Eddy

Let's talk about the Russian economy. The following are notes from an interview with RU economist Milov. This is the point of view of the RU Liberals, but it is backed up by proof.
 

While I'm here, the Russian economy is literally dying. Due to skyrocketing prices and their reserve fund, they were able to weather the initial storm until Mobilization. But, with mobilization and the implementation of price caps, the RU economy became a sick man with no hope of recovery. Most likely forever.
I'll provide some notes on the health of the Russian economy soon.

A response from Mick Ryan regarding the reports of the Russians modifying their assault tactics
Basically, he's comparing it to the German Stormtroopers of 1918 and positing that without changes to the operational level it won't make that much of a big picture difference. If there is no capability to exploit, then 'chopping a hole' as Ludendorff called it will lead to nothing. And he doubts that RA will be able to create the capability as it's not just equipment that would be needed, but training, changes to doctrine etc, etc. which is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a war. And of course the Ukrainian have a say as well.

I read Aimee Fox's book after hearing her speak at a Western Front Association meeting and found it similarly recalled to mind during current events; in the context of just how hard it is to change your doctrine on the fly during a shooting war.  It's also worth noting that, in the end, the BEF and French armies pretty much gave up on trying to bring about deep strategic breakthroughs, recognising that logistics and technology didn't permit them. They got their late war results by breaking into the defences while staying within their own artillery range  and leaving the Germans the options of retreating or making a costly counter-attack. I don't think the Russians have the capability even  to do the break in bit. I suspect their operational art has regressed to about 1915.

Good point. I hadn't even considered the strategic level as I don't think the RA will be able to do the learning at the operational level. Not necessarily because 'Russia sux' but because it is so difficult to do, especially while fighting a war. 
I recently re-read Dr Aimee Fox's Learning to Fight about how the British & Dominion armies went about learning in the FWW and the complexities of it - vertical vs horizontal, formal vs informal, Western front vs other fronts, exercise vs pamphlet etc. They had to try to overcome pre-war prejudices, snobbery between fronts (Western Front thought they had nothing to learn from other fronts), snobbery from British towards Canadian and Australian, traditional vs modern, learning the wrong lessons etc. They just about managed it but it took four years. And despite what can be garnered from Blackadder, those armies were open-minded, keen to learn organisations (well most of them). 
The long and short of it, I got from that book that learning on the job in a war is bloody difficult and complex. 

A response from Mick Ryan regarding the reports of the Russians modifying their assault tactics
Basically, he's comparing it to the German Stormtroopers of 1918 and positing that without changes to the operational level it won't make that much of a big picture difference. If there is no capability to exploit, then 'chopping a hole' as Ludendorff called it will lead to nothing. And he doubts that RA will be able to create the capability as it's not just equipment that would be needed, but training, changes to doctrine etc, etc. which is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a war. And of course the Ukrainian have a say as well.

This is correct. It took the widespread integration of vehicles with the internal combustion engine to exploit tactical gaps in the Allied lines. Not ready in WW1. But in WW2, they brought German troops and supplies forward to critical points faster than the enemy could by foot, rail or horse. This is one key component of 'blitzkrieg". However, this could be defeated by strategic depth even by less mobile forces like the Soviets in 41-42. So even if the RA today can modify its tactics, it still has to maintain momentum into the strategic depth of sector they intend to capture. Fortunately, the RA lack the logistic robustness to do so and Ukraine has plenty of strategic depth to utilize in parrying offensives should they breakthrough.  

A response from Mick Ryan regarding the reports of the Russians modifying their assault tactics
Basically, he's comparing it to the German Stormtroopers of 1918 and positing that without changes to the operational level it won't make that much of a big picture difference. If there is no capability to exploit, then 'chopping a hole' as Ludendorff called it will lead to nothing. And he doubts that RA will be able to create the capability as it's not just equipment that would be needed, but training, changes to doctrine etc, etc. which is difficult at the best of times, let alone in a war. And of course the Ukrainian have a say as well.

