DavidFields

Given his stance on Crimea and Donbas before 24th Feb, Navalny already is new Putin, he's just not in power yet.
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No, I'm sure Kraze is right - Ukraine and Yanukovich proves that a dictator will be overthrown when people don't like him enough. It immediately put into question any dictatorship around the world, past, present and future - showing if not proving, that dictators that don't get overthrown are actually doing what people want or at least are apathetic enough.
It is pretty bleak view of humanity of course.
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Russia getting away with this by Putin dying and Russia continuing with new leader without really changing anything, would be a terrible result. Even if their army will be in tatters and economy destroyed, they would still have nukes and they will still shoot down airliners, fund despicable political parties and manipulate social media to destroy democracies worldwide, assassinate people abroad and everything else they are doing.
I'm beginning to think that Russia falling apart as Galeev suggested in a bloody civil war might be the best case scenario for everyone except Russia. Which is pretty bleak thing to hope for.

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

Strong incel energy here.
Probus is right. Don't feed the trolls.

This is such a good example of psychological projection that you get points for comedy value.
Hyped up loser? Remind me who was supposed to be second strongest army in the world, and is now second strongest army in Ukraine? When you lose your job of online troll and get sent to war to die, be sure to tell your wife to bring her boyfriend to your funeral, okay?
EDIT: I know I shouldn't feed the troll, sorry, couldn't resist.

Say goodbye to your mom...

yeah unfortunately he survived the fall.  Guess even Satan didn't want him

But look at it from Russian point of view: Lithuania is obviously Russian territory. But it is full of uppity non-Russian serfs who should know their place, but instead they resist and pretend they have a country! The audacity! 
I'm curious how that would work. Lithuania is currently enforcing the EU sanctions. But as Steve said, they can also chose to close borders however they want - there are limits within the EU, but I'm pretty sure they don't owe Russia or Belarus access. They could actually turn it into a fully closed border and if Russia calls that blockade and wants to test Article 5, they can (we know they won't).

Fully agreed, EU has to redefine itself in next years if it is to accept new members. Parting with unanimity is needed - Poland should be OK with this I hope, if our history teaches us something, it is that liberum veto can easily destroy a democracy.
 
 

Really enjoyed this.
Nothing like hearing it from the horse's mouth.

Let them cut their damned gas. I'm sure alternatives will turn up. And it's a good lesson to NEVER rely on Russians again.

So it looks like the Russians are getting their act together.  We can only hope they're paying a heavy price and this is a temporary revival, caused by throwing everything they have left into battle. Not the news we were hoping for, but inevitable. Hopefully it is their Unternehmen Michael.

I can't believe anyone thinks after the fiasco of the past 120 days that Putin has a "long term" any plan.  Trashing your army and letting your economy sink into the pit isn't a plan for anything except someone deciding to vacate your skull.  Another 180 days of rolling t62s out of storage and watching all your precision weapons stocks, UAVs etc get increasingly scarce as Ukraine is rearming with NATO weapons...        This isn't a plan.  it maybe a hope, but only because it is his only option.

Hostomel was guarded with small number of personnel of 4th National Guard rapid reaction brigade. Russians seized airfield after almost all day clashes (but lost two helicopters over it and at least two more on approach). Because of mech. units were involved in fights northern, UKR forces had time to gather reinforcements and artillery and pushed off VDV (45th VDV spetsnaz brigade and 31st air-assault brigade - total 300 men in first wave) from airfield. But on next day first Russian mech.units arrived  as well as new wave of VDV, which came from Belarus on BMDs and other part probbaly again on helicopters, so after heavy fighting Russians took airfield again and seized it up to the April.    

This. When you look at all variables, there are two that scream out: Covid, and full Russian control over Belarus. I do suspect Covid and isolation played a role in terminally messing up Putin's already troubled psychology - just recall his 'Ukraine doesn't exist' speech right before the war. But it was Belarus that was the most significant geopolitical change since the annexation of Crimea. However, I will make a correction. 
It's even more recent than that - Putin took control only after the 2020-21 protests against Lukashenko were effectively suppressed.
Here's Lukashenko 'blasting' Putin in January 2020:
Belarus' leader blasts Russia for pushing merger of 2 states
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/belarus-leader-blasts-russia-for-pushing-merger-of-2-states-1.4782437?cache=mgxrihoykb%3FclipId%3D89925
"The president of Belarus on Friday accused Moscow of pressuring his country to merge with Russia, and vowed not to let it happen.
Talking to workers of a paper plant in eastern Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko lambasted Russia, the country's main provider of cheap oil and gas, for halting oil supplies in order "to dissolve Belarus ... in the brotherly Russia."
The statement comes amid stalled talks on further strengthening economic ties between two countries, seen in Belarus as Moscow's plot to swallow its post-Soviet neighbour.
"We have our own country, we're sovereign and independent. With our brains and hands, we earn what we can, we're building our own country. And we can't be a part of some other country," Lukashenko said. "I can't betray you and dissolve Belarus, even in the brotherly Russia."
Russia stopped supplying oil to its post-Soviet neighbour after Dec. 31. The two nations had failed to renegotiate an agreed oil price for this year during drawn-out negotiations on deepening the integration of their economies.
The Russian suspension did not affect oil crossing Belarus to Europe or the supply of natural gas, but had consequences for Belarus, which relies on Russia for more than 80% of its energy needs.
Lukashenko has since vowed to find alternative oil suppliers and said Friday that Belarus is currently negotiating additional supplies with the United States, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
Earlier this week, Minsk announced the import of oil shipments from Norway.
"Americans, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates... I have a brilliant relationship with them, they say they will supply as much oil as needed," Lukashenko said, insisting that his intention not to concede to Russia's demands is "not a bluff.""
And more 'blasting' from August 2020, when Belarus caught Wagner operatives on the eve of the elections:
Belarus ruler Lukashenko says Russia lying over 'mercenaries'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53648640
"Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has accused Russia of lying about a "mercenary" group arrested in Belarus last week and says another such group has infiltrated his country.
"Today we heard of another unit sent into the south," he said in an address to the nation. "We'll catch them all."
Russia has denied that the 33 Russians held were plotting terrorism and were linked to anti-Lukashenko activists.
Anti-Lukashenko protests have grown, as he seeks re-election on 9 August.
Russia has said the 33 - claimed to be members of the shadowy Wagner mercenary group - were only transiting via Belarus en route to Istanbul. And Russia insists they had no mission to interfere in the Belarus presidential election.
"All this about Istanbul, Venezuela, Africa and Libya - it's a lie. These people - they have already given testimony - were sent into Belarus on purpose. The order was to wait," Mr Lukashenko said, in his televised annual address.
He said the Russians could have flown directly to an overseas destination - there was no need for them to enter Belarus to do so.
"So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious," he alleged."
Thus, taking 25 March 2021 as the 'official' end of the protests as per Wikipedia, the invasion of Ukraine began one month short of one year after that date.

