehciles, 350 artillery pieces and 88 MLRS.
So, according to Mashovets opinion, UKR troops should allow Russians to start their offensive efforts here, to tie their forces. But this "allowing" shoul be controlled and probably "Belgorod offensive" of RVC is a part of the complicated game. Also he told now in Russian General Staff opinions are divided 50/50. One part claims UKR offensive is a bluff and we have to atatck, in that time when other part insists UKR offensive is a real and we need to prepare to defense. 

The thing you won’t hear much in the analysis of the Biden administration is how unlike previous administrations this one is on Russia. For starters, they figured out that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, decided that the US was going to support Kyiv and began relentlessly pushing European allies *in April* of 2021. Why different? It’s not just the level of pre-planning, it’s also that Biden uniquely among recent American presidents had absolutely zero misconceptions about VVP, the strategic understanding of what a fallen Ukraine would mean and what a policy guy I know calls “**** it” old man energy. He’s a 78 year old guy who isn’t trying to set up some post Presidential foundation or get rich or whatever. He is just doing Ukraine right with all the tools at his disposal. 
He’s certainly an older guy but if this is what old guys who trip on sandbags are like, I’ll take it.

yeah there are a lot of folks involved and yeah a lot of support from congress.  However the Biden admin is who made the call to release info to unmask Russia's preparations to invade so like it or not you have to give the man some credit.
And I would rather trip than have this embarrassing moment...

Biden's just carrying on a tradition.

 
 
 

Oh I don't know. He has been good enough on his feet to arrange the destruction of the Russian military with only 4% of the US military budget, thoroughly pantsed the GOP on the debt limit fight and Americans 25 to 54 are working at their highest rate since 2001.
If that's not fit, I'll take more unfitness please.

People trip. I'm less than half Biden's age and I rolled my ankle pretty good just this last weekend when I somehow managed to stumble while walking across completely flat, hard pavement. Gerald Ford pretty famously took a header down the stairs of Air Force One and he was in his early 60s at the time.

Have you seen the other guy? Person Woman Man Camera TV.

Hackers Force Putin’s Holy Man to ‘Bless’ Ukraine’s Counteroffensive (yahoo.com)
 
Ukraine definitely wins the world trolling competition.

A 'certain political party' threatens to send the US into default for spite about as regularly as Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons... for spite.

you win
Biden and McCarthy agree to raise the US debt ceiling (yahoo.com)

Reminds of the time a world leader showed a hurricane-track probability map.  That had been hand altered w a flippin' sharpie.  Yeah, A-team work, there. 
But the bigger point is yet again another preposterously amatuerish Putin-team propaganda stunt.  If I read this stuff in a novel I'd probably think "yeah, no one is that incompetent".  Yet here we are.  From the start he should've been sticking to a storyline of "This is an internal dispute, foreigners stay out.  Ukraine is a break away region of the Russia and we are simply putting down a local rebellion since the rebels have refused to stand down".  A local rebellion by 44M people who have been independent for 30 years, we would all say.  And Putin team would simply repeat their big lie, over and over, everywhere.  This aint rocket science (I did study a little bit of rocket science, this definitely aint it).

anyone who thinks we don't have a fascist problem because folks won't take down their confederate flag to put up a nazi one does not understand that in America, that confederate flag IS the nazi one.  Not specially a response to your comment Steve, but just to point out for folks that think Americans don't blatantly display fascist trappings ought to think twice.  
Getting this back to Ukraine, if I was in the UA and someone from America came and told me they were concerned about some unit in the UA having a patch that resembled a Nazi symbol I'd be scratching my head about that confederate flag I saw on TV being marched through the halls of congress on 1/6.
The History of Democracy: Fascist Movements in U.S. History | WKMS
 

The best moment for a rebellion in Belarus is exactly when the Russian army is in full retreat towards Crimea, and in a blind panic. Give them another problem a thousand kilometers away. If they commit the last of their reserves to Belarus, THAT is when it needs to get spicy on the streets of Moscow. Be great moment for a 'Secession movement" in Kaliningrad, too. 

Yes but this was fundamentally an expeditionary war of choice. B52s etc existed as alternatives.  Ukraine will never have such assets.
The Russian Army is and always will be vehicle centric force and the A10 is absolutely not a flying grad launcher. I certainly don't think its a God Of War or anything, but it's robust, adaptable and NATO ready.  I'm very certain the Ukrainian air force would find new and surprising ways to both Maximize its potential and add new tricks.
Coupled with a very robust AD system and capable ground forces,  I think it can add a very heavy punch at specific points. Yes some will get nailed, so what. Even if a bunch get nailed,  so what. The hole us made,  the reserves are done. Can you imagine what A10s would have done to that ridiculous convoy at the start of the War? 
The USAF doesn't want them because it's building into a 5th-6th gen force to counter China, which is 5th-ish.
Meanwhile Ukraine is at best 3rd-4th,  and so is its opponent. Cripes,  we're sending them Leo 1s and Scorpions,  for goodness sake. 
I think UKR is about to bend over the Russian in-theater AA/AD network and keep their face in the dirt for a good while. Once the Russians break in Ukraine,  that's when A10s would really amplify and enable ground ops. 
But this is all moot,  anyway. It's too late in the year for them to have effect.