It has the best rundown of the state of Russia's forces, and force generation efforts that I have seen. I think the best way to watch it would be with Jomni's latest set of maps in another window. Thet seem to generally agree, and Jomini has lot more detail on the map.
They are also in full agreement with my ongoing rant that Ukraine needs more help, and faster to win this thing this summer, instead of giving Putin eighteen months to find and train some semblance of a competent army.

It's also available on YT here if that's more convenient:
I'm about half way through but so far it is well worth the watch

Not sure if this has been posted yet but I found this a fascinating read about the build up and first few days from within the US administration (plus some little bits from the UKs worst ever Prime Minister) in their own words
‘Something Was Badly Wrong’: When Washington Realized Russia Was Actually Invading Ukraine - POLITICO

To add to the discussion on Russia's economy:
Starts with a short discussion of the Chinese FM visit to Moscow and Putin being forced to use the 'small table'! Then goes on to the Russian economy, before the war, during and what's to come.
Worth watching it all I think but the interesting points for me are:
Around about May and June Russia was raking it in because the energy shock pushed prices so high but this has now stopped. Russian exports of oil now have a price ceiling and the buyers have no incentive whatsoever to pay more than that ceiling. Russia is not making any money i.e. it's not covering it's costs and the price of a barrel of Ural oil is 35% down on a barrel of Brent. And it's not selling hardly any gas to Europe anymore so that income stream has dried up. So in effect there is no income and Russia is relying on it's savings account i.e. the National Wealth Fund. So Russia is tapping into it's national wealth fund. This has fallen since the start of the year from 12% of Russian GDP to 7% If that carries on Russia Govt. completely runs out of money in 3.5 years (I don't follow his maths here. To me it's sooner than that) But that's only if the events are linear, could burn through the fund faster )or slower I guess) Like I say, don't understand how he got to 3.5 years before that fund runs out.

Correct. The only currency that could possibly rival the dollar as the reserve currency in the near future (like years away) is the Euro and for a number of reasons that's not going to happen. As for the Yuan, it's not traded enough, CCP have this big sovereignty control thing over their currency and there are trust issues.
As for crypto, it's an asset class similar to gold not a currency.

Not sure if this has been posted yet but I found this a fascinating read about the build up and first few days from within the US administration (plus some little bits from the UKs worst ever Prime Minister) in their own words
‘Something Was Badly Wrong’: When Washington Realized Russia Was Actually Invading Ukraine - POLITICO

the problem there is no one trusts the Chinese gov't regarding their currency and willingness to alter valuation.  Russia might conceivably buy in for lack of choice, but no other sane currency manager is going to.

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

Second time for three days explosions heard in Mariupol. Allegedly Russian ammo dump was hit in the port area and the enemy base or storage on "Ilyich" steelworks. No information about what weapon was used. Some Russian propagandists claimed these were GLDSB
Today Ukrainian MoD press-secreter made a statement that "the time is came, when enemy military targets in Mariupol are no more unreachable place for Ukraianian strikes"
Recently there were several strikes on Berdiansk area with usage of probably long-range kamikadze-drones and several unsuccessful strikes with Tochka-U (all were intercepted)
In theory, UKR HIMARS could hit "Ilyich" steelworks, firing from Vuhledar - Novomyhailivka section, but already port is out of range. UKR also could use upgraded "Vil'kha-M" missiles, but since its didn't pass tests in 2021 there wasn't any info about them. UKR episodically used only first version of Smerch upgrade - "Vill'kha" missile (without "M") with range in 70 km.

Just listened to the often excellent Ukraine: the Latest podcast. They are quoting a Western defence official (probably British but that's just my guess) stating that the casualty figures are at least 100K Ukrainians, 200k Russian. Those figures are comprised of killed, missing, wounded and taken prisoner. 
An important bit is the mortality rate. The official stated (according to them) that the mortality rate for Ukrainian is between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20, whereas the Russian mortality rate is 1 in 3.
So according to the quote that would be between 5k and 10K Ukrainian dead versus approx. 66K Russian. 
Must admit I'm taking the 1 in 20 with a pinch of salt but what do I know?
Can be found here (I've copied at the time they're talking about this so you don't have to wade through an hour!) :
First reporter fluffs his numbers at first btw