Indeed, I wonder if intelligence about Putin's plans informed the decision that it was time to go?

The idea that pulling out of Afghanistan was a sign of weakness was certainly a favorite trope for CNN journalists who made their careers there but what's never noted is that Afghanistan kept American resources (both diplomatic and military) tied up in a region that was completely removed from any strategic interest to the country. Worse, it forced the Pentagon into retaining a force structure that was not geared towards near peer warfare. 
The pullout was certainly not the US' finest hour but from a state competition standpoint, it was a net negative for Russia and China which would become more of a negative as the US reoriented globally. 

And this is why c3k is on my block list - I suggest you do the same  . Posting this sort of blatant propaganda in this  forum/thread is really just a sign of disrespect for the rest of us .

This is a lie. You know the level of knowledge about Ukraine present here.  Can’t believe you would try and trot this out in front of this crowd. Since everything else is just Fox News talking points also, I doubt there is any reason to address this in detail, but broadly:
-Biden worked to end corruption in Ukraine, carrying out the policy of the US and our European partners, including putting pressure on Ukraine to fire the prosecutor who WAS NOT actively pursuing an investigation of Burisma (which concerned issues predating Hunter Biden’s term on the Burisma, and so COULD NOT have been an investigation of H. Biden).
-Trump tried to extort a fake investigation of H. Biden by Ukraine for purely domestic US political purposes by threatening to withhold military aid, in direct contravention of US foreign policy.
If you don’t think the latter display of complete contempt for Ukraine on the part of the US didn’t play into Russia’s plans in Ukraine (which did not start out of the blue in Nov 2020), then I don’t know what to say.

This just seems to be the Ukrainian's key are of relative superiority. It may be that they just need to keep doing it. Slow and successful is better than fast and on fire.

It will if they concentrate forces, which is why the southern Ukrainian offensive is quite slow. They're mostly fighting by infiltrating in infantry forces, especially at night.

A reminder of how the world voted. No ifs or buts. We just can't do business with putin's Russia. 

What do you expect would happen? These people are not UA citizens, and came to UA territory without a valid visa. Any decisions regarding property sale/ transfers done by illegal authorities are by definition not binding. Crappy situation I admit, but it's all Uncle Vova's fault, sue him for reimbursement or something.

Honestly, I don't understand why you are surprised. Russia officially says that they run a special (genocide) operation in Ukraine and the goal is to denationalize/kill the Ukrainian nation. From the latest ones:


how Ukrainians should react on such plans?

They have a right to desire whatever they want. They do not have a right to do whatever they want in order to actualize that desire. They are allowed to want to be a great power. They are not allowed to invade a sovereign country to make that happen.

And that would entirely be on us in the West.  If we do crack and fold, well we deserve what happens next and maybe we should not be holding the pen that writes the global order. 
We (the West) are the military industrial complex for the Ukraine - we committed to that pretty early on.  Ukraine has demonstrated that they will fight, we need to demonstrate that we will back them until the job is done. 
I am not sure how potentially losing a tiny berg in the Donbas is somehow shaking everyone's resolve.  I swear the online tone is as jumpy as the prettiest goat at an Afghan barn orgy right now.  "Oh no, we have lost Severdonetsk!  The war is lost!!"  Why? Because the Russians actually managed to get a very costly tactical win?  A win that is unlikely to go anywhere?
The UA is collapsing!!!!  Really?  Where is that coming from?  Based on Russian rates of advance, we in the west have clearly forgotten what an operational collapse actually looks like, which is really weird as we just saw the Russians do one in March.  Ukraine is hurting right now but there is a whole lotta country besides the Donbas and for every day the Russians are burning resources, Ukraine has an opportunity to make more.
We, in the West, are either in this to win it - which includes, at least: continuing to backstop UA force generation, building/funding a Ukraine internal military industrial complex for a long war and re-construction of the country after this is all over.  Hell we did this in spades in Afghanistan...FFS!  And the global stakes are orders of magnitude higher in this war than that "interesting adventure".
Or we get ready to accept that we have pissed away billions, fracture and withdraw support, and live what happens next.
There is no "easy out", or hedge fund strategy here...this is war.  You do not take the Last Argument of Kings option lightly and to steal from Stephen King, we will have forgotten the faces of our fathers if we fail on this one.