Just listened to the often excellent Ukraine: the Latest podcast. They are quoting a Western defence official (probably British but that's just my guess) stating that the casualty figures are at least 100K Ukrainians, 200k Russian. Those figures are comprised of killed, missing, wounded and taken prisoner. 
An important bit is the mortality rate. The official stated (according to them) that the mortality rate for Ukrainian is between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20, whereas the Russian mortality rate is 1 in 3.
So according to the quote that would be between 5k and 10K Ukrainian dead versus approx. 66K Russian. 
Must admit I'm taking the 1 in 20 with a pinch of salt but what do I know?
Can be found here (I've copied at the time they're talking about this so you don't have to wade through an hour!) :
First reporter fluffs his numbers at first btw

Exellent documental film "Battle for Chernihiv". For this time this is most detailed thing. The same team recently made film "Battle for Kyiv", but it turned out too weak in part of facts or describing of actions. But film about Chernihiv is really cool - it removes some blank spots, but I hope, after the war we will know much more. 
First version of this film was only in UKR, now ENG subs have appeared - you can turn them on during watching
Part 1:
Part 2
Part 3
 

I had the pleasure to attend this talk by Prof. Michael Clarke a couple of weeks ago.
He's an ex-RUSI Director General and active academic.  No breaking news here but a good summary including some interesting historical background and global context. 
The video didn't include the Q&A afterwards which went a little off the rails with one audience member saying she was scared of getting nuked and that we should have a dialog with Russia 😬.  He responded by acknowledging that it was possible that the fighting stops with some never ending negotiations about Crimea/Donbas but seemed to portray this as a rather bleak future.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Some of you may have noticed that I've poked my head up again after a very long absence. I've just been very busy with real life and wanted to spend some time playing games rather than designing content. But this game is a bit like crack for me, it's just so addictive and watching Usually Hapless play this campaign on Youtube got me back into it. (Yes, it's ALL your fault Hapless  )
I've done a bit of work fixing things and now want to turn my attention to my first campaign for CMBN, the Montebourg campaign. It's the oldest and was made using v1.0 of the engine meaning that there are only 8 AI groups and no air support. There have also been a number of changes to the game which mean that I can experiment with some of the new stuff while reworking this one.
It's not going to be a total overhaul but it will no longer work for players with only the CMBN base game so it's a Repository jobbie. I'll let you guys know what you'll need but it will probably require the full Monty as I want flamethrowers in it. It's also worth saying that anything new in it will be historically accurate and not just added in for the laughs. So no SS with JgPZIVs. Pity.
So, I'll keep you up to date with my progress on this. I'm not looking to do a LOT of work. It's mainly to reacquaint myself with the scenario designer and writing AI plans.
 
Mission 1
I have no plans to change anything at all about the opening mission at all. It's fine as is.
Mission 2
There is a 'new' short 'Brecourt' mission. It's not really new though as it was in the revised version on the Repository. I'll need to tweak this one as the game seems to have become more lethal since I last played it but otherwise, it's good to go.
Mission 3
The first mission to get a full rework is Turnbull's Stand. I'm reworking the AI attack as there were only two AI plans and they were terrible. I've made a number of revisions to the map itself to reflect the reality of the day so it's a bit more open with less bocage and more hedges.
I've spent pretty much all morning and most of the afternoon learning how to script an AI attack using the new tools and the first AI plan is almost done. I want a second one with an entirely different focus but it should be much faster to do as I'm not 'learning' anymore. Then, I'll mix it up so that there's four attack plans.
 
And that's where I'm up to. There's no timetable on this. I'm not in any hurry but by posting about it here, I've kind of declared my intentions and am far more likely to stick with it.

Which can be found here ‘We killed three Russians’: the secretive Ukrainian special forces taking the fight across the border | Ukraine | The Guardian

Oh bloody hell, do we have to scroll pages and pages of blather about these kinds of empty headed attention seekers now?
What the hell does this have to do with the war?
This entire thread can drown very quickly in American and EU political yabbida yabbida yabbida.  There's no freeking end to it.
Go watch Tucker and Rachel or whoever.